2026国防科技前沿：欧洲领先之道研究报告.pdf

The Defense Technology FrontierHow Europe Could LeadFebruary 2026 By Nikolaus Lang,Philippe Lavigne,Greg Mallory,Rami Rafih,Jona Lampert,and David Zuluaga MartnezBCG Henderson Institute The BCG Henderson Institute is Boston Consulting Groups strategy think tank,dedicated to exploring and developing valuable new insights from business,technology,and science by embracing the powerful technology of ideas.The Institute engages leaders in provocative discussion and experimentation to expand the boundaries of business theory and practice and to translate innovative ideas from within and beyond business.For more ideas and inspiration from the Institute,please visit our website and follow us on LinkedIn and X(formerly Twitter).Boston Consulting Group Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow,build sustainable competitive advantage,and drive positive societal impact.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives that question the status quo and spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting,technology and design,and corporate and digital ventures.We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization,fueled by the goal of helping our clients thrive and enabling them to make the world a better place.THE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY FRONTIER:HOW EUROPE COULD LEAD 3Governments around the world are reassessing their strategic defense capabilities.Many of these countries,particularly in Europe,are playing catch-up after decades of underinvestment in defense and are focusing on strengthening their ability to meet immediate national security needs:closing capability gaps,rebuilding stockpiles,and fortifying existing systems against cyber threats.Such efforts are essential but incomplete.New and emerging defense technologiesacross AI,autonomous systems,space,biotechnology,quantum technologies,and moreare changing the very nature of conflict and altering the future definition of military advantage.It is crucial that policymakers consider these strategic interests in tandem.Europespecifically,the UK and all countries that are members of both NATO and the EUfaces unique challenges in navigating this new geostrategic terrain.The region is an established hub of world-class talent with strong research capacity.But our analysis of roughly 250 million research publications,90 million patent family records,and multiple investment trends,shows that Europe struggles to convert its research potential into deployable defense products.The disconnect between potential and application is due in large part to the lack of consistent demand from domestic military end users.Such demand,however,is poised to grow.Many European countries aim to more than double their defense spending to 5%of GDP annually by 2035(with 3.5%taking the form of core defense spending).But what should that investment look like,now and in the years to come?To help answer that question,we have focused our study on the defense tech frontieridentifying the highest-impact new technologies on the basis of insights from a panel of more than 50 senior defense experts in Europe,the US,and other allied countries.We also assessed Europes relative position across these key technologiesto propose a path for national leaders and policymakers to follow in prioritizing investments.Introduction4 BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP|BCG HENDERSON INSTITUTEWhat Is the Defense Tech Frontier?Often,policy leaders must make strategic security decisions within the constraints of limited resources.To prioritize and deploy national resources effectively and maximize their defense capabilities,these leaders should aim to identify three key things:The technologies most likely to shape the future of warfare How rapidly those technologies are evolving The point at which those technologies will have an impact on the battlefield at scaleTo identify the highest-impact defense technologies of the future,we convened a panel of senior BCG defense experts.We used NATOs nine emerging and disruptive technology(EDT)areas as a starting point for the analysis,ranging from AI to biotech and hypersonic systems.(See the appendix,“NATOs Nine EDTs.”)From an initial group of 60 applications,we identified 19 that could have the greatest potential strategic impact across three time horizons.(See Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2.)For each of these technologies,the current level of development is an important factor,but the rate at which they are progressing is equally important.According to the defense experts we surveyed,AI-powered applicationssuch as sensors and effectors that autonomously detect,classify,and respond to threats in real time,and intelligence analysis and decision support systems that process vast amounts of data to support faster decision makingare evolving especially quickly at the moment.By contrast,human augmentation systems,which enhance soldier resilience and protection,are progressing more slowly than most other applications in the group of 19.Differences in the rate of progress across technology applications are important because they determine how much runway countries are likely to have for developing homegrown solutions.Since not all countries have the same resources,objectives,and security needs,its important to base region-specific assessments of these global trends on how each region is positioned to compete,cooperate,or shape the emerging defense-technology landscape.EXHIBIT 1High-Impact Frontier Defense Technology ApplicationsNATO EDT areasShortlisted defense tech applications for each EDTArtificial intelligenceAI-empoweredsensors and effectorsAI intelligence analysisand decision support systemsHuman-machineteaming systemsQuantum technologiesQuantum key distributionQuantum sensingQuantum AI and large-scalequantum computingNext-generationcommunication networks6G and advanced networkingUnified multidomain networksAd hoc mesh communicationsand self-healing,secure networksAutonomous systemsAutonomous unmanned aerial,ground,and maritime systemsHighly autonomous swarmsand integrated combat networksBiotechnology and humanenhancement technologiesAdvanced biological agentsAdvanced soldier capability andsurvivability augmentation systemsSpaceAdvanced anti-satellite systemsNext-generation space-basedcommunication systemsEnergy and propulsionAdvanced directed energy weaponsCompact field-deployable energy sourcesHypersonic systemsAdvanced global strike systems and hypersonic missile defenseNovel materialsand manufacturingMeta materialsSources:NATO;BCG analysis.Note:EDT=emerging and disruptive technologies.EXHIBIT 1High-Impact Frontier Defense Technology ApplicationsTHE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY FRONTIER:HOW EUROPE COULD LEAD 5Europe trails other major military powers in developing emerging defense technologies,but it has not yet been left behind.6 BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP|BCG HENDERSON INSTITUTEEXHIBIT 2Defense Technology Applications Are Likely to Mature at Different Points in TimeRelative impactCurrent and imminent(05 years)Middle term(515 years)Long term(15+years)40 applications deprioritizedHighLowAI intelligence analysis and decision support systemsAI-empowered sensors and effectorsAutonomous unmanned aerial,ground,and maritime systemsHighly autonomous swarms and integrated combat networksAdvanced biological agentsHuman-machine teaming systemsQuantum sensingQuantum AI and large-scale quantum computingUnified multidomain networksAdvanced anti-satellite systems Next-generation space-based communication systemsAd hoc mesh communications and self-healing,secure networksQuantum key distribution6G and advanced networkingAdvanced global strike systems and hypersonic missile defenseAdvanced directed energy weaponsMeta materialsCompact field-deployable energy sourcesAdvanced soldier capability and survivability augmentation systemsSource:BCG analysis.Note:“Impact”refers to the degree to which the technology can shape outcomes on the battlefield.“Time horizon”refers to the time frame in which this technology will most likely reach maturity(that is,be sufficiently advanced to have real at-scale battlefield impact).A technology that is just being worked on or is in the prototype or R&D stage is not counted toward maturity,nor do the time horizons consider a countrys capacity to integrate the technology into its armed forces.EXHIBIT 2Defense Technology Applications Are Likely to Mature at Different Points in TimeEuropes Significant Research-to-Development GapEurope currently trails other major military powers in developing these emerging defense technologies,but the region has not yet been left behind.The defense experts we consulted consistently rank Europe third globally across the 18 of the 19 high-impact applicationsthe one exception being soldier capability and survivability augmentation systems,where it ranks second.Research strength in Europe is particularly strong,according to our analysis of some 250 million research publications in the OpenAlex database.Over the past decade,Europe has accounted for more of the top 10%of most highly cited papers across six of the nine NATO EDT areas than any other region.(See Exhibit 3.)Europe has a sizable lead in high-quality research in AI,quantum technologies,space,energy and propulsion,and biotechnology and human enhancement technologies.But for scientific research to lead to breakthroughs,it must be developed,typically into patented productsand this is where our analysis reveals a problematic recurring pattern for Europe.The regions strong fundamental research capabilities tend to yield only limited commercial development.Even in instances where demand exists for sophisticated technologies that Europe is well placed to develop,the region has failed to keep pace.For example,Europe ranks fifth globally in global strike systems and hypersonic missile defense applications,even though some of its top defense companies have collaborated for decades on these weapons.THE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY FRONTIER:HOW EUROPE COULD LEAD 7Our comparative analysis of patent data reveals that Europes share of high-quality patents is consistently lower than its share of leading scientific publications.We found this underperformance across all nine NATO EDTs,including the ones in which European research is strongest.In the US,by contrast,the opposite is true:the country consistently has a higher share of high-quality patents than of top scientific publications.(See Exhibit 4.)Challenges to CommercializationThe underlying cause of this asymmetry is no secret.Multiple reports by the European Commission,the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development,and the European Investment Bank,all point to a common culprit:weak pathways to commercialization.Insufficient incentives and support for researchers to pursue patents,limited industry demand for frontier technologies,and fragmented markets and intellectual property regimes within Europe all hinder efforts to scale nascent innovations into market-ready technologies.Europes lagging development performance is also evident in its defense startup ecosystem.There are twice as many defense startups in the US as in Europe,and these have benefited from 8.5 times the venture capital investment over the past decadealthough that ratio has fallen to 7.5 times since Russias invasion of Ukraine.(See Exhibit 5.)This suggests that,on average,European companies working to develop novel defense tech applications have considerably smaller valuations than their US counterparts.Similarly,in terms of transatlantic M&A activity,three times as much capital has flowed from the US to Europe over the past decade than has flowed from Europe to the USa sign that Europes defense ecosystem is deficient in scale,capitalization,and commercial maturity.EXHIBIT 3Europe Leads in Foundational Research in Six of NATOs Nine Emerging and Disruptive Defense Technology AreasAverage share of the top 10%of most cited academic publications per domain,20152025(%)24213421Artificial intelligence19192437Quantum technologies30261330Next-generationcommunication networks18322030Autonomous systems20172340Biotechnology and humanenhancement technologies14242339Space16252039Energy and propulsion18402121Hypersonic systems24431321Novel materialsand manufacturingEuropeUSChinaOtherNATO EDTs in which Europe is leadingSources:OpenAlex;BCG analysis.Note:This exhibit shows only countries or regions that are among the top 20 global defense spenders and reach at least a share of 10%of the top 10%of publications from 2015 to 2025.Countries are assigned on the basis of the nationality of the institution that the authors are affiliated with.If there are multiple or different affiliations,the publication is counted for each institutions home country.“Europe”encompasses the UK and all countries that are in both the EU and NATO.EDTemerging and disruptive technologies.Because of rounding,not all bar segment totals add up to 100%.EXHIBIT 3Europe Leads in Foundational Research in Six of NATOs Nine Emerging and Disruptive Defense Technology Areas8 BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP|BCG HENDERSON INSTITUTEEXHIBIT 4Europe Trails the US in Translating Fundamental Research into PatentsShare of high-quality patents(%)11020304050600102030405060112233445566778899Share of high-quality scientific publications(%)2Greater focuson exploitationGreater focuson explorationUSEuropeAutonomous systems3Next-generationcommunication networks9Hypersonic systems6Artificial intelligence1Biotechnology and humanenhancement technologies4Novel materialsand manufacturing7Quantum technologies2Space5Energy and propulsion8Sources:OpenAlex;LexisNexis PatentSight+;BCG analysis.Note:“Europe”encompasses the UK and all countries that are in both the EU and NATO.The countries and regions included in the assessment were Australia,Brazil,Canada,Europe,India,Israel,Japan,Russia,South Korea,Turkey,Ukraine,and the US.1Assessments of technological quality are based on Technology Relevance,a trademarked tool created by LexisNexis PatentSight+that measures a patents quality on the basis of its rate of forward citations in other patent applications.Patents are grouped by score as follows:00.5=low;0.52=moderate;25=high;over 5=exceptional.2Percentages reflect the countrys or regions share of the top 10%most cited publications.EXHIBIT 4Europe Trails the US in Translating Fundamental Researchinto PatentsTHE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY FRONTIER:HOW EUROPE COULD LEAD 9EXHIBIT 5The Defense Tech Startup Ecosystem in Europe Is Smaller and Less Well Funded Than the One in the US 597Europe1,176US8Europe69USVenture capital investment,20152025($billions)Active defense tech star