美国估价师如何为保险公司和REITs提供服务.ppt

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,继续教育2009MessickBowes,Slide,*,美国估价师如何为保险公司和,REITs,提供服务,北京东方美中咨询有限公司,吴数 2009.12,1,继续教育2009MessickBowes,目 录,美国估价行业概述,保险公司及与房地产相关的保险业务,房地产投资基金,REITs,保险公司和,REITs,的特点和对服务的要求,以购物中心的估价为例,介绍如何为保险公司(投资部)和,REITs,提供服务,2,继续教育2009MessickBowes,一.美国估价行业概述,美国估价学会(包括城市土地估价师和房地产估价师)已经有77年的历史,经历了以下三个阶段:,房地产开发阶段的房地产估价,(房地产开发商),房地产投资阶段的房地产估价,(保险公司和,REIT),房地产贷款证券化阶段的房地产估价,(房利美和房地美,次贷危机),3,继续教育2009MessickBowes,二.保险公司及与房地产相关的保险业务,1.保险公司的业务,保险公司,销售部,投资部,证券投资部,房地产投资部,房地产估价,REITs,具体项目,投保,理赔,4,继续教育2009MessickBowes,2.保险的内容,(1).建筑施工,(2).物业管理,(3).房地产财产,在建工程,刚刚完工的房地产,达到稳定出租率时的房地产,5,继续教育2009MessickBowes,3.中国和美国保险行业相比,(1).品种少.中国上海,6,继续教育2009MessickBowes,美国纽约,估价对象：纽约世贸中心,估价时点：,2001,年,9,月,11,日,价值类型：二房东权益的市场价值,估价用途：损害赔偿,建筑物描述：,已使用年限：,35,年,建筑面积（包括二幢塔楼和裙楼）,8,500,000,平方英呎,重建成本：,90110,亿美元,9,继续教育2009MessickBowes,4.市场价值与保险价值,Costs look like this,Land,Hard Costs,Soft Costs,Entrepreneurial Incentive,Fill Up Costs,10,继续教育2009MessickBowes,折旧,Depreciation looks like this,Land,Hard Costs,Soft Costs,Entrepreneurial Incentive,Fill Up Costs,Physical,Functional,External,11,继续教育2009MessickBowes,市场价值,Market Value looks like this,Land,Hard Costs,Soft Costs,Entrepreneurial Incentive,Fill Up Costs,Physical,Functional,External,12,继续教育2009MessickBowes,保险价值,Insurable Value looks like this,Land,Hard Costs,Soft Costs,Entrepreneurial Incentive,Fill Up Costs,Physical,Functional,External,13,继续教育2009MessickBowes,5.技术特点,(1).,R,土,R,房;,Y,土,Y,房,(2).不同阶段,14,继续教育2009MessickBowes,三.房地产投资基金,REITs,1.简介,REIT,Property A,Property B,Property C,INVESTORS,$,Shares,15,继续教育2009MessickBowes,2.中美房地产投资基金实例(1),美国:,GGP,16,继续教育2009MessickBowes,2.中美房地产投资基金实例(2),中国:即将,17,继续教育2009MessickBowes,四.保险公司和,REITs,的特点和对服务的要求,特点:长期收益,要求:,规模比较大,整栋建筑物,出租人权益价值的估价,注重收益法得到的结果,考虑租户组合和租户的信誉,对估价师业务水平要求比较高,18,继续教育2009MessickBowes,出租人权益的价值,基本概念,Fee simple interest(,完全产权权益),Leased fee interest(,出租人权益),Leasehold interest(,承租人权益,即二房东权益）,Fee simple interest=,Leased fee interest+Leasehold interest,完全产权权益,=,出租人权益,+,承租人权益（二房东权益）,价值类型:,市场价值,VS,投资价值,19,继续教育2009MessickBowes,收益法,Concepts,基本概念,:,Leased fee,出租人权益,Leasehold,承租人权益,Fee simple,完全产权权益,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,1,0,10,11,Market rent,市场租金,Contract rent,合同租金,PV,初始投资额,(,现值,),Reversion,期末转售价值,Discount rate for Contract rent,合同租金的折现率,Discount rate for Market rent,市场租金的折现率,Discount rate for Reversion,转售价值的折现率,20,继续教育2009MessickBowes,如何确定折现率(租户组合和租户的信誉),(1).,KORPAZC,(2).,市场提取法,21,继续教育2009MessickBowes,五.购物中心的估价-如何为,REITs,服务,Appraisals,Marketability study,Market Analysis,22,继续教育2009MessickBowes,How appraisers/consultants can work with REITs and pension funds,Acquisition staff of REITs/pension funds usually have MBA or legal background,REITs/pension funds sometimes obtain MAI appraisals,but are not legally required to obtain appraisals,Valuation based primarily on income approach to value,Discounted Cash Flow Analysis using Excel or lease-by-lease analysis software,such as ARGUS,23,继续教育2009MessickBowes,Valuation Process,Identifyclient andintendedusers,Identify the intended use,Identify the purpose ofthe assignment,Effectivedate of theopinion,Identify the relevantcharacteristicsof the property,Assignment conditions,ExtraordinaryAssumptions,HypotheticalConditions,Definition of the Problem,STEP 1,Scope of Work,STEP 2,24,继续教育2009MessickBowes,Valuation Process,Market Area Data,Subject Property Data,Comparable Property Data,Data Collection and Property Description,STEP 3,Market Analysis,Highest and Best Use Analysis,Data Analysis,STEP 4,25,继续教育2009MessickBowes,Valuation Process,Reconciliation of Value Indications and Final Opinion of Value,STEP 6,Cost,Sales Comparison,IncomeCapitalization,Application of the Approaches to Value,STEP 5,Report of Defined Value,STEP 7,26,继续教育2009MessickBowes,Marketability Study,A process that investigates how a,particular piece of property,will be absorbed,sold,or leased under current or anticipated market conditions;includes a market study of the general class of property being studied.,27,继续教育2009MessickBowes,Market Analysis Process,Property productivity analysis,Market delineation,Analyze demand,Analyze supply,Marginal demand analysis,Forecast subject capture,28,继续教育2009MessickBowes,购物中心,购物中心需求量分析步骤,1.预测市场区域内的住户数量,2.预测每个家庭的平均收入,3.预测用于零售商品及服务的支出占收入 百分比,4.预测在类似标的购物中心的支出百分比,5.每平方米建筑面积上的零售额,6.购物中心建筑面积的需求量,29,继续教育2009MessickBowes,同心圆模式,30,继续教育2009MessickBowes,扇型,多中心,31,继续教育2009MessickBowes,多中心,32,继续教育2009MessickBowes,射线,33,继续教育2009MessickBowes,卫星,34,继续教育2009MessickBowes,混合模式,35,继续教育2009MessickBowes,谢谢!,感谢各位估价师听众!,感谢估价师学会!,联系方式:,吴数,shuwu,36,继续教育2009MessickBowes,