中国经济空间问题研究.ppt

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,第七章中国经济问题研究,第一节改革开放以来经济发展总体态势,一、经济总体特征,二、中国经济波动问题,三、中国经济波动原因,第二节中国经济空间问题研究,一、中国经济空间特征,二、各区域经济总体态势及问题,三、各层次区域单元空间经济问题的解决方法,1,第一节改革开放以来经济发展总体态势,一、经济总体特征,1,、经济发展速度快,后发优势，但经济波动明显。,2,、中国经济发展的“四高一低”特征突出,高储蓄、低消费、高投资、高外汇储备,3,、外向型经济特征明显,4,、工业仍然是中国经济的主导；以金融业为主要特征的第三产业发展迅速，但潜在风险巨大,5,、经济发展的人口与资源红利逐步消失,6,、经济发展潜力巨大，但目前启动难度大,7,、城市化成为中国经济进一步发展的巨大引擎,8,、中国经济发展空间不均衡特征明显。,2,二、中国经济波动问题研究,1,、基本理论,1,）西方,20,世纪,30,年代前,纯货币理论,投资过度理论,气候与农业收成理论,心理理论,2,）当代（凯恩斯理论建立后）理论,凯恩斯理论,资本边际效率的波动,萨缪尔森线性乘数一加速数动态周期模型,卡尔多非线性经济周期模型,货币主义经济周期理论,实际经济周期理论和新凯恩斯主义的周期理论,3,3,、经济周期,基钦周期,1923,年英国经济学家基钦提出的一种为期,3-4,年的经济周,朱格拉周期,是,1860,年法国经济学家朱格拉提出的一种为期,9,10,年的经济周期,康德拉季耶夫周期,是,1926,年俄国经济学家康德拉季耶夫提出的一种为期,50-60,年的经济周期,库兹涅茨周期,是,1930,年美国经济学家库涅茨提出的一种为期,15-25,年，平均长度为,20,年左右的经济周期,熊彼特周期,1936,年，伟大的经济学家熊彼特 提出他认为，每一个长周期包括,6,个中周期，每一个中周期包括三个短周期。短周期约为,40,个月，中周期约为,9,10,年，长周期为,48,60,年。,4,4,、研究经济周期的方法,1,）加法模型,Y=T+C+S+I,Y,：原始数据；,T:,长期趋势要素；,C:,循环要素；,S:,季节要素；,I,：不规则要素,这些要素都为绝对量,2,）乘数法,Y=T*C*S*I,T,：绝对量其他三个为相对量,5,、经济周期的划分方法,1,）增长率法：,2,）,BN,法,将一个,ARMA,（,p,1,q),分解为长期趋势和不规则部分,3,）,HP,滤波法,5,6,、中国经济波动问题研究,1,、数据资料,中国统计年鉴,年 份,国内生产,总 值,第一产业,第二产业,第三产业,工 业,建筑业,1978,3645.217474,1027.534543,1745.2,1607,138.2,872.4829315,1979,4062.579191,1270.191708,1913.5,1769.7,143.8,878.8874827,1980,4545.623973,1371.593143,2192,1996.5,195.5,982.03083,1981,4891.561062,1559.463265,2255.5,2048.4,207.1,1076.597797,1982,5323.350965,1777.400678,2383,2162.3,220.7,1162.950287,1983,5962.651568,1978.387403,2646.2,2375.6,270.6,1338.064166,1984,7208.051718,2316.089496,3105.7,2789,316.7,1786.262223,1985,9016.036581,2564.396891,3866.6,3448.7,417.9,2585.03969,1986,10275.17922,2788.690811,4492.7,3967,525.7,2993.788405,1987,12058.61513,3233.040981,5251.6,4585.8,665.8,3573.974144,1988,15042.82301,3865.362169,6587.2,5777.2,810,4590.260841,1989,16992.31911,4265.923062,7278,6484,794,5448.396046,1990,18667.82238,5062,7717.4,6858,859.4,5888.422376,1991,21781.49941,5342.2,9102.2,8087.1,1015.1,7337.099411,1992,26923.47645,5866.6,11699.5,10284.5,1415,9357.376451,1993,35333.92471,6963.762895,16454.43131,14187.97131,2266.460004,11915.73051,1994,48197.85644,9572.69475,22445.39906,19480.70948,2964.689582,16179.76263,1995,60793.72921,12135.8114,28679.4575,24950.6109,3728.846604,19978.4603,1996,71176.59165,14015.38999,33834.95901,29447.60708,4387.351936,23326.24265,6,1997,78973.035,14441.88567,37543.00219,32921.38856,4621.613632,26988.14714,1998,84402.2797714817.62552,39004.18854,34018.43055,4985.757995,30580.46571,1999,89677.05475,14770.02847,41033.58159,35861.4793,5172.102287,33873.44469,2000,99214.55431,14944.7225,45555.87796,40033.59287,5522.285085,38713.95385,2001,109655.1706,15781.26905,49512.29097,43580.61611,5931.674861,44361.61054,2002,120332.6893,16537.01966,53896.76779,47431.30828,6465.459517,49898.90182,2003,135822.7561,17381.7177,62436.31214,54945.52737,7490.78477,56004.72631,2004,159878.3379,21412.73404,73904.31187,65210.02912,8694.282746,64561.29201,2005,184937.369,22420,87598.09379,77230.77911,10367.31468,74919.27517,2006,2163144259,24040,103719.5416,91310.93629,12408.60529,88554.88436,2007,265810.3058,28627,125831.358,110534.8765,15296.48158,111351.9478,2008,314045.4271,33702,149003.44,130260.24,18743.2,131339.9871,2009,340902.8126,35226,157638.7766,135239.9499,22398.82672,148038.036,2010,401512.7952,40533.6,187383.2113,160722.2317,26660.97956,173595.984,2011,472881.5578,47486.21059,220412.8143,188470.1531,31942.6612,204982.5329,7,修正后的,GDP,数值,GDP,第一产业,第二产业,第三产业,1978,年,15279.31041,6673.401381,4857.467097,4975.503612,1979,年,16436.39025,7082.755131,5255.701292,5366.518161,1980,年,17725.24026,6977.718844,5968.837527,5688.427817,1981,年,18654.59402,7464.960034,6080.210523,6281.192642,1982,年,20344.11647,8325.601013,6418.374536,7096.201708,1983,年,22552.05923,9018.768646,7083.646162,8172.913821,1984,年,25974.56452,10180.45688,8109.464268,9754.306452,1985,年,29472.3494,10368.1687,9615.291898,11525.82612,1986,年,32079.5844410712.22271,10597.96308,12914.03904,1987,年,35795.44733,11216.16064,12049.31772,14767.9718,1988,年,39833.3827,11501.52308,13798.6558,16711.40507,1989,年,41451.89399,11855.19036,14318.57623,17607.17421,1990,年,43043.24254,12723.92673,14772.42793,18018.27652,1991,年,46994.15453,13029.28068,16819.0602,19616.97905,1992,年,53686.45408,13641.7639,20376.93096,22057.83742,1993,年,61183.39946,14283.15937,24425.02107,24745.86408,1994,年,69186.60527,14854.55675,28909.35088,27490.43302,1995,年,76745.22829,15597.39872,32920.68889,30195.38605,1996,年,84426.29246,16392.99286,36906.18559,33041.75822,1997,年,92275.4333716966.67279,40773.57789,36582.84628,1998,年,99503.68813,17560.38841,44406.67559,39645.65779,1999,年,107085.7057,18052.07929,48019.48308,43344.52017,2000,年,116114.4008,18485.32684,52416.18105,45488.38539,2001,年,125752.2648,19002.92913,56840.90121,50154.32107,8,2002,年,137173.171,19554.01888,62427.9593255391.59022,2003,年,150925.301,20042.85987,70338.77219,60655.45366,2004,年,166146.1777,21305.56541,78155.13647,66755.2306,2005,年,184937.369,22420,87598.09379,74919.27517,2006,年,208381.0178,23541,99328.46404,85511.55377,2007,年,237892.7606,24422.37504,114290.6381,99179.74756,2008,年,260812.9388,25735.92772,125579.6526,109497.3585,2009,年,284844.7619,26812.60283,138062.7461,119969.413,2010,年,314602.4633,27957.84741,154975.7652,131668.8507,9,GDP,轨迹与趋势线,Y=3.18-0.21X,1,+0.49X,2,+0.48X,3,10,11,第二产业波动图,12,13,14,中国固定资产投资趋势图,（原始数据）,15,中国固定资产投资趋势图,（对数）,16,17,一、中国经济空间总体特征,1,、概述,数据收集与处理,数据分析,结论,2,、中国经济空间格局演变,3,、中国经济空间特征,第二节中国经济空间问题研究,18,省份,1978,1979,1980,1981,1982,1983,1984,1985,1986,1987,1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,上海,273,286,312,325,337,352,391,467,491,545,648.3,696.5,756.5,893.8,1114,1512,北京,109,120,139,139,155,183,217,257,285,327,410.2,456,500.8,598.9,709.1,863.5,天津,82.7,93,104,108,114,123,147,176195,220,259.6,283.3,311,342.8,411.2,536.1,江苏,249,299,320,350,390,438,519,652,745,922,1209,1322,1417,1610,2136,2998,浙江,124,158,180,204,233,256,322,428,500,604,765.8,843.7,898,1082,1365,1909,内蒙古,58,64.1,68.4,78.4,93.7,105,128,164,182,212,270.8,292.7,319.3,359.7,421.7,532.7,广东,185,207,246,284,331,357,442,553,638,808,1099,1312,1472,1781,2294,3225,辽宁,229,245,281,289,315,364,438,519,605,719,881,1004,1063,1200,1473,2011,山东,225,252,292,347,395,460,582,680,742,892,1118,1294,1511,1811,2197,2779,福建,66.4,74.1,87.1,106,118,128,157,200,223,279,383.2,458.4,523.3,622,787.7,1133,吉林,88,91.1,98.6,111,122,150,173,200,227,297,368.7,391.7,425.4,463.5,558.1,718,河北,183,203,219,223,251,283,332,397,437,522,701.3,822.8,896.3,1072,1279,1691,湖北,151,188,199,220,242,263,328,396,442,518,626.5,717.1,824.4,913.4,1088,1424,重庆,71.7,81,90.7,97.2,108,120,142,164,185,207,261.3,303.8,327.8,374.2,461.3,608.5,陕西,81.1,94.5,94.9,103,112,124,149,181,206,239,301.5,336.3,374.1,427.9,540.5,671.4,黑龙江,175,187,221,228,248,277,318,355,401,455,552,630.6,715.2,824.2,864,1203,宁夏,13,14.4,16,17.4,18.2,20.3,24.8,30.3,34.5,39.6,50.29,59.21,64.84,71.78,83.14,103.8,山西,88,106,109,122,139,155,197,219,235,257,316.7,376.3,429.3,468.5,570,704.7,新疆,39.1,45.6,53.2,59.4,65.2,78.6,89.8,112,129,149,192.7,217.4,274,335.9,402.3,505.6,河南,163,190,229,250,263,328,370,452,503,610,749.1,850.7,934.7,1046,1280,1663,湖南,147,178,192,210,233,257,287,350,398,469,584.1,640.8,744.4,833.3,997.7,1278,青海,15.5,15.2,17.8,17.5,20,22.5,26.4,33,38.4,43.4,54.96,60.37,69.94,75.1,87.52,109.6,海南,16.4,17.5,19.3,22.2,28.9,31.1,37.2,43.3,48,57.3,77.13,91.4,102.5,120.5,181.7,258.1,四川,245,291,322,333,379,421,498,606,655,747,922.6,995.7,1186,1383,1625,2096,江西,87,104,111,121,134,144,169,208,231,263,325.8,376.5,428.6,479.4,572.6,723.1,广西,75.9,84.6,97.3,113,129,135,150,181,205,242,313.3,383.4,449.1,518.6,646.6,893.6,安徽,114,127,141,171,188,216,266,331,383,441,546.9,616.3,658,663.6,801.2,1070,西藏,6.65,7.3,8.67,10.4,10.2,10.3,13.6,17.8,16.9,17.7,20.25,21.86,27.7,30.53,33.29,37.28,甘肃,64.7,67.5,73.9,70.9,76.9,91.5,103,123,141,160,191.8,216.8,242.8,271.4,317.8,372.2,云南,69.1,76.8,84.3,94.1,110,120,140,165,182,229,301.1,363.1,451.7,517.4,618.7,779.2,贵州,46.6,55.3,60.3,67.9,79.4,87.4,108,124,140,166,211.8,235.8,260.1,295.9,339.9,416.1,19,省份,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,上 海,1971.92,2462.57,2902.20,3360.21,3688.20,4034.96,4551.15,5210.12,5741.03,北 京,1084.03,1394.89,1615.73,1810.09,2011.31,2174.46,2478.76,3710.52,4330.40,天 津,725.14,920.11,1102.40,1235.28,1336.38,1450.06,1639.36,1919.09,2150.76,江 苏,4057.39,5155.25,6004.21,6680.34,7199.95,7697.82,8582.73,9456.84,10606.85,浙 江,2666.86,3524.79,4146.06,4638.24,4987.50,5364.89,6036.34,6898.34,8003.67,内蒙古,681.92,832.88,984.78,1099.77,1192.29,1268.20,1401.01,1713.81,1940.94,广 东,4240.56,5381.72,6519.14,7315.51,7919.12,8464.31,9662.23,12039.25,13502.42,辽 宁,2461.78,2793.37,3157.69,3582.46,3881.73,4171.69,4669.06,5033.08,5458.22,山 东,3872.18,5002.34,5960.42,6650.02,7162.20,7662.10,8542.44,9195.04,10275.50,福 建,1685.34,2160.52,2583.83,3000.36,3286.56,3550.24,3920.07,4072.85,4467.55,吉 林,936.78,1129.2,1337.16,1446.91,1557.78,1669.56,1821.19,2120.35,2348.54,河 北,2187.49,2849.52,3452.97,3953.78,4256.01,4569.19,5088.96,5516.76,6018.28,湖 北,1878.65,2391.42,2970.20,3450.24,3704.21,3857.99,4276.32,3880.53,4212.82,重 庆,833.6,1123.06,1179.09,1350.10,1429.26,1479.71,1589.34,1765.68,1990.01,陕 西,816.58,1000.03,1175.38,1300.03,1381.53,1487.61,1660.92,2010.62,2253.39,黑龙江,1618.63,2014.53,2402.58,2708.46,2798.89,2897.41,3253.00,3390.13,3637.20,宁 夏,133.97,169.75,193.62,210.92,227.46,241.49,265.57,337.44,377.16,山 西,853.77,1092.48,1308.01,1480.13,1486.08,1506.78,1643.81,2029.53,2324.80,新 疆,673.68,834.57,912.15,1050.14,1116.67,1168.55,1364.36,1491.60,1612.65,河 南,2224.43,3002.74,3661.18,4079.26,4356.60,4576.10,5137.66,5533.01,6035.48,湖 南,1694.42,2195.7,2647.16,2993.00,3118.09,3326.75,3691.88,3831.90,4151.54,青 海,138.24,16531,183.57,202.05,220.16,238.39,263.59,300.13,340.65,海 南,330.95,364.17,389.53,409.86,438.92,471.23,518.48,558.41,621.97,四 川,2777.88,3534,2985.15,3320.11,3580.26,3711.61,4010.25,4293.49,4725.01,江 西,948.16,1205.11,1517.26,1715.18,1851.98,1962.98,2003.07,2175.68,2450.48,广 西,1241.83,1606.15,1697.90,181725,1903.04,1953.27,2050.14,2279.34,2523.73,安 徽,1488.47,2003.58,2339.25,2669.95,2805.45,2908.59,3038.24,3246.71,3519.72,西 藏,45.84,55.98,64.76,76.98,91.18,105.61,117.46,146.04,166.56,甘 肃,451.66,553.35,714.18,781.34,869.75,931.98,983.36,1125.37,1232.03,云 南,973.97,1206.68,1491.62,1644.23,1793.90,1855.74,1955.09,2138.31,2312.82,贵 州,521.17,630.07,713.70,792.98,841.88,911.86,993.53,1133.27,1243.43,20,省份,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,上 海,6694.23,8072.83,9154.18,10572.24,12494.01,14069.86,15046.45,17165.98,19195.69,北 京,5023.77,6060.28,6886.31,8117.78,9846.81,11115.00,12153.03,14113.58,16251.93,天 津,2578.03,3110.97,3697.62,4462.74,5252.76,6719.01,7521.85,9224.46,11307.28,江 苏,12442.87,15003.60,18305.66,21742.05,26018.48,30981.98,34457.30,41425.48,49110.27,浙 江,9705.02,11648.70,13437.85,15718.47,18753.73,21462.69,22990.35,27722.31,32318.85,内蒙古,2388.38,3041.07,3895.55,4944.25,6423.18,8496.20,9740.25,11672.00,14359.88,广 东,15844.64,18864.62,22366.54,26587.76,31777.01,36796.71,39482.56,46013.06,53210.28,辽 宁,6002.54,6672.00,8009.01,9304.52,11164.30,13668.58,15212.49,18457.27,22226.70,山 东,12078.15,15021.84,18516.87,21900.19,25776.91,30933.28,33896.65,39169.92,45361.85,福 建,4983.67,5763.35,6568.93,7583.85,9248.53,10823.01,12236.53,14737.12,17560.18,吉 林,2662.08,3122.01,3620.27,4275.12,5284.69,6426.10,7278.75,8667.58,10568.83,河 北,6921.29,8477.63,10096.11,11467.60,13607.32,16011.97,17235.48,20394.26,24515.76,湖 北,4757.45,5633.24,6520.14,7617.47,9333.40,11328.89,12961.10,15967.61,19632.26,重 庆,2272.82,2692.81,3070.49,3907.23,4676.13,5793.66,6530.01,7925.58,10011.37,陕 西,2587.72,3175.58,3675.66,4743.61,5757.29,7314.58,8169.80,10123.48,12512.30,黑龙江,4057.40,4750.60,5511.50,6211.80,7104.00,8314.37,8587.00,10368.60,12582.00,宁 夏,445.36,537.16,606.10,725.90,919.11,1203.92,1353.31,1689.65,2102.21,山 西,2855.23,3571.37,4179.52,4878.61,6024.45,7315.40,7358.31,9200.86,11237.55,新 疆,1886.35,2209.09,2604.19,3045.26,3523.16,4183.21,4277.05,5437.47,6610.05,河 南,6867.70,8553.79,10587.42,12362.79,15012.46,18018.53,19480.46,23092.36,26931.03,湖 南,4659.99,5641.94,6511.34,7688.67,9439.60,11555.00,13059.69,16037.96,19669.56,青 海,390.20,466.10,543.32,648.50,797.35,1018.62,1081.27,1350.43,1670.44,海 南,693.20,798.90,894.57,1044.91,1254.17,1503.06,1654.21,2064.50,2522.66,四 川,5333.09,6379.63,7385.11,8690.24,10562.39,12601.23,14151.28,17185.48,21026.68,江 西,2807.41,3456.70,4056.76,4820.53,5800.25,6971.05,7655.18,9451.26,11702.82,广 西,2821.11,3433.50,4075.75,4746.16,5823.41,7021.00,7759.16,9569.85,11720.87,安 徽,3923.10,4759.32,5375.12,6112.50,7360.92,8851.66,10062.82,12359.33,15300.65,西 藏,189.09,220.34,251.21,290.76,341.43,394.85,441.36,507.46,605.83,甘 肃,1399.83,1688.49,1933.98,2276.70,2702.40,3166.82,3387.56,4120.75,5020.37,云 南,2556.02,3081.91,3472.89,3988.14,4772.52,5692.12,6169.75,7224.18,8893.12,贵 州,1426.34,1677.80,1979.06,2338.98,2884.11,3561.56,3912.68,4602.16,5701.84,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,1978,年以来中国经济空间离散性变化轨迹,29,30,31,32,33,34,2,、,1978,年以来中国经济空间格局演变,长三角地区,珠三角地区,环渤海湾地区,中部地区,大西南地区,大西北地区,东北地区,35,长江三角洲地区,优越的历史基础以及区位条件,良好的区域协调发展条件,全国最早的集体与私营经济发展地区,苏南模式与温州模式,江苏省乡镇工业总产值在“六五”期间（,1981,1985,）年平均增长,27.07,，“七五”期间（,1986,1990,）年平均增长,22.07,，“八五”期间（,1991,1995,）年平均增长,43.61,。到“八五”末期，乡镇工业产值占江苏全省工业总产值的,2,3,，成为江苏省工业化的主导力量。,浙江则大力发展个体私营经济。,1998,年，浙江省注册个体私营企业,168,万户，注册资本总额,1404,亿元，从业人员,421,万人，均居全国首位。全国首批500,家最大私营企业中，浙江占,112,家。,2003,年浙江,9200,亿元的生产总值中，个体私营经济为,4790,亿元，占,52.1,。,36,引进外资对区域工业结构升级起到了重要作用,1985,2003,年，长三角实际利用,FDI,增长了,288,倍，年均增长率达,37,，占全国实际利用,FDI,的比重由,1985,年的,5.46,上升到,2003,年的,49,。长三角地区,FDI,对,GDP,增长的报酬率为,0.3641,，即投入的,FDI,每增长,1,，,GDP,将增长,0.3641,，,FDI,对第二产业和第三产业的报酬率达,0.5,左右。,长三角主要工业部门与专业化部门,主要部门,-,纺织业、化学原料及其制品业、交通设备制造业、电气机械制造业、黑色冶金业、普通机械制造业,专业化部门,纺织业、服装业、化学原料及其制品业、化纤制造业、塑料制品业、金属制品业、普通机械制造业、专用设备制造业、交通设备制造业,电气机械制造业、电子工业,37,38,长三角工业化特征,1,）工业化水平全国最高,39,40,41,2,）区域工业化均衡发展,3,）区域特色鲜明，腹地广阔,工业化进一步发展面临的主要问题,1,）土地资源严重短缺,2,）经济粗放发展及其所带来的生态环境问题,3,）自主创新能力短缺问题日益凸显,4,）外向型经济发展所受的挑战日益严峻,5,）城市与社会服务滞后,42,珠三角地区,基础条件,范围,广东、福建、海南；（,福建、江西、广西、海南、湖南、四川、云南、贵州和广东,9,省区，以及香港、澳门,2,个特别行政区，简称“,9,2”,）,丰富的海洋资源与侨乡,优越的区位条件,工业化突出特色,外向型经济特征明显,特色工业部门,以电子、电气为主导的世界制造业中心，为全球性信息技术产业高度集中的地区之一。,工业化水平,仅次于长三角居全国第二位,区域工业化差异较长三角明显,43,44,珠三角支柱部门与专业化部门,电子工业、服装业、纺织业、非金属矿物制品业、化学原料及其制品业,服装业、金属制品业、电气机械制造业、电子工业,珠三角工业化进一步发展面临的问题与对策,1,）经济增长方式转变压力大，形势严峻,国家政策倾斜、外向型经济、两张皮现象、劳动力短缺、经济粗放,2),区域合作问题比较突出,狭义的珠三角与广义的珠三角地区之间经济发展水平、发展意识、政府管理等差异较大,3),环境保护问题较为严峻,45,