2026年交易科技的悖论碎片化中的互联白皮书(英文版).pdf

The TradeTech Paradox:Connectivity Amid FragmentationI N S I G H T R E P O R TJ A N U A R Y 2 0 2 6In collaboration with the Ministry of Foreign Trade of the United Arab Emirates and Abu Dhabi Department of Economic DevelopmentImages:Adobe Stock,Midjourney,Studio Miko.Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.2026 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.ContentsForeword 3Executive summary 4Introduction 51 The trade stack 61.1 Global foundational framework 71.2 National governance layer 81.3 Trade enabler layer 81.4 Enterprise layer 91.5 Interactions between layers 92 The tradetech stack 102.1 Single-layer connections:innovations within layers 112.3 Multi-layer connections bridging layers 173 Beyond the tech 223.1 Inter-governmental collaboration 233.2 Connector countries 253.3 Cross-layer partnerships 263.4 Data infrastructure 273.5 Human capacity 283.6 Ethics 294 Strategic foresight stress test:exploring the resilience 30 of trade technologies in a changing worldConclusion 34Contributors 35Endnotes 37The TradeTech Paradox:Connectivity Amid Fragmentation2The world is entering a period of profound transformation in global trade.Shifting geopolitical alignments and evolving supply patterns are reshaping global flows,redefining how economies connect and compete and redrawing the map of international commerce.Trade technology has emerged as a source of stability and progress,reinforcing trust and continuity,helping global supply chains remain connected amid rapid change.This years report showcases catalytic efforts designed to responsibly scale innovations,including the TradeTech Regulatory Sandbox,helping technology solutions increase trust and efficiency inglobal trade.At the core of this years work lies a new conceptual lens:the tradetech stack.This reveals how trade is linked across global institutions,national regulators,enablers and enterprises through a single,integrated digital continuum.Within this structure,technology is not a separate component,it functions as the connective infrastructure that integrates every layer,ensuring that commerce remains efficient,predictable and inclusive,even inchallenging times.The report underscores that technologys potential is best realized when it is guided by collaboration.Tradetech both requires collaboration between governments,industry and technology partners,and enables it turning complexity into opportunity.Through the TradeTech Global Initiative,the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Foreign Trade,the Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development and the World Economic Forum continue to advance this vision,positioning technology as a strategic bridge between economies and a catalyst for shared prosperity.We invite all stakeholders to join us in shaping a future where trade is not divided by disruption but strengthened by collaboration,and where technology serves as the enduring backbone of a more resilient global economy.Brge BrendePresident and Chief Executive Officer,World Economic ForumThani bin Ahmed Al ZeyoudiMinister of Foreign Trade,Ministry of Foreign Trade of the United Arab EmiratesAhmed Jasim Al Zaabi Chairman,Abu Dhabi Department of Economic DevelopmentForewordThe TradeTech Paradox:Connectivity Amid FragmentationJanuary 2026The TradeTech Paradox:Connectivity Amid Fragmentation3Executive summaryAlthough geopolitics has always influenced global trade,the scale and speed of todays shifts signify a more profound transformation.Specifically,the global order underpinning trade,notably the rules,alliances and systems that have governed exchange for decades,is being actively rewritten.Yet one truth remains constant:the global economy thrives the most when some level of stability and direction is present.As the world fragments and rebuilds,the critical question becomes:how can trade remain stable,connected and resilient?Technology offers part of the answer.The modern integration of digital infrastructure across every layer of the trading system has allowed global commerce to transform from a series of transactions into an interconnected,adaptive network capable of withstanding disruption.From smart logistics to digital trade finance,technology enables visibility,trust and agility across borders,helping global trade evolve even in turbulent times.Concrete examples throughout the report demonstrate how emerging technologies are already enabling new efficiencies and inclusion across the trade ecosystem,such as:Agentic artificial intelligence(AI)and intelligent assistants empowering small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)to compete globally Digital trade finance platforms widening access to liquidity and accelerating time-to-cash Blockchain and digital documentation tools strengthening compliance The internet of things(IoT),data platforms and digital twins increasing transparency and predictability across complex supply chainsHowever,technology alone cannot safeguard the system it powers.As digital infrastructure becomes a bargaining chip in geopolitical competition,relying on technology as the sole solution risks deepening vulnerability.Thus,resilient trade requires more than innovation;it requires strong governance,collaboration and human capability.This report introduces a new way to visualize this relationship:the tradetech stack.The tradetech stack illustrates how institutions,technology and the people who drive them interact as a living framework,one that is constantly evolving to remain effective.However,unlike the role of governments,international organizations or enterprises,in the tradetech stack,technology is not a fixed layer;it is a dynamic tool that connects every single individual and institution.It is the connecting fabric of trade.Thus,to ensure that trade remains stable,technology must be enabled.This years analysis highlights three reinforcing pillars essential to strengthening the connecting fabric of global trade:1 Collaborative governance 2 Cross-layer partnerships 3 Human capacity Ultimately,the resilience of technology amid geopolitical shifts depends not only on digital innovation but on human collaboration.By reinforcing both the digital and human layers of the global trading system,technology,as an integral part of the tradetech stack,provides a pathway towards a more inclusive,efficient and adaptive era of global commerce.In an era of geopolitical fracture,the future of trade depends on how technology connects,protects and endures.The TradeTech Paradox:Connectivity Amid Fragmentation4Since the end of World War II,international trade has been anchored by a rules-based system and institutions that reduced trade barriers and expanded markets.The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade(GATT),succeeded by the World Trade Organization(WTO),provided the framework for the gradual liberalization of global exchange,which resulted in a 4,300%growth in world trade levels since 1950.1 Technological developments played a key role in this growth;containerization,digital networks and data-driven operations empowered businesses to build complex supply chains across borders.This trade growth is now threatened by heightened geopolitical risk.2 Global merchandise trade volume is forecast to grow by only 2.4%in 2025,down from 2.8%in 2024,and slow even further in 2026 to just 0.5%as a result of higher tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.3 Discriminatory trade policies have seen a remarkable increase,rising from 55 in2019 to 2,752 in 2024.4This uncertain trade environment is making it more difficult for both governments and businesses to operate.Policy-makers are trying to balance security,resilience and competitiveness while firms must reorganize their supply chains and comply with an increasing number of trade rules.Technology is also affected by these geopolitical shifts,notably through export controls,data sovereignty and market access restrictions.Today,technology sits at the intersection of national security and competitive advantage.Technology can enable the movement of goods,money and data,creating new avenues for collaboration between all actors in the system,while also deepening strategic competition,as nations seek to secure technological supremacy.In this context,global trade is increasingly shaped by a tradetech paradox:geopolitical tensions on one hand,and unprecedented technological connectivity on the other.Political divergence and strategic rivalries are pulling supply chains apart,while technological innovations are enabling new forms of collaboration and connection.IntroductionGeopolitics is reshaping trade and technology,yet digital tools can sustain flows,deepen resilience and expand collaboration across borders.The TradeTech Paradox:Connectivity Amid Fragmentation5The trade stack1The trade stack is a living framework that reveals how institutions and businesses come together to shape modern commerce.The TradeTech Paradox:Connectivity Amid Fragmentation6Because international trade involves many overlapping systems and actors,it is difficult to capture in a simple,cohesive framework.The trade stack offers a way to organize and understand the complex web of modern international trade.It provides a framework that groups the many actors and institutions involved in global commerce into several connected layers.Each layer represents a different function of how trade is governed,enabled and created.The stack is not a strict hierarchy or a complete description of reality,but a tool for understanding how the system fits together.Because trade is deeply interconnected,there will always be overlap between layers,and some organizations or systems may operate across more than one.Others may not fit neatly into any single layer.This overlap is intentional:it shows that the global trading system is not a set of separate parts,but a network where policy,facilitation and production constantly interact.The global foundational framework defines the institutional and normative base of the trade system.It consists of international organizations,multilateral agreements and standard-setting bodies that establish the rules,norms and shared commitments guiding global commerce.This layer doesnt move or produce any goods but instead decides the circumstances under which global trade can function.1.1 Global foundational frameworkGlobal foundational frameworkTABLE 1RolesExamples of participating actorsEstablish international trade and economic frameworks that govern cross-border exchange,competition and cooperation.Multilateral organizations such as the WTO,International Monetary Fund(IMF),World Bank,United Nations Trade and Development(UNCTAD);regional trade blocs such as the European Union,Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN),and the African Continental Free Trade Area(AfCFTA);plurilateral economic partnershipsDevelop global standards and norms for product quality,safety,data governance and interoperability across borders.International standards bodies such as the International Organization for Standardization(ISO),International Telecommunication Union(ITU),and World Customs Organization(WCO);data governance alliancesCoordinate multilateral agreements and dispute settlement mechanisms to ensure stability and fairness in global trade.WTO committees and dispute panels,international arbitration courts,regional economic councilsProvide global financing,development assistance,and technical capacity-building for trade infrastructure and digital transformation.Development banks such as the World Bank,Asian Development Bank(ADB),African Development Bank(AfDB);UN agencies;donor alliancesDefine and promote sustainability,labour and human rights frameworks that guide ethical and inclusive global commerce.The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)the International Labour Organization(ILO),the Global Reporting Initiative(GRI)Convene research,knowledge and data platforms that generate shared evidence and policy insight for international trade governance.Academic consortia,think tank networks,intergovernmental research bodiesThe TradeTech Paradox:Connectivity Amid Fragmentation7The national governance layer translates global frameworks into domestic policy and regulation.It includes national governments,ministries and agencies that craft and enforce trade laws,customs procedures,fiscal instruments and digital governance policies.These actors ensure compliance with international obligations while protecting national interests and fostering innovation and competitiveness.The trade enabler layer is the operational engine of trade:the ecosystem that moves,finances,verifies and connects goods,services and data across borders.It includes logistics and transport providers,financial intermediaries,certification and inspection agencies,and sustainability verifiers,among others.1.2 National governance layer1.3 Trade enabler layerNational governance layerTABLE 2Trade enabler layerTABLE 3RolesExamples of participating actorsSet and enforce national trade,economic and industrial policy to guide competitiveness,innovation and sustainable growthMinistries or departments of trade,economy and industry;national planning commissions Regulate customs,tariffs and border management to ensure compliance with trade laws and international agreements.Customs and border protection agencies,ministries of finance or revenue,tariff authoritiesImplement and enforce domestic regulation for product safety,standards and certification to align with global norms or nationalpriorities.Standards and metrology organizations,accreditation bodies,food and drug authorities,product safety agenciesNegotiate and administer trade agreements and international commitments,representing national interests in global forums.Ministries of foreign affairs and trade negotiation units,permanent missions to international organizationsDevelop and implement digital and data governance policies to regulate cross-border data flows,digital trade and cybersecurity.Ministries of digital transformation and information technology(IT),data protection authorities,cybersecurity agenciesOversee environmental,labour and social compliance frameworks,ensuring that production and trade align with sustainability and ethicalstandardsMinistries of environment,labour and social welfare;sustainability and climate agenciesDesign and administer fiscal and financial mechanisms that enable trade and industrial activity,including subsidies,incentives and exportfinanceMinistries