能源转型期间的油气安全.pdf

Oil and gas security during the energy transitionChris Doleman,Senior Researcher,APERCAPERC Worksho2Emerging trends3Energy security is now at the center of energy policy discussions Pandemic recovery is prompting a rebound in energy demand Energy supply growth is constrained by several combining factors Russia-Ukrainian war is reorganizing energy supply chainsMonthly fossil fuel prices on an energy equivalent basis,1997 to 2022(USD per MMBtu)Source:IMF,JOGMEC,EIA,APERC analysis 0 10 20 30 40 50Jan-1997Sep-1999 May-2002Jan-2005Sep-2007 May-2010Jan-2013Sep-2015 May-2018Jan-2021Asian LNG priceNewcastle CoalBrent oilSevere weather is exacerbating APECs energy security challenges4 Extreme temperatures elevate demand profiles while challenging fuel supply availability and reliability Storm surges disrupting just-in-time deliveries,damaging infrastructure Droughts reducing fuel and coolant availabilitySource:MISO Prioritisation of domestic energy endowments for domestic use Energy export bans:Indonesias month-long coal export ban(January 2022)Australia considering gas reservation China increasing coal productive capacity to rely less on imports Securing the upstream through direct investments Japan investing in LNG projects,and natural gas supply in the US Governments are rethinking their long-term energy plans to reduce reliance on oil and gas imports Viet Nam shifting long-term power mix away from oil,gas and coal and towards renewables5Governments are putting energy security into their own hands6 Governments participate in or guide LNG supply procurement;Singapore is chartering stand-by FSU,FSRU capacity More regulation to wholesale and retail electricity markets Price caps for wholesale natural gas and coal(to in turn reduce power prices)in Australia Regulators mandating the weatherproofing of energy supply chains in the US(with questionable effectiveness)SPR releases to put a ceiling on crude prices SubsidiesGovernments are intervening in energy markets to improve affordabilitySingapore LNG storage capacity(million m3)Monthly Indonesian gas price with controls versus spot LNG prices,USD per MMBtu,January 2020 to May 2022 Source:GIIGNL,Platts,EMA,APERC AnalysisSource:MEMR,IMF,APERC Analysis0510152025303540Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Spot LNGOriginal Price ContractGas policy fixed price7Long-term LNG contracts are insulating some from high spot prices Long-term contracts are insulating incumbent importers from elevated,volatile spot prices Chinas short-term contract flexibility,lower demand enabled it to balance global LNG markets in 2022 0 10 20 30 40 50Jan-2020May-2020Sep-2020Jan-2021May-2021Sep-2021Jan-2022May-2022Sep-2022LNG oil index 10 to 15%Asian LNG spotLNG HH indexMonthly commodity prices facing LNG importers(USD per MMBtu),2020 to 2022Source:JOGMEC,IMF,EIA,APERC analysis0%20%40%60%80%100%2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022ChinaJapanMexicoChineseTaipeiThailandSingaporeKoreaWindSolarOther RenewablesOther FossilNuclearNet ImportsHydroGasBioenergyCoal Technological capacity limits current fuel switching Sophistication,redundancy and replacement increases fuel switching ability,but do not emerge overnight Government policy can also play a role in limiting fuel switching(for example,coal-to-gas switching targets)8Short-term fuel switching away from gas is difficult in practiceElectricity fuel in select APEC LNG importing economies.2021 and 2022Source:EMBER9Binding supply constraints suggest a return to the boom-bust oil cycle Capital discipline,labor shortages,input constraints limiting supply growth,shifting the marginal supplier out of APEC A decade of demand growth and inelastic supply could spell the return of the boom-bust oil cycle 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200Jan-2019Jun-2019Nov-2019Apr-2020Sep-2020Feb-2021Jul-2021Dec-2021 May-2022 Oct-2022CementSteel pipe and tubeIndustrial sandSource:BLSMonthly producer price index of oil and gas service inputs,2019 to 2022,100=Jan 201910Infrastructure constraints could limit supply growth Growing interest in US LNG exports as Europe shifts away from Russian pipeline exports However,infrastructure and capital constraints could limit the supply to these new LNG facilities0501001502002502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030ProposedUnderconstructionLNG export capacity potential in the US,2016 to 2030,MtpaSource:EIA11Refinery product constraints creating availability,affordability concerns Chinas export quotas curbing supply Phasedown of Russian oil product exports Capacity reductions due to retirements,unexpected damages and bioconversionsChinas annual oil product exports and quotas,2019 to 2022(kt)Source:Platts,Reuters,EGEDA,APERC Analysis 010 00020 00030 00040 00050 00060 00070 00080 0002019202020212022Oil product exports(less fuel oil)Export quotas12Biofuel mandates are alone insufficient for improving energy security Mandates may be substituting oil security concerns with biofuel security concerns050010001500200025002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 20192010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019BiodieselBioethanolDomesticImportedSupply of biofuel for blending in Peru(thousand barrels)Source:EGEDA,Reuters,Platts13Emergency response programs are effective at ensuring energy security Emergency response measures are very effective at ensuring energy security,including grid reliability Japans effective emergency response could be a blueprint for others to imitate at the gas and electric retail level20 00030 00040 00050 00022/03/20220:0022/03/20228:0022/03/202216:0023/03/20220:0023/03/20228:0023/03/202216:00Hourly peak demandForecasted peakTEPCO forecasted and peak demand,March 22 to 23 2022,(MW)Source:TEPCO,Grid Monitor,APERC analysis Plenty of examples of short-term actions throughput APEC that are helping the region navigate acute oil and gas supply disruptions Households,businesses,suppliers,and governments are collectively mitigating the economic impacts However,constraints could limit these short-term responses going forward14Short-term actions are improving energy security,but these have limits15Oil and gas demand will likely remain robust this decade In CN,gas supply requirements will grow a tenth,oil supply fall slightly Despite higher production,oil and gas import dependence will remain elevated and even grow in SEA Supply disruptions will continue to pose a risk to some APEC economiesAPEC total primary energy supply by fuel in CN of the APEC Outlook 8th Ed.2020 and 2030(PJ)-50 000 0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 00020202030Other fuelsHydrogenElectricityRenewablesNuclearGasOilCoalSource:APERC16Recommendations to improve energy security during this energy transition17Actions to improve energy security for oil and gas users Invest in electrification,efficiency to reduce import dependence Consider investments in redundancy,sophistication and replacement Develop short-term demand response programs at the retail level Diversify long-term energy and power plans 0 5 10 15 20 25 302021202220232024202520262027202820292030CanadaUSDemand reduction via air-source heat pump adoption in select APEC economies(bcm)Source:OEE(2022a,2022b,2022c),Nature,Carbon Brief,APERC analysis18Actions to increase oil and gas supply Alleviate shale service bottlenecks:invest in productive capacity,eliminate tariffs and research labor bottlenecks Simplify the permitting process and frontload investments in methane,flaring and emission reductions Commit to replenishing SPR storage volumes to reduce demand-side uncertainty during the transition Winterise the entire gas supply chain of producer-exportersUS weekly frac fleet countSource:Primary Vision 0 100 200 300 400 500 600201420152016201720182019202020212022202319Actions to increase LNG supply,mitigate disruptions Sign long-term contracts,invest in upstream LNG supply chain,and pool collectively bids Enable LNG reloading at all import terminals Expand LNG storage tanks Invest in the resiliency of the LNG shipping supply chains050100150200250300Under 1010 to 1920 to 2930 and overUnder 1010 to 1920 to 2930 and overMossMembraneSteamSteam reheatDFDETFDEX-DFME-GISSDRActive global LNG carrier fleet,segmented by age,propulsion type and containment typeSource:IGU,GIIGNL,APERC analysis20Actions to increase oil product and liquids supply Consider extending refinery lifetimes Ensure that bioconversions do not result in net capacity declines Make bioblending mandates conditional on parallel supply increases 02 0004 0006 0008 00010 00012 00014 00016 00018 00020 000Jan-2019Jan-2020Jan-2021Jan-2022US operable refinery capacity(kb/d)Source:EIA21Increasing mitigation capacity for crude oil,oil products Develop an operationalization roadmap for joint-stockpiling of oil and oil products in APEC subregions Invest in stockpiling,SPRs to mitigate just-in-time disruptions to oil and oil product supply Replenish stockpiles at low price levels 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800Aug-1982Aug-1988Aug-1994Aug-2000Aug-2006Aug-2012Aug-2018US weekly ending stocks of crude oil in SPR stocks,million barrels,1982 to 2022Source:EIA22DiscussionThank you.https:/aperc.or.jpchristopher.dolemanaperc.or.jp