1、单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,2014/5/8,#,再售期权、通胀幻觉与中国股市泡沫的,影响因素分析摘要,中文摘要,泡沫意味着股价偏离了其真实价值,而真实价值由其未来现金流和贴现率决定。再售期权与通胀幻觉两因素分别从投资者对股票未来现金流分布的信念差异和对贴现率估计的偏差的角度解释股价泡沫的形成和膨胀。本文以,19972007,年我国,A,股上市公司为样本,利用动态剩余收益估价模型估计我国股市的基本价值进而估计股市泡沫水平和波动性,;,在此基础上,检验再售期权和通胀幻觉对我国股市泡沫的解释作用。本文发现,再售期权和通胀幻觉都是影响我国股市泡
2、沫的重要因素,但是再售期权具有更强解释作用。这一结论与我国股市存在严重异质信念和严格禁止卖空的特征相吻合,也为有效监控我国股市风险提供了新的视角。,Abstract,Bubble,means that prices deviate from its true value and real value is decided by its future cash flows and the discount rate.,Resale,option and inflation illusion two factors respectively from investors future cash f
3、lows to the stock distribution belief differences and to estimate the discount rate of deviation Angle to explain the formation of the stock price bubbles and inflation.,Based,on the 1997-2007 a-share listed companies in our country as samples,using the dynamic residual income valuation model to est
4、imate the fundamental value of the stock market in our country,in turn,estimate stock market bubble levels and volatility;On this basis,the inspection resale option and the inflation illusion explanation for Chinas stock market bubble.,This,paper demonstrated that the resale option and inflation ill
5、usion are the important factors that affect Chinas stock market bubble,but the resale option has better explanation.,This,conclusion with stock market in our country there are serious fits with the characteristics of heterogeneous beliefs and short selling is strictly forbidden,and also provides a new perspective for effective monitoring in our country stock market risk.,谢谢观看！,
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