管理学双语(整理版)PPT04-Decision-making.ppt

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,6,Foundations of Decision Making,Chapter,04,Management,1,1,6,2,L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E,Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.,The Decision-Making Process,Define decision and decision-making process.,Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process.,The Manager as Decision Maker,Discuss the assumptions of rational decision making.,Describe the concepts of bounded rationality,satisficing,and escalation of commitment.,Explain what intuition is and how it affects decision making.,Contrast programmed and nonprogrammed decisions.,6,3,L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (contd),Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.,The Manager as Decision Maker(contd),Contrast the three decision-making conditions.,Explain maximax,maximin,and minimax decision choice approaches.,Describe the four decision making styles.,Discuss the twelve decision-making biases managers may exhibit.,Describe how manager can deal with the negative effects of decision errors and biases.,Explain the managerial decision-making model.,6,4,L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (contd),Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.,Decision Making for Todays World,Explain how managers can make effective decisions in todays world.,List six characteristics of an effective decision-making process.,Describe the five habits of highly reliable organizations.,6,5,Decision Making,Decision,Making a choice from two or more alternatives.,The Decision-Making Process,Identifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria.,Developing,analyzing,and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem.,Implementing the selected alternative.,Evaluating the decisions effectiveness.,6,6,Exhibit 6.1,The Decision-Making Process,6,7,Step 1:Identifying the Problem,Problem,A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs.,Characteristics of Problems,A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it.There is pressure to solve the problem.,The manager must have the authority,information,or resources needed to solve the problem.,6,8,Step 2:Identifying Decision Criteria,Decision criteria are factors that are important(relevant)to resolving the problem.,Costs that will be incurred(investments required),Risks likely to be encountered(chance of failure),Outcomes that are desired(growth of the firm),Step 3:Allocating Weights to the Criteria,Decision criteria are not of equal importance:,Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process.,6,9,Exhibit 6.2,Criteria and Weights for Franchise Decision,Criterion Weight,Start-up costs 10,Franchisor support 8,Financial qualifications 6,Open geographical locations 4,Franchisor history 3,6,10,Step 4:Developing Alternatives,Identifying viable alternatives,Alternatives are listed(without evaluation)that can resolve the problem.,Step 5:Analyzing Alternatives,Appraising each alternatives strengths and weaknesses,An alternatives appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.,6,11,Step 6:Selecting an Alternative,Choosing the best alternative,The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.,Step 7:Implementing the Decision,Putting the chosen alternative into action.,Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.,6,12,Exhibit 6.3,Assessed Values of Franchise Opportunities Using Decision Criteria,Start-Up Franchise Financial Open FranchisorCosts Support Qualifications Locations HistoryFranchise,Curves For Women 10 3 10 8 5,Quiznos Sandwiches 8 7 7 8 7,Jani-King 8 5 7 10 10,Jackson-Hewitt Tax Service 8 7 7 8 7,GNC Vitamins andNutritional Supplements 7 8 7 8 7,Radio Shack 8 3 6 10 8,Chem-Dry Carpet Cleaning 10 7 8 6 7,McDonalds 4 10 4 8 10,6,13,Exhibit 6.4,Evaluation of Franchise Alternatives Against Weighted Criteria,Start-Up Franchise Financial Open FranchisorCosts Support Qualifications Locations History TotalFranchise,Curves For Women100 24 60 32 15 231,Quiznos Sandwiches80 56 42 32 21 231,Jani-King80 40 42 40 30 232,Jackson-Hewitt Tax Service80 56 42 32 21 231,GNC Vitamins andNutritional Supplements 70 64 42 32 21 229,Radio Shack 80 24 36 40 24 204,Chem-Dry Carpet 100 56 48 24 21 249,McDonalds 40 80 24 32 30 206,6,14,Step 8:Evaluating the Decisions Effectiveness,The soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes.,How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?,If the problem was not resolved,what went wrong?,6,15,Making Decisions,Rationality,Managers make consistent,value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.,Assumptions are that decision makers:,Are perfectly rational,fully objective,and logical.,Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.,Have a clear and specific goal,Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.,6,16,Exhibit 6.6,Assumptions of Rationality,6,17,Making Decisions(contd),Bounded Rationality,Managers make decisions rationally,but are limited(bounded)by their ability to process information.,Assumptions are that decision makers:,Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternatives,Will,satisfice,choose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.,6,18,Influences on Decision Making,Escalation of Commitment,Increasing or continuing a commitment to previous decision despite mounting evidence that the decision may have been wrong.,The Role of Intuition,Intuitive decision making,Making decisions on the basis of experience,feelings,and accumulated judgement.,6,19,Exhibit 6.7,What is Intuition?,Source:,Based on L.A.Burke and M.K.Miller.“Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making.”,Academy of Management Executive,.October 1999.pp.9199.,6,20,Problems and Decisions,Structured Problems,Involve goals that clear.,Are familiar(have occurred before).,Are easily and completely definedinformation about the problem is available and complete.,Programmed Decision,A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.,6,21,Types of Programmed Decisions,A Policy,A general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.,A Procedure,A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond(applying a policy)to a structured problem.,A Rule,An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do in carrying out the steps involved in a procedure.,6,22,Policy,Procedure,and Rule Example,Policy,Accept all customer-returned merchandise.,Procedure,Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.,Rules,Managers must approve all refunds over$50.00.,No credit purchases are refunded for cash.,6,23,Problems and Decisions(contd),Unstructured Problems,Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.,Problems that will require custom-made solutions.,Nonprogrammed Decisions,Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring.,Decisions that generate unique responses.,6,24,Exhibit 6.8,Types of Problems,Types of Decisions,and Level in the Organization,6,25,Decision-Making Conditions,Certainty,A ideal situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known.,Risk,A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood(probability)of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.,6,26,Decision-Making Conditions,Uncertainty,Limited or information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition,hunches,and“gut feelings”.,Maximax:,the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoff,Maximin:,the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoff,Minimax:,the managers choice to minimize his maximum regret.,6,27,Exhibit 6.9,Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift,ExpectedExpectedProbability=Value of EachEventRevenuesAlternative,Heavy snowfall$850,0000.3=$255,000,Normal snowfall 725,0000.5=362,500,Light snowfall 350,0000.2=,70,000,$687,500,6,28,Exhibit 6.10,Payoff Matrix,6,29,Exhibit 6.11,Regret Matrix,6,30,Decision-Making Styles,Dimensions of Decision-Making Styles,Ways of thinking,Rational,orderly,and consistent,Intuitive,creative,and unique,Tolerance for ambiguity,Low tolerance:require consistency and order,High tolerance:multiple thoughts simultaneously,6,31,Decision-Making Styles(contd),Types of Decision Makers,Directive,Use minimal information and consider few alternatives.,Analytic,Make careful decisions in unique situations.,Conceptual,Maintain a broad outlook and consider many alternatives in making long-term decisions.,Behavioral,Avoid conflict by working well with others and being receptive to suggestions.,6,32,Exhibit 6.12,Decision-Making Styles,Source:,S.P.Robbins and D.A.DeCenzo,Supervision Today,.2nd ed.(Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,1998).p.166.,6,33,Exhibit 6.13,Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases,6,34,Decision-Making Biases and Errors,Heuristics,Using“rules of thumb”to simplify decision making.,Overconfidence Bias,Holding unrealistically positive views of ones self and ones performance.,Immediate Gratification Bias,Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.,6,35,Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd),Anchoring Effect,Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.,Selective Perception,Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision makers biased perceptions.,Confirmation Bias,Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.,6,36,Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd),Framing Bias,Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.,Availability Bias,Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.,Representation Bias,Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.,Randomness Bias,Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.,6,37,Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd),Sunk Costs Errors,Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.,Self-Serving Bias,Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.,Hindsight Bias,Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known(after-the-fact).,6,38,Decision Making for Todays World,Guidelines for making effective decisions:,Know when its time to call it quits.,Practice the five“whys”.,Be an effective decision maker.,Habits of highly reliable organizations(HROs),Are not tricked by their success.,Defer to the experts on the front line.,Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution.,Embrace complexity.,Anticipate,but also anticipate their limits.,6,39,Characteristics of an Effective Decision-Making Process,It focuses on what is important.,It is logical and consistent.,It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends analytical with intuitive thinking.,It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma.,It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion.,It is straightforward,reliable,easy to use,and flexible.,6,40,Exhibit 6.14,Overview of Managerial Decision Making,