2024趋势报告：可再生能源和太阳能研究报告.pdf

2024 Trends Report:Renewable Energy and Solar Research Report2024 Trends Report:Renewable Energy and Solar Research Report32024 Trends Report:Renewable Energy and Solar Research Report2RatedPowerIndex05 09 13 19 29 Foreword from our CEO Executive summary About the survey Upcoming renewable challengesGrid saturation and instability Permitting and regulation Increased costs Land availabilitySkilled personnelLack of government incentivesTrends according to industry professionals Storage technologies(BESS)Renewable legislation Alternate PV deployments (Agri-PV,floating solar)Digitalization Notable innovations,materials,and trends Desired new renewable advances Key success factors of a leading energy playerGrid stabilization methods(storage and BESS)Diversification of renewable energy sources Investment in digitalization and automation Investment in a strong labor force Diversification of regional operations Deep dive into RatedPower stats Changing project trendsModule preferences Inverter preferencesStructure preferences BESSConclusionWrap upReferences51 5785 89925RatedPowerRatedPowerForeword from our CEO72024 Trends Report:Renewable Energy and Solar Research Report6RatedPowerThe past year has been a testament to the resilience and adaptability of our industry amidst an ever-changing global energy crisis.While some immediate pressures have eased,the ongoing geopolitical unrest,particularly the prolonged conflict in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East,continue to impact energy markets and economies worldwide.Despite these challenges,the renewable energy sector has experienced significant global growth,particularly in solar PV and electric vehicles.The IEA estimates that nearly 90%1 of total investment in electricity generation went towards low emissions power in 2023,a trend that has been tracking for some time,and this is not only due to the push for lower emissions but also the undeniable economic case for mature clean energy technologies.The momentum behind this transition is now sufficient for global demand for coal,oil,and natural gas to decline before 2030,marking the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.However,there are additional obstacles to overcome on the journey towards a cleaner energy future.Managing supply chain dependencies,especially for critical minerals like lithium,cobalt,nickel,and rare earths,remains a key challenge.Our efforts to diversify and innovate in this area will have a big say in the resilience of clean energy supply chains in the future.Another pivotal component of this transition is the advancement and integration of battery energy storage systems(BESS).The ability to store and distribute energy when needed will make the supply more consistent,mitigating some of the strain on the grid in tandem with the escalating demand for renewable installations.Looking ahead to the future,we asked energy industry professionals to share their thoughts on a number of topics,as a means of understanding the current state of the sector.As some recurring themes in the survey responses show,there are both clear challenges that need to be solved and exciting innovations just around the corner.Were excited to see where things go next.Andrea BarberVP Power&Renewables,Enverus and co-Founder,RatedPower9RatedPowerExecutive Summary112024 Trends Report:Renewable Energy and Solar Research Report10RatedPower2023 was a year where much progress was made in the renewable industry.From a legislative perspective,the European Union adopted a new Energy Directive2,raising their 2030 renewable consumption target to 42.5%from 32%.At the same time,over$270 billion in investments were made in the US in the 18 months since the Inflation Reduction Act3 was introduced in 2022.The solar PV market has particularly flourished.Large utility-scale and small distributed solar PV systems were estimated to make up two-thirds of the 2023 projected increase in global renewable capacity4.Despite this growth,the costs have fluctuated throughout the year,with price hikes driven by various factors,including labor and inverters.Some sources indicate that wind power could end up having a lower LCOE than solar in 2024 in certain regions for the same reasons.That said,solar PV continues to have a 29%lower levelized cost of energy(LCOE)than the cheapest fossil fuel alternative5.As reported by BloombergNEF,the projection of total solar module capacity installed in 2023 around the world is 413 GW6.This represented a massive 58%growth from the amount installed in 2022,which itself was an almost 42%increase from the previous year.This trajectory looks set to continue,with high targets and projections being made.A report from Aurora Energy Research7 earlier in the year suggested that Europe was on track to install a solar power capacity of 475 GW between now and 2030.Meanwhile,at the COP288 conference in Dubai,world leaders agreed to triple the global renewable energy capacity by 2030 and historically agreed to commit to transition away from fossil fuels9.Some interesting trends were noted in RatedPowers platform this year.The dominance of bifacial modules,the growing trend of string inverters,and the geographic variation in structure preferences all highlight evolving design and engineering approaches.Overall,the world is committed to lowering its carbon emissions,and the renewables industry is right there alongside it.13RatedPower2024 Trends Report:Renewable Energy and Solar Research ReportAbout the survey152024 Trends Report:Renewable Energy and Solar Research ReportRatedPower14To gain insight into the renewable sectors trajectory for 2024,we surveyed energy industry professionals from 30 countries spanning six continents.They were asked about industry challenges,trends,innovations,and the impact of government legislation and incentives on the renewable landscape.They gave their take on critical technological advances in the sector and the ideal developments they would like to see in the future.Of the experts we surveyed,over 88%said they work within the solar sector,with the storage and wind power sectors featuring prominently.Over 57%of the respondents said they have worked in the energy industry for 5 to 15+years.Just under 60%come from organizations with less than 150 employees,and 7%from organizations with over 5,000 employees.100%70%60%50%30%20%Solar88.1%Storage39.9%Wind28.6%Power distribution14.3%Oil&Gas3.6%Green hydrogen13.1%Tidal1.2%Hydropower9.5%Related Services8.3%Other renewables6%Other1.2%10%80%90%40%What is your industry sector?172024 Trends Report:Renewable Energy and Solar Research Report16RatedPowerFor how long have you been working in the energy industry?Whats the size of the company you currently work for?33.3%42.9%23.8%10.7%7.1%59.5%22.6%+15 years 5-15 years-5 yearsLess than 150 employees 150-1,000 employees 1,000-5,000 employees+5,000 employees“The time gap to bring greenhouse gases down is getting narrower.We need to speed up the installation of clean energy sources.The coming 5 to 8 years are crucial for many areas of the world.”Diego Lobo-Guerrero RodriguezSENS-Iqony Solar Energy Solutions GmbH19RatedPowerUpcoming renewables challenges212024 Trends Report:Renewable Energy and Solar Research Report20RatedPower100%70%60%50%30%20%Grid saturation and instability 66.7%Lack of government incentives17.9%Permits and regulation56%Land availability17.9%Skilled personnel35.7%Location of resources13.1%Increased costs17.9%Shortage of raw material13.1%Poorly targeted public investment11.9%10%80%90%40%What are the biggest challenges for the renewable sector for the coming year?Grid saturation and instabilityLike last years survey,grid saturation and instability is the number one challenge respondents see for the industry in 2024.66.7%of those surveyed stated this area as an issue,up from 64%last year.In areas of the world where green energy penetration is particularly high,local grids are at their limits.They require further reinforcement to manage the influx of variable power sources without curtailing the electricity supply.Although curtailment rates of variable renewable energy(VRE)in the larger,more established renewable energy markets are rising overall,wind and solar rates are still relatively low,between 1.5%and 4%10.Most markets have been working to reduce their curtailment rates over the last decade,but the geographical disparity between generation and consumption has been an unavoidable obstacle for many regions.Governments have implemented measures to mitigate curtailment,such as the high-voltage direct current in the UK,the Energy Imbalance Market(EIM)in California,or incentivizing batteries in Chile.On the other hand,many areas worldwide are at risk of energy shortfalls,with reports from NERC claiming that two-thirds of North Americas energy supply is vulnerable11 throughout periods of extremely high demand.To manage excess and shortfalls in electricity supply,there is an urgent call for increased infrastructure and storage capacity.Many countries are looking to distributed generation,more robust local grids,and smaller plants to ensure supply by implementing new legislation and reducing regulatory barriers.As solar manufacturing continues to boom across the USA and green investments become more prevalent in Europe,and across the world,the demand for renewable energy installations will continue to increase.If not carefully planned,this growing demand will contribute to saturation and further instability.232024 Trends Report:Renewable Energy and Solar Research Report22RatedPowerWhen permitting is a complex and lengthy process,investment is often deterred,and progress is slowed down.When regulations widely differ across regions,this adds another layer of complexity.All of this makes it harder for renewable energy providers to grow and expand their operations.Over half(56%)of the respondents see permitting and regulation as a challenge for the renewable energy sector,but this is down from 64%last year.This suggests that although this issue still needs to be solved,the work is already underway.The 2022 temporary emergency EU regulation designed to streamline renewable project permits is scheduled to come to an end in 2024;however,there are calls from several countries to extend it to avoid more bottlenecks in the future.With other regions following suit by implementing new laws and reducing bureaucratic hurdles there is hope that stalled projects could start moving.Investors and developers require regulatory stability to confidently pour resources into new ventures.This means that creating more efficient licensing processes needs to be a priority.At the same time,there must be a balance of environmental safeguards with the need to fast-track approvals for new projects.Permitting and regulationOver a third(35.7%)of survey respondents identified skilled personnel shortages as a challenge that needs to be solved.As the demand for renewables continues to grow,more and more skilled people will be required to sustain it.This also comes at a time when most industries are struggling to find the skilled personnel they need while clean energy jobs have grown by 10%12 in the US outgrowing the nations overall employment.There are 3.3 million clean energy jobs,and an increasing number of these positions are carried out by contractors or outside consultancies.Solving this problem will require an emphasis on training,education and apprenticeships tailored specifically to the needs of the renewable industry.Comprehensive programs must be developed that are aimed at attracting talent and nurturing and retaining it with continuous re-and up-skilling,engagement,and purposeful career paths.Skilled personnelSimilar programs will need to be developed to help expand the skillset of the existing renewable workforce.Being adept in technology,management acumen,digital proficiency,and regulatory understanding will all be important moving forward.252024 Trends Report:Renewable Energy and Solar Research Report24RatedPower17.9%of those surveyed see a lack of government incentives as an issue,which is way down from 39%in 2023.This illustrates that more governments around the world are on board with renewables and creating policies that incentivize and help the industry.Although things are heading in the right direction,more can be done.An increased focus on governmental action with less reliance on community engagement is one thing that will help.Policies offering attractive tax breaks and paving the way for public-private partnerships should be a focus.These collaborations can amplify the impact of limited government funds while harnessing private sector expertise and resources at the same time.Throughout 2024 the Inflation Reduction Act13 will keep driving the renewable energy landscape in the US.REPowerEU14 and the Green Deal Industrial Plan15 will continue to move the EU towards its 2030 renewables goals.Governments within the EU are continuing their efforts,such as the Scottish Governments New Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan16,the creation of the UKs Lack of government incentivesSolar Taskforce17,and the German Governments approval of just over 57 billion euros18 in green investments in 2024 to help reach their 2045 target of becoming net-zero.In the rest of the world,we will likely see a continued increase in mid-scale(under 5 MW)solar installations in Australia19 as reduced regulation makes these decentralized projects more attractive to investors.We will also see the effects of Law 14,300,recently approved by ANEEL,the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency20,which will directly impact distributed micro-and mini-generation across the country.Well likely see the effects of the Dominican Republic passing two new bills21(Law No.50-07 and CNE-AD-0004-2023)reducing legislative barriers and incentivizing the use of battery energy storage systems(BESS).Just under one-fifth(17.9%)of respondents see the increased costs associated with renewable energy projects as being a hurdle in 2024.This number was 63%last year,suggesting the market is maturing and becoming more resilient.The high cost of storage technologies stands out as a key challenge,underscoring the need for more affordable solutions.Similarly,investment costs,operations and maintenance,transportation,and deployment challenges are all common concerns.Finding ways to reduce these expenses will rely on technological advancements in areas like storage,streamlining transportation and deployment,as well as leveraging economies of scale to bring down prices.Even with rising upfront costs,renewables long-term economic benefits cannot be ignored.Increased costs272024 Trends Report:Renewable Energy and Solar Research Report26RatedPowerLand availability is another concern of respondents that has dropped by more than half in the last year.While 40%of those surveyed saw it as an issue last year,that figure has come down to 17.9%this year.Many factors could have contributed to this,including b