房地产市场的外在因素.ppt

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,External Factor in Real Estate Markets,房地产市场的外在因素,Associate Professor,National Center for Smart Growth,University of Maryland,Special Assistant,To President of Lincoln Institute of Land Policys China Program,博士,副教授,马里兰大学 城市规划系,马里兰大学 城市理性增长国家中心,总裁特别助理,林肯土地政策研究院 中国项目部,Outline,大纲,External Factors of Property Markets,房地产市场的外在因素,Highest and Best Principle,最高与最佳原则,Impact of Political,Social,and Economic Forces,政治、社会和经济力量的影响,External Factors of Property Markets,房地产市场的外在因素,2.Regional and Community Analysis,区域与社区分析,3.Neighborhood Value Analysis,邻里单元价值分析,4.Land Use Planning,土地利用规划,Political Forces influencing Value,政治因素影响价值,Property rights and ownership,财产权和所有权,The fifth and Fourteenth Amendments in US,美国第五和第十四修正案,Federal financing aids and fiscal policy controls,联邦财政补助和财政控制,Rate of interests,利率,Impact of Political,Social,and Economic Forces,政治、社会和经济力量的影响,Social Forces influencing Value,社会因素影响价值,Population growth rate(timely and spatially),人口增长率（时间与空间）,Demographic composition(age,race,gender,income),人口构成（年龄、种族、性别和收入）,Housing preference(Housing/per 1000 people),住房偏好（住房,/,千人）,Impact of Political,Social,and Economic Forces,政治、社会和经济力量的影响,General Economic forces Influencing Value,影响价值的经济因素,Gross national product,国民生产总值,Per capita income and real wage levels,人均收入和实际收入水平,Unemployment as a measure of full employment.Correlation between unemployment,property foreclosures,and property tax delinquencies,失业率衡量就业水平。失业率，丧失赎回权和拖欠财产税的相关性,Personal saving and investments,个人存款和投资,General business and real estate activity,主要商业和地产活动,State and Regional Forces Influencing Value,国家和区域因素影响价值,Differentials of policy and law,政策和法律差异,Differentials of economic prospective,经济远景差异,etc.,等等,Government Tools in the Real Estate Market,房地产市场中的政府手段,Analyze how government actions affect property value and make appropriate changes,分析政府行为如何影响房地产价值并促其变化,Monitor market activity to queue proposals,lessening the boom/bust cycle,监控市场行为以排序发展次序，减缓涨跌循环,Use economic development policies to attract uses that fit with the regions master plan,使用经济发展政策来引导土地使用，其方式与强度与区域总体规划相一至,Local Government and Property Value,地方政府和房地产价值,Ability to provide service affects value,服务能力影响价值,Crime rate,犯罪率,Fire protection,火警预防,Ease of doing business affects value,从事商务活动的方便性影响价值,Property tax rate,房地产税率,Regulatory environment,政策规范环境,Liquor license,酒精饮料销售许可,Zoning requirements,分区要求,Local Government and Property Value,地方政府和房地产价值,Externalities from nearby uses affect value,周围环境等外在因素影响环境,Noise from airports,机场噪声,Pollution from factories,工厂污染,Monitoring Land Market Activity,监控土地市场活动,Goal is to prevent overbuilding that leads to vacancies,disinvestment,and blight,目标在于防止建设过度而导致空置、蚀本和经济衰落,Still need to encourage commercial development to increase property tax base and promote economic development,仍需要鼓励商业开发以增加房地产税基数和促进经济发展,Monitoring Land Market Activity,监控土地市场活动,Policy Tool:Development Queuing,政策工具：开发次序,Planners accept proposals and grant permission to build only if market conditions indicate that demand can absorb the new space,规划师审查规划方案，仅审批那些市场可以消化的建设,Planners estimate market conditions through traditional means gathering data about rents,vacancy rates,current construction,job growth,and spending patterns,规划师采用传统方式,收集租金数据，空置率，建设现状，就业率增长和消费模式,来估计市场形势,The Real Estate Market,房地产市场,Immobility,固定性,Indestructibility,不可破坏性,non-homogeneity,异质性,Property dissimilarity imposes special market conditions,房地产的差异性形成了特殊的市场条件,durability of real estate causes mal-adjustments in both supply and demand on a local market level,房地产的持续性导致对地方市场供求的不当调整,Studying the underlying forces creating supply and demand for real property,研究形成房地产供求的潜在力量,2.Regional and Community Analysis,区域和社区分析,Cause of Urbanization,城市化的结果,City Spatial Form and Growth,城市空间形态和增长,Regional Analysis,区域分析,Regional analysis techniques:economic base analysis,regional input-output analysis,区域分析方法：经济基础分析，区域投入产出分析,Population Trends and Characteristics,人口趋势和特征,Economic Measures of Community Growth,社区增长的经济量化,Land Use Pattern,土地利用模式,Regional and Community Analysis,区域和社区分析,Neighborhood Defined,邻里的定义,The Neighborhood Age Cycle,邻里单元的周期,3.Neighborhood Value Analysis,邻里单元价值分析,Neighborhood Characteristics,邻里单元的特征,Physical features物质特征,Demographic characteristics,人口特征,Economic influences,经济影响,3.Neighborhood Value Analysis,邻里单元价值分析,4.Land Use Planning,Zoning,土地利用规划,分区,Density,密度,Use,使用,Intensity,强度,Location,区位,Urban Bid Rent,Agricultural Rent,Distance from Center,Period III,Period III:Demolition,Density Control-Floor Area Ratio,密度控制,容积率,CBD,Urban Edge,$,Period I,Period II,Period III:Urban Redevelopment,What will happen to the relation between land value and,building value if building height limit is imposed?,Wo B.H.L.,W B.H.L.,Land Use Rights in the United States,美国土地使用权,Land a marketable commodity,土地是可交易商品,Bundle of sticks,权利束,Use determined by higher bidder.,最高报价者决定使用,States have rights to control land use to protect health,safety,morals,and welfare,州政府有权控制土地使用以保护健康、安全、道德和福利。,Most states delegate authority to local governments.,多数州下放权利至地方政府,Objectives of Zoning,分区的目的,Control Externalities,控制形态,Protect Farmland,保护农田,Complement Infrastructure,完善基础设施,Maximize tax base,最大化税收基数,Preserve Community Character,保护社区个性,Exclude the unwanted,消除闲置土地,Allowable Use Zoning and Urban Land Markets,允许使用的分区和城市土地市场,Land allocation determined by market forces in the absence of zoning.,没有分区规划时土地资源分配由市场决定,Market allocation can be imperfect in the presence of externalities,在外部效应存在的情形下，市场分配结果有缺陷,Zoning can be used to correct externalities or to misguide a well-functioning market.,分区规划可以纠正外部效应或者误导运作良好的市场,Land prices can be used to determine if zoning has impacts.,土地价格可以用于决定是否分区规划对房地产产生影响,Commercial rents,$,Residential rents,$,Commercial land,Residential land,Total land,R,c,R,r,R,c,*,R,r,*,Commercial rents,$,Residential rents,$,Commercial land,Residential land,R,c,R,r,R,c,Commercial rents,$,Residential rents,$,Commercial land,Residential land,R,c,R,r,R,r,*,R,c,*,Density Zoning and Urban Land Markets,密度分区和城市土地市场,Land rent gradients w/o density zoning,没有密度分区时的土地租金梯度,Land rent gradients w/density zoning,有密度分区时的土地租金梯度,The price effects of density zoning,密度分区的价格影响,The welfare effects of density zoning,密度分区的福利影响,Highest,and,Best,Use,Principle,最高与最好使用原则,Concepts,概念,Present value,现在价值,Amortization,分期偿还,Value,capital rate,and rent(Net operating incomerent),价值，资金率和租金（净收益,租金）,Future value(=0),未来价值,2.Highest and best use analysis,最高与最佳使用分析,Highest and Best Use Analysis,最高与最好分析,The highest and best use of vacant land,闲置土地的最高与最佳使用,The highest and best use of the improved site,已开发土地的最高与最佳原则,Highest and Best Use Analysis,最高与最好分析,Four criteria:,四项条件：,Physical possible:size,shape,terrain,capacity,availability of utilities etc.,物质上可行：尺寸，形态，地形，容量，服务设施等,Legally permissible:restriction,zoning,building codes,environmental regulations and others laws.,法律上允许：限制，分区，建筑规范，环境规则和其他法律,Financial feasible:if the project produce an income or return equal to or greater than the amount needed to cover costs.,经济上可行：如果项目产出等于或大于投入,Maximally productive.,最大生产率,ApartmentOfficeRetail,公寓办公零售,Cost of construction$1,021,600$928,000$817,300,建设投资,Effective gross income,有效毛收入,$265,000$200,000$180,000,Operating expenses -$135,000 -$80,000 -$69,000,运营费用,-,$130,000$120,000$111,000,Assuming a 20 year-year life for the building,then PV=the cost of construction,FV=0,i=1,n=20.,Highest,and Best Use for a Vacant Lot,闲置土地的最高与最佳使用,For Apartment:,NOI to land=NOI of total-building amortization cost,$10,000=$130,000-$120,000,Site Value:V=R/I=10,000/0.10=$100,000,ApartmentOfficeRetail,Income to building 10%$120,000$109,000$96,000,Income to site$10,000$11,000$15,000,Indicated site value 10%$100,000$110,000$150,000,So Retail has the highest value for the site,Highest and Best Use of A Property as Improved,房地产更新的最高与最佳原则,The alternatives are,不同方案,:,Renovate the existing stores,spending$20,000,更新现存商店，花,2,万美元,Convert the existing space to offices,spending$40,000,改成办公，花,4,万,Demolish and construct a new building.,拆除，建设新办公楼,ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct,(retail)OfficeNew,Blg,Acquisition price$200,000$200,000$200,000,Renovation cost$20,000$40,0000,Construction cost00$700,000,Demolish cost00$30,000,Total costs$220,000$240,000$930,000,The acquisition price will be allocated 80 percent to improvement and 20 percent to land.PV=building costs,FV=0,i=10,n=estimated economic life.,ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct,(retail)OfficeNew Blg,Building cost(80%)$160,000$160,000$0,New construction 20,000 40,000 700,000,Total Allocated to Building$180,000$200,000$700,000,Economic life15 yr15 yr20 yr,Return to Building 10%$23,665$26,295$77,118,Highest and Best Use of A Property as Improved,房地产更新的最高与最佳原则,ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct,(retail)OfficeNew Blg,Effective gross income$41,000$47,000$123,000,Operating expenses-12,000-16,000 -20,000,-,Net operating income$29,000$31,000$103,000,Return to building 10%-23,665-26,295-77,118,-,Income to site$5,335$4,705$26,582,Adjustment for 10%return,On cost of land acquisition-4,000-4,000-23,000Residual income to land as,Adjusted residual income$1,335$705$3,582,Additional land value created,At 10%capitalization$13,350$7,050$35,820,Total land value created,(original purchase+additional)$53,350$47,050$265,820,Note:$200,000*20%=40,000 for the first two cases.,The last case:the total land cost becomes the initial purchase plus the demolish cost(200,000+30,000=$230,000),