科尔尼为中远集团做的—物流行业及发展趋势研究报告.pptx

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Text:14-point Times New Roman with 70 percent Wingdings square bullet,100 percent Times New Roman round bullet(Alt 0149),100 percent Times New Roman em dash bullet(Alt 0151),100 percent Times New Roman en dash bullet(Alt 0150),Major(24 Point)or Minor(18 Point)Times New Roman Bold,Title Case/GP headline(18 point)Time New Roman sentence case,8,Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/,*,Text:14-point Times New Roman with 70 percent Wingdings square bullet,100 percent Times New Roman round bullet(Alt 0149),100 percent Times New Roman em dash bullet(Alt 0151),100 percent Times New Roman en dash bullet(Alt 0150),Major(24 Point)or Minor(18 Point)Times New Roman Bold,Title Case/GP headline(18 point)Time New Roman sentence case,8,Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/,*,July,COSCO IPO SUPPORT MATERIALS,Logistics Services Industry Environment&Trend Analysis,-COSCO Comments and A.T.Kearney Remarks,The contents of this document were prepared by A.T.Kearney and may not be used,altered or disclosed to other parties,without the written permission of AT.Kearney.,The information contained in this document has been obtained from external sources which A.T.Kearney believes are reliable.However,A.T.Kearney can make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or projections derived therefrom.,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第1页,Table of Contents,Executive Summary,Market Size&Growth,Global,China,Service Demand,Global Trends,China Trends,Competitive Environment,Global,China,Regulatory Environment,Information Technology,Appendix,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第2页,Executive Summary,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第3页,A.T.Kearneys definition of the logistics services industry,Structuring and managing,on behalf of cargo owners,solutions involving some combination of parts of the supply chain(i.e.transportation,warehousing,(de)consolidation,etc.),科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第4页,The logistics service industry represent a tremendous growth opportunity,both globally and in China,Market Characteristic,Conclusion,Customers are increasingly demanding high value logistics service solutions,requiring global reach and advanced supply chain management capabilities,Increasing demand for global reach and capabilities fuels consolidation as large full service providers are positioning themselves for success,Chinas entry into WTO is expected to have two main implications,-the logistics market will grow rapidly,and competitive intensity will dramatically increase,Strong IT capabilities is becoming a core capability of logistics services providers and is critical to building a logistics services business,Market Size&Growth,Service Demand,Competitive,Environment,Regulatory,Environment,Information,Technology,Source:A.T.Kearney,The global logistics services market reached an estimated US$190 Bn in.The China market is still small at US$0.61 Bn,but will be growing rapidly at CAGR 35%over the next five years,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第5页,The China logistics industry will be shaped by Chinas entry into the WTO and the subsequent opening of the market to foreign competition,Industry Scenario,Rapid increase in M&A activities,Key alliances formed within the next 2-3 years,Rapid expansion of global players offering sophisticated end-to-end solution,including logistics,transportation and IT,Implementation of e-commerce initiatives and increasing dependence on IT network,Mergers,Acquisitions and Alliances,Global Competitors,Technology,The logistics market will grow rapidly,Competitive intensity will dramatically increase,WTO Entry,Source:A.T.Kearney,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第6页,1.,Market Size&Growth,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第7页,The global logistics services market reached an estimated US$190 Bn in,The global logistics outsourcing market is estimated to US$190 Bn in,The transportation and related expenditures market reached an estimated US$3.8 Trillion in,and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.3%over the next 5 years,The Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach US$31 Bn in and is expected to grow at CAGR 39%over the next five years,The greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport,warehousing,and transport management,The growth of the global logistics services industry is mainly driven by shippers propensity to outsource logistics services and organic transportation market growth,Customer electronics,automotive and apparel represent the most attractive opportunities for logistics services in China,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第8页,The China market is still small at US$0.61 Bn,but will be growing rapidly at CAGR 35%over the next five years,The China logistics services market is still small at US$0.61 Bn,but will be growing rapidly over the next 5 years,The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in China,The transportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in China than in most developed countries and NIEs-indicating a major improvement opportunity,In Coastal China,demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and Shanghai,In Inland China,the largest demand potential is in Sichuan and the Hubei/Yangtze river region,Growth in the logistics services industry in China will mainly be driven by continued macro economic growth and increased propensity to outsource logistics,Favorable macro economic outlook,Public policy and spending,Increasing interest in outsourcing for logistics needs,Growing IT and E-business,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第9页,Market Size&Growth,-Global,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第10页,The global logistics outsourcing market is estimated to US$190 Bn in,Source:Chinainfobank,CSFB,A.T.Kearney,Global Transportation and Logistics Market Size(),Transportation and related activities handled by manufacturers,wholesalers,retailers themselves(e.g.private fleet,private warehousing),Discrete sets of transportation and related services outsourced by manufacturers,wholesalers,retailers,(e.g.public warehousing etc.),Combination of“transportation and related services”provisioned by 3,rd,party logistics service providers,US$3,800 Bn,Outsourced,US$190 Bn,Global transportation and related expenditures,Global outsourced transportation and related services,Global logistics outsourcing market,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第11页,US$Bn,The transportation and related expenditures market reached an estimated US$3.8 Trillion in,and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.3%over the next 5 years,Note:(1)Asia includes Japan,Hong Kong,Korea,Singapore and Taiwan,Source:Bowersox and Calantone;CSFB;A.T.Kearney Analysis,Transportation and Related Expenditures by Region(),Transportation and Related Expenditures by Function(),US$Bn,Total=US$3,837 Bn,Others:-1.4%,Asia,(1),:2.2%,Europe:2.6%,North America:,4.0%,3,424,3,837,4,389CAGR=2.3%,CAGR=2.8%,Warehousing,$304 Bn,Transport,$2,204 Bn,Others,$55 Bn,Shipper-Related,$20 Bn,Inventory,$1,102 Bn,Admin,$152 Bn,CAGR-,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第12页,The Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach US$31 Bn in and is expected to grow at CAGR 39%over the next five years,Note:Asia includes China,Japan,Honk Kong,Korea,Singapore and Taiwan,Source:Bowersox and Calantone;CSFB;A.T.Kearney Analysis,Logistics Outsourcing Market in Asia-Gross Revenue,(US$Bn),CAGR(99-01)=38%,CAGR(01-06)=39%,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第13页,The greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport,warehousing,and transport management,Transport,Warehousing,TransportManagement,IT,SupplementaryLogistic Services,Purchase OrderManagement,LogisticsManagement,30%,47%,48%,85%,20%,40%,39%,76%,23%,2%,5%,16%,%,of respondents outsourcing 1998,%of respondents planed outsourcing,13%,8%,Outsourcing by Function,Resource,require-,ments,Complexity,Note:The percentage may not add up to 100%due to rounding,Source:Based on several A.T.Kearney studies,including:,Worldwide study comprising 280 participants(automotive 19%,electronics 25%,retail 27%,chemicals 29%),European study comprising 500 participants(retail 26%,food&beverage 26%,commodities 22%,machinery 12%,automotive 7%,electronics&high-tech 4%),科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第14页,Outsourcing of non-core business activities,Organic growth of transportation markets,Increased complexity of global supply chains,Recognition by many shippers that supply chain strategy may be a key competitive advantage,Willingness to outsource when logistics not seen as core competency,Development of superior logistics capability by a few 3PLs,Growth in demand for transportation services expands with international trade growth,Globalization of many industries means goods need to move over longer distances at faster speeds with higher reliability,Growth in Logistics Services,Source:UBS Warburg,IDC,Growth Drivers,Details,1,2,The growth of the global logistics services industry is mainly driven by shippers propensity to outsource logistics services and organic transportation market growth,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第15页,Consumer electronics,automotive and apparel represent the most attractive opportunities for logistics services in China,Note:1.Size of circle relative to segment size in,2.Analysis is indicative only,Source:A.T.Kearney field interviews and research,High,Low,Growth(-),Remarks,Highly market-oriented,need quick response to consumer feedback,Manufacturers have to to improve operation efficiency continuously due to intense competition,Relatively high product value and less price sensitive,High requirement for timing and reliability of liners,High gross margin industry,production cost and logistics account for less percentage of sales,Prefer timely feedback from destination ports,i.e.trade consulting services,Automotive supplies involve over 30,000 parts,which need consolidating suppliers to handle logistics,Intense competition drives companies to reduce cost,current inefficiency in self-handling leads companies to consider outsourcing services actively,High value products,not very price sensitive,but sometimes decisions are made overseas,Packing requirement involves technical difficulties,unwilling to outsource logistics services,High profit industry,not very price sensitive,High quality requirement for dry,no smell,no leaking containers,hence containerized in factory,Clearance of cigarettes needs to be done by professional I/E companies or manufactures,Large and special shape,therefore the way to put them into containers can impact the number of containers to be used,which directly related to cost-usually done in-house,Cost sensitive,firms usually choose less busy season to get cheaper prices,Frozen products and fresh products need to be handled fast with care,Other products are low-value and need no special services,Low value products,highly price sensitive,Lower quality requirement,usually containerized at ports,Consumer Electronics,Apparel,Automotive,Machinery,Tobacco&Liquor,Furniture,Primary Goods,Chemicals&Materials,Industry,Low,High,Consumer,Electronics,A,pparel,Automotive,Outsourcing Propensity,Tobacco,Liquor,Primary,G,oods,Opportunity Assessment by Industry,Chemicals,&Materials,Furniture,M,achinery,Add market and trends analysis by industry,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第16页,Market Size&Growth,-China,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第17页,The China logistics services market is still small at US$0.61 Bn,but will be growing rapidly over the next 5 years,Logistics Outsourcing Market -Gross Revenue(,US$Bn),Note:Asia includes China,Japan,Hong Kong,Singapore and Taiwan,Source:Bowersox and Calantone;CSFB;A.T.Kearney Estimates,CAGR=35%,190,23,0.61,China Logistics Service Market,(US$,Bn),科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第18页,The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in China,Characteristics,Emerging demand for outsourced logistics services,Low value added services such as transport and warehousing are the major type of services outsourced,Traditional in-house behaviour being impacted,Fast growth of logistics user base and higher requirement for broader services,Large number of services providers competing for customers and human resources,Most high value added services are free and provided as,selling,points,Logistics outsourcing becomes common practice and an important lever for competition,Consolidated service market with a few established market leaders,Logistics penetrate in supply chain and replace traditional business models,Global logistics integrators provide one-stop solution worldwide,Specialization and close cooperation among global logistics service providers,Optimized allocation and integration of resources along the supply chain,Stage,Emergence,Growth,Penetration,Globalization,World Leading,(US),China,Today,Source:A.T.Kearney,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第19页,Warehousing and Distribution,Trucking,Rail Freight,Although Heavily Used,Railway Freight Has Long Transit Times and Service Reliability Is Poor,Railway Containers Are Not Compatible With Shipping Company Containers,Airline,Customs Brokerage,Courier,Limited Presence of Foreign Firms As JV E.G.DHL Sinotrans,Regional Segregation in Operation,Logistics Center and,Freight Forwarding,Shipping,The domestic warehousing market is currently small and over-supplied with basic warehouses providing virtually no value-added services,Some consolidation just started among the large warehousing companies,River transportation has declined,Most vessels are characterized by low speed and high energy costs,Trucking companies are only allowed to operate in restricted regions,Government has established 15 Free Trade Zones and some logistics centers are set up there,Inland transportation is handled by domestic freight forwarder who is usually sub-contracted by the international freight forwarder,Seven,domestic airlines dominate regional operations,Designated foreign carriers are given a maximum entitlement of 50 tonnes per week,Many customs clearing brokerage firms and considerable confusion about roles,Customs clearing procedures took at least -1 day previously but expected to be shortened to1 hour,The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in China(continued),Source:A.T.Kearney Analysis,China Logistics Services,科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第20页,Transportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in China than in most developed countries and NIEs indicating a major improvement opportunity,Total Transportation and Related Expenditures and%of GDP(),Note:(1)VAS:Value-added-services,(2)Including packaging,admin,information services,ect.,Source:Bowersox and Calantone,CSFB,IMF 1997 study;Chinainfobank;A.T.Kearney Analysis,US$Bn,China Transportation and Related Expenditures Breakdown by Function(),Total=US$248 Bn,US$Bn,(1),(,2,),科尔尼为中远集团做的物流行业及发展趋势研究报告,第21页,Demand Growth,In Coastal China,demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and Shanghai,High,Low,Hebei,Beijing,Tianjin,4,Beijing is the No.1 air cargo center in China.In addition,Bei