电力市场视角：在电力脱碳背景下支持一个可靠且可支付的电网（英）.docx

Electricity Market Visions
TO SUPPORT A RELIABLE AND AFFORDABLE ELECTRIC GRID UNDER ELECTRICITY DECARBONIZATION

March 2025 ES
ENERGY SYSTEMS
INTEGRATION GROUP

ES
ENERGY SYSTEMS INTEGRATION GROUP

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© 2025 Energy Systems Integration Group

ENERGY SYSTEMS INTEGRATION GROUP xii
ELECTRICITY MARKET VISIONS

Electricity Market Visions to Support a Reliable and Affordable Electric Grid Under Electricity Decarbonization
A Report by the Energy Systems Integration Group’s Electricity Markets Under 100% Clean Electricity Task Force

Writing Team
Erik Ela, Energy Systems Integration Group, EPRI
Robin Hytowitz, Task Force Chair
Ryan Schoppe, EPRI
Rob Gramlich, Grid Strategies
Kelli Joseph, University of Pennsylvania
Jacob Mays, Cornell University
Debra Lew, Energy Systems Integration Group

Task Force Members
Manoj Kumar Agrawal,
Grid Controller of India Limited
Mohit Agrawal, NextEra Energy
Farhad Billimoria, Aurora Energy Research
Frank Berring, SMA America
Aaron Burdick, Energy and Environmental Economics (E3)
Scott Burger, Form Energy
Conleigh Byers, Harvard University
Juan Pablo Carvallo, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Yonghong Chen, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Patrick Danner, New York Power Authority


William D’haeseleer, KU Leuven Research and Development
Joshua Dillon, Pine Gate Renewables Mark Drummond, Independent Electricity System Operator
Pengwei Du, Electric Reliability Council of Texas
Will Frazier, encoord
Bethany Frew, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Michael Goggin, Grid Strategies
Jim Gonzalez, Southwest Power Pool Jessica Greenberg, Enel Green Power Karl Hausker, World Resources Institute

Samantha Hoffman, TransAlta
Hannele Holttinen, Recognis Oy
Jon Jensen, Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Vijitha Kandamkumarath, Grid Controller of India Limited
Lynn Kiesling, Northwestern University
Bheshaj Krishnappa, Solar Energy Industries Association
Daniele Lerede, Open Energy Transition
Todd Levin, Argonne National Laboratory
Eli Massey, Midcontinent Independent System Operator
Jacob Mays, Cornell University
Mariano Mezzatesta, Bonneville Power Administration
Michael Milligan, Milligan Grid Solutions, Inc.
David Mindham, EDP Renewables
Zachary Ming, Energy and Environmental Economics (E3)
Francisco Muñoz, Generadoras de Chile
Pramila Nirbhavane, New York Independent System Operator
Kazuhiko Ogimoto, University of Tokyo
Arne Olson, Energy and Environmental Economics (E3)
Glenda Oskar, U.S. Department of Energy Karen Palmer, Resources for the Future Michele Pastor, Enernex
Cody Phillips, ConnectGen Kevin Porter, Exeter Associates Pramod Kumar Prajapati,
Grid Controller of India Limited
Molly Robertson, Resources for the Future
Hammad Saleem, Independent Electricity System Operator
Michael Schowalter, Fresh Energy
Brian Sergi, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Paul Sotkiewicz, E-Cubed Policy Associates
Sylvie Spewak, California Independent System Operator
Elina Spyrou, Imperial College London
Gord Stephen, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Muthu Subramanian, Independent System Operator for New England
Michael Tita, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Karin Wadsack, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

This report was developed based upon funding from the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, Managing and Operating Contractor for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the
U.S. Department of Energy.

Suggested Citation
Energy Systems Integration Group. 2025. Electricity Market Visions to Support a Reliable and Affordable Electric Grid Under Electricity Decarbonization. Reston, VA. https://www.esig.energy/ market-evolution-report/.

Disclaimer
This report was produced by a task force made up of diverse members with diverse viewpoints and levels of participation. Specific statements may not necessarily represent a consensus among all participants or the views of participants’ employers.

Contents
vii Executive Summary
1 Introduction
2 Electricity Markets Under Deep Decarbonization: Literature Review and Task Force Workshops
2 Four Key Principles for Electricity Markets’ Objectives, Today and in the Future
3 A Shared View of a Beneficial Design of Future Electricity Markets
5 Assumptions About and Characteristics of 100% Clean Electricity Systems and Their Implications
5 The Resource Mix: Pathways to Meet 100% Clean Electricity
10 Transmission and Other Infrastructure
12 Reliability on a System with High Levels of Weather-Dependent, Variable, Uncertain, and Inverter-Based Resources
13 Wholesale Energy Prices and Price Formation with Zero-Fuel-Cost Resources
14 Incorporating Clean Energy Policies as an Externality Within the Wholesale Markets
15 A Vision for Market Design and Market Structure in Future Systems with 100% Clean Electricity
15 The Vision
17 The Continuation of Present Market Structures
20 The Continuation of Short-Term Energy and Grid Services Spot Markets
29 Hybrid Market Approaches to Ensuring Resource Adequacy, Risk Mitigation, and Investment Certainty
33 Markets Should Not Subsidize Clean Electricity Resources but Can Facilitate Outside Policy Instruments That Provide Incentives and Subsidies to Clean Electricity Resources
34 Summary of Possible Future Market Designs Including Alternative Proposals

35 Possible Next Steps for Realization of the Market Design Vision
35 Potential Actions
36 Identifying Metrics to Evaluate Future Market Designs
38 Looking Forward
38 Summary of the Market Design Vision
40 Evolution, Not Revolution
40 A Need for Global Collaboration
41 References

P H OTO S

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A
s the electricity grid continues to evolve and
the mix of electricity suppliers moves toward one where there are clean, emissions-free suppliers,
opportunities and challenges arise. With these changes, organized electricity markets can play a key role in the future in achieving a system that maintains the goals of affordability and reliability and fosters further innova- tion. The Energy Systems Integration Group convened the Electricity Markets Under 100% Clean Electricity Task Force to evaluate the potential design of electricity
The electricity market can achieve many goals, but
it cannot do everything. In some cases the incentives that are built into the market design can be changed by designers or regulators based on what the challenges are and where solutions are needed. We focus on four key principles for what a market needs to do today and in the future (Figure ES-2, p. ix): (1) to enable innovation such that market designs are not fixed to the current
set of technologies but rather show the right signals to improve upon the existing technology when cost-

effective, (2) to incentivize investment decisions (entry

Executive Summary
Organized electricity markets can play a key role in the future in achieving a system that maintains the goals of affordability and reliability and fosters further innovation.

markets under a system in which all electricity is supplied from clean, zero-emitting supply resources. Task force participants included experts from inde- pendent system operators and regional transmission organizations, expert practitioners, developers, and other key stakeholder groups. The primary goal was to determine what kind of design will be beneficial to society while also considering future structures, institutions, and policies. It was a collaborative effort
to describe a coherent vision of how a future electricity market can provide efficient signals such that meeting electricity demand with all zero-emitting clean energy resources leads to a reliable and affordable system that is fair and equitable. This report presents a collective vision regarding particular goals and core fundamentals as well as highlights areas still under active debate.
Figure ES-1 (p. viii) shows six key categories that need consideration for future markets.
and exit) when they are needed to meet reliability needs and maximize efficiency, (3) to allow for hedging from suppliers and consumers alike when uncertainty or vari- ability can increase risk, and (4) to provide an incentive for the existing participants in the market to operate in a way to maximize efficiency and to contribute to reliability.

FIG URE E S- 1
Categories of Change for Future Market Design Vision

Transmission and other infrastructure
Incentives and policies to achieve the necessary cost-effective infrastructure

Demand participation
Promoting demand-side support
through prices and grid signals

Price formation
In the short term, how prices are formed
and align with operational decisions
Electricity Market Components

Operational reliability services
Incentives for resources to provide the short-term operational grid
services

Clean energy incentives
How to incentivize the efficient transition
to clean energy resources
Resource adequacy and investment
Efficient entry and exit that leads to an adequate supply system

Several categories were discussed as part of the workshops and task force discussion that need consideration when sharing the future market design vision. These included price formation, clean energy incentives, resource adequacy and investment, operational reliability services, demand participation, and transmission and other infrastructure.
Source: Energy Systems Integration Group.

All four principles were kept in mind for
any future market design proposal and were leveraged throughout the report.

Keeping all four principles in mind for any future market design proposal is key and leveraged throughout the report.
To develop the future market design vision, several assumptions were made about the power system and its associated characteristics. No time frame or specific mix was laid out, as regions will vary in this regard. But it
was assumed that this future system would contain substantial amounts of variable renewable energy such as wind and solar, with a substantial amount of energy
storage resources. It may be likely that these technologies are built primarily at the transmission scale, where large- scale transmission expansion and innovative transmission technologies allow for delivery of their energy to load centers. But the technologies could also have a greater presence on the distribution network as distributed energy resources, thereby potentially lessening the transmission need. It was also assumed that a reasonable amount of capacity that is zero-emitting but also with firm and long-duration availability would be present
to maintain reliability during critical time periods. The

FIG URE E S-2
Four Key Principles That Markets Aim to Accomplish

Innovate
Invest
Hedge
Operate

Is there a means
for new technologies to enter and compete?
If a new resource or capital project is efficient and competitive, is
there an incentive for an investor to install?
If efficiency causes uncertainty, can participants hedge against it?
Is there incentive to operate the facility in the most efficient and reliable manner
possible?

Successful markets must incentivize innovation, investment in capital, hedging against risk, and behavior to operate in ways that lead to reliable and economically efficient outcomes.
Source: Energy Systems Integration Group.

amount of this type of resource will depend in part on how much of the demand is responsive to prices and grid needs.
Certain challenges exist in today’s systems but are amplified on a system with this make-up of resources. This system leads to challenges to reliability and resource adequacy, and affects the distribution of the resulting wholesale prices. Depending on the system’s make-up, there could be additional challenges of building sufficient infrastructure or meeting the control and visibility necessary for reliability. It is also confronted with the lack of direct competitive clean energy incentives within the market to naturally bring clean energy resources
to the mix.
Given these assumptions and challenges, the task force looked at market designs that could enable an affordable and reliable system as society transitions to that future. The report shares details of future electricity markets dis- cussed by the task force. It considers the many proposals and reviews in the literature and provides a shared—but not consensus—vision of future markets with a focus on the six components in Figure ES-1. The fundamentals of the future market vision described in the report generally were agreed on by many task force participants, although alternative paths were also proposed and supported by the group. For example, some participants recommended
substantial coordination between policymakers and grid planners as a way to achieve resource adequacy with
a feasible resource mix and infrastructure investments in place.
Elements of the Market Design Vision
While market structure—the make-up of the market and the responsibilities of different entities— is important, the task force primarily focused on the market design for its vision. The following