重新想象非洲的经济增长.pdf

June 2023Reimagining economic growth in AfricaTurning diversity into opportunityAuthorsMayowa KuyoroAcha LekeOlivia WhiteJonathan WoetzelKartik JayaramKendyll HicksEditorStephanie StromThe McKinsey Global Institute was established in 1990.Our mission is to provide a fact base to aid decision making on the economic and business issues most critical to the worlds companies and policy leaders.We benefit from the full range of McKinseys regional,sectoral,and functional knowledge,skills,and expertise,but editorial direction and decisions are solely the responsibility of MGI directors and partners.Our research is currently grouped into five major themes:Productivity and prosperity:Creating and harnessing the worlds assets most productively Resources of the world:Building,powering,and feeding the world sustainably Human potential:Maximizing and achieving the potential of human talent Global connections:Exploring how flows of goods,people,and ideas shape economies Technologies and markets of the future:Discussing the next big arenas of value and competitionWe aim for independent and fact-based research.None of our work is commissioned or funded by any business,government,or other institution;we share our results publicly free of charge;and we are entirely funded by the partners of McKinsey.While we engage multiple distinguished external advisers to contribute to our work,the analyses presented in our publications are MGIs alone,and any errors are our own.You can find out more about MGI and our research at Global InstituteMGI DirectorsSven Smit(chair)Chris BradleyKweilin EllingrudMarco PiccittoOlivia WhiteJonathan WoetzelMGI PartnersMichael ChuiMekala KrishnanAnu MadgavkarJan MischkeJeongmin SeongTilman TackeiMcKinsey Global Institute|Reimagining economic growth in Africa:Turning diversity into opportunityContentsAt a glance iiiAfricas growth has downshifted since 2010,after a promising opening to the millennium 2There is no one Africathe continents recent slowdown masks divergence across countries 8Africa is the worlds fastest-urbanizing region but depends too heavily on its primary cities 27Africas large companies have proven resilientand most have considerable unmet potential for growth 37Fostering productive growth in Africa:Opportunities for African businesses and governments 47Acknowledgments 51Bibliography 53iiMcKinsey Global Institute|Reimagining economic growth in Africa:Turning diversity into opportunity Despite a promising start to the millennium,Africas long-term economic growth has been slow.The continent is home to the worlds youngest and fastest-growing population,but its economic performance has lagged behind.Since 1990,its GDP per capita has grown just 1 percent annually,compared with 5 percent in India and 8 percent in China.The 200010 decade saw an acceleration across much of the continent,but growth retreated in 201019.Productivity across all sectors of the African economy is lower than in comparable regions of the world.Despite a fundamental shift to services,Africa could add$1.4 trillion to its economy,almost doubling the value added by services today,were it to match the productivity growth of Asias strongest services.Rekindling industrialization and increasing intracontinental trade will be crucial complements,together with boosting agricultural productivity to ensure the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of African farmers.Yet there is no“one Africa”nearly half of its people live in countries where economies have grown consistently over the past 20 years.Annual GDP growth in these primarily midsize economies in East and West Africa has averaged more than 4 percent.The rest of the population lives in countries with slower growth,including the continents three largest economies,Egypt,Nigeria,and South Africa.Africa is the fastest-urbanizing place on earth,with more than 500 million people likely to leave the countryside between now and 2040.Most will move to the continents largest cities,increasing the need for better infrastructure and more productive jobs to enable these migrants to thrive.Similar investment in smaller second cities could take the pressure off their larger cousins,spreading rising productivity and incomes more broadly.In Africa today,at least 345 companies have annual revenues of more than$1 billion.Their growth and performance are mixed,with some fast-growing stars and some shrinking laggards.By 2030,more than half of these companies could increase their collective annual revenues of$1 trillion by more than$550 billion by accessing new markets and increasing productivity.Africa can reignite growth through improved productivity,drawing on insights from existing successes across its diverse countries,cities,and companies.Accelerating digitization,developing the continents talent,collaborating more regionally,investing in urban infrastructure,and growing more business champions are some of the ways Africa can increase productivity to support strong and sustainable growth.At a glanceiiiMcKinsey Global Institute|Reimagining economic growth in Africa:Turning diversity into opportunityAfrica is home to the worlds youngest and fastest-growing population,burgeoning cities,and bold innovations in everything from fintech to clean energy.With its population expected to nearly double to 2.5 billion by 2050,the continent has myriad opportunities to harness its rich natural resources and abundant human potential to increase economic growth and prosperity not only in Africa but around the globe.As the fastest-urbanizing region on the planet,it is an exciting new market for many companies.In an aging world,the continents young and fast-growing workforce represents a rich source of talent:some 796 million people will join the working population by 2050,and Africas workforce will soon be larger than Chinas or Indias.These strengths and assets present an opportunity for the continent to vastly improve its productivity and reverse the marked economic deceleration that it endured between 2010 and 2019.GDP growth fell 35 percent over that periodand then the COVID-19 pandemic took hold.Today,60 percent of Africas population lives in poverty,the result of per capita income growth that has averaged just 1.1 percent a year since 1960.Yet the continent-wide statistics obscure successes in many of its constituent countries that,while uneven,can serve as models to establish productivity as the foundation of Africas economic growth,rather than the volatile commodities that have historically played that role.Over the past decade,certain countries,cities,and companies have been beacons of innovation,productivity,and growth.Their successes offer models and innovations that can reinvigorate economies in other African countries that have lacked sufficient growth to propel the 400 million Africans living in extreme poverty,as well as others who are less impoverished but remain vulnerable,across the empowerment line.1Geographically,Africa is as large as China,Europe,India,and the United States combined,and its 54 countries vary dramatically in population,income level,and governance.Africa is also the most economically fragmented region in the world,and the divergent paths of development in each of its countries reflect this.2 Understanding and attending to that diversity of qualities and outcomes among its constituent countries are critical to any effort to rekindle productivity and growth across the continentthere is no“one Africa.”Mindful of the diversity of Africas economic challenges,this report takes a granular approach in its analysis of Africas countries,cities,and companies from 2000 to 2019.Each African nation can deploy its particular strengths and capabilities in ways that promote productivity-led growth and improve lives across the continent at large.Reimagining Africas growth is achievable and,more than ever,vital for the welfare of the world.1 The empowerment line is an MGI estimate of the means required for every individual to achieve sufficiency in basic needs(for example,nutrition,energy,housing,healthcare,education,and other essentials)along with economic security,enabling them to cross the hurdle of mere subsistence and be empowered to realize their potential.2 Acha Leke,Mutsa Chironga,and Georges Desvaux,Africas business revolution:How to succeed in the worlds next big growth market,Harvard Business Review Press,2018.1McKinsey Global Institute|Reimagining economic growth in Africa:Turning diversity into opportunityIntroduction Africas growth has downshifted since 2010,after a promising opening to the millennium Thirteen years ago,MGI published its first report on Africas economies,Lions on the move:The progress and potential of African economies,a title that reflected the dynamism and power we saw radiating from a newly thriving continent.That publication,our subsequent perspectives,and work by others contributed to the worlds rising expectations of Africas growth and economic potential.3However,when it comes to Africas economic performance,not all decades are alike.This report focuses on the decade from 2010 to 2019,before COVID-19 swept the world.Its findings are drawn from our yearlong study that analyzed the economic performance and potential of African countries,cities,and companies,enriched by conversations with many of the continents leading thinkers and business leaders.Looking at this and the two decades before this periodthe burst of high growth at the start of the century that followed the sluggish 1990sputs the economic acceleration from 2000 to 2010 into context.Over the 30-year period from 1990 through 2019,Africas real GDP grew at a 3 Lions on the move:The progress and potential of African economies,McKinsey Global Institute,June 2020;Acha Leke and Saf Yeboah-Amankwah,“Africa:a crucible for creativity,”Harvard Business Review,NovemberDecember 2018;see Simon London,“How to win in Africa:An interview with Acha Leke and Georges Devaux,”McKinsey Quarterly,November 2018.2McKinsey Global Institute|Reimagining economic growth in Africa:Turning diversity into opportunityrate of 3.7 percent annually,compared with Indias 6.2 percent and Chinas 9.1 percent.Given the continents rapidly expanding population,the contrast between these three regions is even more stark on a per capita basis:GDP per capita in Africa grew by only 1 percent per year,compared with 5 percent in India and 8 percent in China(Exhibit 1).Exhibit 1Includes 47 African countries with consistent data for 19902019,excluding Djibouti,Eritrea,Liberia,Libya,Sao Tome and Principe,Somalia,and South Sudan.Source:World Bank;UN Department of Economic and Social Afairs,population division;McKinsey Global Institute analysisAfricas real GDP per capita has grown only 1.1%annually since 1990.McKinsey&CompanyReal gross domestic product per capita,2015$thousandCAGR 1990201920202010200019900108642AfricaIndiaChina1.1%4.6%8.4%Over the past 30 years,GDP per capitaincreased more than 10 times in China and four times in India,while Africas has not yet doubled.GDP CAGR,%19902000200010201019Africa 19902019average:3.7%Population CAGR,%9.85.62.510.26.75.17.26.43.30.91.92.60.61.62.50.51.12.6Africa 19902019average:2.6%ChinaIndiaAfrica3McKinsey Global Institute|Reimagining economic growth in Africa:Turning diversity into opportunityAfrica did not benefit from the tailwinds that propelled many emerging economies into the new millennium.In the decade between 1990 and 2000,Africas GDP grew by only 2.5 percent a year,or a bit slower than its population growth rate.Unlike China,India,and other regions,the continent was not among the first places to benefit from broad corporate moves to offshore operations to lower-cost manufacturing bases.Gaps in infrastructure and skills,along with relatively high hurdles to conducting business,low levels of intracontinental trade,and dependence on natural resources,were obstacles to Africas growth.In the first decade of the 21st century,however,African economies experienced a broad-based economic acceleration.Between 2000 and 2010,the continents real GDP grew 5.1 percent a year,roughly twice the rate of the 1990s.More than two-thirds of the 30 largest economies in Africa accelerated their growth during this decade relative to the previous one.4 The continent attracted increasing investment and experienced a rise in consumer spending.It also benefited from improved political stability,productivity,and business growth.A strong global commodity cycle set off a boom in African mining from 2002 to 2007,as metal and oil prices almost tripled and foreign investors looked to Africa to help meet growing demand driven by the rapid growth of emerging economies elsewhere.5 While many Africans remained poor,the proportion of the continents population living in extreme poverty fell by ten percentage points.There was widespread optimism that,after a long period of stagnation,Africa was rising.After 2010,however,Africas economic progress slowed due to a confluence of factors ranging from waning demand for commodities to deteriorating economic fundamentals in the continents largest economies.The decade got off to a rocky start,as demand for commodities waned.Steep price declines hit oil exporters in particular just as the Arab Spring in 2011 and subsequent conflicts and institutional instability slowed economic activity across North Africa.Together,countries affected by these trends account for almost three-fifths of the continents combined GDP.Oil price shocks presaged a longer-term decline in other commodities that affected additional African countries such as South Africa.The value of African commodity exports fell from$256 billion in 2010 to$147 billion in 2019,and the continents share of global commodity exports declined from 7 percent to 4 percent.6 Crude oil and natural gas accounted for the lions share of this decline,but exports of more buoyant commodities such as copper ore and coffee also stagnated.Political instability also increased across the continent and continues,even in countries with faster-growing economies.We found that 30 percent of Africas population was affected by unstable political events such as coups that brought instability in the 201019 decade,compared with 4 percent in the preceding decade.Declining foreign direct investment(FDI)added to economic deceleration on the continent.After quintupling to peak in 2008,FDI flows into Africa declined in 31 of Africas 54 countries,falling fastest in in Nigeria and South Africa,the two largest economies.7 4 Previous MGI research reported economic acceleration in 27 African countries based on World Bank data for the period 2000 to 2008.The update in this report reflects a difference of time period(2000 to 2010)and a restatement of the World Banks GDP estimates,which brought to 30 the number of African countries experiencing accelerated growth in real GDP from 2000 to 2010.Due to a lack of data,we have excluded Djibouti,Eritrea,Liberia,Libya,Sao Tome and Principe,Somalia,a