国际集装箱运输市场：运价回升.pdf

20栏目责编：姚亚平月度航情观察v8月，集运市场旺季效果显现，运价回升。需求方面，据CTS统计，1至6月，全球集装箱海运量同比减少4.4%。其中，亚欧线去程方向运量同比增长2.3%，跨太平洋线去程方向减少20.4%。从生产端看，JP Morgan发布的2023年7月全球制造业PMI为48.7，与6月持平，新出口订单分项指数从47.1跌至46.4。从消费端看，7月美国零售销售同比增速赶上通胀增速，均为3.2%；但截至6月，欧元区零售销售已经连续9个月同比减少。运力方面，据Alphaliner统计，2023年1至7月集装箱船交付173艘118.94万TEU，按TEU计，同比增长132%；拆解42艘7.71万TEU，2022年同期为1艘228TEU；8月初，集装箱船运力同比增长了6.3%。截至8月14日，500TEU以上船型非运营运力合计243艘90.4万TEU，占全部运力的3.3%，与7月17日持平。其中，闲置运力81艘24.7万TEU，占现役运力的0.9%，比7月17日减少0.2个百分点。运价方面，上海航运交易所发布的2023年8月中国出口集装箱综合运价指数（CCFI）均值881国际集装箱运输市场：运价回升 中远海运研发点，环比回升1.3%，同比下降70.1%；反映即期市场运价的上海出口集装箱综合运价指数（SCFI）均值1 032点，环比继续回升5.7%，同比下降70.3%。干线运价方面，8月CCFI美西和美东线指数均值环比分别增长11.7%和8.9%，引领运价回升，欧洲和地中海线指数均值环比分别增长3.6%和下跌1.1%。短期看，据Drewry统计，第35至39周（8月28日至10月1日），班轮公司在东西干线上暂停的航次占计划航次的5%，基本保持稳定，这表明班轮公司认为9月旺季需求还将继续。从市场回归常态的角度看，预计以往季节性因素将发挥作用。美国零售商联合会（NRF）估计，美国主要港口集装箱货物进口量在8月达到峰值之后，将温和回落。因此，随着市场逐渐进入传统淡季，运价下行压力或开始加大。2024年，运力交付或达史无前例的299万TEU。不过，需求也将随着通胀降低、加息结束以及零售商完成去库存而温和反弹，情况将好于2023年。因此，市场前景将取决于班轮公司能否妥善部署新交付的大批运力。国际干散货市场8月初延续7月以来的震荡走势。随着南美粮食运输需求的上升，因干旱天气限行的巴拿马运河发生“拥堵”，加上巴西远程矿航线运输需求保持增长，航运市场供需格局得以改善。8月17日，BDI一度涨至近3个月以来的高点1 247点。但是铁矿石和煤炭需求下降，拖累好望角型船市场大幅下跌，抵消了中小型船市场上涨的带动作用。8月下旬，BDI震荡下行，8月31日跌至1 086点。8月BDI均值1 150点，环比上涨10.6%，同比下跌18.6%。18月BDI均值1 141点，同比下跌46.7%。好望角型船市场：太平洋地区澳洲矿商询盘热情不高，压价意图较为明显，船东信心普遍不足，8月31日，5条期租航线日租金平均水平9072美元，比8月初的15 924美元/天下跌43%。巴拿马型船市场：巴拿马运河限航、海上滞留的船舶数量增加，运力阶段性减少推涨租金/运价。8月31日，5条期租航线日租金平均水平13 526 中远海运研发国际干散货运输市场：小幅冲高回落22The container shipping market demonstrated obvious peak season effect in August,with freight rates rebounding.DemandAccording to Container Trades Statistics,global seaborne container volume dropped 4.4%YoY in H1 2023.The trade volume on Asia-Europe outward route increased 2.3%YoY while that on the Trans-Pacific outward route dropped 20.4%YoY.From the production perspective,global PMI in July as JP Morgan released was 48.7,on par with that in June.The new export order index dropped from 47.1 to 46.4.From the consumption perspective,the growth rate of retail sales in the U.S.caught up with that of inflation to reach 3.2%.However,retail sales in the Eurozone dropped for the ninth consecutive month till June.CapacityAlphaliner statistics showed that 173 ships totaling 1,189,400 TEUs of containerships were delivered in the first seven months of 2023,growing 132%YoY in TEU terms.42 vessels of 77,100 TEUs were scrapped,comparing with one 228-TEU ship dismantled during the same period of 2022.In early August,fleet capacity grew 6.3%YoY.As of 14 August,inactive fleet ships,each with a size larger than 500 TEUs,added up to 243 units of 904,000 TEUs and accounted for 3.3%of the total fleet,on par with that on 17 July.Thereinto,81 ships of 247,000 TEUs were idled,accounting for 0.9%of current fleet capacity,0.2%less than that on 17 July.FreightChina Containerized Freight Index(CCFI)released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange averaged 881 points in August,up 1.3%MoM but down 70.1%YoY.Shanghai Containerized Freight Index(SCFI)reflecting the spot market averaged 1,032 points,up 5.7%MoM but still down 70.3%YoY.As for rates on trunk lanes in August,CCFI W/C and E/C America Service averages grew 11.7%MoM and 8.9%MoM respectively and drove up the freight rates while those of Europe Service grew 3.6%MoM and Mediterranean Service dropped 1.1%MoM.In the short term,aaccording to Drewry,liner companies have canceled 5%of the planned voyages on the east-west main lanes during the 35th to 39th weeks(28 August to 1 October),the stability of which indicates that liner companies still have expectations for peak season demand in September.From the perspective of market returning to normal,it is expected that conventional seasonal factors will play a role.The National Retail Federation(NRF)of the U.S.estimated that container cargo imports at major American ports will moderately decline after reaching peak in August.Therefore,as the market gradually enters the traditional off-season,freight rates may face increasing downward pressure.In 2024,new capacity of 2.99m TEUs are unprecedentedly expected to be delivered.However,demand will also moderately rebound with lower inflation,end of interest rate hikes,and retailers completing destocking,creating a better situation than 2023.Therefore,the market outlook will depend on whether liner companies can properly deploy the large number of new deliveries.International Container Shipping Market Overview:Rates Rebound COSCO SHIPPING R&D栏目责编：陶润元