产业动态与全球市场分析（英文版）.PPT

IndustrialDynamicsandMarket/CompetitorAnalysisinaGlobalContext,KeyConcepts:Dynamics,Industry,Competition,GlobalisationKnowledge,Analysis,Internet,OverviewoftheBlock,TheoriesofIndustrialDynamismandIndustryAnalysisTheoriesofCompetitionandImplicationsforStrategiesofInternationalFirmsInternationalMarketKnowledgeTheInternet,TheConceptofIndustrialDynamics,IndustrialOrganisation(IO)EconomicsTheS-C-PmodelPorter’sFiveForcesTheoriesofCompetitionPerfectcompetitionIndependenceandcompetitiverivalryResource-AdvantageTheoryCompetitiveDynamicsCompetitionisevolutionaryFirmstrategiesaredisequilibriumprovoking(cf.Schumpeter’screativedestruction),ThePlayers,ThefocalindustryCustomers’industry/industriesSuppliers’industry/industriesTheenvironmentastheplayingfield,TheRoleofICTinChangingtheRulesoftheGame,ICTengineeredcompetitors-newentrantsICTasastrategictoolICTaschainfacilitatorsUpstreamDownstream,Migatronic-”TheRollingCase”,TestingTheory-PracticefitCharacteristicsofMigatronic’sindustryNatureanddegreeofcompetitivedynamicsAppropriatnessoftheS-C-PmodelStrategicOrientationofMigatronicKnowledgeAcquisitionandManagementPossibleroleofICTAlternativebusinessdevelopmentstrategiesforMigatronic-,SomeKeyConceptmaybecostlytocollectDatamaybecollectedtolegitimisetopmanagementdecision,StudyingtheCompany,Espousedtheoriesvs.Theories-in-useOrganisationalmindsetCorerigiditiesandroutinizedbehaviourResearcher-ManagementRelationshipTheissueoftrustHiddenagendaofTopManagement,RespondentSelection,RespondentsasrepresentativeofanorganizationSpeakfortheorganisationorunitRespondentsasprivateindividuals,i.e.intheirpersonalcapacitySpeakoftheorganisationorunitRespondent’spersonalagendaTopmanagementcontrolofrespondentselectionSelectionbasedonrecommendationsProblemsofoverorunder-representation,TheConceptofMarketKnowledge,Rational-EmotionalKnowledgeDeclarativeknowledge(facts)SkillsCognitive/perceptualknowledgeSubjectivewisdom,non-causality,affectivebehaviourIndividual-CollectiveKnowledgetrainedcapacity(incapacity)groupnorms,rulesandvalues;“communityofpractices”organisationalmindset(“corecapabilities”or“corerigidities”Explicit-TacitKnowledgecodificationofknowledge----experiencedbasedknowledge”,OrganisationalDisseminationofMarketKnowledge,ProblemsofknowledgeconversionIsface-to-faceinteractionnecessary?ProblemsofcomputermediateddisseminationFunctional/DepartmentalknowledgepreferencesIndividualknowledgepreferencesCulturebasedpreferenceinmulticulturedorganisationsHistory-basedpreferenceRule-basedconstraints,AnalysisOfNewMarketOpportunities,TOYNEANDWALTER’SCLASSIFICATIONincipientdemandmarketsexpectedtoexistinthefuturelatentdemandrepresentsanuntappeddemandcurrentdemand.,AnalysisOfNewMarketOpportunities,ClassificationofmarketsPotentialmarket–customerswhohaveshowninterestbutlackpurchasingpowerAvailablemarket-customerswhohaveshowninterestandhavethepurchasingpowerTargetmarket–themarketsegmentthatthevendorispreparedtoservepenetrated(served)marketunpenetrated,(un-served)market,Ansoff’sProduct-MarketFramework,AnalysisofcurrentmarketsituationsChangesinmarketsegmentconfigurationChangesincompetitorsituationsMarketingmixgapanalysisCustomervalueanalysisAnalysisofnewmarketsituationsIndustrychangesCountryeconomic,political,socialchangesSegmentationanalysisAnalysisofnewproductsituationsBenchmarkingPotentialcustomerneeds/valueanalysisAnalysisofopportunitiesfordiversification,MarketSelectionandPruningDecisions,ConventionalApproachesExpansiveApproachExperimentalandexperientialknowledgeacquisitionContractibleApproachConventionalanalysis,screeningmodelGlobalisedMarketingTheBornglobalsShrinkingmarketlag,globalmarketsegmentsConvergence-DivergencedebateConversiontoE-businessProblemsofdoubletrackstrategiessellingglobalwithoutglobalcapacitycompetingwithdistributors,CriteriaforMarketSelection,CorporateobjectivesandgoalsforthemarketProfit?Marketshare?Longtermpresence?Productknowledgeacquisition?Deterenceofcompetitors/firstmoveradvantage?MarketingrequirementsExistingmarketingfacilitiesinthecountryCorporateresourcesPotentialcompetitorresponseWhatlikelymovesorstrategyshiftswillkeycompetitorsmake?Whereisthecompetitorvulnerable?,ConsiderationRegardingPruning,MarketgrowthrateandshareofmarketIsmarketpenetrationpossibleforus?Aremarketingcostsincreasingmorethanrevenue?Arethereopportunitiesforourotherproductsonthemarket?Shareofkeycustomers’purchasingbudgetAreourcustomers’businessesgrowingordeclining?Areourcustomersloyaltous?Areweloyaltothem?Canwesupplyourkeycustomerswithotherproducts?Canwebuildrelationshipwiththem?Rateoftechnologicalchangewithinthemarket,CustomerValueAnalysis(CVA),Whatisournetgaininservingthisparticularcustomer?Createaprofitprofilecomparingtheprofitcontributionofeachcustomer.DeterminethesourceoftheprofitAssessthevalueelementsbeyondprofitsDeterminetheoverallvaluerankingwithinthecustomergroupDeterminethemarketingrequirementsforservingthecustomers,,Developasales/marketingprogrammecommensuratewiththecustomer’svalueAssessthegrowth(ordecline)thatisexpectedtooccurineachcustomer’sdemandforthevendor’sproductsAssessthedegreeofmarketriskassociatedwitheachcustomerAssessthemarketingeffortsrequiredtosatisfytheneedsofthecurrentbuyermix,PreferencesforAlternativeApproachestoMarketKnowledgeAcquisition,FirmlevelconsiderationsSizeDecision-makingtraditionDegreeofinternationalisationTopmanagementeducationandprofessionalbackgroundIndustry/marketconsiderationsIndustrytraditionsCulturaldeterminantsConceptsofrationalityandknowledge,TypesofInternationalMarketResearch,SinglecountryresearchMulti-countryresearchIndependentmulti-countryresearchSequentialmulti-countryresearchSimultaneousmulti-countryresearch,AModelofMarketOpportunityAnalysis,IssuesSizeofmarketMarketingstrategyrequirementsCompetitors’marketstrategiesandcustomerresponsesRequirmentsDemandanalysisSegementationanalysisIndustryanalysisCompetitoranalysisChannelanalysis,IndustryAnalysis,Industrygrowthoutput,sales,numberoffirmsetc.CommonoperatingpracticescreditfacilitiesandconditionsofpaymentIndustrydynamicsentryandexitbarrierstempooftechnologicalchangeDegreeofconcentrationDegreeofinternationalisation,EstimatingIndustryMarketPotential,Industrymarketpotentialthetotalsalesthatcouldberealisedinageographicareaandtimeperiodiftheindustrywerecapableoffullydevelopingalldemandfortheproductinquestion.IMPt=NtxRt-----------------------------------(1)whereIMPtistheindustrymarketpotentialattime(t)Ntisthenumberofpotentialconsumersintime(t)Rtistheusageratefortheproductintime(t),Industrysalesforecast,Industrysalesforecasttheestimatedlevelofsalesthatwillactuallybegenerated,givenexistingindustrypractices.ISFt=IMPtXIEt-----------------------(2)whereISFtisindustrysalesforecastattime(t)IMPtistheindustrymarketpotentialattime(t)(alreadyestimated)IEindexcanbeestimatedfromtheperformanceoftheindustryduringtheimmediatepast.,EstimatingaFirmsSalesPotential,ThefirmssalespotentialSPt=ISFtxMMSt-------------------(3)whereSPtisthefirmssalespotentialintime(t)ISFtisIndustrySalesForecastintime(t)(alreadyestimated)MMStisthefirmsmaximummarketshareintime(t)basedonmanagementsjudgement.,Company’ssalesforecast,Company’ssalesforecastSFt=ISFtxMSt---------------------(4)whereSFtisyourfirmsactualsalesforecastfortime(t)ISFtbeingtheindustrysalesforecastintime(t)MStbeingyourfirmsestimateofarealisticmarketshare.,Analysisofmarketsize,AnalysisofAggregateDemandAnalysisoffactorsinfluencingdemandfortheindustryasawhole.Determiningtheportionofthistotaldemandthatisavailableforthefirmsparticularproductorservice.,SummaryofEstimatingEquations,IndustryMarketPotentialIMPt=NtxRtIndustrySalesForecastISFt=IMPtxIetFirmsSalesPotentialSPt=ISFtxMMStFirmsSalesForecastSFt=ISFtxMst,MarketAttractivenessCriteria,MarketSizeMarketgrowthrateStrengthofcompetitionProfitpotentialNon-Economicfactorspolitical,social,legal,cultural,CompetitiveStrengths,MarketShareDifferentialadvantagesCostadvantagesReputationDistributioncapabilitiesCorecompetencies,ProblemsRelatingtoInternationalMarketResearch,LackofequivalenceofconceptsLanguageandcontextualdifferencesProblemsoffindingcomparableandreliablesamplingframesDifferencesinqualityandreliabilityofsecondarydataPerceptualdifferencesbetweendecision-makersandmarketresearchersMulti-culturalityofmanycountriesInadequacyoffundstocarryoutsurveys,RationaleandStylesofInterviewing,FlexibilityandadaptabilityTypesofinterviewFullystructuredSemistructuredNon-structuredConversationalinterviewing,Interviewingprocess,ListenmorethanyouspeakPutquestionsinastraightforward,clearandnon-threateningmannerAvoidcueswhichleadintervieweestorespondinaparticularwayEnjoytheinterview(orappeartoenjoyit),Respondents’PerceptionoftheInterviewer,RespondentinformationcensorshipTreatinginterviewerasastrangerProtectingtheorganisationCreatinganon-threateningatmosphereRapportcreatingremarks(newspaperarticle)ReconfirmingpurposeofinterviewChoiceofvenueandtime,ValidityChecks,CheckingperceptualandfactualdisagreementsIssuesofwrongrecordingIssuesofinterviewermisinterpretationMemorydecayRespondentvalidationchecksRespondentvalidationInter-respondentvaliditychecksExternalvaliditychecks(Cross-validation),TheIssueofVocality,Whosevoicecomesthroughinthedata?Topmanagement?Middleorjuniormanagers?Workers?Expatriatestaff?Theneedformultiorbalancedvocality,Segmentingbusinessmarkets,Demographiccharacteristicsthenatureoftheindustry,thesizesofthecompaniesOperatingvariables,companytechnologynatureofproducts,customercapabilitiesPurchasingapproaches,themannerinwhichtheyorganisetheirpurchasingprocess,thepowerstructuresthatcharacterisethepurchasedecisionmakingunitsSituationalfactorstheurgencyoforderfulfillment,productapplication,thesizeoforder.,