彭博世界经济图表：中国经济增长蓄势待发.pdf

By Vince Golle and Molly Smith作者：文斯戈尔和莫莉史密斯2023年10月21日 at GMT+8 下午5:00BookmarkSaveListen3:57World Economy Latest:Chinas EconomyGains M the Global Economy:Chinas EconomyGains Momentum 绘制全球经济图：中国经济蓄势待发The Wangfujing shopping area in Beijing,Source:Bloomberg 北京王府井购物区，来源：彭博社Economic growth in China exceeded forecast,helped by stronger retailsales at the end of the third quarter and bolstered by governmentstimulus efforts.得益于第三季度末零售销售的强劲增长以及政府刺激措施的推动，中国的经济增长超出了预期。Household demand was also robust in the US and likely contributed tothe strongest pace of economic growth in nearly two years.Meanwhile,persistent industrial woes are projected to leave the German economy Europes largest in another recession this year.美国的家庭需求也很强劲，可能推动了近两年来最强劲的经济增长。与此同时，持续的工业困境预计将使欧洲最大的经济体德国今年再次陷入衰退。Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week onthe latest developments in the global economy:以下是本周彭博社出现的一些有关全球经济最新发展的图表：Asia 亚洲免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023Chinas Economy Shows More Signs ofStabilization 中国经济呈现更多企稳迹象Third-quarter GDP growth beats forecast,though propertyremains a drag 第三季度GDP增长超出预期，但房地产仍是拖累Source:National Bureau of Statistics,Bloomberg 资料来源：国家统计局、彭博社Chinas economy gained momentum last quarter as people ramped upspending on everything from restaurants and alcohol to cars,offsettinga drag from the property crisis and putting Beijings annual growthgoal well within reach.上个季度，中国经济增长势头强劲，人们增加了从餐馆、酒类到汽车等各方面的支出，抵消了房地产危机的拖累，使北京的年度增长目标触手可及。GDP growth(YoY)GDP growth(QoQ)-20-1001020%Q32019Q22020Q12021Q4Q32022Q32023Official 2023 GDP growth target免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023PBOC Raises Policy Loan Net Injection InOctober央行10月加大政策性贷款净投放力度Source:PBOC,Bloomberg 资料来源：中国人民银行、彭博社Chinas central bank stepped up efforts to support the nationseconomic recovery and debt sales by delivering the largest cashinjection since 2020 with one-year policy loans.The injection of extracash into the economy will offer a much-needed boost to Chinasgrowth,which has been challenged by a lack of demand and adownturn in the property market this year.中国央行加大力度支持国家经济复苏和发债，提供了2020年以来最大规模的一年期政策性贷款现金注入。向经济注入额外现金将为中国经济增长提供急需的推动力，而今年中国的经济增长受到需求不足和房地产市场低迷的挑战。MLF OperationsExpiring Loans-1.0-0.500.51.0Jan2023MarMayJulSepNov1.0 trillion yuan免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023China-Dependent 依赖中国South Korea relies heavily on China for key batterymaterials 韩国关键电池材料严重依赖中国Source:Korea International Trade Association 资料来源：韩国国际贸易协会*As of first half of 2023*截至 2023 年上半年South Koreas trade minister said his country is prepared to look foralternative sources of graphite if Chinas newly strengthened exportcontrols on the key material used in electric-vehicle batteries cause asevere shortage.韩国贸易部长表示，如果中国新近加强的对电动汽车电池关键材料的出口管制导致石墨严重短缺，韩国准备寻找石墨的替代来源。Europe 欧洲96%CathodeMaterials97%Precursor93%AnodeMaterials82%LithiumHydroxide58Ele免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023UK Inflation Failed to Decrease in September英国九月通胀未能下降Source:Office for National Statistics 资料来源：国家统计局Note:Core CPI excludes energy,food,alcohol and tobacco 注：核心CPI不包括能源、食品、烟酒UK inflation failed to slow as forecast in September as rising oil pricesoffset downward pressures from food costs.The miss firms up the casefor the Bank of England to leave interest rates at their highest level in15 years for the foreseeable future.由于油价上涨抵消了食品成本的下行压力，英国 9 月份通胀未能如预期放缓。此次失误强化了英国央行在可预见的未来将利率维持在 15 年来最高水平的理由。CPICore CPI inflationGoodsServices-5051015%201820192020202120222023免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023Germany Is Likely in Recession德国可能陷入衰退Source:Destatis,Bloomberg survey of economistsconducted Oct.6-13 资料来源：Destatis、彭博社 10 月 6 日至 13 日对经济学家进行的调查Germany wont escape a second recession this year as the economylong seen as Europes motor limps through persisting industrialweakness,according to forecasters.The collective outlook suggests thatGermany will have suffered five consecutive quarters without anyexpansion at all.预测人士称，德国今年将无法逃脱第二次衰退，因为长期被视为欧洲引擎的德国经济因持续的工业疲软而陷入困境。总体前景表明，德国将连续五个季度遭受损失，而根本没有任何扩张。GDP(QoQ)New forecastPrior forecast-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.4%Q22022Q4Q22023Q4Q22024Q12025免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023EU Faces Extra Fiscal Pressures by 2030到 2030 年欧盟将面临额外财政压力Source:European Commission,Scope Ratings 资料来源：欧盟委员会，范围评级Note:Shows change by 2030 compared with 2020 注：显示 2030 年与 2020 年相比的变化Extra pension and healthcare spending coupled with increasedborrowing costs will hamper the European Unions ability to hit itsclimate goals and strengthen its armed forces,according to a study byScope Ratings.Rising social,green and military expenditure,andhigher interest rates are expected to worsen EU member states deficitsby an estimated 4.5%of economic output on average by 2030.范围评级公司的一项研究显示，额外的养老金和医疗支出加上借贷成本的增加将阻碍欧盟实现其气候目标和加强武装部队的能力。预计到2030 年，社会、绿色和军事支出的增加以及利率的上升将导致欧盟成员国的赤字平均占经济产出的 4.5%。USInterestAgeingDefenseGreenGermanyFranceItalySpain0246%of GDP免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023US retail sales exceeded all forecasts and industrial productionstrengthened last month,fresh evidence of a resilient Americanconsumer.The reports prompted a slew of economists to boost theirtracking forecasts for third-quarter GDP.The government issues itsfirst estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday.上个月美国零售额超出了所有预期，工业生产也有所增强，这是美国消费者坚韧的新证据。这些报告促使许多经济学家提高了对第三季度 GDP的跟踪预测。政府周四发布了对第三季度国内生产总值的首次估计。免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023Top Five Recipients of US Foreign Aid in 21stCentury21世纪美国对外援助前五名受援国Annual economic and military assistance 年度经济和军事援助Source:US Agency for International Development,StateDepartment 资料来源：美国国际开发署、国务院Note:Numbers are in 2021 dollars,based on obligationsincluding economic and military aid.2023 data isincomplete 注：数字以 2021 年美元计算，基于经济和军事援助等义务。2023年数据不完整President Joe Biden unveiled a nearly$106 billion request foremergency funds to arm Israel and Ukraine and to reinforce the US-Mexico border.The bulk of the supplemental request and perhapsthe biggest hurdle is a$61.4 billion ask for a years worth ofassistance for Ukraine in its effort to turn back Russias invasion.TheWhite House is also asking for$14.3 billion to boost Israels defensesAfghanistan(Total since 2000:$144 billion)Iraq($91b)Israel($84b)Egypt($44b)Ukraine($32b)010203020002005201020152020$30 bln免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023following the Oct.7 attack by Hamas.乔拜登总统公布了一项近 1060 亿美元的紧急资金请求，以武装以色列和乌克兰并加固美墨边境。补充请求的大部分 或许也是最大的障碍 是要求向乌克兰提供 614 亿美元一年的援助，以阻止俄罗斯的入侵。在 10 月 7 日哈马斯发动袭击后，白宫还要求提供 143 亿美元来加强以色列的防御。Family Median Net Worth 家庭净资产中位数Real median net worth among all ages surged 37%to$192,900 所有年龄段的实际净资产中位数飙升 37%至 192,900 美元Source:Federal Reserve 资料来源：美联储Note:Thousands of 2022 dollars 注：2022年数千美元Americans experienced a record surge in net worth during thepandemic,laying the groundwork for economic resilience in 2023.Inflation-adjusted median net worth jumped 37%from 2019 to 2022,the largest three-year increase in Federal Reserve data back to 1989.美国人在疫情期间经历了创纪录的净资产激增，为 2023 年的经济弹性Family agegroup2019median2022median%ChgAll families?K?KLess than35?3544?4554?5564?6574?75 or more?37%1432827483314免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023奠定了基础。从 2019 年到 2022 年，经通胀调整后的净资产中位数跃升了 37%，这是自 1989 年以来美联储数据中最大的三年增幅。Emerging Markets 新兴市场Argentina Has More Recessions Than Peers inLatin America 阿根廷的经济衰退程度超过拉丁美洲其他国家Number of years since 1980 when GDP contracted 自 1980 年以来 GDP 收缩的年数Source:International Monetary Fund,Bloomberg 资料来源：国际货币基金组织、彭博社Note:Includes forecast for 2023,2024 from Bloombergsurveys 注：包括彭博社调查对 2023 年、2024 年的预测Argentinas next president will take over in the middle of a financialemergency which is par for the course in one of the worlds mostdysfunctional economies.If the economy contracts this year asexpected,it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of theyears since 1980.ArgentinaVenezuelaMexicoBrazilChileEcuador2018.09.08.06.05.0免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023阿根廷的下一任总统将在金融紧急情况下接任这对于世界上功能最失调的经济体之一来说是正常的。如果今年经济如预期收缩，则意味着自1980年以来经济已近一半时间出现萎缩。Across the Americas,governments have deployed troops and erectedbarriers to try to stem whats become an exodus of 7.7 millionVenezuelans from the once-wealthy petro state.In Brazil,theyrewelcoming the newcomers with open arms.在整个美洲，各国政府部署了军队并设置了障碍，试图阻止 770 万委内瑞拉人逃离这个曾经富裕的石油国家。在巴西，他们张开双臂欢迎新来者。World 世界免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023Central Banks Are Diverging on Rates各国央行在利率上存在分歧Change in borrowing costs since start of 2023 自 2023 年初以来借贷成本的变化Source:Bloomberg 资料来源：彭博社Note:Mapped data show change in interest rates fordistinct central banks.注：映射数据显示不同央行的利率变化。Bank Indonesia increased its seven-day reverse repurchase rate to afresh four-year high,which was predicted by just one of the 31economists surveyed by Bloomberg.Bank of Korea Governor RheeChang-yong warned of the risk of market jitters stemming from theIsrael-Hamas conflict after the central bank stood pat on interest rates.Tunisia also held.印度尼西亚央行将 7 天逆回购利率提高至四年来新高，彭博社调查的 31名经济学家中只有一位预测到了这一点。韩国央行行长李昌镛警告称，-1000100 250 500750+bps免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023在韩国央行坚持利率不变后，以色列与哈马斯冲突可能引发市场不安。突尼斯也举办了。With assistance by Maria Eloisa Capurro,Philip Glamann,Jie Hou,Harumi Ichikura,Sam Kim,Kamil Kowalcze,Denise Lu,Iris Ouyang,Tom Rees,Andrew Rosati,Augusta Saraiva,Zoe Schneeweiss,JustinSink,Alexandre Tanzi,Fran Wang,and Lucy White 在 Maria Eloisa Capurro、Philip Glamann、Jie Hou、HarumiIchikura、Sam Kim、Kamil Kowalcze、Denise Lu、Iris Ouyang、Tom Rees、Andrew Rosati、Augusta Saraiva、Zoe Schneeweiss、Justin Sink、Alexandre Tanzi、Fran Wang 的协助下，和露西怀特Get Alerts for:获取以下警报：Vince GolleMolly Smith免费入群V：qxcaijing2023免费入群v：qxcaijing2023