平准化能源成本（2024版）.pdf

L E V E L I Z E D C O S T O F E N E R G Y+W I T H S U P P O R T F R O MJ u n e 2 0 2 4Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARYLAZARDS LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSISVERSION 17.0LAZARDS LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 9.0LAZARDS LEVELIZED COST OF HYDROGEN ANALYSISVERSION 4.0APPENDIXLCOE v17.0LCOS v9.0LCOH v4.0IIIIIIIV37182630ABC314045Executive SummaryCopyright 2024 Lazard This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only,and it is not intended to be,and should not be construed as,financial or other advice.No part of this material may be copied,photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.(1)This analysis has been compiled using U.S.-focused data.Executive SummaryLevelized Cost of Energy Version 17.0(1)The results of our Levelized Cost of Energy(“LCOE”)analysis reinforce what we observe across the Power,Energy&Infrastructure Industrysizable and well-capitalized companies that can take advantage of supply chain and other economies of scale,and that have strong balance sheet support to weather fluctuations in the macro environment,will continue leading the build-out of new renewable energy assets.This is particularly true in a rising LCOE environment like what we have observed in this years analysis.Amplifying this observation,and not overtly covered in our report,are the complexities related to currently observed demand growth and grid-related constraints,among other factors.Key takeaways from Version 17.0 of Lazards LCOE include:1.Low End LCOE Values Increase;Overall Ranges Tighten Despite high end LCOE declines for selected renewable energy technologies,the low ends of our LCOE have increased for the first time ever,driven by the persistence of certain cost pressures(e.g.,high interest rates,etc.).These two phenomena result in tighter LCOE ranges(offsetting the significant range expansion observed last year)and relatively stable LCOE averages year-over-year.The persistence of elevated costs continues to reinforce the central theme noted abovesizable and well-capitalized companies that can take advantage of supply chain and other economies of scale,and that have strong balance sheet support to weather fluctuations in the macro environment,will continue leading the build-out of new renewable energy assets.2.Baseload Power Needs Will Require Diverse Generation FleetsDespite the sustained cost-competitiveness of renewable energy technologies,diverse generation fleets will be required to meet baseload power needs over the long term.This is particularly evident in todays increasing power demand environment driven by,among other things,the rapid growth of artificial intelligence,data center deployment,reindustrialization,onshoring and electrification.As electricity generation from intermittent renewables increases,the timing imbalance between peak customer demand and renewable energy production is exacerbated.As such,the optimal solution for many regions is to complement new renewable energy technologies with a“firming”resource such as energy storage or new/existing and fully dispatchable generation technologies(of which CCGTs remain the most prevalent).This observation is reinforced by the results of this years marginal cost analysis,which shows an increasing price competitiveness of existing gas-fired generation as compared to new-build renewable energy technologies.As such,and as has been noted in our historic reports,the LCOE is just the starting point for resource planning and has always reinforced the need for a diversity of energy resources,including but not limited to renewable energy.3.Innovation Is Critical to the Energy TransitionContinuous innovation across technology,capital formation and policy is required to fully enable the Energy Transition,which we define to include a generation mix that is diverse and advanced enough to meet the ongoing reshaping of our energy economy.The Energy Transition will also require continued maturation of selected technologies not included in our analysis(e.g.,carbon capture,utilization and sequestration(“CCUS”),long duration energy storage,new nuclear technologies,etc.).While the results of this years LCOE reinforce our previous conclusionsthe cost-competitiveness of renewables will lead to the continued displacement of conventional generation and an evolving energy mixthe timing of such displacement and composition of such mix will be impacted by many factors,including those outside of the scope of our LCOE(e.g.,grid investment,permitting reform,transmission queue reform,economic policy,continued advancement of flexible load and locally sited generation,etc.).I E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y4Copyright 2024 Lazard This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only,and it is not intended to be,and should not be construed as,financial or other advice.No part of this material may be copied,photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.Executive SummaryLevelized Cost of Storage Version 9.0(1)The results of our Levelized Cost of Storage(“LCOS”)analysis reinforce what we observe across the Power,Energy&Infrastructure Industryenergy storage system(“ESS”)applications are becoming more valuable,well understood and,by extension,widespread as grid operators begin adopting methodologies to value these resources leading to increased transaction activity and infrastructure classification for the ESS asset class.Key takeaways from Version 9.0 of Lazards LCOS include:1.Increased LCOS VariabilityWhile we saw incremental declines in the low end LCOS as compared to last years analysis,the high end increased more noticeably,resulting in a wider range of LCOS outcomes across the operational parameters analyzed.The decline on the low end was,in part,driven by a noticeable decline in cell prices resulting from increased manufacturing capacity in China and decreased mineral pricing.However,this was offset by significant increases in engineering,procurement and construction(“EPC”)pricing driven,in part,by high demand,increased timeline scrutiny,skilled labor shortages and prevailing wage requirements.Also notable is the increased impact of economies of scale benefits in procurement,mirroring the observations we have seen in the LCOE in recent years.2.The Power of the IRA Is Clear Despite the significant increases in wholesale pricing for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide observed from 2022 to 2023,the IRAs grant of ITC eligibility for standalone ESS assets kept LCOS v8.0 values relatively neutral as compared to LCOS v7.0.One year later,for this years LCOS v9.0,ITC implementation,including the application of energy community adders,is fully underway and the impacts are clear.The ITC,along with lower cell pricing and technology improvements,is leading to an increasing trend of oversizing battery capacity to offset future degradation and useful life considerations,which is not only extending useful life expectations but is also increasing residual value and overall project returns.While the ITC and energy community adder are prevalent,the domestic content adder remains uncertain,notwithstanding the various domestic manufacturing announcements.The lack of clarity related to qualifying for local content is leading to longer lead times and higher contingencies.Adding to this overall complexity is the recently proposed increase of Section 301 import tariffs on lithium-ion batteries,which many believe will lead to increased domestic battery supply but with uncertain costs results.3.Lithium-Ion Batteries Remain DominantLithium-ion batteries remain the most cost competitive short-term(i.e.,2 4-hour)storage technology,given,among other things,a mature supply chain and global market demand.Lithium-ion,however,is not without its challenges.For example,safety remains a concern for utilities and commercial&industrial owners,particularly in urban areas,and longer-duration lithium-ion use cases can have challenging economic profiles.As such,industry participants have started progressing non-lithium-based technology solutions,including for longer-duration use cases and applications.Such technologies are targeting new market segments,including industrial applications,data center deployments and ultra-long duration applications in regions with high penetration of intermittent renewable energy.However,the development of long duration energy storage still requires clear demonstration of the commercial operation of these technologies,market maturation(including the development of stronger incentives for long duration projects that could capture capacity revenues in merchant and bilateral markets)and manufacturing scale to realize(long-promised)cost reductions,all resulting in greater willingness of insurance and financing participants to underwrite these projects.(1)This analysis has been compiled using U.S.-focused data.I E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y5Copyright 2024 Lazard This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only,and it is not intended to be,and should not be construed as,financial or other advice.No part of this material may be copied,photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.Hydrogen continues to be regarded as a potential solution for industrial processes that will be difficult to decarbonize through other existing technologies or alternatives.Hydrogen production in the U.S.primarily comes from fossil fuels through steam-methane reforming(“SMR”)and methane splitting processes resulting in“gray”hydrogen.The cost of the equipment(i.e.,the“electrolyzer”)and the source of the electricity(i.e.,wind-and solar-derived electricity for“green”hydrogen,nuclear-derived electricity for“pink”hydrogen,etc.)continue to have the greatest impact on the levelized cost of hydrogen production.Key takeaways from Version 4.0 of Lazards Levelized Cost of Hydrogen(“LCOH”)analysis include:1.A Maturing Industry Drives Declining Costs Observable declines in the results of our LCOH analysis indicate that the hydrogen electrolyzer industry is continuing to mature and will likely scale over time.Proton Exchange Membrane(“PEM”)and Alkaline electrolyzers are the dominant technologies,but their higher costs relative to currently available alternatives(e.g.,renewables+BESS,dispatchable gas-fired generation,etc.)hinder significant market expansion.Notably,there is a considerable price disparity across the market for electrolyzer equipment,which would be more overtly pronounced had this report included electrolyzers manufactured in China given the significantly lower price expectations.Despite this price disparity,Western-supplied electrolyzers and related equipment remain competitive given the greater level of performance validation and freedom from the potential risks of tariff and trade implications.2.Uncertainty Around IRA ImplementationImplementation challenges for hydrogen projects vary dramatically by markets and use cases.In the U.S.,project developers are waiting for final guidance from the Treasury Department on the IRA 45(V)tax credit to provide clarity on which projects qualify for the production subsidy(up to$3 per kilogram of hydrogen).A key concern for project developers is how the production costs for green hydrogen will be impacted by hourly matching requirements which would stipulate that renewable power production must occur in the same hour as hydrogen production.Hourly matching requirements would likely lead to an increase in the results of our LCOH due to higher renewable power development costs and lower electrolyzer utilization rates.Final guidance from the Treasury Department may impact the competitiveness and adoption rate for green hydrogen relative to alternatives such as“blue”hydrogen(i.e.,hydrogen produced from fossil fuels with CCUS).3.Use Case Analysis Is Critical While the scope of our LCOH remains focused on the cost of production,we plan to broaden the LCOH in the coming years to evaluate various use cases(similar to the expansion of our LCOS analysis and the related“Value Snapshots”).We continue to see growing interest from key hydrogen off-takers in the chemicals industry(e.g.,ammonia for use in fertilizer)and demand is expected to continue increasing for fuels produced from clean hydrogen to help decarbonize transportation sectors(e.g.,maritime).In addition,several companies in hard-to-abate industrial sectors(e.g.,steel,construction materials,etc.)are considering hydrogen as an alternative to fossil fuels for some heat-generating applications.Although the technology is broadly available,using hydrogen for power generation(or blending it with natural gas)will likely require capital-intensive upgrades to current generation assets,storage facilities and pipelines to protect the legacy infrastructure and avoid leakages.Executive SummaryLevelized Cost of Hydrogen Version 4.0(1)(1)This analysis has been compiled using U.S.-focused data.I E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y6Lazards Levelized Cost of Energy AnalysisVersion 17.0Copyright 2024 Lazard This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only,and it is not intended to be,and should not be construed as,financial or other advice.No part of this material may be copied,photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.Introduction Lazards Levelized Cost of Energy analysis addresses the following topics:Comparative LCOE analysis for various generation technologies on a$/MWh basis,including sensitivities for U.S.federal tax subsidies,fuel prices,carbon pricing and cost of capitalIllustration of how the LCOE of onshore wind,utility-scale solar and hybrid projects compare to the marginal cost of selected conventional generation technologies Illustration of how the LCOE of onshore wind,utility-scale solar and hybrid projects,plus the cost of firming intermittency in various regions,compares to the LCOE of selected conventional generation technologiesHistorical LCOE comparison of various technologies Illustration of the historical LCOE declines for onshore wind and utility-scale solar Appendix materials,including:Deconstruction of the LCOE for various generation technologies by capital cost,fixed operations and maintenance(“O&M”)expense,variable O&M expense and fuel costAn overview of the methodology utilized to prepare Lazards LCOE analysisA summary of the assumptions utilized in Lazards LCOE analysisOther factors would also have a potentially significant effect on the results contained herein,but have not been examined in the scope of this current analysis.These additional factors,among others,may include:implementation and interpretation of the full scope of the IRA;economic policy,transmission queue ref