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The Beige Book Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions By Federal Reserve District For use at 2:00 PM EDT Wednesday July 12,2023 June 2023 免费获取报告扫一扫二维码 关注公号 回复:“研究报告”加入“起点财经”微信群每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告;每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报;行研报告均为公开版,权利归原作者所有,起点财经仅分发做内部学习。Federal Reserve Districts Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Chicago Richmond Atlanta St.Louis Kansas City Dallas Minneapolis San Francisco The System serves commonwealths and territories as follows:the New York Bank serves the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S.Virgin Islands;the San Francisco Bank serves American Samoa,Guam,and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.Alaska and Hawaii are part of the San Francisco District.This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis based on information collected on or before June 30,2023.This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.National Summary 1 Boston A-1First District New York B-1Second District Philadelphia C-1Third District Cleveland D-1Fourth District Richmond E-1Fifth District Atlanta F-1Sixth District Chicago G-1Seventh District St.Louis H-1Eighth District Minneapolis I-1Ninth District Kansas City J-1Tenth District Dallas K-1Eleventh District San Francisco L-1Twelfth District What is the Beige Book?The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve DistrictsIt charac-terizes regional economic conditions and prospects based on a variety of mostly qualitative information,gathered directly from each Districts sources.Reports are published eight times per year.What is the purpose of the Beige Book?The Beige Book is intended to characterize the change in economic conditions since the last report.Outreach for the Beige Book is one of many ways the Federal Reserve System engages with businesses and other organizations about economic developments in their communi-ties.Because this information is collected from a wide range of con-tacts through a variety of formal and informal methods,the Beige Book can complement other forms of regional information gathering.The Beige Book is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.How is the information collected?Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch direc-tors,plus interviews and online questionnaires completed by business-es,community organizations,economists,market experts,and other sources.Contacts are not selected at random;rather,Banks strive to curate a diverse set of sources that can provide accurate and objective information about a broad range of economic activities.The Beige Book serves as a regular summary of this information for the public.How is the information used?The information from contacts supplements the data and analysis used by Federal Reserve economists and staff to assess economic condi-tions in the Federal Reserve Districts.The qualitative nature of the Beige Book creates an opportunity to characterize dynamics and identi-fy emerging trends in the economy that may not be readily apparent in the available economic data.This information enables comparison of economic conditions in different parts of the country,which can be helpful for assessing the outlook for the national economy.The Beige Book does not have the type of information Im looking for.What other information is available?The Federal Reserve System conducts a wide array of recurring sur-veys of businesses,households,and community organizations.A list of statistical releases compiled by the Federal Reserve Board is available here,links to each of the Federal Reserve Banks are available here,and a summary of the Systems community outreach is available here.In addition,Fed Listens events have been held around the country to hear about how monetary policy affects peoples daily lives and liveli-hoods.The System also relies on a variety of advisory councilswhose members are drawn from a wide array of businesses,non-profit organizations,and community groupsto hear diverse perspectives on the economy in carrying out its responsibilities.1 National Summary Highlights by Federal Reserve District Overall Economic Activity Overall economic activity increased slightly since late May.Five Districts reported slight or modest growth,five noted no change,and two reported slight and modest declines.Reports on consumer spending were mixed;growth was generally observed in consumer services,but some retailers noted shifts away from discretionary spending.Tourism and travel activity was robust,and hospitality contacts expected a busy summer season.Auto sales remained un-changed or exhibited moderate growth across most Districts.Manufacturing activity edged up in half of the Districts and declined in the other half.Transportation activity was down or flat in most Districts that reported on it,as some contacts reported reduced demand due to high inventory levels and others noted continued challenges from labor shortages.Banking conditions were mostly subdued,as lending activity continued to soften.Despite higher mortgage rates,de-mand for residential real estate remained steady,although sales were constrained by low inventories.Construction for both residential and commercial units was slightly lower on balance.Agricultural conditions were mixed geographically but softened slightly on balance,with some contacts expecting further softening for the remainder of 2023.Energy activity decreased.Overall economic expectations for the coming months generally continued to call for slow growth.Labor Markets Employment increased modestly this period,with most Districts experiencing some job growth.Labor demand re-mained healthy,though some contacts reported that hiring was getting more targeted and selective.Employers contin-ued to have difficulty finding workers,particularly in health care,transportation,and hospitality,and for high-skilled positions in general.However,many Districts reported that labor availability had improved and that some employers were having an easier time hiring than they were having previously.Employers also reported that the unusually high turnover rates in recent years appear to be returning to pre-pandemic norms.Wages continued to rise,but more mod-erately.Contacts in multiple Districts reported that wage increases were returning to or nearing pre-pandemic levels.Prices Prices increased at a modest pace overall,and several Districts noted some slowing in the pace of increase.Consumer prices generally increased,though reports differed in the extent to which firms were able to pass along input cost in-creases.Contacts in some Districts noted reluctance to raise prices because consumers had grown more sensitive to prices,while others reported that solid demand allowed firms to maintain margins.Input cost pressures remained ele-vated for services firms but eased notably in the manufacturing sector.Freight rates continued to decrease,along with the prices for many construction inputs,though concrete prices increased.Price expectations were generally stable or lower over the next several months.Boston Business activity expanded at a slight pace.Employment gains were small and prices were stable.Consumer spending increased by a small margin.Manufacturers reported moderate revenue growth.Home sales were disappointing and life sciences leasing activity slowed dramatically.The outlook was optimistic outside of real estate,but remained neutral or became increasingly pessimistic among real estate contacts.New York Regional economic activity stabilized after a period of weakness.Labor market conditions were strong,with some firming in recent weeks.Inflationary pressures eased noticeably.Consumer spending grew steadily.Housing markets were solid but low inventory continued to restrain sales activity.The Beige Book June 20232 National Summary Philadelphia Business activity continued to decline slightly during the current Beige Book period.Consumer demand ticked down,although elevated profit margins buoyed overall sales figures.Employment fell slightly despite improved labor availability.Wage growth and inflation subsided but continued at a modest pace.Expectations for economic growth remained subdued.Cleveland The Fourth District economy was generally stable in recent weeks as high interest rates continued to con-strain households big-ticket goods purchases and busi-nesses project plans.Bankers and transportation firms cited these effects as contributing to weaker demand for their own services.Nevertheless,contacts were general-ly more optimistic about the near-term outlook and less concerned that a U.S.recession would occur in 2023.Richmond The regional economy grew slightly in recent weeks.Consumer spending on retail goods,as well as on travel and tourism,picked up modestly.Manufacturing and transportation sectors noted a slowdown in demand.Residential real estate was constrained by a lack of inventory.Commercial real estate activity and lending declined.Employment increased moderately and price growth eased slightly but remained robust,overall.Atlanta Economic activity grew slowly.Labor markets became less tight,and wage pressures eased.Nonlabor costs moderated,on balance.Discretionary retail sales sof-tened.Auto sales remained strong.Domestic leisure travel softened,and international and business travel rose.Housing demand remained strong.Transportation activity slowed.Energy demand was steady.Agriculture conditions softened.Chicago Economic activity was little changed.Employment in-creased moderately;nonbusiness contacts saw little change in activity;consumer spending was flat;business spending and construction and real estate activity de-clined slightly;and manufacturing decreased modestly.Prices and wages rose moderately,while financial condi-tions tightened slightly further.Expectations for farm incomes in 2023 decreased some.St.Louis Economic conditions have remained unchanged since our previous report.Employers continued to struggle finding skilled workers,but turnover slowed and wage pressures lessened.Consumer spending was largely steady,but contacts reported a shift away from discre-tionary goods.Homebuying activity increased,but the commercial real estate sector saw worsening conditions.Minneapolis Economic activity in the region grew slightly in recent weeks.Employment rose moderately as labor availability improved.Price pressures were mild and wages rose moderately.Consumer spending was flat.Professional services reported solid activity and a positive outlook.Residential construction and real estate remained low.Dry conditions have lowered the farm outlook.Minority-and women-owned firms reported steady activity.Kansas City Total economic activity across the Tenth District changed little during June.Though hiring was flat,ex-pected employment levels at most businesses continued to point downward.Businesses predominantly reported they are relying on natural turnover and attrition to re-duce their headcounts,rather than layoffs.Concerns about credit quality and credit access rose broadly,including among micro-businesses,consumers,and commercial real estate.Dallas Modest expansion continued buoyed by gains in the service sector and single-family housing.Factory output,drilling activity and loan demand declined,and credit conditions tightened further.Employment rose moderate-ly,and wage growth remained high.Price pressures evaporated in manufacturing but stayed elevated in the service sector.Uncertainty continued to rise,and con-tacts cited diminishing demand,higher labor costs,rising interest rates,and inflation as their primary outlook con-cerns.San Francisco Economic activity softened modestly.Labor availability improved across sectors.Wage growth slowed notably while price increases persisted.Retail sales moderated,and activity in the services sectors eased somewhat.Manufacturing activity was solid but weakened slightly,while conditions in the agriculture and residential real estate sectors were mixed.Commercial real estate activity fell,and financial sector activity was largely un-changed.A-1Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Summary of Economic Activity Business activity expanded at a slight pace in recent weeks,with modest increases in employment and roughly even prices.Consumer spending increased by a small margin,as retail sales increased modestly and tourism was flat.Manu-facturers reported mixed results but sales growth was moderate on average.Software and IT services firms enjoyed stable demand and modest revenue gains.Residential home sales increased slightly in May from the previous month but remained below seasonal norms.Commercial real estate markets weakened further,with abrupt declines in life sciences leasing and financial distress showing up for office properties.The outlook was mostly optimistic among con-tacts outside of real estate.Residential real estate contacts expected sales to remain muted and commercial real estate contacts braced for declines in activity and property values moving forward.Labor Markets Employment increased modestly and wage growth con-tinued to moderate as labor market imbalances eased further.Among retail and tourism contacts,labor demand remained healthy but showed signs of moderating,and there were modest improvements in the available labor supply.Some airline contacts continued to struggle to fill positions but said that hiring and training were underway to improve the situation.A clothing retailer noted that it had taken several months to fill 200 warehouse jobs,but they were nonetheless able to fill all positions.Following two summers of worker shortages on Cape Cod,some restaurant and hotel owners there have achieved effi-ciencies enabling them to operate with a smaller staff.In manufacturing,the labor market remained tight,although contacts said that it had improved over last year,and headcounts increased modestly.Headcounts at software and IT firms were up slightly,and hiring plans were mixed.Contacts noted that turnover had either stabilized(albeit at above-average rates)or decreased in recent months,and reductions in turnover and absenteeism reduced the need for hiring at some firms.Wage pres-sures were described as stable or,in most cases,declin-ing,as wage growth rates continued to fall back to more moderate levels.Prices Prices were mostly stable,with some exceptions,as cost pressures abated further.A clothing retailer said that input cost growth had ceased altogether and that their output prices were flat.Manufacturing contacts reported a very benign pricing environment,with one even men-tioning the possibility of deflation.Prices were slightly higher among IT contacts,but with no further price in-creases anticipated.Hotel room rates in Greater Boston increased in excess of seasonal patterns,rising 12 per-cent on a year-over