理解中国碳中和路径和电力行业改革的多模型方法.pdf

EEISTPowEr SEcTor fuTurES In chIna a mulTI-modEl aPProach To undErSTandIng chInaS carbon-nEuTral PaThwayS and PowEr SEcTor rEformlEad auThorS:ArAbellA Miller-WAng1,Hongyu ZHAng2,Pete bArbrook-JoHnson1,yixuAn ZHAng1,PiM Vercoulen3,FeMke niJsse4,yuyAn Weng2,siMon sHArPe6,JeAn-FrAncois Mercure4,7,MicHAel grubb8,xiliAng ZHAng2 1 university of oxford,2 tsinghua university,3 cambridge econometrics,4 university of exeter,5 unFccc climate champions,6 World resources institute,7 World bank,8 university college londonShort summary of report purpose 2Contents 2Executive summary 41.Introduction 61.1.Chinas long-term climate objectives 71.2.Chinas power sector 121.3.Public sector and policy 10 2.A multi-model approach to modelling the power sector 142.1.The Renewable Electricity Planning and Operation(REPO)Model 162.2.The E3ME-FTT:Power model 212.3.REPO results imagining a pathway for Chinas power sector 282.4.E3ME-FTT:Power results the impact ofdifferentpricingapproaches362.5.Comparison of REPO and E3ME-FTT:Power results 413.Policy implications 483.1.Market reform of Chinas power sector 513.2.Emission Trading System 523.3.Public R&D 533.4.Deployment of renewable energy and storage 54ContentsThis report is jointly published by Tsinghua Universitys Institute of Energy,Environment,and Economy(3E)and other partners in the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition(EEIST)project.Its purpose is to showcase and compare some of the new economy-energy modelling that 3E and its partners in the EEIST project have conducted on the Chinese power sector.These models are used to explore the power sectors role in Chinaspathwaytocarbonneutralityandthepotentialimpactofdifferentelectricity pricing systems.3AboutThe Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition(EEIST)project develops cutting-edgeenergyinnovationanalysistosupportgovernmentdecisionmaking around low-carbon innovation and technological change.By engaging with policymakers and stakeholders in Brazil,China,India,the UK and the EU,the project aims to contribute to the economic development of emerging nations and support sustainable development globally.Led by the University of Exeter,EEIST brings together an international team of world-leading research institutions across Brazil,China,India,the UK and the EU.The consortium of institutions are:UK University of Exeter,University of Oxford,University of Cambridge,University College London,Anglia Ruskin University,Cambridge Econometrics,Climate Strategies;Brazil Federal University of Rio de Janeiro(UFRJ),University of Brasilia(UNB),University of Campinas(UNICAMP);EU Scuola Superiore di Studi Universitari e di Perfezionamento SantAnna(SSSA);China Beijing Normal University,Tsinghua University,Energy Research Institute;India The Energy and Resources Institute,World Resources Institute.The EU partner SSSA contributed as a leading organisation with focus on Brazil context and research.ContributorsEEIST is jointly funded through UK Aid by the UK Government Department for Energy Security&Net Zero,and the Childrens Investment Fund Foundation(CIFF).Contributing authors are drawn from a wide range of institutions.For full institutional affiliationsseewww.eeist.co.uk The contents of this report represent the views of the authors,and should not be taken to represent the views of the UK government,CIFF or the organisations to which the authors areaffiliated,orofanyofthesponsoringorganisations.AcknowledgementsThe authors wish to thank the UK Department for Energy Security&Net Zero,the Childrens Investment Fund Foundation(CIFF),and Founders Pledge for their support as sponsors of the EEIST project.We also wish to thank all those who contributed their time and expertise todevelopingandrefiningtheanalysis,conceptsandideaspresentedinthisreport,andinbringing it to publication.This includes,but is not limited to:Jacqui Richards,Sarah Board and individuals from the Communities of practice in EEIST partner countries,the EEIST Senior Oversight Group,and the UK government.Edited by Custom Editorial:www.customeditorial.co.ukExecutive summaryEEISTThis report outlines power sector reforms developing in China and the increasingly complex landscape of climate and energy policies intended to support carbon neutrality.Itthenpresentstwodifferentbutcomplementaryenergy-economymodels of the energy transition and power sector in China:the REPO model developed by 3E at Tsinghua University and the E3ME-FTT:Power model developed by the University of Exeter and Cambridge Econometrics.These models are used to illuminate possible futures for the Chinese power sector.In combination,they show that,whichever modelling approach we take,the impending dominance of solar and wind power in China is clear.However,the implications of this transition for costs and wider macroeconomic impacts are more subtle.Costs could increase or decrease depending on what pricing mechanisms are used and our assumptions about the exact power mix.Impacts on GDP and investment appear to be positive in high renewable scenarios,but the impacts on employment vary by sector and are more balanced in our analysis.ThesefindingshaveseriousimplicationsforarangeofpolicyissuesinChina.Theysuggestpowersectorreforms,andspecificallymarket-basedpricingmechanisms,have the potential to support Chinas carbon neutrality goal.They also make clear the role of the ETS in supporting the goal,through a meaningful carbon price.Finally,both sets of analysis make clearer than ever the need to address a range of potential barriers to rapid deployment ofrenewables,whetherfinancial,technical,legalorotherwise.451.IntroductionEEISTOverthepastfouryears,theEEISTprojecthasdevelopedseveralcutting-edgeeconomic and energy models aimed at equipping policymakers with tools to inform policies that encourage the energy transition.Among these is the Future Technology Transformations Power model,(referred to as FTT:Power).This dynamic,non-equilibrium model simulates competition between various power generation technologies,taking into account factors such as cost,performance,technological learning and policy impacts.The model encompasses 71 regions,including China.FTT:Power is coupled with the E3ME macroeconomic model.The Renewable Electricity Planning and Operation(REPO)Model,on the other hand,isacapacityexpansionanddispatchmodeltailoredspecificallyforChinaby the 3E Institute at Tsinghua University.This model aims to minimise the total discountedcostofthepowersystem,offeringoptimalcapacityandpowergeneration solutions for each technology,transmission capacities between provinces,and carbon emission levels.This report showcases and compares the design and outputs generated by these two models for Chinas power sector.It aims to highlight key outputs and policyimplications,aswellasthesimilaritiesanddifferencesinmodeldesign andpurpose.Wedothisagainstthepolicylandscapeofsignificantdiscussion and action on power reform in China.Our objective is twofold:1.togainadeeperinsightintoChinaspowersectorusingcutting-edge economic-energy models,and 2.to deepen collaboration and understanding between modelling teams and analysts inside and outside China.Thereportcomprisesthreesections.Therestofthisintroductionoffersanoverview of Chinas power sector and the policy context,including plans to transition towards low-carbon energy production.The second section describes the FTT:Power and REPO models,detailing their principles,assumptions,scenarios and results.This includes a direct comparison of model results,identifying areas of alignment and divergence.Finally,we consider the policy implications for China derived from these model analyses.61.1.Chinas long-term climate objectives In September 2020,President Xi Jinping announced the goals of achieving carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060,to address climate change.The goals are also reflected in Chinas updated 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions(NDC)1 in accordance with the Paris Agreement,and Chinas first long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy in the middle of this century.2 Chinas energy system is facing profound transformation.In October 2021,the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and the State Council issued the Working Guidance for Carbon Dioxide Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in Full and Faithful Implementation of the New Development Philosophy,as well as the Action Plan for Carbon Peak before 2030.These documents outline that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption needs to reach around 25%by 2030,and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP needs to decrease by more than 65%by 2030 compared to 2005.3 By 2060,the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption needs to exceed 80%.4The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission has proposed to build a new type of power sector with new energy(i.e.renewables)as the main energy source for the first time.A target total installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching over 1200 GW by 2030 was set out by the State Council.6 New targets have also been set for the development of energy storage,to meet the high proportion and large-scale development needs of new energy.By 2025,the installed capacity of new energy storage needs to reach over 30 MW,and the installed capacity of pumped-hydro storage needs to exceed 62 GW.By 2030,the installed capacity of pumped-hydro storage needs to be around 120 GW.7To promote the achievement of these goals,China has launched a series of policies,including on green electricity,8 the renewable portfolio standard(RPS)9 and a carbon market.10 In addition,in terms of market mechanism,China will further promote the reform of the power sector,and will initially establish a nationwide unified power market system by 2025,and basically establish a nationwide unified power market system by 2030.11 These are described in detail below.1 State Council,Chinas Achievements,New Goals and New Measures for Nationally Determined Contributions.2021.https:/www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/Party.aspx?party=CHN2 State Council,Chinas MidCentury Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy.2021.https:/unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/China%E2%80%99s%20MidCentury%20LongTerm%20Low%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Emission%20Development%20Strategy.pdf.3 State Council,Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking before 2030.2021.https:/ Implementation of the New Development Philosophy.2021.https:/ State Council,Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking before 2030.2021.https:/ NDRC(National Development and Reform Commission)and NEA(National Energy Administration),Guiding opinions on accelerating the development of new energy storage.2021.https:/ NEA,Medium and long-term development plan for pumped storage hydropower(2021-2035).2021.http:/ NDRC and NEA,Guiding opinions on accelerating the construction of a uniform national electricity market system.2022.http:/ power sectorCapacityThe development of installed capacity in China from 2010 to 2021 is shown in Figure 1,using data from the China Electricity Council(CEC).In the past decade,the total installed capacity of Chinas electricity has been continuously increasing to meet growing demand,from 966 GW in 2010 to 1,525 GW in 2015,and further increasing to 2,378 GW in 2021.While both fossil fuel(thermal)power and hydropower have seen increases in their installed capacities over the past 10 years,their proportions within Chinas power mix have decreased.From 2010 to 2021,China has witnessed a substantial rise in the installed capacities of nuclear,wind and solar power.Compared to thermal and hydropower,the installed capacity of nuclear,wind and solar power in China has grown significantly in the past decade.Preliminary 2022 and 2023 figures from the CEC suggest these trends have continued.Figure 1:Generation capacity of Chinas power sector in 20102021.Source:CEC.1212 CEC,China Electric Power Statistical Yearbook.2022.20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202125002000150010005000Capacity(Gw)n Solar n Wind n Nuclear n Hydro n Thermal8Generation The changes in Chinas electricity generation structure from 2010 to 2021 are shown in Figure 2.In the past decade,Chinas total power generation has shown a continuous upward trend,almost doubling between 2010 and 2021 to 8400 TWh.Affected by the economy and the epidemic,Chinas total power generation slowed significantly in 2015 and from 2019-2020.However,in 2021,with the economic recovery following the epidemic,Chinas total power generation showed rapid growth.Preliminary CEC figures for 2022 suggest total generation then plateaued again.Chinas electricity supply has been mainly based on thermal power technology for a long time,accounting for about 70%,followed by hydropower,accounting for about 20%.In the past decade,the proportion of thermal power technology in power generation has gradually decreased,from 81%in 2010 to 68in 2021.However,in absolute terms,thermal power generation has continued to grow,from just under 3,500 TWh in 2011 to over 5,500 TWh in 2021.It will still be the largest source of electricity generation in China in the near future.Preliminary figures for hydropower for 2022 and 2023 suggest its percentage contribution to generation may be falling.In the past decade,the overall hydropower generation has also shown a growth trend,while the proportion of power generation has remained at around 20%,with little change.Hydropower generation has doubled from 670 TWh in 2010 to 1340 TWh in 2021.At the same time,hydropower is also the main source of renewable energy generation in China,accounting for 16%of the total electricity generation in 2021.Nuclear power,wind power and solar power technologies were developed relatively late and occupy a small proportion in the electricity generation structure.However,these technologies have been widely developed and deployed in the past decade,and their proportion has been continuously expanding.Nuclear power generation grew from 75 TWh in 2010 to 408 TWh in 2021.The growth rate of nuclear power generation has stayed high,generally above 10%.Wind power has also developed rapidly in the past decade,with an electricity generation of only 49 TWh in 2010 and reaching 656 TWh in 2021,achieving a more than tenfold expansion.Although the growth rate of wind power generation has fluctuated significantly in recent years,it has remained at a relatively high level,achieving a 40%growth in 2021,indicating its increasingly important position in the power generation system in recent years.Solar power generation was almost negligible in 2010,but in recent years has developed faster than any other power generation technology,surpassing 100 TWh in 2017,200 TWh in 2019 and 327 TWh in 2021.Figure 2:Electricity generation of Chinas power sector in 20102021201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021900080007000600040003000200010000Generation(Twh)n Solar n Wind n Nuclear n Hydro n Thermal9Energy storageAs a key technology to maintain the balance bet