2026年美国葡萄酒产业状况报告（英文版）.pdf

State of the U.S.Wine Industry 2026Written by Rob McMillanEVP&FounderSilicon Valley Bank Wine Division1Introduction32Executive summary43Review of last years predictions54Annual SVB State of the U.S.Wine Industry survey95Success guide226U.S.Wine demand,correction and length317Financial performance trends&benchmarks408Technical appendix44ContentsSTATE OF THE U.S.WINE INDUSTRY 20262Rob McMillanEVP&Founder,SVB Wine Divisionrmcmillan Rob McMillan is one of the top wine-business analysts in the United States and the author of Silicon Valley Banks highly regarded annual State of the Wine Industry Report,described by The New York Times as“probably the most influential analysis of its kind.”With Robs decades of experience researching the industry and working with winery clients,his views are sought after and trusted by winery owners,journalists,entrepreneurs and investors.He is a prominent speaker,domestically and internationally,and you will find him extensively quoted in the national,regional and trade press.IntroductionFor 26 consecutive years,Silicon Valley Bank has published the State of the U.S.Wine Industry Report,offering wineries,growers,distributors,lenders,educators,the press,and the broader supply chain a clear view of where the wine industry stands,how we got here,and what the future holds.This report isnt just an academic exercise.Its purpose is to harness insights from some of the most experienced insiders in the wine business,providing an unmatched,data-driven understanding of industry risks,opportunities and realities.But we never stop trying to improve,and this year youll notice a change that reflects industry needs.Starting with the 2018 report,we began alerting the industry to an approaching demand correction that would require a response.The business was otherwise doing well so a prediction of that type wasnt gratefully received.But,we were out ahead of trends as a thought leader should be.Now that were here,theres no need to tell you about the threat that has arrived;everyone now knows and understands.So,were refocusing our view to recovery.Our goal with the report is partly to raise awareness.We all need to be attentive to the factors that surround our business.We will still provide you with our view of the current industry dynamics.But starting with this report,our primary goalwith continued industry cooperation in our two surveysis to offer more benchmarking and planning tools,unique street-level intelligence and ideas to help you adapt.After reading this report,we hope you will come away inspired and equipped with action plans that enhance your chances of success in 2026 and beyond.Rob McMillanSTATE OF THE U.S.WINE INDUSTRY 20263STATE OF THE U.S.WINE INDUSTRY 20264Executive summaryThe U.S.wine industry enters 2026 in a period defined as much by challenge as by opportunity for those willing to evolve.Across every dataset in this report,one finding is unmistakable:success today is behavioral.You have to see the problem clearly and decide to reorient your message towards an evolved,and younger consumer base with different desires and values.The long era of passive demandwhen visitation,distributor pull and automatic club growth could mask strategic shortcomingshas ended.What has emerged is a widening performance gap in which the upper quartile wineries continue to grow despite industry contraction,while the lower quartiles struggle to adapt.This divide is evident not only in sales growth and pricing power but in how wineries describe their year.Top-performers focus on dialed-in consumer engagement,disciplined inventory and financial management,more precise brand positioning,and hospitality-centered experiences that build loyalty rather than throughput.Digital tools amplify these efforts rather than substituting for them.By contrast,lower-performing wineries cite slowing traffic,distributor disengagement,discounting and rising costsresponses that,while accurate,reflect the lack of strategic attention.We are at a point where the problem has been identified.Now we need laser focus on solving the problem.The SVB demographic and cohort consumption approach reinforces why these behavioral differences matter.Consumption remains under pressure.That said,there is good news as the steepest part of the downturn appears to be waning and our analysis suggests we are entering a new phase in the correction.Yes,2026 will still be a challenging year,but the industry is at least approaching a point of stabilization.The recovery that follows will favor those already executing outward-facing,consumer-driven strategies.Key forecast outputs2025 year-end volume:329 million cases(down from 335.9 million in 2024)2025 year-end revenue:$74.3 billion(down from$75.5 billion)Timing of Improvement:Declines moderating in 2026;a bumpy bottom forming in 20272028,followed by slow,modest growth thereafterAs we move through this demand correction,we can see the industry is bifurcating into those doing well and those not doing so well.Since the industry will downsize,you dont want to be in that second group today.The next phase of this correction will reward wineries that plan with clarity,engage with purpose and adapt with discipline.Said succinctly,the next phase will reward those who recognize the reasons behind the changing demand and then fundamentally change their businesses to accommodate it.Those who continue to do what theyve always done will find their strategies failing as they watch from the sidelines,clinging to the fraying belief that their way has always worked before.While we are predicting change,I need to underscore that the most crucial goal isnt being right about exactly when the correction bottoms,as if the bottom means,“well all return to normal.”That thinking will be your undoing.The bottom will arrive for your business when the time is right.The most important goal now is to be predictive of the evolved consumer,identify opportunities,and prepare to benefit from a changed business as market demand bottoms.STATE OF THE U.S.WINE INDUSTRY 20265Review of last years predictionsLast year,we said the following:“Premium wineries would see slower dollar growth but remain stable relative to the broader market.Clubs would continue to struggle with retention.Off-premise volume would fall againimpacted by softness below$12 and increased competition from spirits and RTDs.On-premise would recover moderately,but not to pre-COVID levels,as consumers reallocated spending across a wider variety of beverage categories.”We also predicted that:Total volume demanded would continue to trend downward.Value would flatten as pricing power weakened and we entered a discounting environment.Oversupply would remain a defining feature of the business.Distributor consolidation and brand prioritization would intensify.Younger consumers would adopt the category later in life and at lower consumption levels.And we said that the premium segmentparticularly$20$40 wineswould remain relatively resilient,but not immune to the broader market correction.What we got rightWe hit on most of our predictions.Volume did decline,consistent with projections.Value flattened in a discounting environment,held up by the premium segment,but even that has begun to soften.The under-$12 category deteriorated more rapidly,pushing production level volumes to their lowest in more than a decade.On-premise waffled in with visitation,but checks increased along with inflation,consistent with predictions of a“partial recovery.”Wholesale remained challenging,as distributors continued to sit on a large backup of alcohol and streamlined portfolios while redirecting focus toward higher-turning SKUs.Younger consumers remained fragmented across beverage types,reinforcing the prediction that wine is losing its historical generational anchor.Yet there is hope in the 32 46-year-old alcohol beverage consumers.STATE OF THE U.S.WINE INDUSTRY 20266What we missedWe performed remarkably well but didnt give sufficient weight to two factors:1.The path of discounting in wholesale and retail.We predicted that this would continue to be a discounting environment,but were surprised there wasnt greater evidence in the retail scan data.Discounting is taking place,but much of the discounting is taking place in less obvious private label sales.While there are no good sources of accurate private-label sales data,based on company reports,we believe the vast amount of high-quality bulk wine available is creating compelling consumer value in private-label,where wine demand is growing in double digits,led by Total Wine&More and Costco but,extending into mainstream establishments like Kroger.That is a positive form of discounting that attracts new value-seeking consumers,protects existing brand value and helps drain the ocean of bulk wine.2.The degree of premium slowdown.While premium wines remain stronger than the broader category,demand softened faster than anticipated,driven by inflationary pressure,shifting discretionary spending and a decline in affluent consumer spending.Visitation continued to erode at smaller hospitality-focused wineries,while average check held in DTC,or direct-to-consumer,sales at small DTC-focused wineries slipped in all but the top quartile.The premium wine industry and luxury retail consumer share similar headwinds and related impacts.While too extensive of a topic to cover in this report,further ideation is available by reviewing the Bain Worldwide Luxury Goods Market Study,and the State of Fashion from McKinsey&Company.2026 predictionsThe operating environment in 2026 will continue to reflect the structural forces reshaping wine demand.Declining volume,value compression,and persistent oversupplyremain in place,yet the rate of deterioration will begin slowing in 2026.What emerges from the data is a picture of a market still challenged,but one with stabilization on the horizon.There is a growing divide characterized by the separation between wineries that adapt and those that remain tethered to the previous era of strong growth.With no immediate increase in demand in sight,right-sizing industry production capacity becomes a reality.2026 will mark the point in this correction where some growers and wine companies that have struggled for the past five years will publicly capitulate and exit.The press will likely focus on those specific disappointing business outcomes.While there is no way to hide from it,that will obfuscate progress from upper-quartile businesses and the improvement that I expect to see from a slowing rate of decline.STATE OF THE U.S.WINE INDUSTRY 202672026 predictions(continued)Continued but moderating volume declinesThe decline in total U.S.wine volume is expected to persist into 2026,but the steepest contraction appears behind us.Demand softness will continue across price tiers,particularly below$12.Yet,the demographic drag that has defined the past several years will begin to ease as the population of 3045-year-old consumers moves deeper into wine-friendly life stages.The market has not yet found a bottom,but the slope of decline is flattening slightly,signaling that the industry is moving from an acute contraction toward a gradual bottoming.Value pressure in the premium segmentPremium wineries will face ongoing headwinds,including weaker wine club retention,lower tasting room conversion rates and rising price resistance.While the premium tier will continue to outperform the lower-priced segment,it is not insulated from broader consumer change.Inflationary fatigue,shifting discretionary priorities and a slowdown in affluent consumer spending have tempered pricing power.Premium demand remains viable,but it now requires more persuasive value communication and/or hospitality-led differentiation rather than relying solely on price increases.New paths to promote and sell wine are necessary.Pricing has to be a part of your strategy formulation and not a strategy in itself.It must be included when evaluating new selling options.Oversupply remains a structural headwindWhile the pricing of grape contracts is part of the issue with unfilled grape contracts,in some cases,lowering the price to zero isnt sufficient to have all production under contract.More acreage will have to be removed,particularly in regions producing for less expensive brands.We are still supportive of a USDA Marketing Order to help the category.While discussions are underway in several circles,given the disappointing experience with WineRAMP in 2021,I believe the odds of industry traction for a collaborative solution remain low.Id love to be wrong.Premium wineries are feeling the tension between holding back the next release or discounting a current slow-moving vintage.Tactical creativity in selling is the mandate.The specific solution is winery and region specific.Improvement has to start in retail sales before we can expect to see bloated wholesale inventories improve.While we expect progress on both,the supply chain wont be fully in balance at the end of 2026There is too much planted acreage in specific premium varietals.The time is becoming ripe when some growers in the best AVAs will find success experimenting with varietals that were successful decades ago and might appeal again as an entry priced premium wine.That is not a license to rip without a sales plan.STATE OF THE U.S.WINE INDUSTRY 202682026 will be another challenging year,yet a transitional year where some wineries and growers will close their doors while others stake their claim to the future of wine.I would caution believing anyone who suggests that 2026 will bring with it growth.That is just unsupported hope.The math isnt there.However,the market is beginning to form a bottom,especially in the premium segment.Its still early in the game,but our analysis leads us to believe that green shoots will begin to emerge in later 2026 and the bottom will show itself in 2027 and 2028.The wineries best positioned for the next era will be those with an external view now,those who understand the opportunity tomorrow and who will develop strategies to move away from dated but embedded tactics weve grown accustomed to and will find whats next.I worry about all the people who Ive spoken with that are holding on by their fingernails and waiting for a bottom as if“everything will go back to normal.”To those,I have to be plain spoken:What has been normal will not be normal again.The rising tide wont lift all boats after we bottom.You have to evolve now to be relevant and take advantage of whats coming.RNDCs exit from California is a symptom of other issues our wholesale partners are dealing with.They will continue to go through transformative change in the years ahead.DtC tactics need to evolve from the overreliance on hospitality and experience at the winery,to an expanded view of DtC that meets the consumer where they live.The most important goal is to be relevant to the lifestyles of a different consumer.You have to compete to earn share and be a