第5章 决策1.ppt

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,6,*,Decision-Making:The Essence of the Managers Job,Chapter,6,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,决策的定义,从两个以上的备选方案中选择一个的过程就是决策,杨洪兰，,1996,组织或个人为了实现某种目标而对未来一定时期内有关活动的方向、内容及方式的选择或调整过程,周三多，,1999,人们为了达到一定目标，在掌握充分的信息和对有关情况进行深刻分析的基础上，用科学的方法拟订并评估各种方案，从中选出合理方案的过程,张石森、欧阳云，,2003,决策与决策理论,决策的定义,决策的原则,决策的依据,决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,决策方法,思考题,2,2,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,决策的定义（续）,定义：,决策是管理者识别并解决问题的过程，或者管理者利用机会的过程,决策的主体是管理者，因为决策是管理的一项职能,决策的本质是一个过程,决策的目的是解决问题或利用机会,决策与决策理论,决策的定义,决策的原则,决策的依据,决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,决策方法,思考题,3,3,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 61The Decision-Making Process,A,utocar,P,ingpang,Friends,watermelon,4,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Step 1:Identifying the Problem,Problem,A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs.,Characteristics of Problems,A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it.,There is pressure to solve the problem.,The manager must have the authority,information,or resources needed to solve the problem.,5,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Step 2:Identifying Decision Criteria,Decision criteria are factors that are important(relevant)to resolving the problem.,Costs that will be incurred(investments required),Risks likely to be encountered(chance of failure),Outcomes that are desired(growth of the firm),Step 3:Allocating Weights to the Criteria,Decision criteria are not of equal importance:,Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process.,6,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 62Criteria and Weights for Computer Replacement Decision,Criterion Weight,Memory and Storage 10,Battery life 8,Carrying Weight 6,Warranty 4,Display Quality 3,7,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Step 4:Developing Alternatives,Identifying viable alternatives,Alternatives are listed(without evaluation)that can resolve the problem.,Step 5:Analyzing Alternatives,Appraising each alternatives strengths and weaknesses,An alternatives appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.,8,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 63Assessed Values of Laptop Computers Using Decision Criteria,9,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Step 6:Selecting an Alternative,Choosing the best alternative,The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.,Step 7:Implementing the Alternative,Putting the chosen alternative into action.,Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.,10,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 64Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives Against Weighted Criteria,11,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Step 8:Evaluating the Decisions Effectiveness,The soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes.,How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?,If the problem was not resolved,what went wrong?,12,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 65Decisions in the Management Functions,13,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Making Decisions,Rationality,Managers make consistent,value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.,Assumptions are that decision makers:,Are perfectly rational,fully objective,and logical.,Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.,Have a clear and specific goal,Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.,14,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 66Assumptions of Rationality,15,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Making Decisions(contd),Bounded Rationality,Managers make decisions rationally,but are limited(bounded)by their ability to process information.,Assumptions are that decision makers:,Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternatives,Will,satisfice,choose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problem,rather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.,Influence on decision making,Escalation of commitment:an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong.,16,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,环境因素,组织自身的因素,决策问题的性质,决策主体的因素,环境的稳定性,市场结构,买卖双方在市场的地位,组织文化,组织信息化程度,组织对环境的应变模式,问题的紧迫性,问题的重要性,个人对待风险的态度,个人能力,个人价值观,决策群体的关系融洽程度,决策的影响因素,17,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,决策的影响因素,决策与决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,环境因素,组织自身的因素,决策问题的性质,决策主体的因素,决策方法,思考题,18,环境因素,（,1,）环境的稳定性,环境比较稳定情况下,决策一般由中层管理者进行,环境剧烈变化情况下,决策一般由高层管理者进行,（,2,）市场结构,垄断程度高,以生产为导向,竞争程度高,以市场为导向,（,3,）买卖双方在市场的地位,买方市场,以生产条件与能力为出发点,买方市场,以市场需求为出发点,18,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,决策的影响因素（,续）,组织自身的因素,（,1,）组织文化,保守型与进取型组织文化,有无伦理精神,（,2,）组织的信息化程度,高信息化有利于提高决策的效率和质量,（,3,）组织对环境的应变模式,应变模式指导着组织今后在面对环境变化时如何思考问题、如何选择行动方案等,决策与决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,环境因素,组织自身的因素,决策问题的性质,决策主体的因素,决策方法,思考题,19,19,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,决策的影响因素（续）,决策问题的性质,（,1,）问题的紧迫性,时间敏感型决策,知识敏感型决策,（,2,）问题的重要性,问题重要性对决策的影响是多方面的：,引起高层领导的重视，得到更多力量的支持,越重要的问题越有可能由群体决策，对问题的认识更全面，决策的质量可能更高,越重要的问题越需要决策者慎重决策，越需要决策者避开下一节所介绍的各类决策陷阱,决策与决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,环境因素,组织自身的因素,决策问题的性质,决策主体的因素,决策方法,思考题,20,20,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,决策的影响因素,决策主体的因素,（,1,）个人对待风险的态度,风险厌恶型、风险中立型和风险爱好型,（,2,）个人能力,对问题的认识能力、获取信息的能力、沟通能力、组织能力,（,3,）个人价值观,个人价值观通过影响决策中的价值成分来影响决策,（,4,）决策群体的关系融洽程度,影响较好方案被通过的可能性,影响决策的成本,决策与决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,环境因素,组织自身的因素,决策问题的性质,决策主体的因素,决策方法,思考题,21,21,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,The Role of Intuition,Intuitive decision making,Making decisions on the basis of experience,feelings,and accumulated judgment.,22,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 67What is Intuition?,Source:,Based on L.A.Burke and M.K.Miller,“Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making,”,Academy of Management Executive,October 1999,pp.9199.,23,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Types of Problems and Decisions,Structured Problems,Involve goals that clear.,Are familiar(have occurred before).,Are easily and completely defined,infor,mation about the problem is available and complete.,Programmed Decision,A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.,24,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Types of Programmed Decisions,Policy,A general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.,Procedure,A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond(applying a policy)to a structured problem.,Rule,An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.,25,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Policy,Procedure,and Rule Examples,Policy,Accept all customer-returned merchandise.,Procedure,Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.,Rules,Managers must approve all refunds over$50.00.,No credit purchases are refunded for cash.,26,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Problems and Decisions(contd),Unstructured Problems,Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.,Problems that will require custom-made solutions.,Nonprogrammed,Decisions,Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring.,Decisions that generate unique responses.,27,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 68Programmed versus,Nonprogrammed,Decisions,28,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Decision-Making Conditions,Certainty,A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known.,Risk,A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood(probability)of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.,29,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 69Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift,Expected,Expected,Probability=Value of EachEventRevenuesAlternative,Heavy snowfall$850,0000.3=$255,000,Normal snowfall 725,0000.5=362,500,Light snowfall 350,0000.2=,70,000,$687,500,30,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Decision-Making Conditions,Uncertainty,Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition,hunches,and“gut feelings”.,Maximax,:,the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoff,Maximin,:,the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoff,Minimax,:,the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.,31,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 610Payoff Matrix,32,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 611Regret Matrix,33,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Decision-Making Styles,Dimensions of Decision-Making Styles,Ways of thinking,Rational,orderly,and consistent,Intuitive,creative,and unique,Tolerance for ambiguity,Low tolerance:require consistency and order,High tolerance:multiple thoughts simultaneously,34,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Decision-Making Styles(contd),Types of Decision Makers,Directive,Use minimal information and consider few alternatives.,Analytic,Make careful decisions in unique situations.,Conceptual,Maintain a broad outlook and consider many alternatives in making decisions.,Behavioral,Avoid conflict by working well with others and being receptive to suggestions.,35,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 612Decision-Making Matrix,36,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 613Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases,37,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Decision-Making Biases and Errors,Heuristics,Using“rules of thumb”to simplify decision making.,Overconfidence Bias,Holding unrealistically positive views of ones self and ones performance.,Immediate Gratification Bias,Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.,38,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd),Anchoring Effect,Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.,Selective Perception Bias,Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision makers biased perceptions.,Confirmation Bias,Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.,39,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd),Framing Bias,Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.,Availability Bias,Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.,Representation Bias,Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.,Randomness Bias,Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.,40,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd),Sunk Costs Errors,Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.,Self-Serving Bias,Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.,Hindsight Bias,Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known(after-the-fact).,41,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Exhibit 614Overview of Managerial Decision Making,42,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Decision Making for Todays World,Guidelines for making effective decisions:,Understand cultural differences.,Know when its time to call it quits.,Use an effective decision-making process.,Habits of highly reliable organizations(,HROs,),Are not tricked by their success.,Defer to the experts on the front line.,Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution.,Embrace complexity.,Anticipate,but also anticipate their limits.,43,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,Characteristics of an Effective Decision-Making Process,It focuses on what is important.,It is logical and consistent.,It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends analytical with intuitive thinking.,It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma.,It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion.,It is straightforward,reliable,easy to use,and flexible.,44,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,决策方法,根据决策所采用的分析方法，可以把决策方法分为：,定性决策方法,定量决策方法及定性,定量相结合的方法,根据决策所采用的分析工具，可以分为：,采用一般计算工具的方法,采用计算机和网络等相关工具的方法,决策与决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,决策方法,定性决策方法,定量决策方法,计算机模拟决策方法,决策模拟演练,思考题,45,45,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,集体决策方法,头脑风暴法,针对解决的问题，相关专家或人员聚在一起，在宽松的氛围中，敞开思路，畅所欲言，寻求多种决策思路,头脑风暴法的四项原则：,各自发表自己的意见，对别人的建议不作评论,建议不必深思熟虑，越多越好,鼓励独立思考、奇思妙想,可以补充完善已有的建议,其特点是倡导创新思维，时间一般在,1,2,小时，参加者,5,6,人为宜,决策与决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,决策方法,定性决策方法,定量决策方法,计算机模拟决策方法,决策模拟演练,思考题,46,46,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,名义小组技术：,选择一些对要解决的问题有研究或有经验的人作为小组成员，并向他们提供与决策问题相关的信息,小组成员各自先不通气，独立地思考，提出决策建议,召集会议，让小组成员一一陈述自己的方案,小组成员对全部备选方案投票，产生大家最赞同的方案，并形成对其它方案的意见，提交管理者作为决策参考,决策与决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,决策方法,定性决策方法,定量决策方法,计算机模拟决策方法,决策模拟演练,思考题,47,集体决策方法（续）,47,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,德尔菲技术：,用于听取专家对某一问题的意见,运用这一方法的步骤是：,根据问题的特点，选择和邀请做过相关研究或有相关经验的专家,将与问题有关的信息分别提供给专家，请他们各自独立发表自己的意见，并写成书面材料,管理者收集并综合专家们的意见后，将综合意见反馈给各位专家，请他们再次发表意见,如此反复多次，最后形成代表专家组意见的方案,决策与决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,决策方法,定性决策方法,定量决策方法,计算机模拟决策方法,决策模拟演练,思考题,48,集体决策方法（续）,48,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,经营单位组合分析方法：,由波士顿咨询公司提出,以相对竞争地位和业务增长率为维度,相对竞争地位体现在市场占有率上，决定了企业的销售量、销售额和赢利能力,业务增长率反映业务增长的速度，影响投资的回收期限,决策与决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,决策方法,定性决策方法,定量决策方法,计算机模拟决策方法,决策模拟演练,思考题,49,有关活动方向的决策方法,49,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,决策与决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,决策方法,定性决策方法,定量决策方法,计算机模拟决策方法,决策模拟演练,思考题,50,幼童,明星,金牛,瘦狗,相对竞争地位,业务增长率,高,低,低,高,有关活动方向的决策方法,50,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,瘦狗型：,经营单位市场份额和业务增长率都较低，只能带来很少的现金和利润，甚至可能亏损,采取收缩甚至放弃的战略,幼童型：,经营单位业务增长率较高，目前市场占有率较低，需要大量现金,有前途：投入必要的资金，使其向,“,明星,”,型转变,无前途：忍痛割爱，及时放弃该领域,金牛型：,市场占有率较高，而业务增长率较低，为企业带来较多的利润，同时需要较少的资金投资,产生的大量现金可以满足企业经营的需要,明星型：,市场占有率和业务增长率都较高,不失时机地投入必要的资金，扩大生产规模,决策与决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,决策方法,定性决策方法,定量决策方法,计算机模拟决策方法,决策模拟演练,思考题,51,有关活动方向的决策方法（续）,51,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,政策指导矩阵：,从市场前景和相对竞争能力两个维度分析企业经营单位的现状和特征,用一个,3,3,的类似矩阵的形式表示,决策与决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,决策方法,定性决策方法,定量决策方法,计算机模拟决策方法,决策模拟演练,思考题,52,有关活动方向的决策方法（续）,52,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,政策指导矩阵：,决策与决策理论,决策过程决策的影响因素,决策方法,定性决策方法,定量决策方法,计算机模拟决策方法,决策模拟演练,思考题,53,有关活动方向的决策方法（续）,3,9,6,2,8,5,1,7,4,强,中,弱,弱,中,强,市场前景吸引力,经营单位的竞争能力,53,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,区域,9,：,业务代表大好的机会，应该确保足够的资源，优先发展,区域,7,：,经营单位市场前景虽好，但竞争能力弱，要根据企业的资源状况区别对待,区域,5,：,经营单位市场前景和竞争能力均居中等，要分配给这些单位足够的资源，推动其发展,区域,3,：,经营单位竞争能力较强，但市场前景不容乐观，这些业务不应继续发展，但不要马上放弃，可以利用其较强的竞争能力为其它业务提供资金,区域,1,：,经营单位竞争能力和市场前景都很弱，应尽快放弃此类业务，以免陷入泥潭,决策与决策理论,决策过程,决策的影响因素,决策方法,定性决策方法,定量决策方法,计算机模拟决策方法,决策模拟演练,思考题,54,有关活动方向的决策方法（续）,54,2007 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.,确定型决策方法：,确定型决策：指决策面对的问题的相关因素是确定的，从而建立的决策模型中的各种参数是确定的,解确定型决策的方法有线性规划、非线性规划、动态规划等等,例：,某