全球科技行业2026年展望（亚太）.pdf

M FoundationGlobal Technology|Asia PacificGlobal Tech Outlook 2026 Morgan Stanley&Co.International plc+Shawn KimEquity Analyst Shawn.Kim [phone] Lee SimpsonEquity Analyst Lee.Simpson [phone] Nigel van PuttenEquity Analyst Nigel.Putten [phone] Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Duan LiuEquity Analyst Duan.Liu [phone] Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research.Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report.+=Analysts employed by non-U.S.affiliates are not registered with FINRA,may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company,public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.January 6,2026 09:50 AM GMT M Foundation2Asia and Europe Technology Hardware6 January 2026Global Tech Outlook 2026M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C HEuropeMORGAN STANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONAL PLC+Shawn Kim Equity analystshawn.kim+44 20 7677 1018Lee SimpsonEquity analystlee.simpson+44 20 7425 3378Nigel van PuttenEquity analystnigel.putten+44 20 7425 2803All information as of January 5th 2025Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research.Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report.+=Analysts employed by non-U.S.affiliates are not registered with FINRA,may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company,public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.hVvWkVcZnVNAMBkZ9PaO6MtRnNtRoQfQpPpOiNqQqPbRnPnMNZrRpPwMqRvMM FoundationMorgan Stanley Research32Asia and European TechnologyShawn KimM Foundation4Source:OpenRouter,Morgan Stanley ResearchToken Demand Continues To Be StrongM FoundationMorgan Stanley Research5Where Are We in the Cycle?Source:SIA,FactSet,Morgan Stanley Research estimates SOX Index Valuation vs.Global Semiconductor Revenue YoY%M Foundation6Source:Morgan Stanley Research estimatesGlobal sector picks SemiconductorsM FoundationMorgan Stanley Research7Source:Morgan Stanley Research estimatesSector ViewAI HardwareAI HardwareWe expect total Nvidia GPU server rack shipments to double y/y in 2026,from 28k in 2025,outgrowing ASIC market sequentially and on a YoY baisis.Data center-related revenue is expected to be 40%of overall 2025 revenue and at least 50%in 2026.The offerings are margin-accretive at the operating level.Most Preferred:Wiwynn,Accton,Kingslide,BizLink,Delta,WistronLeast Preferred:Giga-ByteSubstratesSubstratesABF substrate demand has bottomed,with AI GPU/Accelerators as the key growth driver going forward.BT substrate has benefitted from the memory super-cycle and raw material price increases,which drive upward revisions to both demand volumes and ASPs.Most Preferred:Unimicron,SEMCOLeast Preferred:NYPCBMLCCMLCCMLCC inventory level is lean,and AI server will serve as a key demand driver in 2026Most Preferred:SEMCOLeast Preferred:iPhone Supply iPhone Supply ChainChainApple has recently added roughly 60K N3P wafers at TMSC,implying up to 24M incremental iPhone processors if all were for A19 production-an upside that would materially raise our FY26 iPhone outlook.But we believe part of the increase likely supports M5 ultra chips for Apples Private Cloud Compute ahead of the Spring 2026 Apple Intelligence/Siri relaunch.Most Preferred:Hon HaiLeast Preferred:Thermal SolutionsThermal SolutionsWe are encouraged to see ramping liquid cooling component shipments in November and expect the strength to carry into 1Q26.However,the growth magnitude showed a diverse trend from our expectations.Most Preferred:AVCLeast Preferred:SunnonwealthChina SmartphoneChina SmartphoneWe expect smartphone industry to suffer from component cost increase in 2026.As a result,the smartphone margin is likely to face downward pressure in the coming quarters.For Optical lenses,due to memory cost increase,spec upgrade is likely to face BOM pressure.We expect mid-to-low-end products to face headwinds while high-end products to be better positioned.Most Preferred:XiaomiLeast Preferred:Display/TVDisplay/TVTV panel prices appear to be bottoming earlier than expected,improving near-term sentiment,but investors should watch for rising memory costs that may pressure NB panel pricing,as well as the timing and sustainability of any TV panel price increases and the front-loaded shipment profile expected for 2026.Most Preferred:BOELeast Preferred:SananPC OEMs/ODMs PC OEMs/ODMs We expect PC OEMs/ODMs to see margin headwinds from memory price increases in 2026,which will likely lead to multiple quarters of margin compression.Most Preferred:LenovoLeast Preferred:AcerAI Server demand to remain strong through 2026.HardwareGlobal sector picks HardwareM Foundation8Sequencing the Cycle First in,First OutSource:Morgan Stanley Research M FoundationMorgan Stanley Research9Source:Company data,Morgan Stanley ResearchDRAM pricing YoY moving higher into 1H26M Foundation10Source:Company data,Morgan Stanley ResearchMemory Inventory Normalizing M FoundationMorgan Stanley Research11Source:Company data,Morgan Stanley Research estimates(e)HBM TAMSufficiency estimates2023202420252026eHBM TSV Capacity(K wpm)Samsung 45 130 150 220 SK Hynix45 120 150 200 Micron3 20 60 90 Total93 270 360 510 Yield rate assumptionsSamsung 50%60%60%SK Hynix60%75%70%Micron50%70%70%UTR assumptionsSamsung 80%60%70%SK Hynix100%100%100%Micron100%100%100%Implied HBM production(mn Gb)Samsung 1,500 4,435 6,387 9,560 SK Hynix1,500 6,273 12,830 15,072 Micron150 729 3,548 6,459 Total3,150 11,436 22,765 31,091 Sufficiency RatioHBM Demand (mn Gb)1,866 9,059 19,161 30,565 HBM sufficiency69%26%19%2%Commodity DRAM market demand(mn Gb)209,527 243,423 291,615 363,968 Total HBM+DRAM demand(mn Gb)211,393 252,481 310,776 394,533 Commodity DRAM market supply(mn Gb)200,214 228,086 280,614 332,745 Total HBM+DRAM supply(mn Gb)203,364 239,523 303,379 363,835 Total DRAM sufficiency-4%-5%-2%-8%M Foundation122European TechnologyLee Simpson and Nigel van PuttenM FoundationMorgan Stanley Research13Source:Company data,Morgan Stanley Research estimates(E)Strong WFE growth driven by leading edge logic/foundry while China remains robust49%42%31%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,00020242025E2026EDRAM Samsung SK Hynix MicronGrowth y/y39%7%-7%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%46,00047,00048,00049,00050,00051,00052,00020242025E2026EChinaChinaGrowth y/yM Foundation14M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H13European SemiconductorsJanuary,2026ASML Positive momentum for lithography demandReuters ticker:ASML.AS Semiconductor EquipmentAnalyst:Lee SimpsonOverweight:PT 1,000Close as of 05/01/26:1053Thesis.ASML is a dominant supplier of critical toolsets for the semi manufacturing process.As we exit 2025,we see positive momentum for lithography demand at ASML over FY26/27.DRAM spend is strong,as is the speed in advanced logic.DUV is slowing,including with China,but margins may still be fine in FY26.We recently raised our PT to 1,000,moving ASML to a Top Pick in our European Semi coverage.ValuationBase case:1,000-29x FY27 EPS of 34Bull case:1,400-35x FY26 EPS of 40Bear case:400-20 x FY26 EPS of 20Source:FactSet0 x10 x20 x30 x40 x50 x60 x020040060080010001200Sep 20Dec 20Mar 21Jun 21Sep 21Dec 21Mar 22Jun 22Sep 22Dec 22Mar 23Jun 23Sep 23Dec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25ASMLSox IndexASML P/E(rhs)Avg P/E(rhs)Source:Company data,Morgan Stanley Research estimates(e)38416473020406080FY24FY25eFY26eFY27eEUV Order Intake(FY24-27e)TotalTSMCSamsungIntelHynixMicronOtherM FoundationMorgan Stanley Research15M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H14European SemiconductorsJanuary,2026ASM Highest exposure to advanced logic/foundryReuters ticker:ASMI.AS Semiconductor EquipmentAnalyst:Nigel van PuttenOverweight;PT 625Close as of 05/01/26:577ValuationBase case:625-30 x FY27 EPS Bull case:800-34x FY27 on 12%higher EPSBear case:350-22x FY27 on 20%lower EPSSource:FactSet0 x10 x20 x30 x40 x50 x60 x0100200300400500600700800Sep 20Dec 20Mar 21Jun 21Sep 21Dec 21Mar 22Jun 22Sep 22Dec 22Mar 23Jun 23Sep 23Dec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25ASMSox IndexASM P/E(rhs)Avg P/E(rhs)Thesis.ASMI lagged for much of the last year but as we observe positive developments in leading edge logic we expect the market to start to appreciate stocks with higher exposure,which is why ASMI is a Top Pick in our coverage.Our base case is built on the view that headwinds into 2026 are understood and growth will accelerate into FY27 driven by leading edge logic/foundry and advanced DRAM to support the AI infrastructure roll-out.Source:Company data,Morgan Stanley Research estimates(e)M Foundation16M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H15European SemiconductorsJanuary,2026Besi Strong growth across the board Reuters ticker:BESI.AS Semiconductor EquipmentAnalyst:Nigel van PuttenOverweight;PT 160Close as of 05/01/26:154Thesis.Investors are taking note of Besi and not just because of hybrid bonding.Although we expect progress in the next year on this side,the earnings growth is likely to come from the rest of the portfolio.In 2025 AI emerged as a broad-based driver for Besi,and was able to offset weakness elsewhere.We expect strength to continue but this recovery to broaden out resulting in strong growth across the board.ValuationBase case:160-32x FY27 EPSBull case:235-40 x FY27 EPS Bear case:85-25x FY27 on EPS 30%belowSource:FactSet0 x10 x20 x30 x40 x50 x60 x020406080100120140160180Sep 20Dec 20Mar 21Jun 21Sep 21Dec 21Mar 22Jun 22Sep 22Dec 22Mar 23Jun 23Sep 23Dec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25BESISox IndexBESI P/E(rhs)Avg P/E(rhs)Source:Company data,Morgan Stanley Research estimates(e)M FoundationMorgan Stanley Research17Analog Semis Weak Autos But Bright Spots In Data Centres Source:FactSet,Morgan Stanley ResearchSource:Infineon 3Q25 Investor PresentationAutos:3Q25 largest QQ DOI%decline in 5 years potential for FY26 channel replenishment.Data Centres:Market intrigue on the power semi content in a power sidecar.M Foundation18M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H17European SemiconductorsJanuary,2026Infineon Near term de-stocking price difficulties but longer-term data centre tailwindsReuters ticker:IFXGn.DE Semiconductor EquipmentAnalyst:Lee SimpsonOverweight;PT 40Close as of 05/01/26:40Thesis.An automotive semis cycle blighted by rolling de-stocking price difficulties and skittish end demand is causing concern for the Infineon narrative.And yet much of this is known.The company has already suggested that light vehicle production(LVP)estimates of c.91m(source:S&P)may be too optimistic,especially into 1H26,and a number closer to c.88m is more appropriate-we agree.Longer term,however,there are clear tailwinds in AI data centre spend as well as in grid optimisation.We expect sentiment to see-saw between these cyclical and secular drivers this year but ultimately expect the cycle to turn(modest recovery)and clarity to emerge that IFX is strategic in power semis spend in data centres.ValuationBase case:40-22x FY26 EPS of 1.80Bull case:75-25x FY26 EPS of 3.00Bear case:18-12x FY26 EPS of 1.50Source:FactSet0 x5x10 x15x20 x25x30 x35x40 x0102030405060708090Sep 20Dec 20Mar 21Jun 21Sep 21Dec 21Mar 22Jun 22Sep 22Dec 22Mar 23Jun 23Sep 23Dec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25IFXSox IndexIFX P/E(rhs)Avg P/E(rhs)M FoundationMorgan Stanley Research19Design&IP Integration and Chiplets in focusSource:FactSet,Morgan Stanley Research Market sees CDNS as the EDA winner Arms venture into chip design in focus Arm Total Design Partners for the Chiplet EcosystemSource:Arm OCP presentation slide M Foundation20Price TableM FoundationMorgan Stanley Research21DisclosuresThe information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited(which accepts the responsibility for its contents)and/or Morgan Stanley Asia(Singapore)Pte.(Registration number 199206298Z)and/or Morgan Stanley Asia(Singapore)Securities Pte Ltd(Registration number 200008434H),regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore(which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from,or in connection with,Morgan 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Budhkar Marg,Worli,Mumbai 400018,India;Telephone no.+91-22-61181000;Compliance Officer Details:Mr.Tejarshi Hardas,Tel.No.91-22-61181000 or Email:tejarshi.hardas;Grievance officer details:Mr.Tejarshi Hardas,Tel.No.:[phone] or Email:msic-compliance which accepts the responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from,or in connection with,Morgan Stanley Research,and their affiliates(collectively,Morgan Stanley).Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited(MSICPL)may use AI tools in providing research services.All recommendations contained herein are made by the duly qualified research analysts.For important disclosures,stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report,please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website at or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway,(Attention:Research Management),New York,NY,10036 USA.For valuation methodology 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