流行病学 绪论.ppt

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,Department of Epidemiology,Public Health College of Harbin Medical University,*,流行病学绪论,Introduction of Epidemiology,哈尔滨医科大学流行病学教研室,Department of epidemiology,，,Harbin Medical University,1,医学,Medicine,Basic medicine,Clinical medicine,Preventive medicine,Epidemiology has always been a,necessary part of medicine practice.,流行病学一直医学实践必不可少的部分,基础医学,临床医学,预防医学,2,医学之母,The mother of medicine,Because,the epidemiology is from,macro point,of view to observe the any question.e.g.from macro point of view to study the disease and health.,因为流行病学是从,宏观,观察问题，,亦即从宏观研究疾病和健康,3,CONTENTS,目录,History,Definition,Methods,Principle,Application,Features,Prospect,历史,定义,方法,原理,应用,特点,展望,4,Brief History of Epidemiology,流行病学简史,学科形成前期,-18,世纪,学科形成期,18,世纪末,-20,世纪初,学科发展期,（现代流行病学时期）,20,世纪,40,、,50,年代,-,Before the form of Epidemiology,-1700s,Forming of,Epidemiology,End of 1700s,beginning of 20 century,Development of Epidemiology,（,Modern Epidemiology,）,40s-50s of 20 century,5,Earlier stage:,-,18,th,century,-Hippocrates(460-377 BC),A First,Epidemiologist,Epidemic,Epidemic,On Airs,Waters and Places,-,中国：,“,疫,”,、,“,时疫,”,、,“,疫疠,”,From there is the,human history of civilization,to the 18th century.During this time,This discipline(branch)not,yet forms,but had its embryonic form.,6,Hippocrates(460-377 BC),第一个流行病学家,主要的流行病学著作：,Epidemic,Epidemic,On Airs,Waters and Places,中国：,“,疫,”“,时疫,”“,疫疠,”,一、,学科形成前期,-18,世纪,自从有,人类文明,到,18,世纪,.,这期间,该学科（分支）尚未形成，但已形成雏形,.,7,The Black Death in Europe ca.1300s欧洲黑死病,8,1347-1351,年,鼠疫导致,2400,万人死亡,9,Italy-Venice,-the earliest quarantine,15,th,Century:,The people in order to avoid the infectious disease spreading,the request external ships must,Away(outside)from,the port 40 days.That is(,quadraginta,(,latin,=40).,1423:,set up first,infectious diseases,hospital,中国：隋朝开设,“,疠人坊,”,(leprosy hospital),隔离麻风病人,10,意大利威尼斯最早的检疫,14,世纪 外来船只必须在港外停留检疫,40,天,quadraginta,(,拉丁语，意思为,40,),quarantine,1423,年成立了首家传染病隔离医院,中国：隋朝开设,“,疠人坊,”,以隔离麻风病人,11,-John,Graunt,(1620-1674),Use death data to study distribution,of disease,Make first life table calculate,expectation of life,Summarizes death process with,probability of survival and death,Producce,control group idea,His contribution is the first time to introduce,Statistics to Epidemiology,Natural and Political Observations Made Upon the Bills of Mortality,12,John,Graunt,(1620-1674),利用死亡数据进行死亡分布及规律性研究,创制了第一张寿命表，计算期望寿命,用生存概率和死亡概率来概括死亡经历,提出设立比较组的思想,将统计学引入流行病学领域,Natural and Political Observations Made Upon the Bills of Mortality,13,Graunts,Observations,Excess of males over females among births but higher mortality in males,High infant mortality rate,Seasonal variation in morbidity,Acute versus chronic diseases,Urban versus rural mortality,Rural migration to the city,First attempts at a life table,出生时男性多于女性，但男性死亡高,婴儿死亡率高,发病呈季节变动,比较急性与慢性疾病,城市与农村死亡比较,农村象城市流动,首次尝试寿命表,14,Lind.James 17161795,-A surgeon of English navy,-By means of Epidemiologic experiment,Discovered,Orange prevent scurvy,2.Form stage,Start the experimental Epidemiology,15,James Lind(1716-1794),VitC,缺乏,坏血病,(1747),开创了流行病学临床试验的先河,二、学科形成期,16,-Edward Jenner,(1796),He used cowpox immunization in preventing smallpox,.,17,Edward Jenner,(1749-1823),(1796),接种牛痘,预防天花,开创了主动免疫的先河,施民安,.,琴纳发现牛痘预防天花的经过,.,见,:,钱宇平,主编,.,流行病学研究实例,(,第,1,卷,).,北京,:,人民卫生出版社，,1984.p38-42.,18,In 1979 WHO declared that smallpox has been eliminated in the whole world.,Smallpox eradication should be attributed to his research.,19,Sir,Percivall,Pott,:1775,English,surgeon,in London,We all best known for“,Potts,fracture”,He is one of earliest accounts of cause and effect linkage for an occupational carcinogen.,He found that the scrotal cancer was particularly in the workers of,Chimney(stovepipe)cleaning,20,Sir,Percivall,Pott,:1775,英国外科医生,以,“,Potts,骨折著称,他最早将职业致癌物与病因联系起来,他发现阴囊癌为烟筒清洁工所特有,21,William Farr(1807-1883),Statistician(English),First person who routine,collect population and death data,in England,Put important words:,Standard mortality,Person year,、,Dose-response relationship,、,P=ID,22,William Farr(1807-1883),在英国首创人口和死亡的常规资料收集,提出许多流行病学的重要概念：标化死亡率、人年、剂量反应关系、患病率,患病率发病率,病程,现代流行病学的奠基人之一,公共卫生运动的领导者之一,23,-,London Epidemiological Society(1850),established,It is a first one in the world,It is showed that the discipline already formed,24,London Epidemiological Society(1850),全世界,第一个,流行病学学会,标志着,流行病学学科,的,形成,25,-John Snow(1848-1854),26,The great French Bacteriologist,Louis Pasteur(1822-1895),He established the Germ theory,Manufacture,animal vaccine,:,-anthrax,-fowl cholera,-swine erysipelas,-Rabies-virus-vaccine,Pasteurization 60,0,C 30,the new useful disinfection method,27,伟大的法国微生物学家,Louis Pasteur(1822-1895),微生物理论,(germ theory),开发了鸡霍乱、炭疽、猪丹毒疫苗,减毒的微生物可以用作免疫,提出狂犬病是由一种显微镜看不到的物质传播的（即病毒），并开发疫苗治疗和预防狂犬病,巴斯德杀菌法,第一节 流行病学发展史,28,3,Development stage,（发展阶段）,(20,th,Century 40,s,50,s-,now),Features,（特点）,:,(1),Spectrum of disease,:,The study area extended from,communicable diseases-to Non-communicable/chronic disease-to health,疾病谱,研究领域从,传染病,非传染病,-,健康,29,Ten leading causes of death 1900 and 1990,30,Children of Polio,脊髓灰质炎患儿,31,Features,（特点）,:,（,2,）,Research,method,from,Survey and,analysis,to,qualitative and quantitative combined,and,macroscopic and microscopic combined,研究方法从,调查分析到定性和定量结合,，,宏观与微观结合,(3),Social,behavior factors,is very important,社会行为因素,非常重要,(4),There are more other related,Branch of epidemiology,emerge,有更多的,流行病学相关,分支出现,32,REVIVAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY:BEGINNING OF,MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY,Main characteristic:,From communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases,Time:,Mid 20,th,Century,First,RCTs,:streptomycin and respiratory,tuberculosis in 1948,Early,case-control studies:smoking and,lung cancer in 1950,Early cohort studies:Framingham Study,in 1948,British Doctors Study in 1951,Sir Austin B.Hill:,The Father of Modern,Epidemiology,Sir Richard Doll:The Godfather of Epidemiology,33,流行病学复兴：现代流行病学的开始,主要特点,:,从传染病倒非传染病,时间,:,20,th,世纪中叶,第一个,RCTs,:,链霉素与肺结核,1948,早期病例对照研究：吸烟和肺癌的关系,1950,早期队列研究,:Framingham,研究,1948,英国医生研究,1951,Sir Austin B.Hill:,The Father of Modern,EpidemiologySir Richard Doll:The Godfather of Epidemiology,34,Kenneth Rothman:The Philosopher in Epidemiology,现代流行病学中的哲学家,Kenneth Rothman,35,ROTHMAN AND MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY,From Study,of distributions to study of causes of disease,In humans and observational:case-control&cohort studies,In order o avoid the,Confounding bias,he suggested:,By means of the,*Restriction and matching,*Standardization,*Stratified analysis,*Adjustment by regression,can be control the confounding bias,36,1992:BIRTH OF EVIDENCE-BASED MEDICINE,1992,年：循证医学诞生,“,A new paradigm for medical practice is emerging in 1992”,出现医学实践进模式,-A New Approach to Teaching the Practice of Medicine,医学教育新方法,37,DAVID SACKETT,Activist in clinical epidemiology,临床流行病学活动家,The pioneer in EBM,循证医学先驱,The first book on EBM,第一本循证医学书,McMaster University Health Science Centre,Chairman of Oxford Centre for EBM,38,WORLD,COCHRANE,COLLABORATION,国际,COCHRANE,合作,In 1992,the very first Cochrane centre was established in Oxford.,Mission:Collecting,summarizing and disseminating evidence from organized research.,1992,年第一个,COCHRANE,中心在牛津建立,使命：收集、总结和传播研究证据,39,Today there is a total of 15 national or regional Cochrane centers and over 40 review groups world wide.,Chinese national Cochrane/EBM Centre is in Sichuan University,目前，全球有,15,个国家和地区,COCHRANE,中心和,40,多个评价组,中国国家循证医学中心在四川大学,WORLD,COCHRANE,COLLABORATION,国际,COCHRANE,合作,40,Definition of Epidemiology,流行病学定义,Epidemiology,:,the study of the distribution and determinants and the occurrence of health-related states or events in specified and the application of this study to control health problems.,(Last),41,the meaning of this definition,Disease,Population,Distribution prevention&control,Social medicine,疾病,人群,分布,预防空中,社会医学,42,The relationship between epidemiology and clinical medicine,Populations,Studies/assessments,Prevention,Evaluation,Planning,Individuals,Diagnosis,Treatment,Curing,Caring,43,Study methods,研究方法,-Observation -Experimental-Theoretical,44,STUDY,Surveillance,Observation,Hypothesis testing,Analytic research,Experiments,Theoretical epidemiology,监测,观察,假设检验,分析研究,实验,理论流行病学,45,Distribution,PlaceTime,Persons,46,Determinants,by means of:,Physical,Biological,Social,Cultural,Behavioral Factors,47,Health-related states and events,健康相关状态和事件,Diseases,Causes of death,Behavior:Tobacco,Alcohol,Drug use,Reactions to preventive regimens,Provision and use of health services,48,Epidemiology,Population Medicine,群体医学,The Language of Quantification,定量语言,49,Factors influencing the spread of disease,Socioeconomic conditions,Sanitation,Nutrition,Lifestyle,Age,Gender,社会经济状况,卫生,营养,生活方式,年龄性别,50,Principle of epidemiology,流行病学原理,Distribution,Epidemic process,Relationship of human and environment,Causation,Causal inference,Prevention,Theoretical epidemiology,流行,分布,人语自然关系,病因,病因推断,预防,理论流行病学,51,Application of epidemiology,流行病学应用,1,.Determine great public health Problems,2.Response and deal with emergency event,3.,Surveillance,of disease related,重大公共卫生问题的确定,突发事件的应急与处理,疾病相关监测,52,Application of epidemiology,流行病学应用,4.,Study the cause and risk factor of disease,5.To study the,natural history,and,prognosis,of disease.,6.Evaluate the prevent effect,疾病病因和危险因素研究,疾病的自然史研究,疾病防治的效果评价,53,一、重大公共卫生问题的确定,Determine great public health Problems,图,1-1,中国,1954-1998,年死亡率变化趋势,Others,Injuries&poisoning,Non-communicable diseases,Communicable,maternal and child diseases,54,(2006,中国卫生统计提要,),表,1-1,2005,年中国部分市县前十位疾病死亡专率及死亡原因构成,55,顺位,城市,农村,疾病,患病率,构成,疾病,患病率,构成,1,高血压,54.7,22.8,高血压,16.4,13.6,2,糖尿病,16.3,6.8,胃肠炎,10.5,8.7,3,脑血管病,13,5.4,类风湿性关节炎,8.7,7.2,4,缺血性心脏病,12.4,5.2,慢性阻塞性肺病,7.3,6,5,胃肠炎,9.8,4.1,胆结石胆囊炎,4.7,3.9,6,胆结石胆囊炎,8.5,3.5脑血管病,4.4,3.7,7,类风湿性关节炎,8.4,3.5,锥间盘疾病,4,3.3,8,慢性阻塞性肺病,8.2,3.4,消化性溃疡,3.8,3.2,9,锥间盘疾病,8.1,3.4,缺血性心脏病,2,1.6,10,消化性溃疡,3.4,1.4,糖尿病,1.9,1.6,表,1-2,2003,年中国居民慢性病患病率,(,),及疾病构成,(%),(,第三次国家卫生服务调查结果,),56,二、突发事件的应急与处理,Response and deal with emergency event,SARS,人感染猪链球菌病,Meningitis Caused by Streptococcus,Suis,57First stage,1.22.28,Second stage,3.84.23,Third stage,4.245.31,Fourth,6.16.24,图,1-2 Time distribution of SARS,58,图,1-3,59,图,1-4,60,Cause of isolation,NO.of isolated,NO.of incidence,Attack rate(%),Contacted SARS patient,630,24,3.8,Contacted SARS patient but excluded,140,0,0,Contacted person contacted SARS patient,130,0,0,Diagnosed as SARS,，,but excluded and disparage of hospital,45,0,0,Patient with Fever or contact with Patient with Fever,31,0,0,No contact with SARS or close contact person,26,0,0,Isolated SARS patient after discharge,8,0,0,No answer,18,0,0,Total,1028,24,2.3,Proportion of person contacted SARS to all isolated 61%,（,630/1028),Table 1-5 Incidence of isolated medical observers of 1028,61,Table 1-6,Incidence,situation of 630 person close contacted with SARS,Contacted period,No.of isolated,No.of,patients,Attack rate%),Symptom,period,383,24,6.3,Incubation period,167,0,0.0,unclear,50,0,0.0,Not Answer,30,0,0.0,Total,630,24,3.8,Proportion of person contacted with,Symptom,period SARS to total isolated,37%(383/1028),62,监测目的,描 述 现 状,应 急 反 应,决 策 依 据,干 预 评 价,三、疾病相关监测,Disease related surveillance,Purpose of surveillance,Describe the situation,Emergency response,Basis for decision making,Evaluation for intervention,63,疾病监测（发病、死亡）,生物学监测（全血、血浆、血清、唾液及液,）,行为监测（吸烟、饮酒、锻炼、性行为、毒,）,环境监测（自然环境、社会环境）,虫媒监测（鼠、蚊,）,Disease surveillance,(incidence,death),Biology surveillance,(blood,serum,plasma,saliva),Behavior surveillance,(smoking,alcohol drinking,drug.),Environmental surveillance,natural,，,social,，,Environment,Vector surveillance,（,mouse mosquito,）,监测类型,Type of surveillance,64,第一阶段（,20,世纪,50,年代）,全国法定,传染病疫情报告系统,(1950,年,),First stage,(50s of 20 century-),The,notifiable,infection disease system,in China(1950),我国的监测系统,Surveillance system in China,65,第二阶段,（,20,世纪,70,年代后期）,传染病监测（单病监测系统）,出生、死亡监测,综合疾病监测系统（,1980,年）,Second stage,(70s of 20 century-),infectious disease surveillance(single disease,surveillance system),birth,death surveillance,comprehensive surveillance system(1980-),66,第三阶段,（,20,世纪,80,年代后期）,传染病监测、出生、死亡监测,慢性非传染性疾病监测 行为监测,The third stage,（,80s 20 century-,）,infectious disease surveillance,；,birth,death surveillance,Chronic non-communicated disease,、,behavior surveillance,第四阶段,（,21,世纪初）,整合：国家公共卫生监测体系,The fourth stage,（,beginning of 20 century-,）,integrate,：,National public health surveillance system,67,Risk factor and disease,smoking and lung cancer,图,6,1,图,6,2,图,6,3,图,64,68,五、疾病自然史研究,图,1-7,69,The Natural History of Disease,A,-Stage of susceptibility,（,易感期,）,B,-Stage of pre-symptomatic disease,（症状前期）,C,-Stage of clinical disease,（临床病人）,D,-Stage of disability or recovery or death,（残疾、恢复或死亡）,A,B,C,D,70,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,Week,Response,Clinical illness,ALT,IgM,IgG,HAV in stool,Infection,Viremia,EVENTS IN HEPATITIS A VIRUS INFECTION,71,RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL,RCT,随机对照试验,EVIDENCE BASED MEDICINE,循证医学,流行病学,循证医学,“,生产,”,证据的科学方法决策过程中利用证据所必需的知识技能,六、疾病防治效果的评价,Evaluate the effect of prevent and treatment,72,Features,特点,Population medicine,Compare,Probability theory and statistics,Social medicine,Prevention,Development,群体的特征,对比的特征,概率论和数理统计学的,特征,社会心理的特征,预防为主的特征,发展的特征,73,Prospect,展望,Macroscopic+Mirocosmic,Communicable +non-communicable,Population health,Emergency events and EID,Ethic,Evidence-based medicine,宏观与微观并举,传染病和非传染病并重,重视人群健康和生活质量研究,发展应急和现场流行病学,重视流行病学研究中的伦理学,问题,强化流行病学在循证实践中的,作用,74,Question,1.What is Epidemiology?,2.What is the meaning of this definition?,3.What is the study method of epidemiology?,4.what is the use of epidemiology?,75,Thak,you!,Thank you!,76,