60张图表看懂2024黄金投资（英）.pdf

1Ronald-Peter StferleMark J.ValekMarch 2024Preview Chartbook of theIn Gold We Trust Report 20242In Our Partners We TrustFor Information on Our Premium Partners:Click Here!3The In Gold We Trust report 2024 will be published on May 17th!To subscribe to the In Gold We Trust report,click here.4ALL SEASONSCRYPTO GOLDDIGITAL&PHYSICAL GOLDIt is our goal to offer investment products for these times of excessive structural debt and negative real interest rates that meet the requirements of the new investment paradigm.In addition to the In Gold We Trust Report the gold standard of gold reports we regularly publish relevant studies,reports and chartbooks on the investment topics of gold,crypto and funds.Join Us on Our Golden Journey!Our FundsRecent AwardsURANIUM RESOURCES INFLATION DIVERSIFIERPublicationsSUBSCRIBE NOWDISCOVER OUR FUNDSACTIVE GOLD5Subscribe to our PublicationsSubscribe to ourMonthly Gold CompassSubscribe to ourBitcoin Compass61.Golds Changing Playbook“This playbook represents more than just our strategies;it represents our dedication,our unity,and our relentless pursuit of victory.”Vince Lombardi7Source:Reuters Eikon,Incrementum AGGold Has Broken Out of Its 4 Year Consolidation!Gold Cup-and-Handle Formation,in USD,01/2000-03/202405001,0001,5002,0002,5002000200420082012201620202024Gold8-100%-75%-50%-25%0%0%100%200%300%400%197019801990200020102020UncategorizedBull MarketBear MarketSource:Nick Laird,Reuters Eikon,Incrementum AGThe History of Golden Bulls and BearsGold Bull/Bear Markets,01/1970-03/2024-29%-70%-20%-48%-25%-29%-45%-21%257%46%99%138%332%297%167%96%9Source:Reuters Eikon,Incrementum AGIs the Decoupling of Gold and Real Yields Temporary or Have We Seen the Start of a New Paradigm?Gold(lhs,log),and US 10Y TIPS(rhs,inverted),01/2006-03/2024-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%10%2.0%3.0%4.0%5001,0002,0004,0002006200820102012201420162018202020222024RecessionGoldUS 10Y TIPS10Source:World Gold Council,Incrementum AGWhile Western Financial Investors Have Been Selling 725 Tonnes via ETFs During the Last 24 MonthsAccumulated Gold ETF Holdings by Region(lhs),in Tonnes,and Gold(rhs),in USD,01/2004-02/202405001,0001,5002,0002,50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,50020042006200820102012201420162018202020222024North AmericaEuropeAsiaOtherGold11Source:World Gold Council,Incrementum AGCentral Bank Demand for Gold Has been Persistently StrongGlobal Central Bank Gold Purchases,in Tonnes,1950-2023-1,500-1,250-1,000-750-500-25002505007501,0001,25019501960197019801990200020102020Net PurchasesNet SalesATH12Source:World Gold Council,Incrementum AGAs The Geopolitical Showdown is Changing the Rules of the GameGlobal Central Bank Gold Purchases,in Tonnes,Q1/2010-Q4/2023-1000100200300400500Q1/2010Q1/2012Q1/2014Q1/2016Q1/2018Q1/2020Q1/2022Net PurchasesNet SalesAverage quarterly purchases after the invasion of Ukraine:291 TonnesAverage quarterly purchases before the invasion of Ukraine:118 Tonnes13Source:Reuters Eikon,Incrementum AGLets Get Physical!Gold Deliveries Remain Above The Long Term AverageCOMEX Gold Deliveries,in Thousands of Troy Ounces,01/2007-02/202401,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000200720092011201320152017201920212023COMEX Gold Deliveries12 Month Average14Golds Share of Total Reserves Keeps Increasing in Emerging MarketsGold Share of Total Central Bank Reserves,Q1/2000-Q3/20230%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%20002003200620092012201520182021Developed MarketsRest of the WorldSource:World Gold Council,Incrementum AG155.365.154.554.072.352.081.420.910.810.730.690.640.610.590.560.530.520.510.490.480.480.460.460.450.320.280.180.170.160.110.110.080123456Source:worldometers.info,World Gold Council,Incrementum AGHigh Consumer Demand Coming,Especially from“The East“Consumer Demand for Gold,Grams per Capita,202316Source:coinmarketcap,World Gold Council,Incrementum AGLiquidity is Still Key:Gold is One of The Most Saleable AssetsAverage Daily Trading Volumes,in USD bn,202318.321.92831.144.5103154161.1162.6252.9050100150200250300BitcoinUK GiltsUS Corporate BondsDE BundsDow Jones(All Stocks)EUR/JPYEUR/GBPUS T-BillsGoldS&P 500(All Stocks)17Source:Reuters Eikon,Incrementum AGGold and Bitcoin Recently Hit New ATHs in USD,Showcasing Their Strength as Sound MoneyBitcoin(lhs),in USD,and Gold(rhs),in USD,01/2011-03/2024 1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,200010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,0002011201320152017201920212023BitcoinGold“Twin Peaks“18Source:World Gold Council,,Reuters Eikon,Incrementum AGBitcoin Is Slowly Catching Up to Gold in Terms of Market CapMarket Cap of Gold and Bitcoin(lhs),in USD bn,and Bitcoin/Gold Market Cap Ratio(rhs),01/2013-03/20240%2%4%6%8%10%12%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,000201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024BitcoinGoldBitcoin/Gold Market Cap Ratio19Source:Reuters Eikon,Incrementum AG*Weekly RebalancingWhat Happens When You Combine Gold and Bitcoin?75%Gold/25%Bitcoin*,and MSCI World Index,1,000=02/2014,02/2014-03/202401,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,00002/201402/201502/201602/201702/201802/201902/202002/202102/202202/202302/202475%Gold/25%BitcoinMSCI World Index202.The Status Quo of Gold“I dont think the question really is what is gold worth,but what are currencies not worth.”Shayne McGuireDirector of Global Research at the Teacher Retirement System of Texas21Source:Reuters Eikon(as of March 20th,2024),Incrementum AGGold Performance Since 2000 in Various CurrenciesAnnual Gold Performance,2000-2024 YTDYearUSDEURGBPAUDCADCNYJPYCHFINRAverage2000-5.3%1.2%2.4%11.2%-1.9%-5.4%5.8%-4.2%1.4%0.6%20012.4%8.4%5.3%12.0%8.8%2.4%18.0%5.5%5.8%7.6%200224.4%5.5%12.3%13.2%22.9%24.4%12.2%3.5%23.7%15.8%200319.6%-0.2%8.0%-10.7%-1.3%19.6%8.1%7.4%13.9%7.2%20045.6%-2.0%-1.7%1.5%-2.0%5.6%0.8%-3.1%0.1%0.5%200518.1%35.2%31.6%25.9%14.1%15.1%35.9%36.3%22.8%26.1%200623.0%10.4%8.1%14.3%23.3%19.0%24.2%14.1%20.7%17.5%200730.9%18.4%29.2%18.0%12.0%22.5%22.5%21.8%16.9%21.4%20085.4%10.0%43.0%30.5%28.7%-1.5%-14.2%-0.8%30.0%14.6%200924.8%21.8%13.0%-1.6%7.9%24.8%27.9%21.1%19.2%17.6%201029.5%38.6%34.2%13.9%22.8%25.1%13.2%16.8%24.8%24.3%201110.2%13.8%10.6%9.9%12.7%5.2%4.5%10.7%30.7%12.0%20127.1%5.0%2.4%5.3%4.2%6.0%20.7%4.5%11.1%7.4%2013-28.0%-30.9%-29.4%-16.1%-23.0%-30.1%-12.6%-29.8%-19.1%-24.3%2014-1.8%11.6%4.4%7.2%7.5%0.7%11.6%9.4%0.2%5.6%2015-10.4%-0.2%-5.3%0.6%6.8%-6.2%-9.9%-9.7%-5.9%-4.4%20168.5%12.1%29.7%9.4%5.3%16.1%5.4%10.3%11.4%12.0%201713.1%-0.9%3.3%4.6%5.9%6.0%9.0%8.3%6.3%6.2%2018-1.5%3.0%4.3%9.0%6.8%4.1%-4.2%-0.8%7.3%3.1%201918.3%21.0%13.8%18.7%12.6%19.7%17.2%16.6%21.3%17.7%202025.0%14.7%21.2%14.1%22.6%17.2%18.8%14.3%28.0%19.5%2021-3.6%3.6%-2.6%2.2%-4.3%-6.1%7.5%-0.6%-1.7%-0.6%2022-0.2%6.0%11.6%6.3%7.0%8.3%13.7%1.1%10.8%7.2%202313.1%9.7%7.4%13.1%10.5%16.3%21.6%2.9%13.7%12.0%2024 YTD5.0%7.2%6.2%9.8%7.6%6.9%12.8%12.5%5.2%8.1%CAGR8.7%8.4%9.8%8.7%8.4%8.1%10.5%6.2%11.7%8.9%22Source:Reuters Eikon(as of March 20th,2024),Incrementum AGGolds Long-Term Performance Remains Stellar Amid Market TurmoilGold(USD)Performance Triangle,in%,2000-2024 YTD Purchased at the End of 20002.427.452.461.090.0133.8206.2222.7302.6421.6474.6515.2342.7334.9289.8323.1378.6371.3457.4596.9571.8570.4657.9696.0200124.448.857.285.6128.3199.0215.1293.1409.3461.1500.8332.3324.7280.7313.2367.3360.3444.3580.5556.0554.6640.1677.3200219.626.449.283.5140.3153.3216.0309.4351.1382.9247.5241.4206.0232.1275.7270.0337.6447.0427.4426.2494.9524.820035.624.753.4100.9111.7164.2242.2277.0303.6190.5185.3155.8177.6214.0209.2265.7357.2340.8339.8397.2422.2200418.145.290.2100.5150.1224.0257.0282.2175.0170.2142.2162.8197.31928246.3332.9317.3316.4370.8394.5200523.061.169.8111.9174.4202.4223.7133.0128.8105.1122.6151.8148.0193.3266.7253.5252.7298.8318.8200630.938.072.2123.1145.8163.189.486.066.781.0104.7101.6138.4198.0187.3186.7224.2240.420075.431.570.487.7101.044.642.027.338.256.354.082.1127.6119.4119.0147.6160.0200824.861.678.190.737.234.820.831.148.346.172.7116.0108.2107.7134.9146.7200929.542.752.810.08.0-3.25.118.917.138.573.166.966.588.297.7201010.218.0-15.1-16.6-25.3-18.9-8.2-9.66.933.628.828.545.352.620117.1-22.9-24.3-32.2-26.4-16.7-18.0-3.021.316.916.731.938.52012-28.0-29.3-36.6-31.2-22.2-23.4-9.413.39.29.023.229.42013-1.8-12.0-4.48.16.525.957.451.751.471.279.82014-10.4-2.710.08.428.260.254.554.174.383.020158.522.820.943.078.872.372.094.4104.2201613.111.431.764.758.858.479.188.12017-1.516.545.640.440.158.466.3201818.347.842.542.260.868.9201925.020.520.336.042.82020-3.6-3.88.814.22021-0.212.818.5202213.118.720235.0200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024YTD Sold at the End of 23Source:World Bank,Reuters Eikon,Incrementum AG*Calculated as gold price versus a nominal GDP-weighted currency basket of the 8 largest DM and 8 largest EM countries(excountries with fixed exchange rate regime)The Incrementum World Gold Price is on a TearGold in USD,and Incrementum World Gold Price*(IWGP),01/1971-03/2024 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,50019711976198119861991199620012006201120162021Gold in USDIWGP24Source:Reuters Eikon,Incrementum AGGold has Returned 9.9%on Average and 7.9%Annualized Since 1970Annual Average Gold Price,in USD(lhs),and yoy(rhs),1970-03/2024-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,20019701975198019851990199520002005201020152020Average Annual Gold PriceGold25Source:Reuters Eikon,Incrementum AGGold vs.FIAT:The Long March to Zero ContinuesVarious Currencies(log),in Gold,100=08/1971,08/1971-03/2024Current Level:USD:1.62EUR:1.82GBP:0.84CHF:7.34JPY:3.700.81.63.16.312.525.050.0100.019711976198119861991199620012006201120162021RecessionUSDEURGBPCHFJPY26Source:USGS,World Gold,Council,Federal Reserve St.Louis,Reuters Eikon,Incrementum AGGold Supply vs.Money Supply=Relative ScarcityGold Stock(Above Ground Gold),in Tonnes,Money Supply(US M2),in USD bn,1910-2023DateGold StockyoyMoney SupplyyoyDateGold StockyoyMoney SupplyyoyDateGold StockyoyMoney SupplyyoyDateGold StockyoyMoney Supplyyoy191035,6262.0%194057,6642.3%9016.3%197090,6951.7%6276.6%2000143,3251.8%4,9256.2%191136,3252.0%194158,7441.9%10314.7%197192,1451.6%71013.4%2001145,9251.8%5,43410.3%191237,0301.9%194259,8641.9%13429.6%197293,5351.5%80213.0%2002148,4751.7%5,7726.2%191337,7241.9%194360,7601.5%16926.0%197394,8851.4%8566.6%2003151,0151.7%6,0675.1%191438,3871.8%26194461,5731.3%19113.3%197496,1351.3%9025.4%2004153,4351.6%6,4185.8%191539,0911.8%3015.4%194562,3351.2%21612.7%197597,3351.2%1,01612.6%2005155,9051.6%6,6824.1%191639,7761.8%3516.3%194663,1951.4%2265.0%197698,5451.2%1,15213.4%2006158,2751.5%7,0725.8%191740,4071.6%41171%194764,0951.4%2385.1%197799,7551.2%1,27010.3%2007160,6251.5%7,4725.7%191840,9851.4%4612.9%194865,0271.5%235-1.4%1978100,9651.2%1,3667.5%2008162,9251.4%8,1929.6%191941,5351.3%5212.7%194965,9911.5%234-0.3%1979102,1751.2%1,4747.9%2009165,4151.5%8,4963.7%192042,0421.2%51-1.4%195066,8701.3%2444.5%1980103,3951.2%1,6008.6%2010168,2461.7%8,8023.6%192142,5401.2%46-10.9%195167,7531.3%2585.6%1981104,6751.2%1,7569.7%2011171,1451.7%9,6609.8%192243,0211.1%5010.5%195268,6211.3%2683.8%1982106,0151.3%1,9068.6%2012174,0571.7%10,4608.3%192343,5751.3%510.4%195369,4851.3%2711.1%1983107,4151.3%2,12411.4%2013177,1961.8%11,0355.5%192444,1671.4%546.3%195470,4501.4%2782.7%1984108,8751.4%2,3068.6%2014180,5711.9%11,6855.9%192544,7581.3%586.9%195571,3971.3%2852.2%1985110,4051.4%2,4928.1%2015183,9451.9%12,3475.7%192645,3601.3%56-2.5%195672,3751.4%2881.3%1986112,0151.5%2,7289.5%2016187,4981.9%13,2137.0%192745,9571.3%571.1%195773,3951.4%286-0.7%1987113,6751.5%2,8263.6%2017191,0481.9%13,8584.9%192846,5601.3%582.6%195874,4451.4%2973.8%1988115,5451.6%2,9885.7%2018194,6931.9%14,3633.6%192947,1691.3%58-0.9%195975,5751.5%2990.6%1989117,5551.7%3,1535.5%2019198,2951.9%15,3216.7%193047,8171.4%54-5.8%196076,7651.6%3124.6%1990119,7351.9%3,2723.8%2020201,7381.7%19,11524.8%193148,5121.5%48-12.3%196177,9951.6%3367.4%1991121,8951.8%3,3723.1%2021205,3091.8%21,54712.7%193249,2661.6%44-7.1%196279,2851.7%3638.1%1992124,1551.9%3,4251.6%2022208,9211.8%21,346-0.9%193350,0591.6%43-3.1%196380,6251.7%3938.4%1993126,4351.8%3,47515%2023212,5821.8%20,827-2.4%193450,9001.7%4915.0%196482,0151.7%4258.0%1994128,6951.8%3,4860.3%193551,8241.8%5818.3%196583,4551.8%4598.1%1995130,9251.7%3,6304.1%193652,8542.0%6714.0%196684,9051.7%4804.6%1996133,2151.7%3,8195.2%193753,9542.1%63-5.8%196786,3251.7%5259.3%1997135,6651.8%4,0335.6%193855,1242.2%689.0%196887,7651.7%5678.0%1998138,1651.8%4,3758.5%193956,3542.2%7713.3%196989,2151.7%5883.7%1999140,7351.9%4,6386.0%273.Silver“You got my heart you got my soulYou got the silver you got the goldYou got the diamonds from the mineWell thats all right,itll buy some time.”“You Got the Silver”,The Rolling Stones28Source:Reuters Eikon(as of March 20th,2024),Incrementum AGSilver Performance Since 2000 in Various CurrenciesAnnual Silver Performance,2000-2024 YTDYearUSDEURGBPAUDCADCNYJPYCHFINRAverage2000-15.0%-9.1%-8.4%0.0%-11.9%-15.0%-5.0%-13.9%-8.9%-9.7%20010.4%6.2%3.3%9.2%6.7%0.4%15.7%3.5%3.8%5.5%20023.3%-12.4%-6.8%-6.0%2.0%3.3%-6.9%-14.1%2.7%-3.9%200324.6%3.9%12.5%-7.0%2.7%24.6%12.6%11.9%18.6%11.6%200414.5%6.3%6.6%10.0%6.2%14.5%9.3%5.1%8.6%9.0%200529.7%48.5%44.6%38.4%25.4%26.5%49.3%49.8%35.0%38.6%200646.1%31.1%28.4%35.8%46.4%41.3%47.4%35.5%43.3%39.5%200714.8%3.8%13.3%3.4%-1.8%7.4%7.4%6.8%2.5%6.4%2008-23.5%-20.2%3.9%-5.3%-6.6%-28.5%-37.7%-28.0%-5.6%-16.8%200948.9%45.4%34.7%17.5%28.8%49.0%52.7%44.6%42.3%40.4%201083.4%96.2%89.9%60.8%73.8%77.0%60.2%65.3%76.6%75.9%2011-10.3%-7.2%-9.9%-10.2%-8.2%-14.3%-14.9%-9.9%6.4%-8.7%20129.5%7.3%4.8%7.6%6.5%8.4%23.4%6.9%13.6%9.8%2013-36.0%-38.5%-37.2%-25.4%-31.4%-37.8%-22.3%-37.5%-28.0%-32.7%2014-19.3%-8.3%-14.2%-11.9%-11.7%-17.3%-8.3%-10.2%-17.7%-13.2%2015-11.7%-1.6%-6.7%-0.9%5.2%-7.6%-11.2%-11.0%-7.2%-5.9%201615.2%19.0%37.6%16.3%11.8%23.2%11.9%17.1%18.3%18.9%20176.4%-6.8%-2.9%-1.6%-0.4%-0.3%2.5%1.8%-0.1%-0.2%2018-8.7%-4.4%-3.2%1.0%-1.0%-3.5%-11.2%-8.0%-0.5%-4.4%201915.2%17.8%10.8%15.7%9.7%16.6%14.2%13.6%18.1%14.6%202047.8%35.7%43.4%34.9%44.9%38.6%40.5%35.2%51.3%41.4%2021-11.7%-5.2%-10.8%-6.5%-12.4%-14.1%-1.6%-9.0%-10.0%-9.0%20223.0%9.4%15.2%9.8%10.5%11.8%17.3%4.4%14.4%10.6%2023-0.9%-3.8%-5.8%-0.8%-3.1%2.0%6.7%-9.7%-0.3%-1.7%2024 YTD33%5.4%4.4%8.0%5.8%5.2%11.0%10.6%3.5%6.4%CAGR6.5%6.1%7.5%6.5%6.2%5.9%8.2%4.0%9.3%6.7%29Source:Reuters Eikon(as of March 20th,2024),Incrementum AGPotential Upside for Silver as Weak Performance Over Last 3 Years May Indicate a Coiled PositionSilver(USD)Performance Triangle,in%,2000-2024 YTD Purchased at the End of 20000.43.729.247.991.9180.4221.8146.2266.7572.3503.3560.3322.9241.2201.3247.1269.2237.3288.5474.3406.9422.1417.6435.220013.328.647.391.1179.2220.4145.1265.1569.4500.7557.5321.0239.7200.0245.6267.6235.8286.8471.8404.7419.9415.4432.9200224.642.685.1170.4210.3137.4253.6548.3481.7536.83078229.0190.5234.7256.0225.2274.6453.7388.8403.5399.2416.1200314.548.6117.0149.190.6183.8420.4366.9411.1227.3164.1133.2168.7185.8161.0200.7344.5292.4304.1300.7314.3200429.789.5117.566.4147.9354.5307.8346.4185.9130.6103.7134.7149.6128.0162.6288.2242.7252.9249.9261.8200546.167.728.391.0250.3214.3244.01