国债与外债.ppt

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,国债与外债,国债,国债，又称国家公债，是国家以其信用为基础，按照债的一般原则，通过向社会筹集资金所形成的债权债务关系。国债是由国家发行的债券，是中央政府为筹集财政资金而发行的一种政府债券，是中央政府向投资者出具的、承诺在一定时期支付利息和到期偿还本金的债权债务凭证，由于国债的发行主体是国家，所以它具有最高的信用度，被公认为是最安全的投资工具。,国债的发行主要是为了弥补财政赤字与偿还旧债。,国债发行阶段划分,国债发行可分为三个阶段,一：,1950,年。当时为了保证仍在进行的革命战争及国民经济恢复，发行了人民胜利拆实公债。,二：,19541958,年。为了进行社会主义建设，分五次发行了国家经济建设公债。,三：改革开放以来。从理论上矫正了“既无内债，又无外债，是社会主义优越性”的错误思想。从,1980,年开始发行国债。之后积极完善国债制度，科学的确定国债规模，并按社会主义市场经济要求，不断强化国债作用。依据国债管理制度，又可将这一阶段细分为,19812005,及,2006,至今。原因在于,2006,年我国开始推行国债余额管理制度。,国债种类,品 种,面 值（亿元）,期 限,发行价格,(,元,),票面利率,(%),发行时间,发行场所,计划发行,实际发行,一、储蓄国债（凭证式）,1900.00,1900.00,(,一期,),250.00,250.00,1,年,100.000,2.60,3,月,1,日,-3,月,21,日,社会,250.00,250.00,3,年,100.000,3.73,(,五期,),100.00,100.00,3,年,100.000,4.25,12,月,6,日,-12,月,20,日,社会,60.00,60.00,5,年,100.000,4.60,二、储蓄国债（电子式）,1400.00,1296.27,(,一期,),200.00,200.00,1,年,100.000,2.60,4,月,10,日,-4,月,25,日,个人,(,十一期,),90.00,90.00,5,年,100.000,4.60,11,月,15,日,-11,月,28,日,个人,三、记账式附息,#,11472.50,(,一期,),260.00,260.00,2,年,100.000,2.01,1,月,28,日,银行间、交易所,(,二期,),260.00,260.00,10,年,100.000,3.43,2,月,4,日,银行间、交易所,(,柜台,),(,四十一期,),280.00,307.80,10,年,100.000,3.77,12,月,16,日,银行间、交易所,(,柜台,),四、记账式贴现,3360.00,3109.40,折合年收益率（,%,）,(,一期,),150.00,142.50,91,天,99.690,1.28,4,月,12,日,银行间、交易所,(,十九期,),200.00,167.60,91,天,99.111,3.68,12,月,27,日,银行间、交易所,财政赤字与发债额,年份,赤字,年份,发债额,1989,-158.88,1990,375.45,1990,-146.49,1991,461.4,1991,-237.14,1992,669.68,1992,-258.83,1993,739.22,1993,-293.35,1994,1175.25,1994,-574.52,1995,1549.76,1995,-581.52,1996,1967.28,1996,-529.56,1997,2476.82,1997,-582.42,1998,3310.93,1998,-922.23,1999,3715.03,1999,-1743.59,2000,4180.1,2000,-2491.27,2001,4604,2001,-2516.54,2002,5679,2002,-3149.51,2003,6153.53,2003,-2934.7,2004,6879.34,2004,-2090.42,2005,7042,2005,-2280.99,2006,8883.3,2006,-1662.53,2007,23483.44,2007,1540.43,2008,8558.21,2008,-1262.31,2009,15000,2009,-7781.63,2010,1900,2010,-6772.65,2011,1400,亿元,从上表及上图中我们可以看出国债发行额与赤字呈正相关。即当年国债发行额依托于去年赤字额。,国债发行额在大部分时间内是大于赤字额的。原因在于国债发行一方面用于弥补赤字，另一方面用于偿还旧债。可以看出我国自,90,年代以来基本上是积极的财政政策。,赤字额在,2007,年呈正数。原因在于,2007,年我国发行了两万多亿的国债，而国债是可以计入对当年财政收入的。,小组分析,国债发行额在,2007,年猛增至两万亿，之后便开始逐年递减，自,2010,年开始，发行额甚至低于赤字额。我们认为原因在于,2006,年开始，我国推行国债余额管理制，以控制期国债规模。,2007,年超量国债发行主要在于应对美国次贷危机。,2009,年国债发行额一度达一万五千亿规模在于国家进一步采取措施以应对金融危机。,国债规模衡量指标,赤字率,赤字率是衡量财政风险的一个重要指标，是指财政赤字占国内生产总值的比重。,国债负担率,国债负担率,=(,累积国债余额,/,年度国内生产值,)100%,。这一指标着眼于国债存量，反映了整个国民经济对国债的承受能力。,目前国际上较为公认的以上两个指标的参考值分别为,3%,和,60%,。,国债依存度,依存度,1,：当年国债发行额,/,（中央财政支出,+,还本付息指出）依存度,2,：（当年发行额,-,还本数）,/,中央财政支出。,依存度,3,：（当年发行额,-,还本数）,/,全部财政支出。,国债规模衡量,国债余额,是指中央政府历年的预算差额，即预算赤字和预算盈余相互冲抵后的赤字累计额和经全国人大常委会批准的特别国债的累计额。,国债余额管理,是指立法机关不具体限定中央政府当年国债发行额度，而是通过限定一个年末不得突破的国债余额上限以达到科学管理国债规模的方式。,温总谈地方债务,1981,年来的赤字率,我国赤字率历年来处于上下波动中，但总体上而言一直低于,3%,的国际参考值,。,国债负担率,年份,国债余额,国债负担率,1981,8221.33,168.0717034,1982,8249.67,154.9713715,1983,8286.61,138.9752513,1984,8335.04,115.6351303,1985,8385.33,93.00461378,1986,8473.42,82.46493634,1987,8563.14,71.01263214,1988,8757.17,58.21493741,1989,8967.78,52.77549193,1990,9152.83,49.02998226,1991,9367.43,43.00635977,1992,9598.54,35.65119095,1993,10001.54,28.30577152,1994,10677.43,22.1533296,1995,11348.83,18.66776417,1996,12004.20,16.86537627,1997,12562.7,15.90758162,1998,13520.7,16.01935402,1999,15312.3,17.07493633,2000,17909.2,18.05098065,2001,20505.47,18.69995723,2002,23621.34,19.6300275,2003,26822.63,19.74825925,2004,30030.38,18.78327007,2005,32614.21,17.63527306,2006,35015.28,16.18721444,2007,52074.65,19.59090707,2008,53271.54,16.96300452,2009,60237.68,17.67004489,2010,67548.11,16.83643282,我国国债负担率自,1982,年以来是逐年降低的，自,1988,年开,始低于,60%,，并且近年来一直低于,20%,国债依存度,单位,/%,年份,依存度,1,依存度,2,依存度,3,1981,10.61376245,1.628710.895108,1982,11.85585229,4.34789,2.304103,1983,9.900632114,4.86309,2.62075,1984,8.3861034,5.42129,2.846279,1985,10.76292809,6.3238,2.509168,1986,15.59468484,10.5325,3.995174,1987,18.32061894,10.6098,3.964982,1988,29.37545428,22.961,7.788585,1989,29.4413867,23.6968,7.458442,1990,31.42182832,18.42276.001122,1991,34.49435934,19.6735,6.336701,1992,41.62062386,19.7456,6.175779,1993,44.84796272,30.7151,8.681042,1994,52.14549714,38.5248,11.66812,1995,53.92814267,33.6476,9.839208,1996,56.80559486,30.4643,8.256578,1997,55.64799691,22.0513,6.048046,1998,60.43475245,30.6504,8.871958,1999,61.27520675,43.4575,13.68324,2000,58.87738444,47.1078,16.36786,2001,59.20972253,45.0115,13.735,2002,60.83667298,46.0131,14.12891,2003,59.32634295,43.1435,12.987,2004,59.48068724,40.6349,11.26044,2005,55.45170064,35.536,9.191289,2006,53.92436275,24.0314,5.939901,2007,131.4411123,149.094,34.2686,2008,41.33304742,896939,1.912189,2009,64.40629207,45.6623,9.129943,2010,17.95887041,45.7168,8.133595,国际上公认的国债依存度警戒线为,20%,。由上图可知，只有依存度三的数据在大部分情况下是低于警戒线的。但目前来讲，我国规定地方政府不能发债（虽然实际上已负债累累），也就是说国家编制的国债数据并未包括地方债务，那只有依存度二的数据较为可靠。那很明显，我国财政支出对国债的依存度是很高的！,外债,外债功能,外债弥补财政之子的功能表现为平衡国际收支,筹集建设资金。购入本国本国短缺的原材料与设备；引进先进设备与先进技术。,增量型调节经济。总供给与总需求矛盾时，可举借外债以扩大总供给。当产业结构失调时，可通过举借外债以增强薄弱环节,外债种类及结构,债 务 类 型,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,总计,(,亿美元,),2965.5,3385.9,3892.2,3901.6,4286.47,5489.38,按债务类型分,外国政府贷款,271.95,276.67,300.57,324.73,349.23,320.84,国际金融组织贷款,267.88,278.11,283.71,270.54,333.75,355.46,国际商业贷款,1362.62,1635.1,1820.9,2010.34,1986.5,2701.08,贸易信贷,1063,1196,1487,1296,1617,2112,按偿还期限分,长期债务余额,1249.02,1393.6,1535.34,1638.76,1693.88,1732.43,短期债务余额,1716.5,1992.3,2356.9,2262.8,2592.59,3756.95,构成,(%),100,100,100,100,100,100,按债务类型分,外国政府贷款,9.170460293,8.17124,7.722368,8.322996,8.147263,5.84474,国际金融组织贷款,9.033215309,8.213769,7.289194,6.934078,7.786127,6.475413,国际商业贷款,45.9490811,48.29144,46.78331,51.52604,46.34349,49.20556,贸易信贷,35.84555724,35.32296,38.20461,33.21714,37.72335,38.47429,按偿还期限分,长期债务余额,42.11836115,41.15892,39.44659,42.00226,39.5169,31.55967,短期债务余额,57.88231327,58.84108,60.55444,57.99672,60.4831,68.44033,由上表得，我国目前国际商业贷款与贸易信贷所占外债总额的比重较大,;,短期债务比重大于长期债务比重。,国际商业贷款比重大有利于我国更自主地运用所借资金，但利息较高。在偿债期限方面，短期债务比重已远远超过,25%,上限数值，需要注意。,外债余额逐年上升，已突破,5000,亿美元,贸易信贷与商业贷款逐年递增，政府与金融组织借款逐年降低，从种类而言的话外债构成日趋合理,长期债务逐年降低，短期债务逐年增高，这可能是由于我国不断减少对国家或国际金融组织债务，而增加对国际商业银行贷款造成的,外债风险指标,负债率。,当年债务余额占,GNP,的比值。安全警戒线为,25%,。,偿债率。,当年债务还本付息额占商品和劳务出口总额的比值。其安全警戒线为,20%,债务率。,当年债务余额占商品和劳务出口总额的比值。其安全警戒线为,100%,。,外债风险指标衡量,单位：,%,年 份,偿 债 率,负 债 率,债 务 率,1985,2.7,5.2,56,1986,15.4,7.3,72.1,1987,9,9.4,77.1,1988,6.5,10,87.1,1989,8.3,9.2,86.4,1990,8.7,13.5,91.6,1991,8.5,14.9,91.9,1992,7.1,14.4,87.9,1993,10.2,13.9,96.5,1994,9.1,17.1,78,1995,7.6,15.2,72.4,1996,6,14.2,67.7,1997,7.3,14.5,63.2,1998,10.9,15.2,70.4,1999,11.3,15.3,68.7,2000,9.2,13.5,52.1,2001,7.5,15.3,67.9,2002,7.9,13.9,55.45,2003,6.9,13.4,45.23,2004,3.2,13.6,40.15,2005,3.1,13.2,35.44,2006,2.1,12.7,31.89,2007,2,11.5,29,2008,1.8,8.6,24.67,2009,2.87,8.73,32.16,2010,1.63,9.34,29.25,总体而言，我国偿债率与负债率均低于,20%,，债务率呈不断下降趋势，且远低于,100%,。可以看出我国外债风险指标均处于警戒线以下，我国外债国际信誉度较高。,谢谢聆听,