全球汽车行业高管调查.pdf

Will they choose the right road? leaders prepare to seize big opportunities23rd Annual Global Automotive Executive SurveyForewordThe 23rd edition of the KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey comes at a momentous time for the industry.Every facet of automotive from product development,to manufacturing,to supply chains and the customer experience is undergoing profound changes,driven by the powerful convergence of the automotive and technology sectors.A year ago,automotive executives sensed a change was coming and the future was theirs to seize.In the latest survey,translated into 20 languagesmore than 900 executives in 30 countries remain optimistic,but the mood is tempered by realism.The exciting future is no longer theoreticalmore than half a trillion dollars have been committed to developing a dazzling array of new vehicles built in advanced manufacturing facilities.They are investing in electric-battery plants,semiconductors,autonomous systems,software,and electronics.(Readers can go to our website to interact with the data and view graphical results by country,company type,and job title.)To deliver on the promise of those billions of investments,car companies will take many roads to their destination.Some roads will lead to success,others could end in abject failure.To enable executives to navigate the future,the survey findings help frame some strategic questions:Should we go it alone,form alliances,or do joint ventures?With whom and why?How should we allocate capital among our different powertrain ecosystems?What role will contract manufacturing play in the future of the industry?What does a reimagined customer experience look like?How important should autonomous systems be to our strategy?These and other questions are growing more urgent by the day,as competition intensifies.For some,the answer is the status quo.For others,it is diversification and being a fast follower.For still others,the path is to be bold and go all-in with new operating models.Strategic flexibility has never been more important.So yes,some roads will lead to success and others will end in failure.For the executives who responded to our survey,the future is in their hands.Gary Silberg Global Head of Automotive KPMG International2 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Main findings The global outlook Auto executives are more optimistic than in 2021 about the prospects for long-term,profitable growth.Eighty-three percent are confident of higher profits over the next five years,compared with 53 percent in 2021.They have become more cautious about near-term results,however,given the headwinds facing the global economy:76 percent are concerned that inflation and high interest rates will adversely affect their business in 2023.Future of powertrains Expectations of global electric vehicle(EV)sales in 2030 are becoming more realistic.In 2021,executives predicted that EVs would capture between 20 percent and 70 percent of the market by 2030.Now they are taking a more cautious view of the challenges of shifting to battery power,with forecasts varying from 10 percent to around 40 percent of sales by 2030.Specifically,executives have greatly tempered their expectations about EV sales growth in India(poor infrastructure),Brazil(biofuels as an alternative)and Japan(a focus on hybrid and energy sources other than batteries).There is,though,more confidence that EVs will achieve cost parity with internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles without government help.Eighty-two percent believe that in the next 10 years EVs can be adopted widely without subsidies.And 21 percent,three times the proportion in 2021,do not think governments should provide any direct consumer subsidies for EVs.Digital consumers With the proliferation of new models,entrants,and technologies,executives believe consumer buying decisions in the next five years will focus on driving performance and brand image.Data privacy and security are also key factors in purchase decisions.Car customers are expected to shop increasingly online,opening opportunities for manufacturers to sell directly to consumers,as well as online through dealerships.Traditional e-commerce players will also compete for car purchasers.New technologies and new entrants Many executives think Apple will enter the car market and become a leader in EVs by 2030,moving to fourth place in the survey from ninth in 2021Tesla is expected to remain the market leader in EVs.Whichever company becomes the leader,nine in 10 executives say start-ups will have a sizeable effect on the auto industry.More than one in five say they are extremely likely to sell non-strategic parts of their businesses,given the massive investments required to compete.Contract manufacturing will become even more strategic going forward.Vulnerable supply chains Executives remain very concerned about supplies of commodities and components,especially semiconductors,as well as items such as electrical steel and lightweight materials that are crucial to increase fuel efficiency and extend battery range.In response to the vulnerability of supplies,car makers are focusing on near-shoring and on-shoring,in an effort to reduce their reliance on only one or two countries.Auto executives are very optimistic about the prospects for after-sale revenues.Sixty-two percent are very confident that consumers will be willing to pay monthly subscription fees for software services such as EV charging,car-maintenance analytics,advanced driver assistance,and other over-the-air updates.Executives think automakers continue to see the insurance market as a key growth opportunity,but they have shifted focus from competing against insurers to partnering with them or selling them data.3 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.The global outlookAuto executives are very optimistic that the billions spent on investments in new factories and powertrains are going to yield big dividends.Eighty-three percent are confident that the industry will achieve more profitable growth over the next five years versus today.In 2021,only 53 percent were as confident.Now car companies have to deliver on the promise,and executives know they will face multiple challenges.Obstacles include skills shortages,uncertain supplies of materials and components,a troubled geopolitical picture,and tough macroeconomic conditions.Seventy-six percent or respondents are concerned that inflation and high interest rates will adversely affect their business in 2023,compared with only 14 percent who are not.There are significant differences in expectations.In the near term,net sentiment(those concerned/optimistic minus those who arent)varies from 18 percent at one extreme to 93 percent at the other.Executives in China are the least concerned,while the rest of Asia and North America are more concerned,by a large margin.Interact with the dataTo see how expectations differ from one market to the next:Explore nowIf the workforce in the tech industry continues to shrink,this is a golden opportunity for auto-makers to acquire skills in crucial areas,such as development of future connectivity,including transport data,end-to-end user experience and secure mobile communications.”James Walker,Automotive Principal,KPMG in the US4 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Future of powertrainsIn just one year,the outlook has changed appreciably.The survey in 2021 showed that auto executives were very optimistic about the prospects for global EV sales.They estimated that EVs could capture as much as 70 percent of the market share by 2030.Since then,the top estimates have fallen to around 40 percent,which still indicates confidence.The range of forecasts has narrowed,too.The decline in the estimate of EV penetration was particularly noticeable in India,Brazil,and Japan.Indias infrastructure challenges mean that EV demand is likely to be much lower for cars than for two-and three-wheeled vehicles,which are not part of the survey.Brazil may focus less on electrification and more on alternative fuel,such as ethanol.And Japans leading car manufacturers are likely to continue emphasizing hybrid vehicles and other potential energy sources such as hydrogen.The closer the expert is to the customer,the lower the EV share expectations seem to be.For example,US executives say car dealers expect EVs to capture 22 percent of the market by 2030,eight percentage points less than OEMs predict.One reason for the overall reassessment is that automakers are confronting the sheer complexity of shifting the industry from internal combustion engines to batteries.It will affect every facet of the value chain,not just the sourcing of raw materials.It will change every step of the product lifecycle:the way the cars are made,how they are distributed,fueled(recharged),and serviced.By 2030,what percentage of new vehicles sales do you believe will be battery-powered(excluding hybrids)within each market?100806040200%of ChargingDistribution by MarketBrazilChinaIndiaJapanU.S.WesternEuropeDistribution of votesMedian valueMean value100806040200%of ChargingDistribution by MarketBrazilChinaEuropeIndiaJapanU.S.Distribution of votesMedian valueMean value20212022Source:KPMG International The automotive industry faces challenges with high energy prices alongside a potential economic slowdown.There will be pressure to postpone investments that would reduce carbon footprint,but automakers need to stay focused on the importance of a long-term carbon-free future and make strategic investments in these new technologies.”Laurent Des Places,Partner,Head of Automotive,KPMG in France5 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Underlying these EV sales expectations are some key predictions based on a growing confidence among manufacturers in the economics of EV car production.This can be attributed in part to the billions of dollars that have been invested in new plants and R&D.As EV output expands,costs are expected to fall due to economies of scale.Seventy percent of respondents expect that EVs will reach cost parity with ICE vehicles by 2030 without subsidies.More than 80 percent of executives surveyed believe that EVs will achieve widespread adoption without government subsidies in the next 10 years.And the proportion in 2021 or respondents who do not agree that governments should provide direct consumer subsidies for EVs was 21 percent,three times the share in 2021.Such subsidies often distort markets and tend to complicate international trade.Some 78 percent say subsidies should be phased out at car prices ranging from$30,000-plus to$70,000-plus.When do you believe battery electric vehicles will reach cost/affordability parity with ICE without any subsidies?20212022Dont knowThey already haveBy 2025By 2030By 2035After 2035Never0%2%9%9%27%37%37%20%6%7%1%0%21%24%Do you believe battery-electric vehicles can achieve widespread adoption in the next 10 years without government intervention?20212022Yes77%82%21%15%2%3%NoDontknowSome governments are providing direct consumer subsidies for battery-electric vehicles.Do you agree with this policy?91%75%20212022Yes21%7%2%4%NoDontknowSource:KPMG International With automakers placing huge bets on the future of EVs,they have to make them pay off.With this transformation,they must transition their workforce skills to align with the new direction and collaborate closely with partners to maximize the benefits for their ecosystem.”Andreas Ries,Automotive Partner,KPMG in Germany 6 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.20212022No,all battery electric vehicles should be subsidized35%30%31%8%1%1%17%33%23%21%Yes,subsidies shouldphased out above$70,000Yes,subsidies shouldphased out above$50,000Yes,subsidies shouldphased out above$30,000Dont knowIf yes,should the subsidies be phased out for vehicles above a certain vehicle price?Perceptions of the infrastructure challenge are also shifting,as more government money is allocated for charging stations.While executives still think most charging will take place at consumer homes,a rising proportion of executives say owners will park at public charging stations,at work,or on the street.There is more clarity about what the charging technology can do.More executives in 2022 expected consumers to wait longer for an 80 percent recharge than in 2021.Also,26 percent say consumers would be willing to wait 45 minutes,eight percentage points more than in 2021.The proportion who believe consumers will only accept a 20-minute wait fell from 27 percent to 17 percent.30%23%22%18%18%20%15%17%15%16%6%0%Dont knowSingle familyhome/garagePublic or privatecharging stationsApartment garageor parking lotAt workOn the streetIn your home country,where will owners charge their battery-electric vehicles?Source:KPMG International While traveling and running low on battery charge,how long will the typical consumer be willing to wait for an 80 percent or greater charge?9%27%41%43%18%26%6%8%17%6%10 minutes20 minutes30 minutes45 minutes60 minutesTotal does not add to 100%due to rounding202120227 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Auto executives still expect Tesla will be the market leader in battery-powered vehicles in 2030,the same as in 2021,but by a much narrower margin.One interesting change:Apple is now in fourth place,having risen from ninth position in 2021,even though it has not yet produced or even announced a single car.BYD of China looks to be another strong contender.Auto executives will be watching closely for new entrants,because the field remains wide open.Looking out to 2030,which of the following companies do you think will be the market leaders in electric vehicles?418238165155140134124121914644Ranking:1 2TeslaBMWAppleFordHondaBYDHyundai-KiaMercedes-BenzToyotaVWGroupFisker0100200300400500223TeslaAudiBMWApple FordHonda BYD Hyundai-KiaMercedes-BenzToyota Baidu Fisker2061961331281061017878554234Ranking:1 205010015020025020212022Source:KPMG International 8 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Digital consumersCar buyers have an unprecedented array of choices for EVs.Auto makers have announced investments of more than$500 billion in EV programs and 160 new EV models are slated for the global market in the next four years.More than 50 new manufacturers are jostling