全球能源转型展望2023.pdf

ERC FORUM2023Global Outlookon Energy Markets and TransitionAugust 28,2023ERC Forum 2023,Bangkok,ThailandJie Tang,Practice Manager,Energy,World BankJoonkyung Seong,Senior Energy Specialist,World BankERC FORUM2023I.ContextII.ChallengesIII.World Bank EngagementIV.Going ForwardERC FORUM2023I.ContextERC FORUM2023Global GHG emissions continue to growI.ContextERC FORUM2023Energy and coal use contribute significantlyI.ContextERC FORUM2023Coal use is led by Asia mainly for power generationI.ContextSource:BP Statistical Review of Global Energy 2021Coal consumption by country in 2020OECD18.1%Rest of Non-OECD8.2%China54.3%India11.6%Indonesia2.2%Vietnam1.4%Philippines0.5%Thailand0.5%Pakistan0.4%Rest of Asia2.9%Asia73.7%Coal consumption by sector in 2018(selected countries)Source:IEA World Energy Balances58%73%61%83%56%69%24%25%27%32%14%43%23%70%0%20%40%60%80%100%OthersCommercial/publicHeat plantsResidentialIndustryElectricity(incl.CHP)ERC FORUM20237Electricity Consumption per capita(MWh per person)in 2019OECD EAP countries Advanced economiesElectricity demand growth forecast 2020-30(%)OECD EAP countries Advanced economiesDeveloping countries expect higher demand growthI.ContextERC FORUM2023Electricity demand grows fast in developing countriesI.Context0.51.01.52.02.53.0201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Annual electricity generation growth for selected countries/economies 2010-2021(2010 level=1)VietnamChinaIndonesiaPhilippinesThailandUS/EU/OECDERC FORUM20239Many Asian countries are committed to net zeroI.ContextSource:ADB,Asia in the Global Transition to Net Zero(2023)21234118203020402050206020652070n.a.Number of developing Asian countries by net zero target yearERC FORUM202310Governments take initiatives for energy transitionI.ContextERC FORUM202311WBGs Country Climate and Development Reports(CCDRs)provide diagnosis on intertwined challengesI.ContextERC FORUM202312Feasible pathways for transition in the power sectorProjected annual carbon emissions from the power sectorSource:World BankI.ContextERC FORUM202313RE capacity will need to increase fivefold by 2040 Projected renewable energy installed capacitySource:World BankI.ContextERC FORUM202314CCDRs shows that scaling up RE and phasing down coal are necessary across many countriesEvolution of the share of renewable energy and coal capacity in selected countriesSource:World BankI.ContextERC FORUM202315Investment in clean energy continues to increaseI.ContextIncrease in annual clean energy investment in selected countries/regions,2019-2023(US$b)Source:IEA,World Energy Investment 2023Annual clean energy investment,2015-2023(US$b)ERC FORUM202316Solar PV energy auction prices continue to declineI.Context0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00PPA tariffs estimates based on auctions($cents/kWh)Poland 5.73$c/kWhPhilippines 6.7$c/kWhLatin AmericaMENAAsia(South&East)Sub-Saharan AfricaMexico 3.6$c/kWhUAE 2.4$c/kWhIndia 6.5$c/kWhZambia6$c/kWhTurkey 7$c/kWhArgentina 4.1$c/kWhArgentina 5.9$c/kWhPeru 4.9$c/kWhChile 2.9$c/kWhIsrael 5.5$c/kWhIndia 3.7$c/kWhEl Salvador 5.1$c/kWhBrazil 3.5$c/kWhEgypt 2.8$c/kWhPhilippines4.5$c/kWhZambiaand Senegal3.9$c/kWhUzbekistan 2.7$c/kWhEthiopia2.56$c/kWhRecent increase in 2022 reflecting polycrisisEurope&Central AsiaArmenia 4.2$c/kWhDubai 1.69$c/kWhTunisia 2.44$c/kWhIndia 3.7$c/kWhSaudi Arabia 1.61$c/kWhQatar 1.57$c/kWhMalaysia 4.1$c/kWhTunisia 3.9$c/kWhIndia 2.7$c/kWhSaudi Arabia 1.7$c/kWhIndia 3.1$c/kWhBrazil 3.5$c/kWhSource:PV magazine,GTM,IEA,Scaling Solar,EPE,WB own data,computed data from internet by the WB teamERC FORUM202317PV+battery storage PPA prices follow the trendI.ContextSource:PV magazine,GTM,IEA,Scaling Solar,WB own data,computed data from internet by the WB team0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.0011.0012.0013.0014.00PPA tariffs estimates based on auctions($cents/kWh)Hawaii:$c 11/kWh28 MW PV+100 MWh battery*Hawaii:$c 8/kWh30 MW PV+120 MWh batteryArizona:$c 4/kWh100 MW PV+120 MWh batteryCalifornia:$c 3.2/kWh400 MW PV+300 MWh batteryChile:$c 3.8/kWh126 GW PV+batteryLatin AmericaMENAAsia(South&East)Sub-Saharan AfricaHawaii:$c 13.9/kWh13 MW PV+52 MWh batteryAustralia:$c 6.8/kWh170 MW PV+100 MWh batteryCalifornia:$c 4.6/kWh100 MW PV+120 MWh batteryArizona:$c 6.7/kWh20 MW PV+400 MWh batteryEurope&Central AsiaHawaii:$c 8.7/kWh20 MW PV+100 MWh batteryIndia:$c 3.8/kWh400 MW PV+batteryPortugal:$c 1.3/kWh700 MW PV+storageUnited StatesAustraliaERC FORUM202318I.ContextSource:wind magazine,tender watch,IEA,WB own data,computed data from internet by the WB teamOnshore wind auction prices keep going down 01234567891011121314151620152016201720182019202020212022PPA Price($c/kWh)EuropeAsiaAfricaNorth AmericaLatin AmericaGermany 6.2$c/kWh189 MWSpain 4.2$c/kWh45.5 MWFrance 6.7$c/kWh294 MWIndia 3.6$c/kWh,1.1 GWTurkey 3.5$c/kWh,1 850 MWSA 2.2$c/kWh,1.6 GWSpain 3.5$c/kWh,2.2 GWChile 3.7$c/kWh,777 GWPhilippines8.5$c/kWh,374 MWItaly 6.9$c/kWh,830 MWMorocco 3$c/kWh,850 MWGermany 6.3$c/kWh,807 MWTurkey 3.48$c/kWh,1 GWCanada 2.88$c/kWh,596 MWGermany 7.2$c/kWh,670 MWKazakhastan 5.8$c/kWh,100 MWPoland 5.1$c/kWh,1 GWIndia 4.0$c/kWh,1.2 GWCanada 3.2016$c/kWh,596 MWSaudi Arabia 2.13$c/kWh,400 MWGermany 6.88$c/kWh,270 MWTurkey 4.3$c/kWh,1 GWIndia 4$c/kWh,1.2 GWBrazil2.229$/kWh,1.2GWTunisia 3.5$c/kWh,120MWArgentina 5.94$c/kWh,708 MWGreece 6.54$c/kWh,748 MWFrance 7.17$c/kWh,519 MWERC FORUM202319I.ContextSource:wind magazine,tender watch,IEA,WB own data,computed data from internet by the WB teamOffshore wind auction prices are plummeting01234567891011121314151620152016201720182019202020212022PPA Price($c/kWh)EuropeAsiaAfricaNorth AmericaLatin AmericaDenmark:$c 7.15/kWh,350MWDenmark:$c 5.55/kWh,600MWItaly:$c 6.9/kWh,8300MWGermany 6$c/kWh,1.6 GWUK 4.6$c/kWh,7 GWFrance 5.3$c/kWh,600 MWPoland 7$c/kWh,5.9 GWDenmark 6.5$c/kWh,110 MWUK 6.9$c/kWh,950 MWNetherlands:$c 5.9/kWh,700MWDenmark:$c 5.4/kWh,605 MWDenmark:$c 6.9/kWh,350 MWNetherlands:$c 7.8/kWh,752MWNetherlands:$c 8.04/kWh,700MWUK 8.3$c/kWh,3196 MWGermany 5.6$c/kWh,1.6GWTaiwan 8.1$c/kWh,3.8 GWUK 5.94$c/kWh,5.7 GWChina 2.9$c/kWh,800 MWERC FORUM202320China becomes the largest investor in clean energyI.ContextERC FORUM202321Chinas growing investment leads to cost reductionI.Context403.9 261.7 195.5 100200300400500Onshore wind turbine bid price in China(US$/kW)993.0 894.4 443.8 464.1 30050070090011002017-Q12017-Q32018-Q12018-Q32019-Q12019-Q32020-Q12020-Q32021-Q32022-Q12022-Q32023-Q1Offshore wind turbine bid price in China(US$/kW)Source:World Bank Staff2 5 9 16 31 47 61 77 97 131 147 163 184 210 282 328 365 20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Wind power installed capacity in China(GW)ERC FORUM202322Falling green hydrogen cost will facilitate clean energy transitionI.ContextERC FORUM202323CCUS applications are growing on commercial basisPipeline of commercial CCUS facilities since 2010Commercial CCUS Facilities by number and total CO2capture capacity(Mtpa)(as of mid-September 2022)Source:Global Status of CCS(2022)I.ContextERC FORUM202324In China,SOEs lead CCUS demonstration at scaleCCUS demonstration projects in ChinaCost of CCUS demonstration projects in operation in ChinaSource:CCUS Progress in China Status Report(2023)I.ContextERC FORUM202325However,clean energy growth remains slow in many developing countriesI.Context65 155 185 225 -50 100 150 200 2502018201920202021144 154 154 154 2018201920202021Indonesia917 980 1,056 1,375 -500 1,000 1,5002018201920202021427 443 443 443 2018201920202021Philippines105 4,994 16,661 16,661 -6,000 12,000 18,0002018201920202021237 375 518 4,118 2018201920202021Vietnam2,967 2,988 2,988 3,065 -500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,50020182019202020211,103 1,507 1,507 1,545 2018201920202021ThailandNote:Solar PV and wind power installed capacity;solar,wind;units in MWERC FORUM2023II.ChallengesERC FORUM202327Four key challenges to clean energy transitionII.ChallengesEnergy SecurityFinancingAffordabilityJust TransitionERC FORUM202328Meeting fast growing electricity demand is becoming a priority amid volatile market conditionsII.Challenges Energy SecurityNatural gas and coal market price trendSource:World Bank,Commodity Markets Outlook,April 2023 ERC FORUM202329High RE share poses threat to reliable power supplyII.Challenges Energy SecuritySource:US Energy Information AdministrationCalifornias hourly load net of solar/wind in Spring(GW)Californias battery storage capacitySource:CAISOERC FORUM202330Growing battery storage demand brings risks and opportunitiesII.Challenges Energy SecurityERC FORUM202331Power sector resilience constitutes an important part of energy security due to climate risks on the riseII.Challenges Energy SecurityERC FORUM202332Clean energy transition requires higher upfront capital investmentII.Challenges Financing Capital investment needed in the power sector between 2020 and 2040(undiscounted terms)Source:World BankERC FORUM202333Electricity cost is projected to increase by 16 percentTotal system cost composition in Indonesia,the Philippines,and Vietnam combinedSource:World BankII.Challenges AffordabilityERC FORUM202334Concessional climate finance catalyzes large financingSource:World BankII.Challenges Financing US$12.8 billion committed to 226 projectsUS$7.5 billion committed to 398 projectsIndonesiaInvestment plan approvedUS$500 million mobilizing US$5 billionPhilippinesInvestment plan in developmentUp to US$500 million concessional fundERC FORUM202335Carbon revenue has a potential to fill financing gapSource:World BankEvolution of global revenues from carbon taxes and ETSs over time(nominal)II.Challenges Financing ERC FORUM202336ETS/carbon tax is at the early stage in AsiaSource:World BankII.Challenges Financing ERC FORUM202337Carbon crediting mechanism is emerging in AsiaSource:World BankII.Challenges Financing ERC FORUM202338International supports formed for energy transitionI.ContextSouth AfricaNovember 2021US$8.5 billionIndonesiaNovember 2022US$20 billionVietnamDecember 2022US$15.5 billion Peak power sector emissions by 2030 Limit CFPP capacity to 30.2 GW Increase the share of renewable energy in electricity generation to 47%by 2030 Peak power sector emissions by 2030 Reach net zero power sector emissions by 2050 Increase the share of renewable energy in electricity generation to 34%by 2030ERC FORUM202339New sustainability-linked instruments are growingSource:World Bank,IFC based on BloombergNEF,Bloomberg L.P.Global sustainable debt annual issuance,2013-Q1 2023II.Challenges Financing ERC FORUM202340Energy transition may bring adverse economic,social,and environmental impactsII.Challenges Just TransitionERC FORUM202341Impacts on employment and economy across coal value chain should be carefully managedCoal mining employment in PolandCoal mining employment in ChinaSource:World BankSource:Columbia Political Review using data from Chinese Statistical YearbookII.Challenges Just TransitionERC FORUM202342Impacts of the transition can be disproportionateII.Challenges Just TransitionDistribution of jobs lost and gained,holding job characteristics fixed in ChinaWelfare impacts by income groups in 2060 in China(%relative to baseline)Source:World BankERC FORUM202343Govt has a critical role in mobilizing private capitalSource:World BankII.Challenges Financing ERC FORUM2023III.World Bank EngagementERC FORUM202345WBG engagement under a comprehensive frameworkIII.World Bank EngagementCross-Pillar:Mobilize grant resource for technical assistanceCross-Pillar:Mobilize concessional finance to de-risk and reduce costERC FORUM202346Active work programs in East Asia and Pacific regionIII.World Bank EngagementChina Energy storage Renewable energy integration Provincial power interconnection Heating sector decarbonizationMongolia Grid network for renewable energy Power system planning Electricity and heat tariff reformThailand Regulatory arrangement RE development Regional power interconnection Carbon crediting mechanismIndonesia RE electrification Green financing Pumped storage Coal power transition Sector financial sustainabilityVietnam Grid network for renewable energy Coal power transition Offshore wind Industrial energy efficiencyPhilippines Coal power transition Grid network for renewable energy Offshore wind Energy efficiencyLao PDR Grid network strengthening Regional power interconnection Sector financial sustainabilityCambodia Grid network strengthening Regional power interconnection Energy access to clean cookingPacific Islands Power sector resilience RE electrification HydropowerERC FORUM2023IV.Going ForwardERC FORUM202348Some takeaway messagesIV.Going Forward Energy transition becomes a core part of sustainable energy sector development across Asian countries Aligning climate actions and energy transition plans with domestic development objectives is important,as highlighted in CCDRs Technology innovation is driving down cost of clean energy,but it remains a challenge for developing countries to manage the cost and financing for accelerating the transition About US$12 trillion will be needed by 2040 for energy transition in the power sector in the six major Asia coal-consumption countries ERC FORUM202349Some takeaway messagesIV.Going Forward Governments have a critical role to create an enabling environment for private sector participation and de-risking transition process Governments can lead the effort to tap concessional climate finance and unlock potential of carbon pricing to fill the financing gap Governments also need to consider strategically positioning themselves to benefit from global energy transitionERC FORUM2023THANK YOU