中印缅的关系.doc

India-Myanmar-China relations
By Col R Hariharan (retd.)
Since the World War II, Myanmar better known the world over as Burma, had never attracted so much international attention as now. Actually, there are reasons both global and local for this development. The rise of China as a major global economic power and the unlocking of India's potential to grow as yet another global economic power are redefining international relationships in South and Southeast Asia. Myanmar is now viewed as a critical area of interest to China and India. It is of special interest to the U.S. which would like to check the over riding influence of China in this region while cruising on its journey to the status of a contending global power.
While China has developed close political, military and economic relations with Myanmar, India is in the process of following suite. A study of India-Myanmar and Sino-Myanmar relations offer some interesting aspects of how they are adopting the geo-strategic setting and political environment of the region to their advantage.
Geo-strategic reality
Myanmar shares common borders with five countries: Bangladesh 193 km, China 2,185 km, India 1,463 km, Laos 235 km, and Thailand 1,800 km. India dominates Myanmar's western borders, just as China dominates its northeastern borders. Thailand borders the entire eastern part of Myanmar except for narrow strip that borders Laos. Thailand. And this makes Myanmar a strategic land bridge linking South, and Southeast Asia.
As a littoral of the Indian Ocean, Myanmar's strategic value further increases. Its 1930 km long coastline dominates the eastern arch of the Bay of Bengal, leaning on to the Malacca Strait. Thus Myanmar provides China the shortest land and sea access to South Asia , just as it provides convenient external land and sea communication options to India's landlocked northeastern states. Myanmar's ocean boundaries are barely 30 km from the Andaman Islands increasing its maritime security potentia.
Both sides of the regions bordering Myanmar are mostly populated by ethnic communities with their own distinct ethnic, religious and linguistic identities from the rest of the countries.
However, the majority Burmese population, who are Buddhists, lives in the fertile and more developed southern Myanmar with easier access from China. Thus the northern tribal regions of Myanmar have suffered neglect and remain under developed.
This has given rise to a sense of alienation among ethnic tribes, many of who had waged relentless wars for their independence. Notable among them are the Nagas, Kachins and Chins bordering India, Arakanese bordering Bangladesh, Lisus, Kachins and Shans bordering China, and the Shans and Karens bordering Thailand. Thus ethnic militancy has always affected Mynamar's democratic governance, destabilizing the country.
Most of Myanmar's mountain ranges and major river systems run north-south. This makes construction of road communication and movement from India's east to Myanmar against the grain of the country difficult. At the same time it facilitates easier movement from the Chinese border in the northeast, and provides for natural flow of traffic. The Chinese have used this favorable terrain configuration to build road from the Chinese border to Mandalay in the heart of Myanmar and onward to the coast. As Myanmar provides the shortest access from mainland China to India's eastern borders these developments have special strategic significance.
India's northeastern states bordering Myanmar are not as well developed as Yunnan province of China bordering Myanmar in the northeast. China has found it useful to link the development of Yunnan region jointly with Myanmar and Laos. Thus the two-way border trade and commerce is qualitatively and quantitatively better with China than with India.
India-Myanmar relations
India-Myanmar relations have a long history of substantive political, cultural, religious and social interaction. During the British colonial period Myanmar was administered as a part of British India till 1935. Till the end of the Second World War, Indian traders, professionals and administrators had followed the British to work in Myanmar. The Indian freedom movement inspired the freedom struggle in Myanmar. Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru and Aung San, who spearheaded the freedom struggle, had built close personal relationship between them.
After Burma became independent in 1948, the fledgling democracy led by Prime Minister U Nu sought the advice and counsel of Pandit Nehru on more than one occasion. They built a close rapport and the two countries benefited from this relationship.
However, Burma's democratic experience from 1948 to 62 was never a success. Political rivalry, factionalism, and corruption coupled with the ever growing ethnic and communist insurgencies made democratic rule ineffective. However, found ret , t for the first decade and a half when democracy struggled to articulate itself, the Burma-India relationship drifted apart.
Gen Ne Win, the Burmese army chief, who seized power and ruled the country from 1962 to 88, was essentially a xenophobic leader. In the words of JN Dixit, India's former Foreign Secretary, Ne Win's rule was characterized by "correct but not close relations" between India and Burma. However, India's reservations about the Myanmar military regime's violent suppression of the peoples' movement for democracy from 1988 onwards and the incarceration of Aung San Suu Kyi soured the relationship between 1989 and 1992. India also provided sanctuary and financial assistance to fleeing pro-democracy activists.
In a marked departure from the past, India's Myanmar policy had been undergoing a radical change since 1992. The new policy focused purely on India's strategic and economic considerations based on pragmatic grounds. Myanmar bordered India's sensitive northeastern states. Myanmar's northern borders abutting China also constituted a tri junction of India's eastern border. It forms a strategic bridge between South Asia and South East Asia making it a vital area of influence for India's security. There had been a phenomenal growth in Chinese influence in Myanmar particularly after the western nations slapped a ban on sale of arms to Myanmar in 1989. This was a matter of serious concern as it brought the threat from Chinese mainland nearer home to the northeast. Moreover, Myanmar's support was considered essential for curbing drug traffic, and Myanmar based insurgency threats to India's northeast.
Since then the successive Indian Government, have embarked upon building a broad based relationship with Myanmar touching upon defence, trade and commerce, energy sector, and developmental assistance and confidence building with the top level. While Myanmar welcomed India's interest and expressed its readiness to cooperate with India on strategic issues and in increasing economic and technological cooperation in all spheres, the regime cautioned against Indian interference in its internal affairs relating to release of Aung San Suu Kyi and restoration of democracy. The military junta reacted adversely when India conferred the Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding Aung San Suu Kyi in 1995. Though this clouded the relationship for a while, it Y made. This further e military regime became suspicious of India ganging up with the West against the regime. As a result India has jettisoned its support for the democratic movement in Myanmar. It has progressively withdrawn the succor provided to the Myanmar leaders who had taken refuge in India.
India's policy considerations
After liberalisation of Indian economy from 1992 onwards, India started looking at the lucrative markets of ASEAN region as part of the 'Look East Policy'. Following the admission of Myanmar as a member of the ASEAN in 1996 its importance in furthering India's trade with ASEAN increased.
Development of the seven Northeastern states has remained stagnant resulting in the alienation of sections of society and encouraging the growth of insurgency. Development of land and sea links for through Myanmar could end their isolation and wean them away from insurgency. Some of the insurgent groups like the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) and the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) operate from sanctuaries in Myanmar. Better relations and coordination with the regime in Myanmar could put an end to the operation of such insurgencies. Myanmar's abundant reserves of natural gas waiting to be exploited, could help India in meeting its ever increasing demand for energy resources as the economy keeps growing at a fast pace.
Growth of India-Myanmar relations
In keeping with these considerations, India has been focusing on giving substance to India-Myanmar relationship with specific actions. There have been a number of high level visits between the leaders of the two countries. Sr Gen Than Shwe, Myanmar's head of state, visited India in October 2004. President APJ Abdul Kalam visited Yangon in March 2006. Visits of ministers and chiefs of armed forces from both countries have also taken place. There had been regular meetings at the ministerial level to monitor the progress of various projects involving India in Myanmar.
To improve connectivity with Myanmar, India has taken up a number of road and port construction projects. India has constructed the 160-km Tamu-Kalewa-Kalemyo road in Myanmar from Manipur border. It is also assisting in the proposed trilateral highway project to connect Moreh in Manipur to Mae Sot in Thailand via Bagan in Myanmar. India's Kaladan multi-modal transit transport facility is aimed at improving linkage between Indian ports on the eastern seaboard and Sittwe port in Myanmar. This would enable transportation by river transport and road to Mizoram providing an alternate route for transport of goods to northeast India. A proposal to build a rail link from Jiribaum in Assam to Hanoi in Vietnam through Myanmar is also on the cards.
India is slowly becoming a regular supplier of arms to Myanmar, joining the ranks of China, Russia and Ukraine. Initially, India had supplied low tech arms and armaments, including 105 mm guns, T-55 tanks, light helicopters, transport planes, artillery ammunition and some naval craft. However, there had been a progressive up gradation of these exports. All the three chiefs of India's armed forces have visited Myanmar for building better rapport. India's latest defence aid package includes counterinsurgency helicopters, avionics upgrades for Myanmar air force's Russian and Chinese-made fighter planes, and naval surveillance aircraft.
India's trade with Myanmar is growing at a fast clip. It is fourth largest trading partner with its investment reaching $35.08 million last year. In 2006-2007, India-Myanmar trade was estimated at $ 650 million falling short of the target of $ one billion. (In 2004-2005, China-Myanmar trade was $1.145 billion as against India's figure of $ 341.40 million in 2004-05.) India is taking steps such as extending airlines, land and sea routes to strengthen trade links with Myanmar. It is also cooperating with Myanmar in areas like agriculture, telecommunications, and oil and gas sectors etc.
India's policy of building closer relations with the military regime in Myanmar has drawn flak both at home and abroad. This was considered a betrayal of India's ethos. During a recent visit to Myanmar on January 19, 2007, India's External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee made clear the country's "hands off" policy on the struggle for restoration of democracy going on in Myanmar. He said that India had to deal with governments "as they exist ... We are not interested in exporting our own ideology. We are a democracy and we would like democracy to flourish everywhere. But this is for every country to decide for itself."
Chinese influence
China-Myanmar relations have a long history. Modern Myanmar's relations with China can be divided conveniently into four periods: 1949-1961 democratic rule, 1962-1988 Ne Win rule, and 1989-to date: Than Shwe rule.
In the period of democratic rule, the emerging China found a friendly regime in Burma under Prime Minister U Nu. Independent Burma was one of the first countries to recognise the Peoples Republic of China in December 1949. The two countries signed the first trade agreement in 1954 and a boundary treaty in 1960. However, China's preoccupation with its own consolidation and growth restricted the relationship. Yet in1961 armies of both countries launched joint operations to evict Kuomintang troops from parts of Shan state in Myanmar.
After Ne Win seized power in 1962, the relations between the two countries took a nosedive and the cadres of Communist Party of Burma (CPB) sought refuge in China. For the next six years, Sino-Myanmar relations had troubled times with periodic persecution of ethnic Chinese and anti-Chinese riots in Myanmar. Between 1968 and 1973 Chinese gave full support to the CPB insurgents to fight the military junta successfully. The Chinese also provided similar aid to Kachin, Shan rebels and Naga militants during this period. The CPB organised a number of insurgent groups to operate jointly against the military regime. However, Ne Win's China visit in 1975 somewhat eased the relations. It warmed up in 1979 when China signed a $ 63 million aid agreement for various projects in Myanmar.
The year 1988 was a turbulent period both in China with the Tian An Mien square agitation and the 8888 Movement of students in Myanmar. Perhaps this generated some kindred spirit in the regimes in both the countries. China utilized the opportunity offered by the international isolation of Myanmar after the military regime crushed the people's upsurge in 1988. In 1989, China formally advised CPB to retire in keeping with its revised policy to stop assisting insurgents of other countries. This crucial decision helped the military junta to end the Communist insurgency and cripple Kachin and Shan insurgencies to a large extent.
Since then China has stepped its influence through economic, military and development assistance. China has been providing military hardware to Myanmar to overcome international sanctions and help Tatmadaw to grow in strength.. Till recently almost 80 per cent of Myanmar's defence equipment was of Chinese origin. China has considerable economic influence in a number of fields, including supply of electricity and trade and commerce.
The grateful military junta has now raised China to the status of 'Elder Brother'. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, had summed up China's Myanmar policy in these words: "China supports Myanmar's efforts in maintaining national stability, promoting reconciliation among ethnic groups and expanding foreign relations."
Chinese illegal migration into in the under populated northern areas of Myanmar had been an unreported process for sometime now. According