2024年世界经济展望报告（英）.pdf

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK2024OCTINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDPolicy Pivot,Rising ThreatsWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK2024OCTPolicy Pivot,Rising ThreatsINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND2024 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design:IMF CSF Creative Solutions DivisionComposition:Absolute Service,Inc.Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMF LibraryNames:International Monetary Fund.Title:World economic outlook(International Monetary Fund)Other titles:WEO|Occasional paper(International Monetary Fund)|World economic and financial surveys.Description:Washington,DC:International Monetary Fund,1980-|Semiannual|Some issues also have thematic titles.|Began with issue for May 1980.|1981-1984:Occasional paper/International Monetary Fund,0251-6365|1986-:World economic and financial surveys,0256-6877.Identifiers:ISSN 0256-6877(print)|ISSN 1564-5215(online)Subjects:LCSH:Economic developmentPeriodicals.|International economic relationsPeriodicals.|Debts,ExternalPeriodicals.|Balance of paymentsPeriodicals.|International financePeriodicals.|Economic forecastingPeriodicals.Classification:LCC HC10.W79HC10.80 ISBN 979-8-40028-115-0(English Paper)979-8-40028-317-8(English ePub)979-8-40028-313-0(English Web PDF)Disclaimer:The World Economic Outlook(WEO)is a survey by the IMF staff pub-lished twice a year,in the spring and fall.The WEO is prepared by the IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on October 8,2024.The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMFs Executive Directors or their national authorities.Recommended citation:International Monetary Fund.2024.World Economic Outlook:Policy Pivot,Rising Threats.Washington,DC.October.Publication orders may be placed online,by fax,or through the mail:International Monetary Fund,Publication ServicesP.O.Box 92780,Washington,DC 20090,USATel.:[phone] Fax:[phone]E-mail:publicationsIMF.orgbookstore.IMF.orgelibrary.IMF.orgInternational Monetary Fund|October 2024iiiAssumptions and Conventions viiFurther Information ixData xPreface xiForeword xiiExecutive Summary xivChapter 1.Global Prospects and Policies 1Uncertainty Seeping through as Policies Shift 1The Outlook:Stable yet UnderwhelmingBrace for Uncertain Times 6Risks to the Outlook:Tilted to the Downside 15Policy Priorities:From Restoring Price Stability to Rebuilding Buffers 18Box 1.1.The Global Automotive Industry and the Shift to Electric Vehicles 22Box 1.2.Risk Assessment Surrounding the World Economic Outlooks Baseline Projections 24Commodity Special Feature:Market Developments and the Inflationary Effects of Metal Supply Shocks 28References 39Chapter 2.The Great Tightening:Insights from the Recent Inflation Episode 41Introduction 41What Happened?Dissecting Inflation Dynamics 43The Monetary Policy Reaction 48Lessons for Monetary Policy:A Model-Based Analysis 51Summary and Policy Implications 55Box 2.1.The Role of Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies 58Box 2.2.The Role of Price-Suppressing Policies 60References 62Chapter 3.Understanding the Social Acceptability of Structural Reforms 65Introduction 65Social Acceptability of Reforms:A Primer 68The Challenge of Implementing Structural Reforms:Key Facts 68Attitudes toward Reforms:Evidence from Surveys 71Tools and Strategies for Sustainably Advancing Reform Agendas:Lessons from 11 Country Cases 76Conclusions and Policy Implications 78Box 3.1.Policies to Facilitate the Integration of Ukrainian Refugees into the European Labor Market:Early Evidence 80References 81CONTENTSWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK:POLICy PIvOT,RIsINg ThREaTsivInternational Monetary Fund|October 2024Statistical Appendix 85Assumptions 85Whats New 85Data and Conventions 86Country Notes 87Classification of Economies 89General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification 89Table A.Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP,Exports of Goods and Services,and Population,2023 91Table B.Advanced Economies by Subgroup 92Table C.European Union 92Table D.Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings 93Table E.Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region,Net External Position,Heavily Indebted Poor Countries,and Per Capita Income Classification 94Table F.Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods 96Table G.Key Data Documentation 97Box A1.Economic Policy Assumptions underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 107Box A2.Revised World Economic Outlook Purchasing-Power-Parity Weights 111List of Tables 114Output(Tables A1A4)115Inflation(Tables A5A7)122Financial Policies(Table A8)127Foreign Trade(Table A9)128Current Account Transactions(Tables A10A12)130Balance of Payments and External Financing(Table A13)137Flow of Funds(Table A14)141Medium-Term Baseline Scenario(Table A15)144World Economic Outlook Selected Topics 145IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook,October 2024 155TablesTable 1.1.Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 10Table 1.2.Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections at Market Exchange Rate Weights 12Annex Table 1.1.1.European Economies:Real GDP,Consumer Prices,Current Account Balance,and Unemployment 33Annex Table 1.1.2.Asian and Pacific Economies:Real GDP,Consumer Prices,Current Account Balance,and Unemployment 34Annex Table 1.1.3.Western Hemisphere Economies:Real GDP,Consumer Prices,Current Account Balance,and Unemployment 35Annex Table 1.1.4.Middle East and Central Asia Economies:Real GDP,Consumer Prices,Current Account Balance,and Unemployment 36Annex Table 1.1.5.Sub-Saharan African Economies:Real GDP,Consumer Prices,Current Account Balance,and Unemployment 37Annex Table 1.1.6.Summary of World Real per Capita Output 38Table 3.1.Hypotheses to Boost Policy Support 73Table 3.2.Historical Employment Protection Legislation Reform Episodes 76CONTENTsvInternational Monetary Fund|October 2024CONTENTsTable A2.1.Changes in World GDP Shares from Purchasing-Power-Parity Revisions 112Table A2.2.Revisions to Real GDP Growth of World Economic Outlook Aggregates 113Online TablesStatistical AppendixTable B1.Advanced Economies:Unemployment,Employment,and Real GDP per CapitaTable B2.Emerging Market and Developing Economies:Real GDPTable B3.Advanced Economies:Hourly Earnings,Productivity,and Unit Labor Costs in ManufacturingTable B4.Emerging Market and Developing Economies:Consumer PricesTable B5.Summary of Fiscal and Financial IndicatorsTable B6.Advanced Economies:General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing and General Government Net Lending/Borrowing Excluding Social Security SchemesTable B7.Advanced Economies:General Government Structural BalancesTable B8.Emerging Market and Developing Economies:General Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Overall Fiscal BalanceTable B9.Emerging Market and Developing Economies:General Government Net Lending/BorrowingTable B10.Selected Advanced Economies:Exchange RatesTable B11.Emerging Market and Developing Economies:Broad Money AggregatesTable B12.Advanced Economies:Export Volumes,Import Volumes,and Terms of Trade in Goods and ServicesTable B13.Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region:Total Trade in GoodsTable B14.Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings:Total Trade in GoodsTable B15.Summary of Current Account TransactionsTable B16.Emerging Market and Developing Economies:Summary of External Debt and Debt ServiceTable B17.Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region:External Debt by MaturityTable B18.Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria:External Debt by MaturityTable B19.Emerging Market and Developing Economies:Ratio of External Debt to GDPTable B20.Emerging Market and Developing Economies:Debt-Service RatiosTable B21.Emerging Market and Developing Economies,Medium-Term Baseline Scenario:Selected Economic IndicatorsFiguresFigure 1.1.Growth and Inflation Revisions 2Figure 1.2.Inflation Surprises and Importance of Food in CPI 2Figure 1.3.Recent Inflation Developments 3Figure 1.4.Labor Market Developments 3Figure 1.5.Monetary Transmission 4Figure 1.6.Fiscal Policy Stance 5Figure 1.7.Pressure on Emerging Markets 6Figure 1.8.Globalization and Trade Fragmentation 6Figure 1.9.Trade Fragmentation:Cold War and Now 7Figure 1.10.Continued Rotation to Services 7Figure 1.11.Global Assumptions 8Figure 1.12.Growth Outlook 9Figure 1.13.Inflation Outlook 14Figure 1.14.Medium-Term Outlook 14WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK:POLICy PIvOT,RIsINg ThREaTsviInternational Monetary Fund|October 2024Figure 1.15.Current Account and International Investment Positions 15Figure 1.16.Inflation Surprises and Changes in Inflation Expectations 16Figure 1.17.Social Unrest Levels 17Figure 1.18.Required Fiscal Consolidation 19Figure 1.19.Government Spending Composition and Future Income Growth 20Figure 1.1.1.Productivity and Global Value Chains in the Automotive Sector 22Figure 1.1.2.Global Share of Electric Vehicles 23Figure 1.2.1.Forecast Uncertainty around Global Growth and Inflation Projections 24Figure 1.2.2.Impact of Scenario A on GDP and Headline Inflation 26Figure 1.2.3.Impact of Scenario B on GDP and Headline Inflation 27Figure 1.SF.1.Commodity Market Developments 28Figure 1.SF.2.Consumption of Copper and Oil 30Figure 1.SF.3.Intermediate Input Expenditure Share of Metals and Oil in Gross Output in the United States 30Figure 1.SF.4.Countries Input-Output Network Exposure to Metals and Oils 31Figure 1.SF.5.Impulse Responses 32Figure 2.1.Cross-Country Inflation Dynamics 42Figure 2.2.Movements in Sectoral Price Dispersion 43Figure 2.3.Sectoral Characteristics and Inflation Dynamics 44Figure 2.4.Energy Price Pass-Through into CPI Inflation 45Figure 2.5.Sectoral Inflation and Price Flexibility 45Figure 2.6.Evolution of Phillips Curves 46Figure 2.7.Inflation Drivers in the United States,Other Advanced Economies,and Emerging Markets 47Figure 2.8.Monetary Policy Tightening 48Figure 2.9.Comparison of Inflation Episodes 49Figure 2.10.Monetary Policy Transmission to CPI during Tightening Episodes 50Figure 2.11.Phillips Curve under Different Constraints 51Figure 2.12.Impacts of Supply Constraints and Commodity Sector Shocks 52Figure 2.13.Counterfactual Monetary Policy 54Figure 2.14.Role of Coordinated Monetary Policy 54Figure 2.15.Alternative Policy Rules 55Figure 2.1.1.Central Bank Balance Sheets 58Figure 2.1.2.Estimated Impact of Monetary Policy and LSAP Tightening 59Figure 2.2.1.Discretionary Inflation Stabilization Policies during the Pandemic 60Figure 2.2.2.Euro Area Actual and Counterfactual Energy Price Levels 60Figure 3.1.Structural Reforms:Uneven Convergence amid Public Resistance 66Figure 3.2.Reform Episodes by Implementation Outcome 69Figure 3.3.Strategies for Building Consensus for Reform 70Figure 3.4.Relative Importance of Reform Strategies for Predicting Reform Implementation 71Figure 3.5.Drivers of Reform Support 72Figure 3.6.Effect of Information Strategies on Reform Support 74Figure 3.7.Reasons for Nonsupport and the Role of Compensatory and Complementary Measures 75International Monetary Fund|October 2024viiA number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook(WEO).It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates remained constant at their average levels during July 30,2024August 27,2024,except for those for the currencies participating in the European exchange rate mech-anism II,which are assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro;that established policies of national authorities will be maintained(for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary policies for selected economies,see Box A1 in the Statistical Appendix);that the average price of oil will be$81.29 a barrel in 2024 and$72.84 a barrel in 2025;that the three-month government bond yield for the United States will average 5.4 percent in 2024 and 3.9 percent in 2025,that for the euro area will average 3.5 percent in 2024 and 2.8 per-cent in 2025,and that for Japan will average 0.1 percent in 2024 and 0.5 percent in 2025;and that the 10-year government bond yield for the United States will average 4.1 percent in 2024 and 3.5 percent in 2025,that for the euro area will average 2.4 percent in 2024 and 2.5 percent in 2025,and that for Japan will average 1.0 percent in 2024 and 1.3 percent in 2025.These are,of course,working hypotheses rather than forecasts,and the uncertain-ties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would,in any event,be involved in the projections.The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through October 7,2024,but may not reflect the latest published data in all cases.For the date of the last data update for each economy,please refer to the notes provided in the online WEO database.The following conventions are used throughout the WEO:.to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;between years or months(for example,202324 or JanuaryJune)to indicate the years or months covered,including the beginning and ending years or months;and /between years or months(for example,2023/24)to indicate a fiscal or financial year.“Billion”means a thousand million;“trillion”means a thousand billion.“Basis points”refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point(for example,25 basis points are equivalent to of 1 percentage point).Data refer to calendar years,except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years.Please refer to Table F in the Statistical Appendix,which lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data.For some countries,the figures for 2023 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns.Please refer to Table G in the Statistical Appendix,which lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national accounts,prices,government finance,and balance of payments for each country.What is new in this publication:Following the recent release of the 2021 survey by the World Bank Groups International Comparison Pro-gram for new purchasing-power-parity benchmarks,the WEOs estimates of purchasing-power-parity weights and GDP valued at purchasing power parity have been updated.For more details,see Box A2 in the Statistical Appendix.For Bangladesh,fiscal year estimates of real GDP and purchasing-power-parity GDP are now used in country group aggregates.For Zimbabwe,the authorities have recently redenominated their national accounts statistics following the introduction on April 5,2024 of a new national currency,the Zimbabwe gold,replacing the Zimbabwe dollar.The use of the Zimbabwe dollar ceased on April 30,2024.ASSUMPTIONS AND CONVENTIONSWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK:POLICy PIvOT,RIsINg ThREaTsviiiInternational Monetary Fund|October 2024In the tables and figures,the following conventions apply:Tables and figures in this report that list their source as“IMF staff calculations”or“IMF staff estimates”draw on data