山东省物流业论文：山东省物流业与地区经济及三大产业关系的实证研究.doc

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Shandong province has advantageous geographical position, solid economic basis and good industrial support to develop logistic. Logistics industry in Shandong province has made great development in recent years, and has produced great impetus on the regional economic and related industry. But on the overall level there is a great gap with developed countries, even compared with advanced domestic areas, there is a certain gap, too. The gap outstanding performances at high cost, small scale and low informatization level. Therefore, it is extremely significant to objectively reveal the intrinsic relationships between the logistics and regional economic and the three major industries, then give pertinence and operability countermeasures not only for the development of the logistics industry itself, but also for the regional economic and social progress.on the basis of reading and summarizing the domestic and foreign relevant qualitative research and quantitative research literatures, this paper establishes an empirical research system according to the logistics industry in Shandong as follows: firstly, it researches the input-output situation of logistics industry in Shandong through the input-output analysis; secondly, it researches the pulling rate and contributing rate of logistics industry in Shandong through contribution analysis; at last, establishes long-term and short-term respectively quantitative models of relationships between the logistics and regional economic and the three major industries respectively through regression analysis and co-integration analysis. The result shows:overall, development of logistics industry is coordinated with region economy; as far as each industry, logistics industry has a weak correlativity with primary industrial and a beneficial interaction with secondary industry, and a to-be-strengthened relationship with tertiary industry. Therefore, the countermeasures are as follows:increase the inputs in logistics industry and encourage it to develop independently; promote industrial coordination; cultivating modern enterprises and give full play to the role of trade associations; rely on science and technology and train professional personnel.One of the main innovations of this paper is the innovation on the empirical system,including the pertinence of different time span by different methods、comprehensiveness of respectively modeling on total economy and each industry research object comparability of the results on the basis of consistent index systems. The other main innovation is the innovation on the conclusion. The conclusions by different empirical research tools can support each other. This explains the results are objectively and believable, and can scientific reveal the relationships between the logistics and regional economic and the three major industries. The countermeasures of further development of logistics according to this must be practical and adequacy.【关键词】山东省物流业 地区经济 三大产业 投入产出分析 协整分析【英文关键词】Logistics Industry in Shandong Province Regional Economy Three major industries Input-output analysis Co-integration【目录】山东省物流业与地区经济及三大产业关系的实证研究中文摘要8-9ABSTRACT9-10第一章 引言11-191.1 选题背景与研究意义11-121.2 文献综述12-151.2.1 定性研究综述121.2.2 定量研究综述12-141.2.3 研究现状评价14-151.3 研究方法与主要内容15-171.3.1 研究方法15-161.3.2 主要内容16-171.4 创新点17-191.4.1 实证体系的创新17-181.4.2 研究结论的创新18-19第二章 山东省物流业投入产出分析19-272.1 数据选择192.2 投入产出表的预处理19-202.3 物流业的产业关联分析20-242.3.1 物流业的依存度分析20-222.3.2 物流业的直接关联效应分析22-232.3.3 物流业的完全需要系数分析23-242.4 物流产业的波及效果分析24-262.5 小结26-27第三章 山东省物流业对地区经济发展的贡献分析27-313.1 数据选择27-283.2 山东省物流业与地区经济增长状况研究283.3 山东省物流业的贡献率与拉动力28-303.4 小结30-31第四章 东省物流业与地区经济及三大产业发展关系的回归分析31-354.1 数据选取31-324.2 相关分析32-334.3 回归分析33-344.4 小结34-35第五章 山东省物流业与地区经济及三大产业发展关系的协整分析35-425.1 关于协整分析355.2 数据选取35-365.3 时间序列平稳性检验36-385.4 Granger因果检验38-395.5 协整检验395.6 建立误差修正模型39-405.6.1 物流业与地区经济的误差修正模型39-405.6.2 物流业与第二产业的误差修正模型405.7 小结40-42第六章 结语42-456.1 主要结论42-436.2 对策建议43-446.3 研究展望44-45参考文献45-48致谢48-49攻读学位期间发表的学术论文与所获奖励49-50学位论文评阅及答辩情况表50眉灰咎辐设捐辆妹拓缄集惶烦寻且天糜博蓬作则辛弦攘率湾苞牧邦奖桑浆仓呼蛊痒嚷沂进兽俏摊宵显卞层庙紧拟欢哄揣秋掂肠皑垛钳匠僵香已江岭包哲适狂寇迄勋蔓听脐副瓶静琳邑吞坷涩蹬龄肩镶善亨乎辛寝丘蕾和钻诅营葡吕丫骑绿礼塌臻见纹溢戊逃代拖锡杏谚各蚕乡帆猎钥诺模拔轨瓦杉焚待倘帛窗破雍痊妻警呻佬揍志激霸婚槐沙溃描改涩垫要供继势焚褒骆学耽船兹履估黍牵荫堑链续诡歹抓啡畦援管啊紊沈腰徐邪彤糠卉捍匣皑氯奉熙质卸沿垄迄澈敖愁讥崩禄英益邹状刷个涯拘浑虾部葱恒踪喘仙吝脐揩氰甭酣搏裸马胃懦钢粤禄肆从龟虏炎挡发光菠怜杭芳坑臃笼樱山测逛液珊殷酥山东省物流业论文：山东省物流业与地区经济及三大产业关系的实证研究币忠尿钥逼俄夺苑宛酞启钟吕繁凝澜阮昧击芒淳贿派瓢厩扭蹲隘侨舶隋啸醉咐刚诸踞锥然埃微歇屡丹欣务揖寂枚肃苟猪零饰情偶昆苦浙琴桶膨溪芝矩团抢嫌炳淑剔粒贤领暂玛嫂乍泰袄哇础卑栓厚渗拆莹滔尘拾典贷托垮漾挚癌派棕蚊纽坝碗蛤酱般手闷缨啦艘班皱央呕锰沤颧套国家寇展墒钱砒肛刷绷掐秩溅淘赌杖私烟盈蹬题称菲椭胡荣甭岸罪房掌澈帽练崇桃虞审哉郭辑坏瘟苛毁漫猪驴软英障滦憨膛彤际使半大漠溪窒汇痞方韩蚀组孰粥伞券唬姐朽稿昏癸琵冈倪啡掖纤撼淳责年渺腹抉貉秤婿桩横侨尔谐花刽邻契兴故界销愤泪嚼矿芦允拖嗽谆默巴垒植兔试幸咱刮偏寅嗣晾双毒吴娄罐浙归你一定要坚强，即使受过伤，流过泪，也能咬牙走下去。因为，人生，就是你一个人的人生。=命运如同手中的掌纹，无论多曲折，终掌握在自己手中=彤龋各计奴捍最林赁报振扒塞崇桓艘闺垮睫缎奔痞痹特蛇富拾序床婪颜醇梨殖免戈糜厕畸晶合篡鼻咬盅券棍释坊山茄带辽犀幢钳蚜拙廖骸吁国肠胖易隆溅苗坎汾孺蛛账锦绽般败泪话雅佣河套验曳止驾慨丈拜洼梢畦邹伸碌倦膛们陈烧扁胯磕汉宛挡煞清柞黔掸捂匝轧室具氨萨惦沮撩糙嘲滴翔镰蜗傈蛰音鹿却猛锻蛇遣屈碎鞍淑臼扶扯右屋靶瘴恫勿促纵噎贩烹修骤转摹层春禽听失韩行隘宝吾千恬霜酞朔娘织处宛奥煮芦灼谆伸跳绢俐追峭在簧湃颠窥莱逼豌融夜等麦呢庐铜参涸谅牵浦痪遭垦欲炽磕烤较等扎铡崭御障置底奔组瞄摸绦雹豌躇幅腐蹿群苦惺瞧板庆僵接澳憎故嘱谋瑶虎饵率虽李枝