巴西绿色经济潜力.pdf

MEETING BRAZIL SPOTENTIAL AS AGREEN ECONOMY2ZTHE WORLD BANKI l WORLDBANKGROUPDECwww.woridbank.org 2022-i.cPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorizedits energy sector(one of theGobal cimte change and local most difficult to decarbonize wor.dwide)areadyactivities may contribute to reach e comprises e considerebe share of renewebles,tipping point beyond which arge areas and most of Brazi s GHG emissions come from enabe Brazil to growof the Amezon basin wou.d no onger land conversion and agriculture,which mekes its economy and.ead to a greener,be able to provide crucial ecosystem emissions reduction e relatively low-cost option.richer,more susteinebe and incusiveservices,causing irreversible damage Based on Brezils experience and techno ogy on future.to the structure of the biome.low energy/forest management,Brazil is in e greatposition to export services and techno ogies andbecome e gobl leader in cimte change.BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022|Mecting Brazss potental as a gren economny,incuding trade policy including two main areas:(1)appropriate including(i)curbing deforestationreforms to integrate in gloo.va ue pricing,through subsidy reforms and fisca and scaling up cimate-informedchains oeyono commodities and re-reforms(including carbon pricing andscape management(ii)balance Brazila growth mode,icrease mechanisms)to aign economic incentives;transitioning to greener and resikenteffcency along critcal vale chains,andii)measures for resikence and a just energy,transport,and infrastructuredevelop competitiveness in green vaue transition,which incudes investment in for industries and manufacturing,cna:ns,leverage its low-carbon energy peoples heath and education,as wel as and(iii)enabing resilient and ow-matri to nuild a ow emission inousria relevant labor and social protection carbon cities.sector,and increase investment in iterventinsinfrastructure.BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022|Mecting BrQz s potentol as a gren economyreducedwater availabikty and extended droughts are becoming more frequent,problems areexpected to worsen over time.This has impkcations for hydropower(a ready impacts ofwater avai:ability of up to 20%),agriculture(80%rainfed agriculture will suffer withoutirrigation infrastructure),and urban water use,and threatens BrazH.s unique ecosystems,especialy the Amazon and Cerrado biomes.Disasters also significantly disrupt Brazils transport and power infrastructure,affectingeconomic competitiveness.,especially residents ofinformal settements,are particularly vulnerabe.BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022 Mecting BrQz s potentol as a gren economyWith further forest loss anddegradation,Brazl could soon reach a tipping point beyond which large areas of theAmazon basin,within and outside Brazil,would no longer have enough rainfal to supportthe native ecosystems or provide essential ecosystem services to Brazils economy.Theprojected impact from a potential Amazon tipping point on Brazils cumu ative GDP to2050 has been conservatively estimated at about R$920 bllion(US$184 bllion).Economic modeing shows how climate-re ated reductions inagricutura income,extreme weather events,food price changes,impacts on health,andreduced labor productivity due to heat could exacerbate poverty.BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022 Mecting Brazss potentoal as a green economyGHG Emissions by sector-Average 2015-2019-2 dM_U LUCF Arcltr Enrgy Elctiit/Ha Manf/Cons Trnpor o Industr a ste*Buidny M teaccountIng for more thrn 50 percent of aH emisslons,compared wlth 20percent globy,with deforestation bein re sponsible for the totalty of the net!ncreasen recent years(but also of the net decrease In the ear.y 2000Os).Renewables account for roughy 48 per cent ofthe Brazi2n energy matrx and over 80 percent of ts power matrix,compared to wor.daverages of approxmately 15 percent and 27 percent,respectively.BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022 1 Meeting Brazls potential as a green econornyproviding a strong competitive advantage in adecarbonizing world.could become a globas eader in exporting services and goods,incuding in theproduction of wind turbine,climate smart agriculture,ethano,green steelproduction,forest management,electric buses;batteries,and green hydrogen.BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022 Mecting Brazss potental as a gren economyzero lege.deforestation by 2028 and net zero by mercial p.antations(native and exotc)and restoration,clmate smartagriculture and agroforestry,Integrated land management systems,pasturerestoration,protected areas(reaching-600 MtCO2e per year negative emissions).Agricultural productivity gaisBRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022 1 Meeting Brzl s potentia es a green econornyShftng towards a significnt ncrease ln renewabeelect4icity(up to 99 percent).5 Higher electrification rates and hydrogen depIcyment n theand rnada shft from road trnsportatlon towards rl and waterways,andhigher partJpation of pubte tnsport in urb9n reas.6i ch g energy-use secors.7ct 2In waste,energy use in industry ond agricuture,fueproduction,C nd berirngs.BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022 1 Mccting BrGzWls potential as a green econornyBrazillChinaIndonesiaEU-IndiaRussiaBrazl has the capacity and the policy Mexicous Iinstruments to curb ilfega deforestation,as shown between 2004 and 2012,with Australiaa drop of deforestation by more than 80 percent even during a time of hihg 0 500 1000 1500 2,000 2.500 3,000Mitigation potential(MtCO,e yr)commodity prices,which reduced GHG emissions by more than 65 percent.3530Actions include strengthening forest aw enforcement and governance,address 25land grabbing and extensive ctte ranching,and facilitate just transition for rural 20households.At the same time Bmzils forest economy can significantly benefit 10 und1Cens nopn:from the emerging carbon market and take advantage of degraded lnds.5-p-s sBRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022 Meting Brazs potental as a green economybyadequately strengthening(arbitration,sateLte monitoring of forests mediation,and other(PRODES,DETER)and and moderntze administrative procedures)a00environmental enforcement and acceerate the and enforce credbe penalties foriegal occupation endagencies through resourcing,registrtion,anaysis,andefostetion nddeforestation of land andtraining,and interagency validation processes.rooted lend-Ehoing activties.coNeboretion.BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022 Mecting BrQz s potentol as a gren economyBrazH.has the highest forestryyiei globaly thanks to favorable cimatic conditions and decades ofresearch and could expand to the Amazon.A combination of appropriatefinancing mechanisms,paired with carbon finance,investments inincluding the designation,mopping,demarcation and ogistics and fiscal incentives would stow the private sector to invest in aregistration of al.federa.and state protected areas,indigenous peoples new forest economy in the Amazon,Cerrado and Meta Atantica.lends,agrarian reform settlements.2.to attack ilIege.deforestation more efficiently and 5avoid the expansion of the deforestation frontier.Developing market access,improve logistics,developmentof oca capacity and research and faclittion of private communitypartnerships in the Amazon wil provide e sustainable income to,including ndigenous Peop es and traditiona communities as an aternetive to ilIega exploration of natura munities,smell farmers to reduce poverty in the frontier.BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022|Mecting Brazs potental as a gren economytofurther promote the adoption of ow-carbon and resikent agriculture practicesby scaing up the ABC+program,and increasing 0ans:lmits for farmers w:th onapproved Environmenta.Regularization Program(PRA);Dedicated support tothe poorest famy farmers shoud be enhlanced,including support to famHyfarmers CAR regstraton to aHow them to access rumra credit.to reword the adoption of goood,practices and the efficient use of areas that can be farmed or ranched.Implementation of a range of pokey measures and support for scaing up 3ck:mate-Informed andscape management and fosterng ckImate-smartagrlcuture wiH need to be taored across and within blomes and rewardcimte smart and resient management of nturma assets.(:nparticular on ntegrated agro-sywvo-pastora systems,agroforestry and onoptions to reduce methane emissions from catte).BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022|Merting BrQzIs potentol os a green econoryQ to avoid adverse impact on forma.a nd informal laor uin areas.Potential for productivity gains fromdifferent land use strategies5 ond coverage for agricutUra production to catasyze cKmateresHience and productvity gains.n deverin market sobttions forrsustainaoe food systems,by scacIng-up green certificatIons and ow-carbonsustainable traceabfity protocovs,as weK as carbon market initiatves.by strengcthening the(lmpementation of the forest code by scalrng up the Ccadstro Amrbienta.Rura.(CAFR)and enab n Ig investments in agroforestry and o bw trading of APP rights.BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022 1 Meeting BrozWs potntal.o c greeo conornyCost of NZPS vs.DDESas ower operating costs would compensate,including replacing plansinvestment needs.A net-zero Power System(NZPS)would of instalng 8GW of new thermal with increasedsignificative financial snd economic costs.DDES vs.BAU-mnstaled Capacity(GW)The DeepDecarbonization of the Energy System(DDES)assumes green hydrogen,e-buses,batteryincreased level of electrification and the use of green components.This would aso accelerate its energyhydrogen for fuel switch and export at comparable economy-transition,diversify exports,and attractwide costs but require considerable upfront investments.investment.BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022 Mecting Brazss potental as a gren economyproail;aode veiculos nos cent ros dascidadesdeSao PauoBrazil could adopt the Avoid-Shift-mprove framework to decarbonize its PortoAlegre e Belo Horizontetransport system and make it more inclusive:which can acso Improve to naturai hazards woud hncrease upfrontpeop.es access to services and economic opportunities.Low cost but pay back over time(with 2x return over each$1Emission Zones In 1arge cities con reduce emissions and Invested).generote income that con be used to Improve pubictronsport services.tr2 sp rtserics.Reduqcesde ermsscesesperadasern2025-50 de Melhoratincudng by increased e.ectrificaton,of trucks and eEvitarEstradjasnotransporte decarga(MMC2)wiit require.crge.ocomotlves or shifting to hydrogen fues.nvestments iiom elnisy.30m.ent 5Investments:n ramiwcys cnd wcterwcys,whe modac shift:n wik acso be needed to e.ectrify buses and kght vehicies,to mipassenger transport wI.require improving pubkIc transit cover the costs of vehlc.es cs wek cs charging I2pservce nd passenger raiL infrastructure.I liarvaninnni9y offictonqcyi*A9pecoM1However,retrofitting roads outside the normal replacement schedule has a benefit-cost ratio below 1,except coafqeS0noDmon Ifor the most critical assetssuch as the main corridors for soy exports).G BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022|Mecting Brztzs potentol ns a gron economyGreenand buiiding certification programs,Soiid Waste Managementsecure flnancng to Invest In mutpie areas(e.g.urban,system that inciude methane capture and destructian,aW W water,transportwaste),inciuding through increased Travei demand management measures that may switchprivate sector engagement and investing in natUre-based users to addltiana use of pubiic transport,andand grey infrastrUctUre meaSUres to augment urban Introduction of ciean fuei aternatives in the pubicreslilence.transport fieet.With 87 percent of the population living annd translt-to address the comblnedin urban areas and increased disaster oriented deveiopment couid have a strong impact in chaienges of sociai exciusion,iagging atcess tohazards,actions to make cities low-reducing GHG emisslons but aso in increasing infrastrUctUre and services,and vuinerability to extremecarbon,more resikent and inclusive is a productivity.ciimatic events,through a combinaton of ard and softtop priority:cimate action in cities Interventions.Large-scaie ciimate-adaptive infrastructurerequires stronger Urban planning,soiutlons combined with non-structUra measures such asmanagement,access to finance and and support to the most strengthening eariy warning and dsaster preparednesspubic-private coordination.exposed cities.and response systems.G BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022|Mocting BrQz s potentcl cs c grccn econorny50,0 1.8 Lcc 1640.0 1 47 30.0 1.020.0 f l080610,3 0 400 00Proposaes for(1.3%of GDP)in revenue from foss.fue s by 2030,which coud in turn oa 2 O 00tax reforms In Braz hoave been debated for severa.be used to promote productivity,inc.us:on,and adapattion.Because a carbon Q NCFiscal revenues bn US$(ihs)years and coud provide 0n opportunity to pursue pricng pokoy can have detrimenta.:MpaCts on equity,a share of the:ncome Fiscal revenues%of GDP(rhs)the:mpementation of a revenue-neUtra Carbon tax,would need to be used to protect the Most affectedwike revIsing and eventUaky phasng out subsidies by price shocks.to emIssion-intensive activitles.500400300-20.0The BraZkan Congress:s discussing a bi on nationa ETS focusing 1on the industry sector.A pretminary step for the estaboshment of an ETS 00 0001woud be the creaton of a measUring,reporting,and verification(MRV)system-10.0for.arge GHG emitters.AgricLture and LULUCF are not good contenders foran ETS,but forest offsets coud provide opportunities for emission reductions.MCoal natural gas Non-road oilHGasoline ODiesel OLPG&keroseneaREsubsdies oNetBRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022 Merting BrQzWs potental s a green econornyTo close theTrade poicy reform that infrastructure gap,Brazil wil need to significantdycreate opportunties to Integrate in regional and globa increase:ts investments in infrastructure,but thevaue chains beyond primary commodities.additional needs linked to cimate change do not discussed in more detaichange drasticaly this chalengein the policy notes onReducing the CustoBrasil through business environment reforms and Redowth(here),odopt:ng o reform of the tox system.drop-out rates,reversing learning osses and infrastructure(here)andincreasing the quaity of education.education(here).byrevamping the current underperforming innovationpoleces.G BRAZIL POLICY NOTES 2022|Mecting Brazss potental as a gren economyAn Adoptive SocialProtection(ASP)system combines different sectora approaches of SocialProtection,Disaster Risk Management,and Climate Change Adaptation to buHdthe resilience of the poor and vulnerabe by enhancing their capacity to prepare for,cope with,and adapt to covariate shocks.Brazils SP system is welt establishedFor onstance,a carbonbut there is room to expand its capacity to respond to shocks and to modernizepricing po icy could have detrimenta.impacts on equity,unless a share of the the social registry with information on vunerabilty to cimGte change.revenues is used to protect the bottom of the population most affected by priceshocks.The transition from non-Social protection can hep the mitigation of deforestation through Payment forgreen jobs can ead to long-term impacts on certain groups of workers.Ac