房地产评估与房地产经济学.ppt

房地产评估与房地产经济学,WhatisRealEstateEconomics什么是房地产经济学,Isaboutpeopleandhowtheiractionsaffectrealestatevalues房地产经济研究人以及人的行为影响房地产价值Realestateeconomicsisastudythatuseseconomicprinciples,bothmacroandmicro,toanalyzetheimpactthatnational,regional,community,andneighborhoodtrendshaveonrealestatevalues.房地产经济学使用微观和宏观经济学原则分析国家、区域、社区和邻里对房地产价值的影响Ithelpspeopletounderstandwhatcausesfluctuationsinrealestateactivityandhowthesechangescanaffectlocalrealestatemarkets.房地产经济学帮助人们理解影响房地产市场涨跌以及这些变化又如何影响地方房地产市场,WhatareFactorsthatAffecttheValueofaProperty影响房地产价值的因素,Capitalmarkets—supplyside资本市场——供给方面Labormarkets—demandside劳动力市场——需求方面Populationgrowth—demandside人口增长——需求方面Marketsegmentation—localityofsupplyanddemand,typesoruses,characteristicsofpropertyetc.市场分割——供需的地方性，类型或使用，房地产特性等,WhatareFactorsthatAffecttheValueofaProperty影响房地产价值的因素,Interrelationshipbetweensub-marketsofproperties房地产子市场的相关性Regulationsandlaws(taxation,landuseregulation)规定与法律（税收、土地利用规定）Urbaninfrastructureandneighborhoodamenity城市基础设施和社区舒适度Political,social,andeconomicforces政治、社会和经济力量,CapitalMarketandPropertyMarket资本市场和房地产市场,Supplyofstructure对结构（建筑面积）的需求Marketpricesandnetoperatingincomeofaproperty(rent)市场价格和房地产净运营收入（租金）Interrelationshipbetweencapitalmarketandrealestatemarket(shortrunandlongrun)资本市场和房地产市场的相关性（短期和长期）,RealEstateMarketandMarketEquilibrium房地产市场和市场平衡,Capitalmarketinducedincreasesinsupply,decreaseinrents资本市场导致的供给增加，租金降低,Theimpactofdecreaseinthemarketcapitalizationrateonrealestatemarket,,LocationandValueofaProperty房地产区位和价值,SupplyoflandUrbanlandrentgradientandlandpriceRelationbetweenurbanlandpriceandcapitaldensityLandpriceandurbanlanduse(spatialstructure),土地供给城市土地租金梯度和土地价格的关系城市土地价格和资本密度的关系土地价格和城市土地利用（空间结构）,UrbanLandMarket城市土地市场,Supplyoflandisinelastic,demandiselastic土地供给是非弹性的，需求是弹性的,Translatingrentstolandprices将租金转化为土地价值,Rentsareafunctionof:AgriculturallandvalueValueofthestructuresLocationvalueExpectedgrowthinlocationvalue,租金是包括如下因子的函数：农用土地价格建筑结构价格区位价格预计区位价格的增长,Translatingrentstolandprices将租金转化为土地价值,Pricesareafunctionof:InterestratesExpectedrentgrowthRiskofrentalpaymentTaxregime,价格是一个如下因素决定的函数：利率预计租金增长租金支付风险税收体制,Landuseefficiencyindicatedbyhigh-degreeofland-capitalinputsubstitution土地和资本投入的相互替代程度,关系到城市土地使用效率的高低,DensityProfilewithLandMarkets土地市场下的城市密度空间变化,Paris,,,,,,,LandPrice(rentgradient)andSpatialStructure级差地租与空间结构,Landvaluesinmulti-nuclearcities,CitySpatialFormandGrowth,CitySpatialFormandGrowth,HousingEconomics住房经济学,CharacteristicsofhousingcommodityandhousingmarketsHeterogeneity(style,rooms,location,amenity,urbanservicesetc.)ImmobilityAchangeinhousingconsumptionmeansachangeinresidentiallocationHightransactioncostsMarketsegmentations,房屋及其房屋市场的特性异质性（风格，房间数，位置，城市服务等）不可移动性住房消费的变化意味着驻地的变化高的交易成本分割的市场,HousingEconomics住房经济学,Whatisconsumed?ItisattributesofhousingthatincludesstructuralfactorsandlocationalamenityWiderangeofvariationinpricechangeacrosscitiesaswellasacrosslocalitywithinacityBuyingahouse=investment?Maybe.,住房消费？消费的是房屋的属性（结构，大小，区位属性等)城市间，一个城市内部不同地理位置房屋价格基期价格的变化相当不同买房不等于投资,HousingEconomics住房经济学,,房屋价格函数,P=Housingprice;房屋价格S=Vectorofstructurevariables;结构矢量L=Vectoroflocational(access)variables区位矢量N=Vectorofneighborhoodvariables;邻里矢量,HousingEconomics住房经济学,,房屋价格函数,Whatisthemeaningofthispartialderivatives?Marginalprices偏导的意义？边际价格,Spatialdriftofcoefficients(marginalprices),implyingthatthecostofoneadditionalroomvariesacrosslocality.边际价格的空间“漂移”,如，加一个房间的价格在不同地方是不一样的,HousingEconomics住房经济学,,房屋市场均衡(Rosen,1974),决定房屋的价格,影响房地产价格的外在因素,,ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces政治、社会和经济力量的影响,ExternalFactorsofPropertyMarkets房地产市场的外在因素,2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis区域与社区分析,3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis邻里单元价值分析,4.LandUsePlanning土地利用规划,,PoliticalForcesinfluencingValue政治因素影响价值Propertyrightsandownership财产权和所有权ThefifthandFourteenthAmendmentsinUS美国第五和第十四修正案Federalfinancingaidsandfiscalpolicycontrols联邦财政补助和财政控制Rateofinterests利率,ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces政治、社会和经济力量的影响,SocialForcesinfluencingValue社会因素影响价值Populationgrowthrate(timelyandspatially)人口增长率（时间与空间）Demographiccomposition(age,race,gender,income)人口构成（年龄、种族、性别和收入）Housingpreference(Housing/per1000people)住房偏好（住房/千人）,ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces政治、社会和经济力量的影响,GeneralEconomicforcesInfluencingValue影响价值的经济因素Grossnationalproduct国民生产总值Percapitaincomeandrealwagelevels人均收入和实际收入水平Unemploymentasameasureoffullemployment.Correlationbetweenunemployment,propertyforeclosures,andpropertytaxdelinquencies失业率衡量就业水平。失业率，丧失赎回权和拖欠财产税的相关性Personalsavingandinvestments个人存款和投资Generalbusinessandrealestateactivity主要商业和地产活动,StateandRegionalForcesInfluencingValue国家和区域因素影响价值Differentialsofpolicyandlaw政策和法律差异Differentialsofeconomicprospective经济远景差异etc.等等,GovernmentToolsintheRealEstateMarket房地产市场中的政府手段,Analyzehowgovernmentactionsaffectpropertyvalueandmakeappropriatechanges分析政府行为如何影响房地产价值并促其变化Monitormarketactivitytoqueueproposals,lesseningtheboom/bustcycle监控市场行为以排序发展次序，减缓涨跌循环Useeconomicdevelopmentpoliciestoattractusesthatfitwiththeregion’smasterplan使用经济发展政策来引导土地使用，其方式与强度与区域总体规划相一至,LocalGovernmentandPropertyValue地方政府和房地产价值,Abilitytoprovideserviceaffectsvalue服务能力影响价值Crimerate犯罪率Fireprotection火警预防Easeofdoingbusinessaffectsvalue从事商务活动的方便性影响价值Propertytaxrate房地产税率Regulatoryenvironment政策规范环境Liquorlicense酒精饮料销售许可Zoningrequirements分区要求,,LocalGovernmentandPropertyValue地方政府和房地产价值,Externalitiesfromnearbyusesaffectvalue周围环境等外在因素影响环境Noisefromairports机场噪声Pollutionfromfactories工厂污染,,MonitoringLandMarketActivity监控土地市场活动,Goalistopreventoverbuildingthatleadstovacancies,disinvestment,andblight目标在于防止建设过度而导致空置、蚀本和经济衰落Stillneedtoencouragecommercialdevelopmenttoincreasepropertytaxbaseandpromoteeconomicdevelopment仍需要鼓励商业开发以增加房地产税基数和促进经济发展,,MonitoringLandMarketActivity监控土地市场活动,PolicyTool:DevelopmentQueuing政策工具：开发次序Plannersacceptproposalsandgrantpermissiontobuildonlyifmarketconditionsindicatethatdemandcanabsorbthenewspace规划师审查规划方案，仅审批那些市场可以消化的建设Plannersestimatemarketconditionsthroughtraditionalmeans–gatheringdataaboutrents,vacancyrates,currentconstruction,jobgrowth,andspendingpatterns规划师采用传统方式——收集租金数据，空置率，建设现状，就业率增长和消费模式——来估计市场形势,TheRealEstateMarket房地产市场Immobility固定性Indestructibility不可破坏性Non-homogeneity异质性Propertydissimilarityimposesspecialmarketconditions房地产的差异性形成了特殊的市场条件,2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis区域和社区分析,TheRealEstateMarket房地产市场Durabilityofrealestatecausesmal-adjustmentsinbothsupplyanddemandonalocalmarketlevel房地产的持续性导致对地方市场供求的不当调整Studyingtheunderlyingforcescreatingsupplyanddemandforrealproperty研究形成房地产供求的潜在力量,2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis区域和社区分析,CauseofUrbanization城市化的结果CitySpatialFormandGrowth城市空间形态和增长RegionalAnalysis区域分析Regionalanalysistechniques:economicbaseanalysis,regionalinput-outputanalysis区域分析方法：经济基础分析，区域投入产出分析,RegionalandCommunityAnalysis区域和社区分析,PopulationTrendsandCharacteristics人口趋势和特征EconomicMeasuresofCommunityGrowth社区增长的经济量化LandUsePattern土地利用模式,RegionalandCommunityAnalysis区域和社区分析,NeighborhoodDefined邻里的定义TheNeighborhoodAgeCycle邻里单元的周期,3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis邻里单元价值分析,,临街土地价值,时间,成熟期,成长期,衰退期,向次级经济活动转变,老化期,NeighborhoodCharacteristics邻里单元的特征Physicalfeatures物质特征Demographiccharacteristics人口特征Economicinfluences经济影响,3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis邻里单元价值分析,,HighestandBestUsePrinciple最高与最好使用原则,,HighestandBestUsePrinciple最高与最好使用原则,ConceptsPresentvalueAmortizationValue,capitalrate,andrent(Netoperatingincome—rent)Futurevalue(=0)Highestandbestuseanalysis,概念现在价值分期偿还价值，资金率和租金（净收益——租金）未来价值最高与最佳使用分析,,HighestandBestUseAnalysis最高与最好分析,Thehighestandbestuseofvacantland闲置土地的最高与最佳使用Thehighestandbestuseoftheimprovedsite已开发土地的最高与最佳原则,,HighestandBestUseAnalysis最高与最好分析,Fourcriteria:Physicalpossible:size,shape,terrain,capacity,availabilityofutilitiesetc.Legallypermissible:restriction,zoning,buildingcodes,environmentalregulationsandotherslaws.Financialfeasible:iftheprojectproduceanincomeorreturnequaltoorgreaterthantheamountneededtocovercosts.Maximallyproductive.,四项条件：物质上可行：尺寸，形态，地形，容量，服务设施等法律上允许：限制，分区，建筑规范，环境规则和其他法律经济上可行：如果项目产出等于或大于投入最大生产率ApartmentOfficeRetail公寓办公零售Costofconstruction$1,021,600$928,000$817,300建设投资Effectivegrossincome有效毛收入$265,000$200,000$180,000Operatingexpenses-$135,000-$80,000-$69,000运营费用--------------------------------------------$130,000$120,000$111,000Assuminga20year-yearlifeforthebuilding,thenPV=thecostofconstruction,FV=0,i=1,n=20.,HighestandBestUseforaVacantLot闲置土地的最高与最佳使用,,ForApartment:NOItoland=NOIoftotal-buildingamortizationcost$10,000=$130,000-$120,000SiteValue:V=R/I=10,000/0.10=$100,000ApartmentOfficeRetailIncometobuilding@10%$120,000$109,000$96,000Incometosite$10,000$11,000$15,000Indicatedsitevalue@10%$100,000$110,000$150,000SoRetailhasthehighestvalueforthesite,HighestandBestUseofAPropertyasImproved房地产更新的最高与最佳原则,,Thealternativesare:Renovatetheexistingstores,spending$20,000Converttheexistingspacetooffices,spending$40,000Demolishandconstructanewbuilding,不同方案:更新现存商店，花2万美元改成办公，花4万拆除，建设新办公楼,HighestandBestUseofAPropertyasImproved房地产更新的最高与最佳原则,ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNewBlgAcquisitionprice$200,000$200,000$200,000Renovationcost$20,000$40,0000Constructioncost00$700,000Demolishcost00$30,000Totalcosts$220,000$240,000$930,000Theacquisitionpricewillbeallocated80percenttoimprovementand20percenttoland.PV=buildingcosts,FV=0,i=10,n=estimatedeconomiclife.,,ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNewBlgBuildingcost(80%)$160,000$160,000$0Newconstruction20,00040,000700,000TotalAllocatedto$180,000$200,000$700,000BuildingEconomiclife15yr15yr20yrReturntoBuilding$23,665$26,295$77,118@10%,HighestandBestUseofAPropertyasImproved房地产更新的最高与最佳原则,,,ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNewBlgEffectivegrossincome$41,000$47,000$123,000Operatingexpenses-12,000-16,000-20,000--------------------------------Netoperatingincome$29,000$31,000$103,000Returntobuilding@10%-23,665-26,295-77,118--------------------------------Incometosite$5,335$4,705$26,582Adjustmentfor10%returnOncostoflandacquisition-4,000-4,000-23,000--------------------------------ResidualincometolandasAdjustedresidualincome$1,335$705$3,582AdditionallandvaluecreatedAt10%capitalization$13,3507,050$35,820Totallandvaluecreated(originalpurchase+additional)$53,350$47,050$265,820Note:$200,000*20%=40,000forthefirsttwocases.Thelastcase:thetotallandcostbecomestheinitialpurchaseplusthedemolishcost(200,000+30,000=$230,000),RealEstateMarketCycle房地产市场周期,“Unbalance”ofdemandforandsupplyofrealestateDifferentmarketcyclesofdifferentrealestatemarketsValuechangeindifferentsegmentinmarketcycle,房地产市场供求不均衡不同房地产市场的不同周期市场周期中不同部分的价值变化,,MarketCycle市场周期,,TorontoRealEstateMarkets多伦多房地产市场,,Summary总结,Itisveryimportanttounderstandrealestatemarkets,thedevelopmentofrealestate,andfactors(forcesandmarkets)thatinfluencerealestatepricesandevaluation了解房地产市场，房体产的发展，以及他们的影响因素对房地产评估是非常重要的Forcesbehindmarketcyclingistoocomplicatedandwestilldonotunderstand市场周期背后的力量复杂，我们尚不很清楚,,