AReallyInconvenientTruth完整.ppt

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,AReallyInconvenientTruth完整PPT讲座,An Inconvenient Truth,Dan MillerManaging DirectorThe Roda Groupdan,A Really,Inspired by a talk at,TED,2008,by,Kevin J.Surace,CEO,Serious Materials,UN IPCC,Policy makers and the public rely on information from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,The latest(2007)IPCC reports show that climate change will cause dire impacts on humanity,But because of time constraints,political influence,and consensus requirements,the IPCC reports reflect a,best-case analysis,of climate change,We will consider the,expected case,And show that the IPCC models are too conservative,Bell Curve of Possible Outcomes,IPCC,Biblical,Game Over,Models,IPCC,Discontinuous,Discontinuities are common throughout nature,H,2,O,31F 32F 33F,Liquid,Solid,Actual Arctic Melt vs IPCC Models,0,100,000,200,000,300,000,400,000,500,000,600,000,Age(yr BP),300,500,400,600,180,200,220,240,260,280,CO,2,Concentration,CO,2,ppmv,0,100,000,200,000,300,000,400,000,500,000,600,000,Age(yr BP),300,500,400,600,180,200,220,240,260,280,Temp.in F,CO,2,Concentration,Projected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel Burning,CO,2,ppmv,0,100,000,200,000,300,000,400,000,500,000,600,000,Age(yr BP),300,500,400,600,180,200,220,240,260,280,Temp.in F,CO,2,Concentration,Todays CO,2,Concentration,Projected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel Burning,CO,2,ppmv,0,100,000,200,000,300,000,400,000,500,000,600,000,Age(yr BP),300,500,400,600,180,200,220,240,260,280,Temp.in F,CO,2,Concentration,After 45 More Years of current energy use patterns,Todays CO,2,Concentration,CO,2,ppmv,IPCC Climate Model,MIT Temperature Study,Danger,2009 MIT Study:,95%chance,thatBusiness-as-usual”,temperature increase will,exceed,3.5C(6.3F)in 2095,MIT Temperature Study,Danger,and a,50%chance,that temperature will,exceed,5C(9F)!,MIT Temperature Study,Temperature Impact Analogy,+2C,20 mph,Temperature Impact Analogy,+4C,40 mph,Temperature Impact Analogy,+6C,60 mph,Greenland Ice,1990s:Lost 90M acre feet/yr,2006:Lost 180M acre feet/yr,Acceleration continues,If all of Greenland collapse:,Oceans rise 20+feet,If,all,ice sheets collapse:,Oceans rise 280 feet,IPCC Models do not consider ice sheet collapse,IPCC:2 foot rise by 2100,Jim Hansen,NASA Climate Scientist:“Certain”it will be 6+feet,Source:NASA,12,000 years old,100 square miles,650 feet thick,Models said would last 10,000 years,2002:,Broke up in 3 days,Was a cork holding back land-based ice,Models were wrong,Larson-B Ice ShelfAntarctica,Pine Island&Thwaites GlaciersAntarctica,In place for 20 million years,Now melting&thinning at record pace,1995:70M acre feet/year,2006:220M acre feet/year,If they collapse:,Sea rises 6 feet and speeds collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet,NASA:Weak underbelly in recent radar images,British Antarctic Survey:,“,Thwaites,in danger of imminent collapse,”,No collapse models exist in IPCC,so just model slow melt over time,West Antarctic Ice Sheet,Thwaites,is the cork holding it back,If West Antarctic sheet collapses,sea rise is another,18 feet,IPCC Models:None,Oceans Will Rise,Based on,Actual Historical Data,Not Models,CO,2,PPM,FEET,North America,85 Million Years Ago,Amazon Rainsor Not?,Warming shifts rain away from Amazon,Multiple droughts taking their toll,3-5 years of drought kills most trees,Trees die,forest fires rage,CO,2,is released,Positive feedback loop,IPCC Models:Not considered in base models,Permafrost,Stores methane in Siberia and other Arctic regions,Melting now and already releasing 50M tons per year,Equivalent to 1B Tons of CO,2,Accelerating since avg.temp 32F now,Entire region on verge of collapse,Contains twice as much CO,2,as the,entire atmosphere!,This is a near-term tipping point,Will overwhelm human actions to reduce CO,2,emissions,IPCC Models:Assumes no collapse,Methane Release from Lake,Our Oceans,Since 1850 absorbed 130B tons CO,2,from humans,Getting warmer and more acidic so will absorb less CO,2,in the future,More CO,2,changes/reduces organisms,They die,resulting in reduction in ocean CO,2,sink,Eventually,ocean could become a source of CO,2,IPCC Models:Not included,Oceans Broke 55M Years Ago,Methane Clathrates(frozen)at ocean floor,Ocean temperatures rose a few degrees,Clathrates shattered,Released up to 10 Trillion Tons Methane,Global temp rose 18F rapidly,Mass extinctions,Also Tsunamis,IPCC Models:Not included,Fact:The China Syndrome,Adding 12 coal plants per week,Surpassed US in CO,2,Northern China(Mfg central):No sunever,Stern Review for British Govt,Assumes worst case scenarios,Sea rise could be 15-20 feet in a few decades,Florida,NYC,London,Tokyounderwater,1B displaced,sick,dead,Flooding,famine and disease,Massive water&crop shortages worldwide,$20T+in worldwide damages,(Mitigation estimated at$1T),Wars over food and water,Choices,To Act or Not to Act:4 Outcomes,No Climate Change,Yes Climate Change,We Act,We Do NOT Act,Waste Money,Invent new technology,Reduce reliance on oil,Spend Money,Save 1B Lives,Invent new technology,Reduce reliance on oil,Life goes on,Billions die,Large wars,Horrible famine and drought,End of world as we know it,Total economic collapse,Concept from:Estimated Costs,A)Mitigation now:Reduce GDP by 0.6%to 3%,-or-,B)Do Nothing:Total Economic Collapse,?,?,?,$,$,$,0,Why Dont We Act?Failure of the“Risk Thermostat”,We respond strongest,to threats that are:,Climate Change is:,Visible,Invisible,With historical precedent,Unprecedented,Immediate,Drawn out,With simple causality,With complex causality,Caused by another“tribe”,Caused by all of us,Have direct personal impacts,Unpredictable&indirect impacts,Denial Strategies,Displaced commitment,“I protect the environment in other ways”,Condemn the accuser,“You have no right to challenge me”,Denial of responsibility,“I am not the main cause of this problem”,Rejection of blame,“I have done nothing wrong”,Ignorance,“I didnt know”,Powerlessness,“I cant make any difference”,Fabricated constraints,“There are too many impediments”,After the flood,“Society is corrupt”,Comfort,“Its too hard for me to change my behavior”,Risks to Your Business,Decline in demand for carbon-intensive products and services,Climate change impacts on facilities,employees,suppliers,and customers,Extreme weather,drought,pandemic,war,sea level rise,Disruption of“optimized”systems,Watch out for“Just-in-time”and“global supply chain”,Build,robustness,into every process and product,There will be many unforeseen impacts,Must plan for the unexpected,What to Do?,What Can You Do?,Ask your children for forgiveness,Buy a fuel-efficient car,Eat less beef,Change your light bulbs,wear a sweater,etc.,Talk to your family,friends,and colleagues,Get your company to“Go Green”,Talk to your elected leaders,What Can Our Country Do?,Implement a Cap&Trade system or tax for CO,2,Mandatory energy efficiency standards,Ban new coal-fired power plants,Phase out existing coal-fired plants,Eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels,Give subsidies&incentives for clean energy,Increase energy/climate research spending 100 x,What Can Our Country Do?,(Cont.),Phase out beef,Prepare for extreme weather,drought,global instability,agriculture impacts,sea level rise,Research geo-engineering remedies,Support global family planning,Support&sign an aggressive treaty in Copenhagen in 2009(Kyoto follow-on),Geo-Engineering,Intentional planet-wide changes meant to mitigate impacts of global warming,Probably our only hope because,at this point,reducing emissions alone wont be enough,But we still need to dramatically reduce emissions!,Like chemotherapy,many geo-engineering solutions have bad side-effects,Geo-Engineering Examples,Block Sunlight,Put smoke in the upper atmosphere or use ships to create low-level clouds,Stop the permafrost and Greenland from melting,Put Iron in the Ocean,Grows algae,which eat CO,2,then die and sink to bottom,Turn Plants into Biochar,Turns into solid carbon instead of CO,2,Put back on ground.helps plants grow,Reforest the Planet,Build Large Scale Carbon Capture and Storage Systems,Suck CO,2,directly out of the air&pump it underground,Some Good News,A U.S.“Cap&Trade”law will be passed soon,Everything follows from this,Will require emission reductions of 80-90%by 2050,Europe already doing this,China and India not yet,but they wont until we do,Transitioning to a low-carbon world is the biggest economic opportunity ever!,Further Reading,The Weather Makers,by Tim Flannery,With Speed and Violence,by Fred Pearce,Six Degrees,by Mark Lynas,Climate Code Red,by Spratt&Sutton,(pdf at ClimateCodeR),For More Information,Please visit:,www.ClimatePlace.org,Please think,Dan Miller,www.ClimatePlace.org,