理性进化与英国为什么不加入欧元区.pdf

分类号 密级 公开_UDC 编号 20133310002广东外语外贸大学硕士学位论文理性进化与英国为什么不加入欧元区The Rational Evolution Process and Britains not JoiningThe Euro Zone：_ _ _ _ ：71994-2017 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House.All rights reserved.广东夕卜语夕卜贸大学 Guangdong University of Foreign studiesAbstractSince the establishment of the Coal and Steel Community,the European integration process has experienced 60-old-year of development and evolution and secured eye-catching achievements.The euro zone is the most integrated and the most developed and widely-spread regional monetary cooperation all over the world.With the deepening economic integration regional monetary cooperation,it stands to reason that the euro zone,as the most successful case of monetary integration,receive overwhelming attention and become the research object of numerous scholars.The United Kingdom,as one of the most important countries in Europe but not one of the founding countries of the European Community,is strongly against the founding of such an organization right from the outset.What is more unacceptable to it is to become a member of the euro zone,to which requires transference of monetary and fiscal powers upon the entry.In accordance with the rational evolution,the euro zone is a typical representative of the constructive rationalism.However,as a traditional power,the UK did not join it.In this way,does it mean that its not joining fails to conform to the rational evolution?Since this theory has already found its application into the research of European integration,but no one ever studied the euro zone and the relationship between the euro zone and the UK from this perspective.Within the framework of rational evolution theory,this thesis paper is to analyze the establishment of the Euro zone and whether its not joining accords with this theory mainly by means of literature research,historical analysis,case studies and multidisciplinary method.The main research of the thesis comprises the following four parts.The First Part is intended to employ relevant data to make economic calculation and the euro zone nationalism regression in order to analyze whether the establishment of euro zone conforms to the rational evolution,including such standards as the establishment of model,the openness of the economy,labor migration and economic structural similarity,etc.and the new converged nationalism.In the Second Part,the relationship between the euro area and the United Kingdom is mainly described,consisting of the process of the establishment of the euro zone and71994-2017 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House.All rights reserved,广东夕卜语夕卜贸大学 Guangdong University of Foreign studiesBritish attitude and policy towards it.The process of rational evolution in Britains decision not to join the euro zone mainly by economic calculation,such as,the loss of monetary policy and fiscal policy after its entry to the euro zone,is studied in the Third Part which more specifically includes an assessment of Browns Five Criterion for Testing,the cost analysis of its entry to the euro zone and such deep-seated factors out of the consideration of material benefits as Britains culture,historic tradition,as well as its fundamental attitude towards the EUs development.The Fourth Part is devoted to an analysis of the influence of Britains not joining on itself and on the euro zone as well.Finally,the theoretical and practical rational analysis prompts the author to conclude that rational evolution is accompanied by and promotes the process of European integration.Its not joining in the euro zone has its own rational selection criteria.As a comprehensive study of rational evolution and the euro zone,this master thesis is innovative,to some degree,due to relatively few domestic and foreign research data on the relevant aspects.Meanwhile,it could provide new way of thinking to the European integration study and shed some light on the predicament the European Union is now situated in.Key words:Rational Evolution;Euro Zone;Britain.iii71994-2017 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House.All rights reserved.广东夕卜语夕卜贸大学 Guangdong University of Foreign studies摘要摘要自煤钢共同体建立以来，欧洲一体化进程经历60多年的发展与演变，取得了举世瞩目 的成就。欧元区是世界上一体化程度最高、发展最为成熟的区域性货币联盟。随着当今全球 经济一体化程度的不断加深，区域货币合作的广泛展开，欧元区作为货币一体化最成功的案 例，理所当然备受瞩目，成为广大学者的研究对象。英国是欧洲的重要国家，但却不是欧共 体的创始国，它甚至从一开始就反对成立这样一个组织。对于需要让渡货币财政大权的欧元 区，英国更是无法接受成为欧元区的一员。根据理性进化的观点，欧元区是建构理性的一个 典型代表，然而，作为传统强国的英国却没能加入欧元区，那么英国不加入欧元区是不是就 不符合理性进化呢？理性进化理论已经被有关学者应用到欧洲一体化的研究，但从来没有人 从理性进化角度研究欧元区以及欧元区与英国的关系。在运用理性进化的相关理论框架下，本文分析了欧元区的成立以及英国没加入欧元区是 否符合理性进化，主要采用文献研究，历史分析，案例研究和多学科分析的研究方法，主要 研究内容共分为四个部分：第一部分利用相关数据进行经济计算，以及对欧元区各国民族主 义的消退来分析欧元区的建立是否符合理性进化，包括建立模型，采用经济对外开放程度、劳动力流动、经济结构相似性等标准以及新的聚合式民族主义。第二部分简要介绍了欧元区 与英国的关系。包括欧元区的建立过程，英国对欧元区的态度和政策。第三部分研究了英国 没加入欧元区的理性进化过程，主要是从经济计算，比如加入欧元区后货币政策财政政策的 损失。其中包括对布朗五项测试标准的评估，对英国加入欧元区成本的分析以及一些超出物 质利益考虑的深层次因素如英国的文化、历史传统以及英国人对欧盟发展的根本态度等等来 进行分析。第四部分对英国不加入欧元区产生的影响做了分析。包括对英国自身的影响以及 对欧元区的影响。最后通过理论和实践中的理性分析，笔者得出结论：最优货币区理论中的 理性思维、欧元区内及区外国家的理性选择都表明理性进化伴随并推动了欧洲一体化的进 程。英国不加入欧元区有其自己的理性选择条件。本文是理性进化与欧元区问题的综合研究，国内外对相关方面的研究资料相对而言比较 少，因此具有一定的新颖性。同时为欧洲一体化研究提供了新的思路，对现行的欧洲一体化 困境有一定的启示作用。关键词：理性进化欧元区英国IV71994-2017 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House.All rights reserved,广东夕卜语夕卜贸大学 Guangdong University of Foreign studiesTable of ContentsAbstract.II摘 要.IVChapter 1 Introduction.11.1 General Statement.11.2 Research Feasibility.21.3 Research Status and Significance.21.3.1 Research Status.21.3.2 Researches into Rational Evolution.31.3.3 Researches into Britain not Joining the Euro Zone.41.3.4 Research Significance.6Chapter 2 Summary of Studies on Rationality and Analytical Framework.82.1 Definition of Rationality and Its Development Process.82.2 Ancient Greek Rationalism.102.3 Descartes5s Rationalism.122.4 Hayeks Rationalism.142.5 Constructive Rationalism and Evolutionary Rationalism.15Chapter 3 The Establishment of The Euro Area is The Result of Rational Evolution.183.1 GG-LL Model.203.1.1 Income from The Monetary Union:GG Curve.203.1.2 Cost of Joining Monetary Union:LL Curve.223.1.3 Synthesis of GG Curve and LL Curve.233.2 Analysis of The degree of Economic Integration In The Euro Zone.243.2.1 The Economic Openness of The 12 Euro Zone Countries.243.2.2 Labor Mobility.263.2.3 Economic Structure Similarity of The 12 Euro Zone Countries.303.3 The Fading of Traditional Nationalism and The Euro Zone.323.3.1 Traditional Nationalism and Aggregated Nationalism.323.3.2 Development motivation of Aggregated Nationalism.333.3.3 Positive Role of Aggregated Nationalism.353.4 Summary.35Chapter 4 The Creation of The Euro Zone and Its Relationship with Britain.374.1 The Creation of The Euro Zone.374.1.1 nWemer Plan Put Forward and Died.384.1.2 The Establishment and The Development of EMS.404.1.3 The Establishment and The Development of EMU.414.2 The Relationship between Britain and The Euro Area.444.2.1 Britains Attitudes and Policies towards The Euro Zone.444.2.2 Brown?s Five Criterion for Testing.46Chapter 5 The Rational Evolution Process and Britains not Joining The Euro Zone.485.1 Evaluation of Browns Five Criterion for Testing.485.1.1 Consistency and Flexibility Criterion.495.1.2 Investment and Employment Standards.50V71994-2017 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House.All rights reserved.广东夕卜语夕卜贸大学 Guangdong University of Foreign studies5.1.3 Status of Financial Services in London.515.2 Cost of Britains Entry into The Euro Zone.515.2.1 Loss of Economic Policy Sovereignty.515.2.2 Cost of keeping pace with The Euro Zone Finance.525.2.3 Defects in The Euro Zone System and Policy Framework.535.2.4 Slow Economic Growth Rate.535.3 Other reasons fbr Britains not joining the euro zone.545.3.1 British Peoples Confidence in The Pound.545.3.2 Disagreement with the views of European Integration.565.3.3 The Special Relationship between Britain and America.575.3.4 British not Identifying with The Identity of The Europeans.58Chapter 6 The Impact of Britains not Joining The Euro Zone.606.1 Impact on The UK.606.2 Impact on The Euro Zone.61Chapter 7 Conclusion.63References.66致 谢.69VI71994-2017 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House.All rights reserved,广东夕卜语夕卜贸大学 Guangdong University of Foreign studiesChapter 1：Introduction1.1 General StatementSince the advent of the euro starting in 1999.1n 2002,France,Germany and other major European countries have been hoping to join the euro zone to contribute to the promotion of European integration.In the European Union,Britain had a chance to enter the euro zone when it was fully qualified for the convergence criteria of the Maastricht treaty,but Britain has already announced its not joining the euro temporarily.As a great power in Europe,both in the past and present,Britain continues to seek to play a leading role in Europe and around the world,but why does Britain give up this important opportunity to reinforce the strength of economic and monetary union construction?The attitude of British towards euro evolves from the initial fierce opposition to the current negative silence,which can not be employed purely to understand the material interests of the factors.In the UKs attitude towards the euro and related policies,except for the material interests.There is a deep level of factors which has some bearing on the British culture,historical tradition and the fundamental attitude of the British people on the development of the European Union,etc.The problem of joining the euro zone is not only one in Britain,but also in the euro zone and the world.With the passage of time,and the increase of a number of uncertainties,the United Kingdom as a non euro zone country will gradually reveal the drawbacks.The euro zone has lost numerous potential benefits because of the lack of the UK.Besides,Britains wait-and-see attitude will,to a certain extent,affect the promotion of European integration and the development of the world economy.Within the framework of constructive rationalism and evolutionary rationalism,this article analyzes the establishment of the euro zone and puts forward the highest standards of rationality evolutionary,namely,logical analysis and balancing interests,171994-2017 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House.All rights reserved.广东夕卜语夕卜贸大学 Guangdong University of Foreign studieslong-term perspective,secularism(the Democratic recession),and compromise.Besides,the reason for Britains and other countries5 joining the euro is analyzed from the perspective of rational evolution.There are two issues remaining to be solved in this paper:what is rationality in Euro Zone?How does rational evolution influence Britains not joining of Euro Zone.1.2 Research FeasibilityIn accordance with the European Union Treaty(the Maastricht Treaty”plan),the euro started as scheduled On January 1st,1999.What is note-worthy is that in the European Union,with its qualification for an early convergence criteria of the Maastricht Treaty,it should have entered the euro area earlier,but it has already announced its not joining the euro temporarily.The UKs economic strength ranked the second in the EU,but it remained outside the euro zone.Whether Britain should join the euro zone is not only the most important issue for the United Kingdom itself but also a world-wide concern.Many scholars have carried on this research and their studies into European Union provide abundant material for this thesis.The original idea of Rational Evolution&British attitude comes from my mentor endowed with his compound educational background of history,economics and field trip to Europe.Besides,his support and guidance for this thesis are too valuable to be put into words.What is more,my strong personal interest on the relationship of euro zone and Britain and three years of European study provide me with a solid foundation of European study.1.3 Research Status and Significance1.3.1 Research StatusEuro zone is the place where a unified currency is in use among the European271994-2017 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House.All rights reserved,广东夕卜语夕卜贸大学 Guangdong University of Foreign studiesUnion members.On January 1st,1999,EU countries began to implement a single currency euro as well as a unified monetary policy in the euro zone.Euro zone includes 19 members and another 9 countries and regions using the euro as a single currency in the local.However,as a competitor to the dollars reserve currency,the euros circulation is not limited to the region.Due to a high proportion of countries in the euro zone,and the importance of the euro in the international monetary system,as established economic power,its hard to understand that the British failed to join the euro.In light of this,numerous experts,scholars and institutions conduct a lot of researches in the field.On the contrary,the research from the perspective of the rational evolution is relatively less.1.3.2 Researches into Rational EvolutionRational evolution derived from Darwins theory of evolution,J.Evans(1981)explained the relationship between reason and evolution and how rational evolution and rational thinking change peoples inner world.Elliott(2004)has deepened the theory of J.Evans,and his concentrated idea follows that mans mind is in constant evolution to adapt to the development of society,and then render the whole world more reasonable.Peter J Hammond(1998)confirmed that the economic activities that fit the humans intentions through mathematical calculations are rational.Liz Bette Hawke(2004)in his paper analyzed the relationship between identity and economic rationality and draw economic rationality develop the Europeans belonging to the EU and a sense of identity.Hayek(1995)made a thorough discussion on the reason,the two methods of Evolutionary Rationalism and constructivist rationalism began in Hayek.Hayek holds the rational view of evolution,argues that cultural evolution and rationality are developed simultaneously,and opposes the idea that rationalism is a priori reason and rationality is supreme.Hayek believes that in addition to the two sources of morality371994-2017 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House.All rights reserved,广东夕卜语夕卜贸大学 Guangdong University of Foreign studiesand reason,there exists another important source,namely selective evolution.The source of morality constitutes the three levels of human behavior rules,in which the second layer evolution abstract rules constitute the basis of the third layers of rational construction rules.Jia Gen Xu(2005)provided that the rational concept of economics has a double meaning of purpose reason and instrumental reason,and from such a curve that complete rationality and limited rationality and non rationality illustrates how the concept of rationality in the field of economics evolve in the field of economics,finally,it explains that the rational person hypothesis although have a variety of defects but is still the base of economic research,rational analysis method still has a strong explanatory power and adaptability.1.3.