手机游戏：一个不同但可持续的未来.pdf

MMMorgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research.Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report.+=Analysts employed by non-U.S.affiliates are not registered with FINRA,may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company,public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.China InternetMobile Games A Different but Sustainable FutureChinas game industry has shifted after two reforms yet it remains sustainable,thanks to content and technology enablers,longevity of key franchises,strong cash flows driving reinvestments,and a global TAM.We illuminate the monetization of mobile games via our AlphaWise survey.April 19,2022 10:57 PM GMTMMMorgan Stanley Research3Mobile Games A Different but Sustainable FutureChinas video games industry underwent reforms during 2018 and 2021-22.Following the second set,game license approvals resumed on April 11.Although the industry now seemingly operates in a more constrained manner given the reduced number of licenses,less gaming time for minors,and a stricter content regime,we see growth reviving sustainably.This report has three main purposes.Industry ViewChina Internet and Other Services|Asia PacificIn-Line(1)We detail the growth drivers for mobile games,the key source of support for our video games revenue forecast of US$90bn in China by 2030,from US$46bn in 2021(8%CAGR):After expanding at an 18%CAGR during 2017-21,we expect a 10%CAGR in Chinas mobile games revenue,from US$35bn in 2021 to US$80bn by 2030,thanks to content and technology enablers,longevity of key franchises,strong cash flows driving reinvestments and sustainable product cycles,and a global TAM.From a global standpoint,mobile games revenue of US$102bn in 2021 has surpassed console and PC combined for the first time.From a top-down perspective,our 2030 forecast as a percentage of Chinas macro indicators is 0.30%of GDP(0.26%in 2021)and 0.45%of disposable income(0.43%in 2021).Those levels,are lower than for the US(0.35%of GDP in 2020)and Japan(0.60%of disposable income in 2021),reflecting a more con-strained operating environment.We also see a material margin tail-wind from lowering app store channel fees in the medium term,as we previously detailed in Valuing the Medium-Term Margin Tailwind(6 Dec 2021),providing an additional war chest for reinvestments to achieve sustainable product cycles.New business models such as blockchain-based play-to-earn,metaverse,and NFT have been evolving,yet it remains questionable whether these will take off in China amid tighter regulations and to what extent they will disrupt traditional gaming.(2)We illuminate the monetization of mobile games in China via our AlphaWise survey of 1,500 gamers:We see the rising impor-tance of ARPU(a combination of paying ratio and spending per capita)to sustainable growth,given the relatively saturated user base of 666mn in 2021.Genre diversification,higher-quality content,social community,and innovative monetization have proven effec-tive in boosting ARPU.Cosmetic items have become the most pop-ular items purchased,according to our survey,shifting from the predominantly pay-to-win psychology in the past in China.Many top franchises in China,which were launched 5-10 years ago or longer,are still growing today Tencents Honor of Kings,NetEases Westward Journey series,and Perfect Worlds Zhuxian.These franchises tend to maintain a stable user base with sustainable ARPU growth.(3)We reiterate Tencent and NetEase as our top picks:Although Chinas video games industry no longer enjoys its prior pace of growth,the barriers to entry have become much higher;as such,the leading platforms Tencent and NetEase,with stronger content development capabilities and resources,along with established fran-chises should continue to gain market share via sustainable product cycles in this US$200bn TAM.Over 2021-24,we expect a 12%CAGR in Tencents game revenues(excluding minors contribution),vs.16%during 2017-21,and a 14%CAGR for NetEase vs.15%during 2017-21.Exhibit 1:China video games revenue as a percentage of nominal GDP,disposable income,and private consumption 0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%0.80%200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EChina video games revenueAs%of private consumptionAs%of disposable incomeAs%of nominal GDPTwo reforms during 2018 and 2021-22Source:Morgan Stanley Research estimatesMM45 Chinas Video Games Industry A Different but Sustainable Future19 Anatomy of Chinas Mobile Games via AlphaWise Survey32 How Monetization Has Evolved 39 Do Wealthier Gamers Behave Differently?41 How Monetization May Change in Future46 Case Study of Long-Lasting Game Titles53 Stock Implications China63 Our Concerns65 Appendix Game features by Genre74 Appendix78 Risk Reward-Tencent Holdings Ltd.(0700.HK)80 Risk Reward-NetEase,Inc(NTES.O)Contents MMMorgan Stanley Research5Chinas Video Games Industry A Different but Sustainable FutureIn the last decade,the experiences of PC,console,and mobile have gradually merged.Access to video games was significantly lifted by smartphone penetration and being free to play.Global mobile games revenue reached US$102bn in 2021,larger than PC and console games combined for the first time.In our global study last year Global Video Games:What Is(and Isnt)Changing in Mobile Gaming.and Who Could Benefit?(21 Feb 2021)we set an expectation for mobile games to sustain a 15%CAGR through 2024 vs.a 1%CAGR for PC and console games combined.China,the largest video games and mobile games market by revenue,had total games revenue of US$46bn in 2021(10%CAGR since 2017).Of this,US$35bn or 76%was contributed by mobile games(18%CAGR since 2017)according to GPC and CNG.Both supply and demand have been shifting from PC to mobile since 2012.According to GlobalData,global mobile games revenue is set to reach US$272bn by 2030 i.e.,an 11%CAGR over 10 years.There are about 3bn video gamers today(40%of the global population),and we expect that to reach 4.5bn by 2030.Exhibit 2:Global mobile games revenue 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%-20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,0002015201620172018201920202021Global mobile game revenue(US$mn)Growth YoY(RHS)Source:Sensor Tower(ex-China revenue),GPC and CNG(China revenue),Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 3:Breakdown of global mobile games revenue by region in 2021 China33%US23%Japan17%South Korea5%Rest of World22%Gloal mobile game revenue by region(2021)Source:Sensor Tower(ex-China revenue),GPC and CNG(China revenue),Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 4:Global mobile games industryUnit2019202020211Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q21GLOBAL MOBILE GAMES INDUSTRY REVENUEGlobalUS$mn69,306 90,455 104,077 20,774 22,613 23,140 23,965 25,944 25,209 25536 25,329 Growth YoY%15%31%15%24%34%30%35%25%11%10%6%TencentUS$mn13,554 21,258 25,539 4,980 5,083 5,670 5,543 6,385 6,277 6,538 6,154 Growth YoY%15%57%20%59%56%64%50%28%23%15%11%Market share%19.6%23.5%24.5%24.0%22.5%24.5%23.1%24.6%24.9%25.6%24.3%NetEaseUS$mn4,796 5,695 6,859 1,362 1,412 1,459 1,465 1,678 1,611 1,692 1,828 Growth YoY%11%19%20%8%17%25%26%23%14%16%25%Market share%6.9%6.3%6.6%6.6%6.2%6.3%6.1%6.5%6.4%6.6%7.2%Perfect WorldUS$mn561 884 718 150 127 249 186 Growth YoY%37%57%-19%Market share%0.8%1.0%0.7%0.6%0.5%1.0%0.7%ChinaUS$mn22,871 30,401 36,756 7,934 6,964 7,360 8,179 9,051 8,606 8,534 8,507 Growth YoY%13%33%21%43%21%27%42%14%24%16%4%TencentUS$mn12,199 17,432 20,431 Growth YoY%12%43%17%Market share%53.3%57.3%55.6%NetEaseUS$mn4,058 4,757 5,957 1,174 1,169 1,182 1,235 1,435 1,388 1,479 1,611 Growth YoY%8%17%25%7%14%23%26%22%19%25%30%Market share%17.7%15.6%16.2%14.8%16.8%16.1%15.1%15.9%16.1%17.3%18.9%Perfect WorldUS$mn533 839 689 144 122 239 179 Growth YoY%34%57%-18%Market share%2.3%2.8%1.9%1.6%1.4%2.8%2.1%USUS$mn16,171 22,342 25,084 4,556 6,129 5,855 5,801 6,112 6,416 6,333 6,224 Growth YoY%25%38%12%22%56%40%34%34%5%8%7%JapanUS$mn14,457 17,376 18,602 3,818 4,270 4,739 4550 5,165 4,358 4,590 4,489 Growth YoY%4%20%7%0%25%25%32%35%2%-3%-1%NetEaseUS$mn616 814 643 160 215 240 199 191 167 153 132 Growth YoY%41%32%-21%17%42%36%31%19%-22%-36%-34%Market share%4.3%4.7%3.5%4.2%5.0%5.1%4.4%3.7%3.8%3.3%2.9%South KoreaUS$mn4,045 5,369 5,897 1,269 1,141 1,407 1,553 1,468 1,370 1,576 1,483 Growth YoY%18%33%10%33%18%45%34%16%20%12%-4%Rest of WorldUS$mn15,807 20,336 23,635 4,466 5,250 5,185 5,435 5,617 5,829 6,080 6,109 Growth YoY%19%29%16%22%37%27%28%26%11%17%12%Source:Sensor Tower,Morgan Stanley ResearchMM6Exhibit 5:China video games revenue as a percentage of nom-inal GDPdisposable income,and private consumption 0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%0.80%200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EChina video games revenueAs%of private consumptionAs%of disposable incomeAs%of nominal GDPTwo reforms during 2018 and 2021-22Source:Morgan Stanley Research estimates(1)We forecast video games revenue in China of US$90bn by 2030,an 8%CAGR from US$46bn in 2021 Chinas video games revenue represented 0.23%of nominal GDP,0.39%of disposable income,and 0.60%of private consumption in 2019(before the Covid-19 tailwind),up from 0.09%,0.16%,and 0.25%in 2011,respectively.These ratios have been largely stable since 2017,but the percentage of disposable income remains lower than Japans level of 0.6%in 2021,and the percentage of GDP remains lower than the US markets level of 0.35%in 2020,which has been rising continuously.As disposable income rises in China,we expect higher income alloca-tion towards entertainment.Our economists for China forecast pri-vate consumption to grow faster than disposable income,as household saving rate is projected to decline amid an aging popula-tion.Therefore,we benchmark our 2030 game revenue forecast to 0.60%of private consumption,on par with the ratio in 2019,instead of using the higher numbers during 2020-21,which were partially boosted by the Covid-19 home economy tailwind.This translates into total video game revenue of US$90bn by 2030,an 8%CAGR from US$46bn in 2021,implying 0.30%of Chinas GDP,still below the current US market level of 0.35%.This reflects poten-tial risks from:1.Restricting minors gaming time to three hours per week since September 2021;and 2.Chinas shrinking percentage of population in the 20-39 age group,according to United Nations forecasts,because of falling birth rates.If we assume the same 0.35%as the current US market level,Chinas video games revenue would be US$105bn by 2030.We expect the contribution from mobile to rise from US$35bn to US$80bn over the same period,a 10%CAGR.Exhibit 6:Video games revenue as percentage of disposable income vs.other countries in 20210.61%0.45%0.43%0.26%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%JapanKoreaChinaUSGame revenue as%of total disposable income(2021)Source:Statista,NewZoo,Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 7:US game revenue as percentage of GDP 0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%0.30%0.35%0.40%201220132014201520162017201820192020The US game revenue as%of GDPSource:World Bank,IDC,Morgan Stanley Research MMMorgan Stanley Research7Exhibit 8:China video games industry modelUnit20152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EChina game revenueRmb bn141 166 204 214 231 279 297 308 340 372 405 440 475 512 549 587 Growth YoY%23%18%23%5%8%21%6%4%10%9%9%8%8%8%7%7%Growth YoYRmb bn26 25 38 11 16 48 18 12 31 32 34 34 36 36 37 38 USD termsUS$bn22 25 30 32 33 40 46 47 52 57 62 68 73 79 84 90 China online game revenueRmb bn124 150 190 209 229 273 293 305 336 368 402 436 472 509 546 584 Growth YoY%29%21%27%10%10%19%7%4%10%10%9%9%8%8%7%7%Growth YoY(absolute)Rmb bn28 26 40 18 21 44 20 12 31 32 34 35 36 37 37 38 USD termsUS$bn20 23 28 32 33 40 45 47 52 57 62 67 73 78 84 90 No of gamersmn534 566 583 626 640 665 666 673 700 725 749 770 791 809 826 842 Growth YoY%3%6%3%7%2%4%0%1%4%4%3%3%3%2%2%2%Growth YoY(absolute)mn17 32 17 43 14 25 1 7 27 25 23 22 20 19 17 16 As%of internet users%78%77%76%76%75%67%65%63%63%64%64%64%64%65%65%65%Monthly ARPURmb19 22 27 28 30 34 37 38 40 42 45 47 50 52 55 58 Growth YoY%24%14%23%2%8%15%7%3%6%6%6%6%5%5%5%5%PC game revenueRmb bn73 68 74 75 71 64 67 68 67 67 67 67 67 66 66 66 Growth YoY%5%-6%9%0%-4%-11%6%1%-1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Mobile game revenueRmb bn51 82 116 134 158 210 226 237 269 301 334 369 405 442 480 518 Growth YoY%87%59%42%15%18%33%8%5%13%12%11%10%10%9%9%8%Growth YoYRmb bn24 30 34 18 24 52 16 11 32 32 34 35 36 37 38 38 As%of online game market%41%55%61%64%69%77%76%77%79%81%82%84%85%86%87%88%USD termsUS$bn8 12 17 20 23 30 35 36 41 46 51 57 62 68 74 80 No of gamersmn455 528 554 605 624 654 666 673 700 725 749 770 791 809 826 842 Growth YoY%27%16%5%9%3%5%2%1%4%4%3%3%3%2%2%2%As%of total gamers%85%93%95%97%98%98%100%100%100%100%100%100%100100%100%100%As%of mobile internet users%73%76%74%75%74%67%65%63%64%64%64%64%64%65%65%65%Monthly ARPURmb9 13 17 18 21 27 28 29 32 35 37 40 43 46 48 51 Growth YoY%47%37%35%6%14%26%6%4%9%8%8%7%7%7%6%6%USD termsUS$1.5 1.9 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.9 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 Overseas rev by Chinese publishersRmb bn33 48 56 63 80 107 117 135 153 171 190 209 227 245 263 280 Growth YoY%76%44%17%13%26%33%10%15%14%12%11%10%9%8%7%6%As%of total%19%22%22%23%26%28%28%30%31%32%32%32%32%32%32%32%As%of China revenue%24%29%27%30%35%38%39%44%45%46%47%47%48%48%48%48%Source:GPC,CNG,Morgan Stanley Research estimatesNonetheless,there are risks:Could future generations spend less time on gaming as a result of the restriction of gaming time for minors(age under 18)to three hours per week since September 2021?Tencent has reported that total gaming time spent from the minor group fell to 0.7%in September 2021 from 6.4%in September 2020.Chinas percentage of population in the 20-39 age group will shrink,according to United Nations forecasts,because of falling birth rates.New forms of online/offline entertainment could arise.However,we think quality content and technological enablers in video gaming will keep driving better user experience and therefore sustainable growth in entertainment spending.Exhibit 9:Chinas population aged 20-39 represented 29%of total in 2020.Aged 0-912%Aged 10-1912%Aged 20-2913%Aged 30-3916%Aged 40-4915%Aged 50-5915%Aged 60-6910%Aged 70-795%Aged 80+2%China population age demographics 2020ESource:the United Nations,Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 10:.which is expected to fall to 24%of total by 2030Aged 0-910%Aged 10-1912%Aged 20-2911%Aged 30-3913%Aged 40-4915%Aged 50-5914%Aged 60-6914%Aged 70-798%Aged 80+3%China population age demographics 2030ESource:the United Nations,Morgan Stanley