简单国民收入决定-多恩布什.ppt

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,*,第,9,章收入与支出（产品市场均衡）,9.1,总需求与均衡产出,9.2,消费函数与总需求,9.3,国民收入决定（定量税，比例税,）,9.4,乘数（定量税，比例税）,9.5,政府预算,9.6,充分就业预算盈余,1,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,短期波动模型,凯恩斯主义,总需求分析,NI-AE,模型,IS,LM,模型,IS,LM,BP,模型（开放经济）,总需求总供给分析,AD,AS,模型,2,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,凯恩斯主义,AE model,：产品市场均衡,总需求分析,假设,1,：经济制度能以不变的价格提供相应的供给量（凯恩斯定律）（资源大量闲置，,AD,闲置资源被利用产量、价格不变,并且没有瓶颈制约）,假设,2,：折旧、未分配利润为零,GDP=NDP=NI=PI=DPI,静态分析：国民收入的决定,比较静态分析：乘数理论,3,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,三）,Keynesian Law:,社会总需求变动时，只会引起产量变动，使经济恢复均衡，达到,AD=AS,状态，而不会引起价格变动。,4,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,宏观均衡的概念,均衡,P,Q,D,S,P,Y,AD,AS,宏观均衡,GDP,需求量,GDP,供给量,总需求总供给,aggregate aggregate,demand supply,5,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,AS,P,Y,0,Y,AD,Price Level,P,0,What happens when AD shifts rightwards?,Price unchanged,短期,AD,-,AS,6,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,9.1,总需求和均衡产出,短期,价格固定,由需求决定每个企业出售的数量,总需求决定,GDP（,总产出）,AD,=,C+I+G+NX,7,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,均衡产出（收入）,均衡产出：与总需求相等的产出。社会收入正好等于居民和厂商想要有的支出。,8,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,2.,均衡产出（收入）,y,E,E=y,45,0,支出决定收入,AE,AE,总支出（需求）,Aggregate,expenditure,IU0,9,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,均衡的产出决定,GDP,萨谬尔森交叉图,AD,GDP,2,4,6,8,10,计划的总支出,2,4,6,8,10,10,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,趋向均衡支出的力量,i,AE,GDP,2,4,6,8,10,计划的总支出,2,4,6,8,非,计划的存货变动,GDP,2,4,6,8,10,-2,0,2,11,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,产出,需求，厂商非意愿存货增加，减少生产,产出,AE,，,IU0,，减少生产,y,AE,，,IU,0,，增加生产,，,12,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,保罗,萨缪尔森（,Paul,A.Samuelson,），,1915,年出生,.,2009,年,12,月,13,日逝世,.,享年,94,岁,.,1935,年毕业于芝加哥大学，随后获得哈佛大学的硕士学位和博士学位,萨缪尔森的经典著作,经济学,以四十多种语言在全球销售超过四百万册,是全世界最畅销的教科书，影响了整整一代人。把微观和宏观理论综合在一起，构成新古典综合派,现代流行的西方经济学主流体系。,他于,1947,年成为约翰,贝茨,克拉克奖的首位获得者，,1970,年他成为第一个获得诺贝尔奖的美国人。,13,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,美国诺贝尔经济学奖第一人,萨缪尔森,和他的导师,汉森,是,凯恩斯主义,在美国的主要代表人物。,他的研究涉及经济理论的诸多领域，例如一般均衡论、福利经济学、国际贸易理论等。书中的,税收,理论、政策主要包括税收性质、税收原则、税收影响。,从,1940,年起，萨谬尔森一直执教于麻省理工学院,14,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,克林顿与保罗,萨缪尔森,15,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,没有储蓄（,S,，,Savings,）的经济,企,业,要素市场,产品市场,家 庭,16,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,一切问题从储蓄开始,企 业,要素市场,产品市场,家 庭,储蓄,17,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,企,业,要素市场,产品市场,家,庭,储蓄,问题如何解决？,18,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,储蓄投资转化的关键：金融市场,企 业,要素市场,产品市场,金融市场,家 庭,储蓄,投资,19,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,投资储蓄,均衡时：,E=y,E=c+i,y=c+s,意义：,如果经济要达到均衡，计划投资计划储蓄，,是一个前提条件。是宏观经济战略要考虑的前提条件。,在上章国民收入核算中，从事后的实际情况看，,I=S,，是必然的结果。是会计结果。,c+i=c+s,i=s,20,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,9.2,消费函数与总需求总需求,C,计划,IGNX,固定变量：计划投资,I、,政府购买,G、,净出口,消费支出,C,与,GDP,1）,取决于,GDP：GDP,增加，消费支出增加,2）影响,GDP：,消费支出增加，,GDP,增加,21,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,消费函数,影响消费行为,的决定因素：,收入水平,价格水平,利率水平,净资产的购买力,预期的未来收入,消费函数：,其他条件不变时，消费支出与可支配收入之间的关系。,22,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,凯恩斯消费函数（消费倾向）（绝对收入假说）,C=C*+,cY,(0 c 0,自主消费,.,cY,为引致消费,总消费自主性消费收入引致的消费,C*,自主性消费,C*,0,cY,引致消费,0,c1,一条重要的心理规律：边际消费倾向递减规律,23,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,线性消费曲线,y,0,6,8,6,8,10,12,14,10,12,14,C,45,。,45,o,线：收入等于消费,C=C*+,cY,24,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,消费与收入的关系,平均消费倾向,APC,（,Average Propensity to Consume,）,边际消费倾向,MPC,（,Marginal Propensity to Consume,）,25,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,（,1,）,（,2,）,（,3,）（,4,）,收 入 消费,边际消费倾向,平均消费倾向,y c MPC,APC,某家庭消费表,一条重要的心理规律：边际消费倾向递减,26,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,储蓄函数,储蓄：,收入中未被消费的部分,储蓄函数：,储蓄和收入之间的关系,YD=C+S =S=YD-C=,Y-C=Y-(C*+,cY,),=S=-C*+(1-,c)Y,27,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,线性储蓄曲线,y,0,-1,s,6,8,10,12,14,1,2,3,4,28,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,储蓄与收入的关系,平均储蓄倾向,APS,（,Average Propensity to Save,）,边际储蓄倾向,MPS,（,Marginal Propensity to Save,）,29,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,某家庭储蓄表,（,1,）,（,2,）,（,3,）（,4,）,收 入 储蓄,边际储蓄倾向,平均储蓄倾向,y s MPS,APS,30,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,消费函数和储蓄函数的关系,c（y）+s（y）y,APC,和,APS,的关系,MPC,和,MPS,的关系,31,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,9.3,国民收入决定（定量税，比例税）,32,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,四部门模型,模型中有家庭户、厂商、政府和对外贸易部门,总需求由消费、投资和政府购买、对外贸易组成,对消费设计一个行为方程,对投资、政府支出和对外贸易设定为模型以外因素决定的外生变量,33,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,国民收入的决定（定量税）,假定政府税收不随,NI,的变化而变动，即是定量税,C=C*+,cYD,=C*+,c(Y,-TA+TR),Y=C+I+G+NX,=C*+,c(Y,-TA+TR)+I+G+NX,34,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,35,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,36,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,Consumption,AD and autonomous spending,37,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,均衡产出与充分就业产出,市场机制会使整个宏观经济趋向均衡,关键是均衡产出是不是充分就业的产出,38,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,均衡产出与充分就业产出,(2),Y,0,C+I+G,C+I+G,Y,1,E,Y,1,均衡产出，但是,不一定是充分就业,的产出。在凯恩斯,那里，绝大多数时,间，它不是充分就,业的产出。如果,Y,0,为充分就业的产出,，则政府就有用武,之地。,G,39,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,T=T0,总额税时的均衡收入,已知,C=160+0.75Y,d,T,0,=80,I,0,=100,G,0,=200,Y,d,=Y-T,0,求均衡收入？,Y=C+I+G,=160+0.75Y,d,+I+G,=160+0.75(Y-80)+100+200,=460+0.75(Y-80),Y,=400+0.75Y,400+0.75Y=Y,0.25Y=400,Y=1600,为均衡收入水平,40,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lectureby zhuoyue,2.,储蓄函数决定均衡收入,储蓄函数：,s=y,c=-a+(1-b)y I=i,例：,s,-1000+(1-0.8)y,自发计划投资,i,600,储蓄函数决定均衡收入,s=,-,1000+(1-0.8)y,600,0,-1000,s,i,y,5000,8000,知道储蓄函数和投资，也可求得均衡国民收入,计划投资等于计划储蓄：,i=s,联立：,i=-c+(1-c,）,y,得均衡,国民收入,：,y=(c+i)/(1-c),均衡收入为,y,(1000,600)/(1,0.8),8000,s,i=600,，,y,8000,s,0,，,y,5000,41,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,一个人节约得越多,个人财富就越多，而社会的财富却越少。,(,节约悖论,),答：（,1,）对个人而言，消费的越少，节约得越多，个人财富越多。,（,2,）但对社会而言，在经济萧条时期，国民收入短期内由总需求决定，一个人消费的越少，即,MPC,越小，国民收入增加的越少，社会财富就越少。,（,3,）从长期来看，经济发展需要大量投资资金，个人节约的越多，储蓄资金越多，社会财富就越多。,42,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,9.4,乘数,经济放大器乘数（,multiplier）,乘数：,一个单位的自发支出变动导致均衡支出（,GDP）,变动的倍数,43,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,乘数理论是宏观经济学中的重要内容，是由英国经济学家卡恩首创的，由凯恩斯加以变化和推广。卡恩提出的乘数是,就业,乘数，用以测度新增投资引起的就业增量与总就业量之比。凯恩斯在,就业、利息和货币通论,中提出了投资乘数理论，从定量分析角度说明投资增量与收入增量之间的量变关系。,44,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,对乘数的感性认识,均衡收入,y,c,i,i,600,时，,y,8000,y,c,c+i,c=,1000,+0.8y,c=y,45,0,对乘数的感性认识,1000,5000,1600,8000,c,+i,1,c,+i,2,8500,1700,i,700,时，,y,8500,投资增,100,，收入增,500,投资引起收入增加,5,倍c,1000,0.8y,45,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,解释,投资,100,购买要素，形成要素收入,y,1,100,；,如果边际消费倾向是,0.8,，要素收入,100,中，有,80,用于购买消费品。,80,的购买形成新收入,y,2,80,其中,800.8,64,再次购买,形成新的收入,y,3,64,如此，循环往复，,总收入,y,100,100,0.8,1000.80.8,.,100 1/,（,1,0.8,）,500,y,c,c+i,c=,1000,+0.8y,c=y,45,0,投资乘数的形成,1000,5000,1600,8000,c,+i,1,c,+i,2,8500,1700,y,i,假设不是投资，而是增加,100,元的初始消费。也是一样的效果。,46,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,支出增加 收入增加,第一轮 甲,100,乙,100,第二论 乙,80,丙,80,第三论 丙,64,丁,64,支出总的增加收入总的增加,新增,GDP,新增国民收入,47,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,乘数的作用,乘数取决于边际消费倾向,C,，成正相关。,乘数作用条件：社会上各种资源没有得到充分利用。,乘数的经济意义,经济各部门密切相连，一个部门、产业投资的增加，也会在其他部门引起连锁反应；收入的增加会持续带来需求的增加。,练习：乘数最大的是：,A.,边际消费倾向为,0.6,B.,边际消费倾向为,0.4,C.,边际消费倾向为,0.75,48,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,乘数大小的决定,边际消费倾向越大，乘数越大,（两部门经济）,49,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,乘数作用的双重性：,总需求增加，引起国民收入大幅度的增加；,总需求减少，引起国民收入大幅度的减少。,50,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,2.,三部门中的乘数,(,定量税,),先不管转移支付，则,y=,c+i+g,C*+,c(y-T)+i+g,T,为定量税,政府购买乘数：收入变动对导致其政府购买支出变动的比率。,a,g,y/g,假设其他条件都不变，,只有,g,变导致,y,变。,g,1,g,2,时，,y,1,y,2,。,51,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,三部门中的投资乘数,52,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,三部门中的税收乘数,同理可以得到税收（定量税、税收绝对量）乘数如下,53,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,政府转移支付乘数,有了政府转移支付之后，,y=,c+i+g,c+c(y-T+tr)+i+g,T,为定量税，,tr,为转移支付,54,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,The Multiplier,55,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,三部门经济的乘数（固定税）,投资乘数,政府支出乘数,税收乘数,转移支付乘数,56,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,假设消费函数,c=100+0.8y,，投资,i=50,，,政府购买支出,g,200,，政府转移支付,tr,62.5,，直接税,T,250,（,1,）求均衡收入。,（,2,）求投资乘数、政府支出乘数、税收乘数、转移支付乘数、,（,3,）假定达到充分就业所需要的国民收入为,1200,，试问：,1,）增加政府购买；,2,）减少税收；,3,）以同一数额增加政府购买和税收（平衡预算）实现这个充分就业的国民收入，各需要多少数额？,57,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,Y=C+I+G,=100+0.8*(Y-250+62.5)+50+200,解得：,Y=1000,58,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,59,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,（,3,）,y,1200,，,y,1200,1000,200,1,）,g,y/k,200/5,40,，,2,）,T,200/,（,4,）,50,，,3,）,g,T,200,60,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,四部门模型国民收入决定（比例税,模型中有家庭户、厂商、政府和国外购买者,总需求由消费、投资、政府购买和净出口组成,对消费设计一个行为方程,对投资、政府支出、出口设定为模型以外因素决定的外生变量,61,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,假定政府税收随,NI,的变化而变动，即是比例税，（税收是收入的函数）,TA=,tY,C=C*+,cYD,=C*+,c(Y,-,tY,+TR),Y=C+I+G+NX,=C*+,c(Y,-,tY,+TR)+I+G+NX,62,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,比例税,63,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,The equilibrium condition is,Y=AD,64,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,65,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,三部门经济的乘数（比例税）,投资乘数,政府支出乘数,税收乘数,转移支付乘数,66,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,(,四,),平衡预算乘数,:,政府同时增税、增支的影响。,67,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,68,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,、罗斯福新政,1929,年,10,月,24,日，一场经济危机风暴席卷美国。那次危机使美国当时当刻犹处地狱。而“罗斯福新政”把美国拉回人间。,1933,年,3,月,4,日，富兰克林,德兰诺,罗斯福就任美国第三十二届总统。罗斯福应对危机的一系列政策后来被称作“新政”（,NewDeal,），其核心是三个,R,：改革（,Reform,）、复兴（,Recovery,）和救济（,Relief,）。,69,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,其中，“救济”是一个主要方面。在进行直接救济的同时，更主要的方面是以工代赈。罗斯福上任后从一开始就倾注了极大的力量兴办大规模的公共工程，以扩大政府开支来弥补私人投资下降而出现的空白，并解决部分就业问题，而且许多基础设施建设使美国经济日后受益无穷。到,1939,年，罗斯福总统实施的新政取得了巨大的成功，帮助美国成功走出危机,70,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,2,、,1997,亚洲金融危机,1997,年，亚洲金融危机爆发，导致中国出口猛降、经济增速较大幅度下滑。彼时，我国采取了以公路基建建设为主拉动内需的策略，这样既能够拉动经济增长，抵御经济的下行压力，同时又能为整个经济增长带来一个良好的环境，引导社会民间更多的投资，最终成功闯过险滩。,71,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,当时，采取的是“积极财政政策与稳健货币政策”。实施积极财政政策期间（,19982003,年），五年共计投入万亿元拉动内需。公路建设在当时的历史经济条件下，由于投资少、工期短、见效快等特点，提振了内需。高速公路建设也进入了快速发展时期，年均通车里程超过,4000,公里，年均完成投资,1400,亿元，大大地拉动了经济的强劲增长。,72,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,近几个月来，国际经济形势急剧变化，金融危机加剧并向实体经济扩散蔓延，中国经济已经融入世界，不可避免地会受到影响。目前中国经济突出问题是增速下行压力增大。国家有关各方已经在抓紧研究进一步加大投资力度、启动内需的调控政策，为明年的经济增长注入新的动力。,73,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,在拉动内需的各项措施中，交通基建显然成了拉动内需的先锋主力。,2008,年,11,月,5,日，国务院常务会议部署了当前进一步扩大内需、促进经济增长的十项措施，明确到,2010,年底，约需投资,40000,亿元以加快建设进度，今年四季度先增加安排中央投资,1000,亿元。交通运输部随后公布了具体投资规划：今年将安排,60,亿元加大对因雨雪冰冻及四川地震而受损路段的重新建设；,100,亿将用于公路建设在建和已开工的,351,个项目上（其中，高速公路、农村公路各占,50,亿）。,2008,年交通固定资产的总投资将达到,8000,亿，其中第四季度将完成,3000,亿。,2010,年，,2011,年每年交通固定资产的投资将超过万亿元。,74,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,中国的“适度宽松”的货币政策也起到了一定作用，,2009,年，银行放贷增加了,34%,，,M2,货币供应增加了,27%,75,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,9.5,政府预算,76,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,国家财政收支差额预算执行数,赤字或盈余,国家财政收支差额,_),2010-07,累计国家财政收支差额,(,亿元,11510.741,当月累计国家财政收支差额,_,当月亿元,)972.31,亿元,77,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,9.6,充分就业的预算盈余,充分就业预算盈余：既定的政府预算在充分就业国民收入水平、即潜在国民收入水平上，所产生的政府预算盈余。,BS,-BS=,t(Y,-Y),78,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,79,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,充分就业预算盈余,Budget Surplus,1,、含义：在潜在,GDP,（,GDP*,）基础上产生的,BS,，记为,BS*,2,、公式：,3,、作用：,从,BS*,判断应实行什么政策：（,BS*,BS,）,0,（,GDP*,GDP,）,0,经济萧条，应实行扩张性政策。,从,BS*,判断已经实行了什么政策：,BS*,增加,t,增加,实行的是紧缩性政策,80,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,The Budget,81,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,自动稳定器,1,、比例所得税,调节经济波动的第一道防线，适用于轻微经济波动。,衰退时，产出下降，个人收入下降，税率不变，税收会自动减少，可支配收入会自动少减少一些，使得消费和需求下降的少些。,累进所得税，衰退使得收入自动进入较低纳税档次，税收下降幅度超过收入下降幅度。反之，如此。,82,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,Lecture,by zhuoyue,2,、失业救济金,3,农产品价格维持制度。,农产品价格保护支出的自动变化。,衰退时，失业增加，符合救济条件的人增加，社会转移支付增加，抑制可支配收入下降，抑制需求下降。,83,Copyright,2007 Business School of Xiangtan University,Macroeconomics,L