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房地产市场发展的历史和现状专业知识讲座.ppt

1、单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,*,文档来源于网络,文档所提供的信息仅供参考之用,不能作为科学依据,请勿模仿。文档如有不当之处,请联系本人或网站删除。,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,文档来源于网络,文档所提供的信息仅供参考之用,不能作为科学依据,请勿模仿。文档如有不当之处,请联系本人或网站删除。,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,文档来源于网络,文档所提供的信息仅供参考之用,不能作为科学依据,请勿模仿。文档如有不当之处,请联系本人或网站

2、删除。,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,文档来源于网络,文档所提供的信息仅供参考之用,不能作为科学依据,请勿模仿。文档如有不当之处,请联系本人或网站删除。,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,文档来源于网络,文档所提供的信息仅供参考之用,不能作为科学依据,请勿模仿。文档如有不当之处,请联系本人或网站删除。,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,文档来源于网络,文档所提供的信息仅供参考之用,不能作为科学依据,请勿模仿。文档如有不当之处,请联系本人或网站

3、删除。,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,文档来源于网络,文档所提供的信息仅供参考之用,不能作为科学依据,请勿模仿。文档如有不当之处,请联系本人或网站删除。,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,文档来源于网络,文档所提供的信息仅供参考之用,不能作为科学依据,请勿模仿。文档如有不当之处,请联系本人或网站删除。,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,文档来源于网络,文档所提供的信息仅供参考之用,不能作为科学依据,请勿模仿。文档如有不当之处,请联系本人或网站

4、删除。,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,文档来源于网络,文档所提供的信息仅供参考之用,不能作为科学依据,请勿模仿。文档如有不当之处,请联系本人或网站删除。,yourmail,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,文档来源于网络,文档所提供的信息仅供参考之用,不能作为科学依据,请勿模仿。文档如有不当之处,请联系本人或网站删除。,第一阶段:,1978-1991,年 理论突破与试点起步阶段,1980,年,9,月,北京市住房统建办率先挂牌,成立了北京城市开发总公司,拉开了房地产综合开发的序幕。,197

5、8,年,理论界提出了住房商品化,土地权等概念,允许私人建房,城市居民可以自建自购,,开始住房制度改革。,1982,年,国务院在四个城市进行售房试点。,1984,年,广东,.,重庆开始征收土地使用费。,1987-1991,年是中国房地产起步的阶段,修改宪法,允许土地批租,分批推行住房制度改革,1991,年,房地产市场建设全面起步,房改开始在全国范围内全面推行。,1987,年,,11,月,26,日,深圳市政府首次公开招标出让住房用地。,1990,年,上海市房改方案出台,开始建立住房公积金制度。,1991,年,国务院先后批复,24,个省市的房改总体方案。,第二阶段:,1992-1995,年,非理性炒

6、作与调整推进阶段,1992,年,房改全面启动,住房公积金全面推行,引进外资,发放开发消费贷款,下放权力,扩大调控范围,1992,年,房地产业急剧快速增长,月投资最高增幅,146.9%,,房地产市场在局部地区相对混乱,个别地区出现明显的房地产泡沫。(海南),1993,年,安居工程全面启动。包括:廉租房,.,经济适用房,.,保障性住房等。,1993,年,年底,国家整顿金融秩序,宏观经济调控后,房地产业投资大幅回落,经过一段时间的低迷开始复苏。,1988,年,8,月,海南脱离广东建省,邓小平同志,1992,南巡后,大量资金涌入海南,,一段时间内海南岛出现了俩万多家房地产公司,,1993,年上半年,海

7、南每平米房,价达到,7500,元每平米的峰值,,5,年期间房价上涨,6,倍!,曾经有一家公司,以每平米,2800,元从另一家公司买了十几栋的别墅,不到一周,,就以每平米,3400,元的价格转手,仅仅几天之内,就有几百万元的进帐,市场之,疯狂可想而知,1993,年,6,月,23,日,时任国务院副总理的朱镕基发表讲话宣布,终止房地产公司上,市,全面控制银行资金进入房地产业,次日,国务院发布,,关于当前经济情况,和加强宏观调控的意见,,提出了以整顿,金融,秩序为重点的,16,条措施,招招切中,要害,,7,月,全国信贷规模急剧紧缩,资金被抽走,房地产的热潮应声而落,海南,房地产热也迅速地退烧,紧急调控

8、给占全国总人口只有,0.6%,的海南省却留下了占全国,10%,的积压商品房,,四大国有商业银行的坏账就高达了,300,亿元,从,1999,年开始,海南省用了整整,7,年,的时间,才使处置积压房地产的工作,基本结束。(,1993,年成都,GDP,:,418.6,亿),第三阶段:,1995-2000,年,相对稳定协调发展阶段,1995,年,颁布,房地产管理法,增值税法,1996,年,公有住房有很大的进展,政策性贷款制度开始建立。,1998,年,发布,城市房地产开发经营管理条例,和,关于进一步深化城镇,住房制度改革,,,要求,1998,年下半年起停止住房实物分配,重点发展经济适用房。,1999,年,

9、鼓励个人换购住房,免征个人所得税,.,免征营业税,.,契税减半。,2000,年,启动住房消费,促进房地产业发展,对住房公积金贷款的个人和银行都免税。,1998,年以后,随着住房实物分配主导的取消和按揭政策的实施,房地产投资进入平稳快速发展时期,房地产成为经济的支柱产业,第四阶段:,2002-2006,年,价格持续上扬,多项调控措施出台的新阶段。,2002,年,,1,月,制止商业银行指定保险单位办理贷款保险业务,3,月,降低公积金贷款利率,5,月,贷款利率由,4.59%,下调至,4.05%,8,月,强化土地供应管理,控制土地供应总量,恢复征收土地增值税。,2003,年,,6,月,出台,121,号

10、文件,房地产商必须取得四证才能发放贷款,提高二套房首付比例,2004,年,上海出台多项政策,,2005,年上海房价明显下降,其他地区大肆上涨,2005,年,,3,月,房贷优惠政策取消,国八条出台(调控上升到政治高度),5,月,七部委统一意见,新的国八条出台。,10,月,国税局重申二手房应缴纳个人所得税,(市场反应:房价继续上涨),2006,年,,4,月,房贷利率再次上调,5,月,国六条出台:调控升级,国务院出台,90.70,平米政策,改善供应需求,国税总局出台二手房营业税政策,开发商无预售许可证不得发布预售广告,建设部出台“,171”,号“外资限炒令”,7,月,,108,号文件征收二手房转让个

11、人所得税。,市场反应:房价继续上涨,涨幅相对平稳,中小户型开始增加。,2007,年,,1,月,建设部规范房地产经纪行业,执业人员需考取当地房地产经纪人资格证,3,月,,物权法,于,2007,年,10,月,1,日起执行。,9,月,央行规定贷款必须以家庭为单位,二套房首付不低于,40%,,利率上浮,1.1,倍,市场反应:价格暴涨,地王频现,政策出台后,价格有所下降。,2008,年,重点打击开发商囤地,降低贷款利率,降息,0.27%,,宣告政府由控制向救市的态度转变,2009,年,,5,月,,关于审理建筑物区分所有权纠纷案件具体应用法律若干问题的解释,和,关于审理物业服务纠纷案件具体应用法律若干问题

12、的解释,的文件出台,,包括业主身份的界定,专有面积,.,共有面积的划分,车位,.,车库纠纷的处理,,住改商纠纷的处理,物业费纠纷处理,物业服务合同的解除及纠纷处理。,6,月,开始全面查处全国范围内的小产权房,不能上市交易。,12,月,个人住房转让营业税免时限由,2,年恢复,5,年,,5,年以上非普通住宅,全额征收,市场反应:短期内观望,二手房成交下降,,2010,年春节后恢复上涨。,2010,年,,1,月,明确二套房首付不得低于,40%,9,月,史上最强调控出台:第三套房拒贷,部分城市开始限购,2011,年,,1,月,新国八条出台,二套房首付不得低于,60%,,利率,1.1,倍。,1,月,28

13、日,上海和重庆正式实施房产税,深圳宣布成为第三个试点城市,5,月,1,日,发改委发布,商品房销售明码标价规定,,一房一个价。,2012,年,,11,月,29,日,国务院修改土地法征收补偿制度,做出修改,补偿提高数倍。,2013,年,,3,月初,二手房个人所得税,可选择按照,20%,差额征收。,2014,年,,9,月,30,日,简称,9.30,房贷新政,个人购房贷款还清不认房。利率下限,0.7,折。,10,月,9,日,公积金贷款要求,连续缴存,12,个月变更为连续缴存,6,个月便可办理,公积金贷款手续,11,月,21,日,贷款利率下调至,5.6%,2015,年,,3,月,30,日,财政部发布通

14、知,个人转让产权满俩年的住房免征营业税。,央行发布通知,二次购房,首付比例降至,40%,8,月,26,日,公积金贷款利率降至,3.25%,10,月,25,日,央行下调贷款利率至,4.35%,,五年期,4.9%,2016,年,,2,月,2,日,银监会发布通告:不限购的城市首付比例降至俩成,二套房首付降至三成。,2,月,17,日,个人购房前俩套住房给予契税优惠,对个人购买俩年以上的住房免征营业税。,首套房,修改后,契税,90,平米及以下为,1%,,之前为,1.5%,。,90,平米以上为最多,1.5%,。,二套房,修改后,契税,90,平米及以下为,1%,,之前为,3%,。,90,平米以上,2%,,之

15、前为,3%,。,12,月,14-16,日,中央经济会议提出:房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的。,市场反应:一线城市价格有所回调,三四线城市价格猛涨。,2016,年房地产值占,GDP,总的,6.5%,,房地产业具有关联度高,带动性强,产业链长,对整个经济的拉动 达到,10-15%,。,2016,年中国城市化率已达到,57.35%,,而西方发达国家目前在,70%,左右,我国估计在,2020,年左右达到,60%,。,PRESENT,人数:美国房地产经纪人大约占人口的千分之五,大约有,150,万人,(,美国目前人口,3,亿,),,全美房地产协会会员,(Realtor)136,万,(2006,年,),。,收

16、入,:经纪人的平均佣金收入在,5.5,万美元,执业经纪人的收入会在,6.5,万美元左右。新经纪人第一年平均佣金收入会在,2,万美元左右,但是优秀的经纪人收入会在,10,万美元以上,也有相当一批高收入的经纪人佣金收入在,30-50,万美元左右,经纪人的资格,:以德克萨斯州为例,取得经纪人执照需要,60,个大学学分,同时要完成以下四门课程,:,房地产原理一,房地产原理二,房地产代理法,房地产合同法。之后,向州政府房地产管理局提出申请,通过背景调查后无重大犯罪记录,方可参加全州统一的房地产经纪人执照考试,(,机考,),。一般来说,第一次考取的只占,50%,,取得销售经纪人执照。,经纪人的种类,:,房

17、地产经纪人的执照分为两种,一种是销售经纪人执照,另一种是执业经纪人执照。执业经纪人执照只有在拥有销售经纪人执照两年之后才能向州政府提出申请,并要继续完成相当一部分房地产专业课程,:,房地产评估,房地产数学,房地产贷款,房地产经营,房地产市场等。之后,才能参加全州统一的房地产执业经纪人考试,(,机考,),。只有执业经纪人才可以独立开业,执照者不可独立开业,但是优秀的经纪人大多是执照者。,美国二手房市场发展状况:,目前美国二手房的交易量在整个交易占比大概在,90%,左右,新房只占交易的,10%,。,国内,二手房的交易大概占比在,30-56%,左右,随着城市化建设的完成,二手房占比会变高。,都江堰目

18、前月成交套数大概在,250-350,套左右,高峰期达到,500-600,套左右。占整个签约比的,60%,左右,还有很大进步的空间。,预期可以看见的是在未来的很长一段时间里二手房在都江堰市场都将处于主导地位,并持续影响整体房价!,都江堰已经整体进入卖方时代!,.,.,都江堰二手房市场的现状,1,一,.,客户多,房源减少。,二,.,房东难以把握,经常跳价。,三,.,客户挑剔,.,观望,不下手。,四,.,市场价格持续上升。,五,.,一手房市场所占比重逐渐上升。,六,.,玉堂新城区开始起步,七,.,市场竞争越发激烈,3,4,未来,1-3,年都江堰市场发展分析报告:,1.,市场供应持续减少,2.,拆迁范

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