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The battle against climate change30 years of successes and failures in EuropeIndianapolis,September 2007Presentation1Successfully greenRoland Berger is an international strategy consultancy,with extensive experience in green issues for energy companies&policy makers Roland Berger experience with green issuesVALUE CHAINISSUESFuelGenerationTrans-mission&DistributionRetailCarbon tradingRenewables marketingWind energySolar energyBiomass&BiofuelsCHPSETTING THE SCENESource:Roland Berger2Successfully greenWhen I met Mr Simcox at a reception in London he asked me if I could provide our perspective on how Europe became(or stayed?)green4.2Midwest2)1.5NetherlandsDenmark-65%2.0Source:EIA,US Census,CBS,Statistics DenmarkSelected regions have similar monthly average temperature(overall average 47-50 F)1)Selected regions primarily use natural gas for cooking and heating comparable share of electricity in total energy consumption by householdsElectricity consumption by households per capita,2004 MWh1)8.3-10 C 2)Minnesota,Iowa,Wisconsin,Illinois,Indiana,Michigan,OhioCommentsSETTING THE SCENE3Successfully greenToday I will present you a snapshot of the results from our recently executed European green energy researchGreen energy in Europe research May September 2007SETTING THE SCENETop green performersHow are successful green companies identified?Who are the top performers in Europe?1Best practice green strategiesWhat have been the results over the last three decades?What are examples of best practice green strategies in Europe?2Green regulatory contributionHow have European regulators successfully contributed to green improvement?What are key success factors?3Next green stepsWhat will happen in Europe as it becomes greener?4Source:Roland Berger4Successfully greenSample60%Other companies40%The research covers the 20 largest utilities and 12 key markets in Europe Research overviewSETTING THE SCENERoland Berger has analyzed 20 companiesAnalysis of financial and operational data of 20 leading European energy companiesDesk researchInterpretation of results based on Roland Berger experiencecovering all major European markets including a wide spectrum of market playersSample split by company size2006 revenues,EUR bn representing a major share of European electricity generation10-1515%15-2530%2520%70%of homes covered,significantly reducing electricity demandWind:Denmark,Germany and Spain are amongst market leaders in wind energy production and wind energy solutions,driven by early investments and favorable feed-in feesCHP:CHP covers 30%-50%of electricity generation in Northern European countries,driven by strong government stimulationBiomass/waste incineration:Countries in Western Europe have reduced environmental impact of fossil fuel plants by co-firing biomass and waste(25%)Coal:Eon increased efficiency of coal plants from 36%to near 46%,reducing costs and CO2 outputFailuresGreen retail products:Green energy retail products amass 25%uptake in Dutch market,however as demand was mainly covered by import less than 5%of generation capacity switched to greenSolar cells:Subsidies have made Germany the main destination for solar cells and have made solar cells more expensiveCarbon trading:When it became apparent that CO2 emissions rights were not scarce,the EU Emission Trading Scheme(EU-ETS)collapsedSource:Roland Berger6Successfully green1.Top green performersHow are successful green companies identified?Who are the top performers in Europe?7Successfully greenCarbon footprint is not a good measure for greenness“,legacy and short-term changes affect the scores1Carbon footprint of selected European energy companies1)Status quo,2006 g CO2/kWhDevelopment,CAGR 2002-2006%change2)ElectrabelGDFCentricaVattenfallSuezEndesaNuonUnion FenosaDONGEnecoEssentE.ONEnelEDPSSERWEFortumBritish EnergyEDFIberdrolaCentrica3)Union FenosaEDP2)E.ONElectrabel3)RWENuonEnelEndesa3)IberdrolaVattenfallSuezGDFEneco3)FortumEDFSSEBritish Energy1)Based on generated electricity;based on supplied electricity for Eneco and Nuon(no generation or no data on emissions from generation)2)No historical data available for Essent and Dong;3)Only 3 years data available,CAGR 2004-2006Source:Annual reports,company documents and websitesTop 3 depends on nuclear and/or hydro for 70%of generation Only a few companies show improvement8Successfully greenWe look at renewables investments to determine leaders,which are EDP,Iberdrola and the major German companies1Source:Annual reports,company documents and websites1)No(historical)data available for Essent,Nuon,Eneco,Centrica,DONG and GDF;Eneco has no installed capacity in 20062)Only 3 years data available,CAGR 2004-2006;3)Total capacity decreased for Fortum(-1.0%)and British Energy(-8.2%)Renewables footprint of selected European energy companies1)Renewable capacity development,CAGR 2002-2006%changeRenewables in installed capacity,2006%MW12%51%4%45%38%19%15%11%34%29%35%42%19%0%17.510.78.77.54.33.02.71.71.61.40.40.10.02.1E.ONEDP2)RWEIberdrolaEnelElectrabel2)SSESuez2)EndesaUnion FenosaVattenfallFortumEDFBritish EnergyTop 4 development includes both leaders and laggards in renewable capacity9Successfully green2.Best practice green strategiesWhat are examples of best practice green strategies in Europe?10Successfully greenGreen strategies work on different levels,ranging from saving energy to reducing emissions from conventional generationTypes of green strategies2 Increasing priority DStoring emissionsBest practice examplesValue chainASaving energyEnergy efficiency programs(residential&business)Smart metersRetailRetailBUsing renewable sourcesGreen products for business customersWind energy(onshore&offshore)Biomass(co-firing&mono-firing)Hydro energyRetailGenerationGenerationGenerationCIncreasing output of conventional,non-renewable sourcesHigh-efficiency condensing boilersCombined Heat&PowerIncreasing thermal plant efficiencyRetailGenerationGenerationCarbon capture and sequestration technology is in its infancy,first plants are currently under development11Successfully greenCentrica realizes significant energy savings by marketing retail insulation and lighting solutions,leveraging government supportTotal energy saved in EEC,Centrica,April 2002 May 2005 GWh2Source:Centrica EEC Annual Report 2004/200526,478Total52%48%8,993Insulation69%31%9,202Lighting33%67%5,163Heating15%85%3,120Appliances1)SubsidizedNon-subsidized1)e.g.solar cells12Successfully greenGovernment support to set up a market enabled the successful implementation of high-efficiency(HE)condensing boilersMarket penetration of HE boilers2In conventional boilers,the water vapor produced when combusting natural gas is lost via a flue HE boilers condense this vapor and use it to heat water or air for the central heating systemAcross Europe,conventional boilers are being replaced with HE boilers government support and standards play an important roleHE boilers achieve efficiency of 90%(70-80%for conventional boiler)HE boilers can save up to 40%on consumer energy bills(payback period of boiler roughly 2-3 years)Source:RIVM,Energy Saving TrustCommentsShare of HE boilers as%of total Example:the NetherlandsSponsoredresearch(Gasunie)Subsidies for HE boilersConsultation with installation companies(since early-90s)Introduction of energy efficiency standards for newly built housesBeginning of dismantlement of subsidies for HE boilers13Successfully greenCHP was strongly supported by government today it covers a significant share of gross electricity generation in several European countriesUse of CHP in selected countries,1994-2004%of gross electricity generation2CommentsThermal efficiency of CHP plants is 80-90%(compared to 35-55%of conventional plants)CHP is used by energy companies(heat and power sold publicly)as well as by large industrial companies(generation for own use)Transport of heat is difficult and expensive,making CHP a local business efficiency of decentral CHP is higher than that of central CHPPart of current heat demand,now fulfilled by other solutions,could be fulfilled by CHP remaining potential of CHP is still significantEU 15 averageDenmarkFinlandNetherlands1)Source:Eurostat,Roland Berger analysis1)Declining share of CHP in the Netherlands due to the unpredicted decline in government support(MEP subsidies),share is picking up again in recent years15Successfully greenDutch companies implemented co-firing of biomass in existing coal plants biomass is major part of companies renewable generationDevelopment of biomass in the Netherlands2GENERATION BIOMASSSource:Research Policy magazine,CBSPolicy agreement between Dutch market players and government(1999)set ambitious targets for carbon emission cutbackLiberalization of green products in retail market provided a second incentive to increase green generationBoth Dutch market players with in-house generation capacity,Essent and Nuon,increased the use of biomass in existing coal plants to expand their green generation capacityExperience with technology and supply chain proves to be valuable in development of next generation clean-coal plantsNote:in-house generation capacity still not enough to fulfill total market demand for renewable energyBackground of co-firingRenewable generation in the Netherlands GWh2,67320002,99220013,62920023,64620034,96320047,0202005Biomassco-firingOther biomassWindWaterSolar PVWaste incineration16Successfully green3.Green regulatory contributionHow have European regulators successfully contributed to green improvement?What are key success factors?18Successfully greenStable political support drives green Scandinavia and Austria are best in class with 50%share of renewables and CHPSource:Eurostat,European Union Energy&Transport in figures 2006Green generation in EU share of renewables and CHP in electricity generationRenewables and CHP in electricity generation,2004%of total TWhEU-25 average33%11%14%Renewables10%CHPOther renewablesHydroCHP6%12%18%Renewables8%CHP25%Renewables50%CHP5%5%10%Renewables9%CHP7%Renewables30%CHPSpain5%22%28%Renewables11%CHPPortugalNetherlandsDenmarkGermany6%40%45%Renewables8%CHPSweden12%18%30%Renewables34%CHPFinland1%60%62%Renewables15%CHPAustria19Successfully greenA stable regime should follow a clear governing principle,fostering regulation to embody an integrated set of measures3Disposal with energy gen.5Useful application4Material recycling3Product recycling2Prevention1Disposal other than landfill1)6Landfill7 Increasing priority Taxation,e.g.landfillOwnership,e.g.incinerationRegulation,e.g.WEEEIncentives/Law,e.g.pay-by-bagGoverning principleLansinks Ladder prioritize treatment alternatives to minimize disposalRegulation Incentives and rules to stimulate polluters to move up Lansinks LadderExample:Waste management in Benelux 20Successfully greenEurope is learning too:over the last 3 decades,Europe has seen random waves of green energy,which we currently see revivingDevelopment of green energy technologies(1970-present)70s80s90s00sEnergy efficiencyCombined Heat&Power generationCHP reduces need of combustion for generating heat:reduction of emissionsNEXT GEN?Micro CHPSome countries use CHP for 30 to 50%of total electricity generationWind energyExtensive R&D efforts in 80s&90s delivered turbines at competitive size and priceAs of mid-90s,government support provided the necessary encouragement for commercial investment to take offNEXT GEN?Offshore windGovernments promoted energy efficiency(incl.reintroduction of wintertime)Growing interest in renewables:research into solar&wind beganNEXT GEN?Energy efficiency221Successfully greenRegulatory failures are particularly instructive for the Midwest,they show the conditions under which tax or trade do workKey success factors for regulatory measures3Link incentive to objective Closed system for subsidizationWell equipped playersWhat can happen if KSF is not met?Examples“Fraud”-Green retail subsidies were used in the Netherlands on imports no change in production parkSystem collapses-CO2 trading system collapsed when it became apparent there was oversupply and trading was not 100%closedMarket will not develop+Government supported companies in rolling out CHP,HE boilers by training market,giving long-term licenses-Companies were not equipped to trade carbon market took 3 years to developKSFStable,proven technologyMoney wasted-German government invests heavily in solar cells,increasing price of cells but hardly affecting usage22Successfully green4.Next green stepsWhat will happen in Europe as it becomes greener?27Successfully greenThere will not be standalone green policy-making:policy making focuses on steering towards the optimal fuel mixOptimal fuel mix from sustainable perspectiveAffordableCleanReliable(security ofsupply)OptimalfuelmixAffordableMinimal price difference with other countriesLong-term affordability,even if fuel prices changeReliableReliable electricity supply for all usersContinuity of resource availabilityNo disproportionate dependency on specific resources and/or countriesCleanMeet standards for emission and nuclear disposalMinimal indirect environmental impact from a value chain perspectiveOptimal use of renewable sources428Successfully greenAs no single fuel meets all criteria,a mixed portfolio of coal,gas,nuclear and green plants will remainNeed for a balanced fuel mixNo one source fulfills all criteriaNone of these sources can fulfill total electricity demand on its ownTotal demand,reliability and flexibility require a mix of fuelsQuestion:can this be done without nuclear fuel?4AffordableCleanReliableSourceHydroNuclearWindBiomassSolar PVGasOilCoal/lignite29Successfully greenThe scenarios we developed for the Dutch government indicate nuclear is a must to realize the targets!Carbon emissions kgCO2eq/MWhVSNL 2005NL 2020EU 2005GermanyUKJapanEU 2020FranceAffordableCleanReliable26%4%NL 200418%12%NL 202026%10%6%EU 200521%12%EU 202027%10%Japan50%7%USGasCoalHydro NuclearFuel mix%TWhElectricy prices EUR/MWhNL 2005NL 2020GermanyFranceBelgiumEU 2020EU 2005Bron:Cap Gemini,IEA,Roland Berger430Successfully green