2023中国奢侈品行业市场.pdf

2022年因为疫情出现下滑的中国内地奢侈品市场在2023年迎来复苏，但是现有经济环境和海外消费回暖减慢了复苏势头。疫情过后，中国内地奢侈品市场开始向正常增长模式过渡，但消费者信心恢复速度有多快？海外奢侈品消费能恢复多少？前进道路上依然存在着一些不确定因素。2023年中国奢侈品市场：复苏和过渡之年 本册著作权归贝恩公司所有。作者简介及致谢布鲁诺（Bruno Lannes）是贝恩公司消费品和零售业务资深全球合伙人，常驻上海。联系方式：.邢微微是贝恩公司消费品和零售业务全球合伙人，常驻香港。联系方式：.报告的作者特别感谢贝恩公司董事经理刘瑞楠和贝恩公司助理顾问邢开珺为本报告做出的贡献。rQwOqNnPzQpMpPpNnOyRtMbRbP6MoMqQpNtPfQoOtRlOqQsM8OoPmMvPqNnPvPmMpN2023年中国奢侈品市场：复苏和过渡之年1摘要 2022年因为疫情出现下滑的中国内地奢侈品市场在2023年迎来复苏，预计将实现12%的同比增长，但整体规模仍稍逊色于2021年水平。长远来看，中国奢侈品消费的基本面依然强劲，但近期存在一些不确定因素。2024年中国内地奢侈品市场预计将取得中等个位数增长。2017至2021年，中国内地奢侈品市场在5年内增长两倍，但增长势头在2022年停止，市场销售额出现了两位数的下降。2022年12月初，社会和经济活动复苏，也带动中国内地奢侈品市场在2023年一改上一年的颓势，实现反弹，预计全年销售额同比增长12%左右（图1）。?2023?01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000201112131415161718192023E2221CAGR202223E12%5%CAGR40%CAGR(1%)CAGR2023?2021?2021?图1：2023年中国内地奢侈品市场经历了经济环境下行和海外消费回暖的双重考验，预计销售额将增长12%左右，尚未完全恢复至2021年水准2023年中国奢侈品市场：复苏和过渡之年22023年奢侈品市场犹如坐上了过山车，在上半年，尤其是第二季度取得强势反弹（图2），但在下半年发展势头却大幅减弱。上半年的强势增长主要是因为2022年第二季度市场表现不佳，基数较低，而下半年表现较弱的部分原因是消费者信心下滑以及上一年第三季度销售额基数较高。另外，2022年12月销售额基数较低，因此，预计2023年12月市场将再度实现强势反弹。?2023?50%1015%2023?3035%(5)(10)%1015%4030201001020?“?”?2022?2023?VIC?图2：2023年奢侈品市场犹如坐上了过山车，在上半年，尤其是第二季度取得强势反弹，但在下半年发展势头却大幅减弱2023年中国奢侈品市场：复苏和过渡之年3所有奢侈品类均迎来反弹。美妆品类表现稳健，同比增长8%左右，其中香水和彩妆两大子品类涨势尤为强劲（图3）；时装和生活方式、皮具和珠宝品类同比增长10%20%，复苏态势良好，其中皮具表现稍弱于其他两大品类，主要是因为购物者消费多集中于价格较低的箱包；腕表品类复苏势头最弱（同比增长510%），各品牌表现参差不齐。?2023?%?2025%4045%4550%5060%3035%510%1520%1015%1520%8%(6)%?202020212021202220222023E?(15)(20)%(10)(15)%(10)(15)%(20)(25)%?图3：所有奢侈品类均迎来反弹，美妆、时装和生活方式、珠宝、皮具涨势明显，腕表依然落后于其他品类2023年中国奢侈品市场：复苏和过渡之年42022年，商场客流量减少，推高了品牌收入中VIC客户的集中度。2023年，VIC消费者和非VIC消费者共同推动商场客流量大幅回升。不过需要说明的是，非VIC消费者的转换率和人均消费有所下滑，而VIC消费者在这两项指标上均保持稳健。受疫情影响的还有海南免税商店，2022年海南免税销售额下跌了30%左右。2023年，国内旅游复苏，大批游客回归，带动销售回暖，同时海南省颁布措施刺激消费。在双重因素的作用下，海南免税销售额实现25%左右的同比增长，但仍未恢复至2021年水准（图4）。此外，在免税店购物的人数增长幅度落后于游客数量增长，表明转换率有所降低。同时购物者人均消费也下降了超过25%。这两大指标缩水的潜在原因包括折扣力度减弱、代购活动减少以及消费者理性程度提高。?2021?CAGR182120182122 2223E1920212223E36%(11)%11%70%(29)%25%39%(13)%12%6%6%8%11%9%10%图4：随着国内旅游恢复以及海南省颁布措施刺激奢侈品消费，海南免税奢侈品销售额在2023年有所反弹2023年中国奢侈品市场：复苏和过渡之年5综上所述，虽然中国奢侈品市场在2023年实现了两位数的增长，但距离2021年的水准尚有一点距离，这主要是因为消费者信心减弱、整体经济复苏不如预期以及越来越多的内地消费者重新选择出国购买奢侈品。不同品牌之间增长势头差异明显：约一半的头部品牌以及多个小众品牌的销售额已经恢复至2021年水准。成功品牌仰仗的秘诀包括以下几个要素：在经济环境不确定的情况下，消费者更看重奢侈品的长期保值能力，因此，拥有常青款商品的品牌表现优于主打季节款商品的品牌。VIC客户在不确定的经济环境下具有更强的消费韧性，因此VIC客户集中度较高的品牌表现更好。大品牌拥有更好的能力和资源优势，能够举办高质量的营销活动，提供优质的店内服务，因此表现更优。一些小众品牌凭借持续多年稳定的投资加深了品牌吸引力，让更多消费者渴望拥有这些品牌，从而取得成功。我们在今年的研究中探索了两大显著趋势以及它们对奢侈品市场增长前景的影响：1）海外奢侈品消费；2）代购市场趋势1：海外奢侈品消费疫情前，中国内地消费者的奢侈品消费有1/3来自中国内地，剩下的则来自海外。2021至2022年，中国内地市场的占比飙升至90%以上。随着出境游逐步回暖，我们预计2023年中国内地市场占内地消费者奢侈品消费的比例将回落至70%左右（图5）。根据预测，在游客数量回升、人均消费提高双重因素的推动下，2023年中国内地游客在欧洲和亚洲的奢侈品消费分别恢复到2019年疫情前40%和65%的水平。有很多因素导致出境游并未完全恢复，其中出境旅游和住宿成本提高是尤为关键的一点。大多数中高收入消费者选择距离更近、成本更低的目的地，尤其是日本等本国货币相对较弱的国家或地区。这也是前往欧洲的内地游客数量恢复较慢的原因。2023年中国奢侈品市场：复苏和过渡之年6中国内地和海外市场之间的商品价差是促成海外消费回暖的重要因素。一项对中国内地、欧洲和亚洲市场主要SKU的抽查显示，奢侈时装和皮具在中国内地的价格明显高于出境游首选目的地的价格，这样的价差与2022年相比几乎没有变化，吸引内地消费者去海外购买奢侈品（图6）。?2023?30%?3050%?2024?100%757927638833806040202015201920212023E?2023?2019?40%65%?0图5：2021年，内地奢侈品消费占比达到峰值，但随着出境旅游逐步恢复，内地消费占比有所下降2023年中国奢侈品市场：复苏和过渡之年7?35?3?SKU?1:7.7?1:8.1?2022?12?(?2023?12?11?)?1?100%图8：专业性更高的新型代购模式开始崭露头角，尤其是在时装和皮具领域，GMV已经达到可观的规模在美妆代购限制增多的同时，专业性更高的新型代购模式开始展露头角，尤其是在时装和皮具领域。根据Re-Hub的追踪研究，中国内地代购业务逐步专业化，代购机构能够通过批发渠道，以低价从海外市场拿到商品。同时，这些代购机构采用平台化方法，为消费者带来丰富、保真的购物选择。在Re-Hub追踪的代购渠道上，奢侈品价格比品牌中国内地官方价格低0%40%不等（图8）。价格差距往往取决于奢侈品牌全球批发渠道的规模及控制力度。以时装和皮具为例，对于在海外没有建立批发渠道或者对海外批发渠道加以严格控制的品牌来说，这些平台上的代购销售额相当于中国内地官方渠道营收的1020%，但是如果品牌在海外有一定规模的批发渠道且缺乏控制，其在这些渠道的代购销售额可以去到中国内地官方渠道营收的6070%甚至更多。根据Re-Hub数据，近几年来（包括2023年），其中一些平台的代购奢侈品销售额能够取得两位数的年均增幅。2023年中国奢侈品市场：复苏和过渡之年10展望未来我们认为，2023年是过渡的一年，中国奢侈品市场在经历三年疫情后开始重新回到正常的增长路径。长远来看，中国奢侈品消费的基本面依然强劲，但是，短期内，消费者信心恢复速度、海外奢侈品消费增长速度等方面仍然存在一些不确定因素。2023年的趋势大部分将在2024年延续或放大，我们预计2024年中国内地奢侈品市场将取得中等个位数增长。随着出境旅游加速回暖，海外奢侈品消费将继续复苏。2024年出境旅游能够恢复到什么水平主要取决于经济复苏情况以及旅行和住宿成本的变化。多家旅行社和机构预测，中国内地出境游客数量有望在2024年中后期完全恢复1，香港和日本等国家和地区将成为首选目的地。因此，我们预计中国内地消费者海外奢侈品消费将延续反弹之势，尤其是在亚洲市场。对于奢侈品牌来说，全球统一的定价策略仍是将中国内地消费者拉回内地市场的关键。中国高净值人群的可投资资产总额预计将以两位数的速度增长2。这类人群是中国内地奢侈品销售增长的主要推动力量，尽管他们更有可能扩大海外消费的占比。2023年，中高收入消费者变得更理性，在购物时也更加精挑细选。这类人群的消费信心可能需要一段时间才能得到恢复，对品牌销量和人均消费额都会产生影响。年轻的入门级消费者对入门级奢侈品的消费力保持稳健，仍然是奢侈品重要的消费者群体之一。不过值得注意的是这类消费者人均消费额相比其他人群会更低，且他们比其他人群更加青睐线上渠道。我们预计除了少数在2023年取得显著增长的头部奢侈品牌外，大多数品牌将收紧实体店版图扩张步伐，将更多的精力放到优化业务布局和提高同店坪效上。2025年海南将实现全岛封关，其购物环境也将逐步成熟，吸引更多不同的消费人群，提高奢侈品牌在海南投资的兴趣。代购市场不太可能骤然遇冷，其发展速度取决于品牌对其海外批发渠道的控制力度。长远来看，中国经济增长速度虽然相比以前有所减慢，但总体仍然可观且逐步趋稳。根据行业预计，未来几年中国实际GDP增长率将达到45%，为奢侈品行业创造一个巨大的增量市场。2023年，即使不考虑代购，中国内地消费者占全球奢侈品消费总量比例预计达到2224%左右，中国内地市场也能占到全球奢侈品消费总量的16%左右。预计到2030年，中国将成为全球领先的奢侈品市场之一，中国内地消费者占全球奢侈品消费总量的比例将增长至3540%，内地市场的占比将提升至2426%。中国奢侈品市场将继续致力于打造一流的零售场所、出众的消费体验、成熟的客户服务、强大的活动策划和执行体系、多样化的数字环境，同时发展必要能力，培养关键人才，满足内地消费者不断提高的期望，为全球奢侈品行业树立标杆和典范。1 世界旅游业理事会；世邦魏理仕；携程2 招商银行2023中国私人财富报告Bold ideas.Bold teams.Extraordinary results.贝恩公司是一家全球性咨询公司，致力于帮助世界各地有雄心、以变革为导向的商业领袖共同定义未来 目前，贝恩公司在全球40个国家设有65个分公司，我们与客户并肩工作，拥有共同的目标：取得超越对手的非凡业绩，重新定义客户所在的行业。凭借度身订制的整合性专业能力，配以精心打造的数字创新生态系统，我们为客户提供更好、更快和更持久的业绩结果。自1973年成立以来，我们根据客户的业绩来衡量自己的成功。我们在业内享有良好的客户拥护度。是什么使我们在竞争激烈的咨询行业中脱颖而出贝恩公司坚信管理咨询公司发挥的作用不应局限于提供建议方案的范畴。我们置身客户立场思考问题，专注于建议方案的落地。我们基于执行效果的收费模式有助于确保客户与贝恩的利益捆绑，通过与客户通力合作，以发掘客户的最大潜力。我们的战略落地/变革管理（Results Delivery）流程协助客户发展自身的能力，而我们的“真北”（True North）价值观指导我们始终致力于为我们的客户、员工和社会实现目标。贝恩公司大中华区20世纪90年代初，贝恩公司进入中国，是较早进入中国市场的全球咨询公司之一。目前在北京、上海和香港设有三个分公司，大中华区员工人数近400人。多年来，凭借对中国本地市场的了解和在全球其他地区积累的丰富经验，我们持续为不同行业的跨国公司和中国本土企业提供咨询服务，度身订制企业策略和解决方案。欲了解更多信息，请查询 或关注微信号:Chinas luxury market experienced a strong rebound in 2023 after a decline caused by Covid-19 in 2022.However,the recovery was tempered by the current economic climate and the re-start of overseas shopping.As the market transitions to a normalized post-Covid growth phase,uncertainties remain regarding the speed at which consumer confidence will resume and the extent to which luxury shopping will return overseas.2023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Year of Recovery and TransitionCopyright 2023 Bain&Company,Inc.All rights reserved.Authors and acknowledgmentsBruno Lannes is a senior partner with Bain&Companys Consumer Products and Retail practices and is based in Shanghai.You can contact him at .Weiwei Xing is a partner with Bain&Companys Consumer Products and Retail practices in Greater China and is based in Hong Kong.You can contact her at .The authors are grateful for all those who contributed to this report,especially Kate Liu,a senior manager in Bains Shanghai office,and Lucy Xing,an associate consultant in Bains Beijing office.2023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Year of Recovery and Transition1At a GlanceIn 2023,Chinas luxury market saw a 12%yearly increase,recovering from the previous years decline due to Covid-19,but landing slightly below 2021s record levelWhile Chinas long-term fundamentals for luxury consumption remain robust,there are near-term uncertainties.It is projected that Chinas luxury market will experience mid-single-digit growth in 2024Over the span of five years,from 2017 to 2021,Chinas luxury market tripled in size.However,the boom came to an end in 2022 due to the impact of Covid-19,resulting in a double-digit decline.The lifting of Covid restrictions in December 2022 paved the way for the resumption of social and economic activities in 2023.Consequently,the market witnessed a significant rebound,with an estimated year-on-year growth of 12%(see Figure 1).Source:Bain-Altagamma 2023 Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor;Bain analysisMainland China personal luxury market(B RMB)0100200300400500201112131415161718192023E2221CAGR202223E12%5%CAGR40%CAGR(1%)CAGRCOVID restrictions were lifted at the end of 2022,leading to social and economic activities resumption in 2023Chinas luxury market has not fully recovered to its 2021 level,primarily because of the current economic environment and overseas luxury shoppingThere are significant growth differences across brands:about half of the leading brands have recovered their 2021 sales levels,along with multiple niche brands Figure 1:The Mainland China luxury market is to grow 12%in 2023,not fully back to 2021 level,be-cause of current economic environment and overseas luxury shopping2023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Year of Recovery and Transition2The year 2023 presented a stark contrast in performance,with a strong rebound in the first half(H1)followed by a more subdued second half(H2)(see Figure 2).The robust performance in H1 can be attributed to the low base created by the lockdowns in the second quarter of 2022,which set the stage for a significant rebound.However,H2 witnessed weaker growth,primarily driven by a decline in consumer sentiment and a high comparable base in the third quarter.It is expected that December will experience a strong rebound,as there was limited shopping activity in the previous December due to the lifting of restrictions.Source:Bain-Altagamma 2023 Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor;Financial reports;Bain analysis Mainland China personal luxury market year-over-yeargrowth rate by quarter50%1015%2023 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q43035%(5)(10)%1015%4030201001020A year of contrast Significant growth differences across brandsStrong H1 due to Covid-19 in 2022 Q2Weak H2 partly driven by deteriorated consumer sentiment and a high comp.in Q3Consumers stick to iconic brands and productsBrands with higher concentrations of VICs fared betterSome niche brands also achieved stellar performanceCost of doing business is increasing;the larger brands have greater capability and resourcesFigure 2:2023 was a year of contrast where H1 rebounded strongly especially in Q2 while H2 was much more muted2023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Year of Recovery and Transition3All categories within the luxury market in China experienced a rebound in 2023.The beauty category saw solid growth of approximately 8%,driven by strong momentum in fragrances and makeup(see Figure 3).Fashion and Lifestyle,Leather Goods,and Jewelry also rebounded nicely,with growth rates ranging from 10%to 20%.However,the Leather Goods category was slightly softer compared to other categories,as consumers focused more on the lower-price bag segment.The Watches category saw the softest rebound,with growth rates ranging from 5%to 10%,driven by the polarization of brands.Source:Bain-Altagamma 2023 Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor;Financial reports;Bain analysis Mainland China personal luxury market year-over-year growth by category202020212021202220222023E2025%4045%4550%5060%3035%510%1520%1015%1520%8%(6)%BeautyFashion andLifestyleLeatherGoodsJewelryWatches(15)(20)%(10)(15)%(10)(15)%(20)(25)%Beauty saw solid growth,driven by strong momentum in fragrances and makeupFashion and Lifestyle,Leather Goods and Jewelry rebounded nicely,with Leather Goods slightly softer than other categories due to consumers focus on bags lower price segmentWatches saw the softest rebound with contrasted per-formance across brandsFigure 3:All luxury categories rebounded,Beauty,Fashion,Jewelry,and Leather Goods saw strong growth,and Watches continues to lag other categories2023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Year of Recovery and Transition4In 2022,the concentration of Very Important Customers(VICs)increased as a result of reduced shopping mall traffic.However,in 2023,both VIC and non-VIC consumers saw a significant rebound in shopping mall traffic.While conversion and average spending for non-VIC consumers declined,VICs continued to exhibit strong performance in these metrics.Hainan duty-free sales declined by approximately 30%in 2022.In 2023,Hainans duty-free sales grew by about 25%,not back to its 2021 level(see Figure 4).This rebound can be attributed to the return of many tourists,which was a direct result of the recovery in domestic travel and the stimulus measures implemented by the Hainan government.It is worth noting that although the traffic increased,the number of duty-free shoppers did not grow as significantly,indicating a reduced conversion rate.Additionally,the average spending per shopper decreased by more than 25%,likely due to lower discount levels,less Daigou activities,and an increased rationality among consumers.Source:Haikou Custom;Ministry of Culture and Tourism;Literature research;Financial reports;Analyst reports;Bain analysisA strong rebound in tourists drove the rebound in sales,a direct result of domestic travel recovery and the Hainan governments stimulusConversion and aver-age spending de-creased vs.2021,both likely due to lower dis-count levels,less Daigou activities,and increased rationality in consumptionMainland China personal luxury sales(B RMB)Hainan duty-free sales as share of total market:OthersHainan duty-free salesCAGR182120182122 2223E1920212223E36%(11)%11%70%(29)%25%39%(13)%12%6%6%8%11%9%10%Figure 4:Duty-free sales in Hainan rebounded in 2023,benefiting from domestic travel recovery,and Hainan governments stimulus2023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Year of Recovery and Transition5To summarize,Chinas luxury market has experienced a double-digit rebound although not yet back to the historical high of 2021.This can be attributed to factors such as low consumer confidence,a slower-than-expected economic recovery,and Chinese consumers return to luxury shopping overseas.When examining the growth differences across brands,it becomes evident that about half of the leading brands,as well as several niche brands,have managed to recover their 2021 sales levels.Several factors have contributed to the success of these brands:Brands with iconic offers over-performed those with seasonal offers as consumers value longer term investment in times of uncertainty.Brands with a higher concentration of Very Important Customers(VICs)have shown greater resilience in the uncertain economic situation.Bigger brands tend to outperform smaller brands due to more resources and stronger capabilities.This scale advantage enables them to execute high-quality marketing events and provide exceptional in-store services.Niche brands that have consistently invested in building brand desirability over multiple years have experienced success.This year,our research explores two significant trends and their impact on the luxury markets growth outlook.They are:i)luxury shopping overseas,and ii)the Daigou marketTrend 1:Luxury shopping overseasPrior to the Covid-19 pandemic,approximately one-third of mainland Chinese luxury spending took place within mainland China,while the majority occurred outside mainland.However,due to closed borders,the ratio shifted dramatically to over 90%for both 2021 and 2022.As Chinese overseas tourism progressively resumed throughout the year,we estimated that in 2023 around 70%of mainland Chinese luxury spending happened within the mainland(see Figure 5).The recovery of Chinese tourists luxury spending in Europe and Asia has been significant.Mainland Chinese spending abroad in 2023 recovered to 40%of 2019 level in Europe and 65%in Asia.This recovery can be attributed to a combination of increased traffic and higher average spending compared to pre-Covid levels.Various factors have contributed to this partial recovery,including increased traveling and lodging costs abroad.European tourism has seen a slower recovery,as many