能源价格上涨对企业层面的影响.pdf

ENERGY SUBSIDY REFORM IN ACTION FIRM-LEVEL EFFECTS OF ENERGY PRICE INCREASESEvidence and Insights from Recent ResearchTECHNICAL REPORTPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedENERGY SUBSIDY REFORM IN ACTION FIRM-LEVEL EFFECTS OF ENERGY PRICE INCREASESEvidence and Insights from Recent ResearchJuergen Amann,Defne Gencer,and Dirk HeineTECHNICAL REPORTABOUT ESMAPThe Energy Sector Management Assistance Program(ESMAP)is a partnership between theWorld Bank andover 20 partnersto help low-and middle-income countries reduce poverty and boost growth through sustainable energy solutions.ESMAPs analytical and advisory services are fully integrated within the World Banks country financing and policy dialogue in the energy sector.Through the WB,ESMAP works to accelerate the energy transition required to achieveSustainable Development Goal 7(SDG7),which ensures access to affordable,reliable,sustainable,and modern energy for all.It helps shape WB strategies and programs to achieve theWB Climate Change Action Plantargets.Learn more at:https:/www.esmap.org.2024 June|International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433Telephone:[phone];Internet:www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved.ABOUT THIS SERIESThis report is part of the“Energy Subsidy Reform in Action”series produced by the ESMAP Energy Subsidy Reform Facility,with the objective of drawing insights from recent experiences and emerging approaches related to reform of energy subsidies in developing countries.The series includes issue-specific reports from various relevant domains such as energy sector reform,macroeconomic and fiscal policy,carbon pricing,poverty and distributional analysis,social protection,political economy,and communications.Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright.Because the World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge,this work may be reproduced,in whole or in part,for noncommercial purposes if full attribution to this work is given.Any queries on rights and licenses,including subsidiary rights,should be addressed to World Bank Publications,World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;fax:[phone];e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.Furthermore,the ESMAP Program Manager would appreciate receiving a copy of the publication that uses this publication for its source sent in care of the address above,or to esmapworldbank.org.This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.Under the Creative Commons Attribution license,you are free to copy,distribute,transmit,and adapt this work,including for commercial purposes,under the following conditions:AttributionJuergen Amann,Defne Gencer,and Dirk Heine.2024.Firm-Level Effects of Energy Price Increases:Evidence and Insights from Recent Research.Energy Subsidy Reform in Action Series.ESMAP Technical Report.Washington,DC:World Bank.License:Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO.Third-Party ContentThe World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work and does not warrant that the use of any third-party owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.If you wish to reuse a component of the work,it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that reuse and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include,but are not limited to,tables,figures,or images.Production CreditsDesigner|Laura C.JohnsoniiiCONTENTSContentsAcknowledgments vExecutive Summary vi1 Introduction xx1.1.Background and First Principles 21.2.What Do Microdata Say about Firm-Level Impacts of Energy Price Changes?41.3.Firm-Level Response Mechanisms to Policy-Induced Energy Price Changes 52 A Summary of the Literature 122.1.Pass-Through 152.2.Absorption 172.3.Substitution 222.4.Innovation and Productivity 243 The Importance of Careful Policy Design 324 Areas for Future Work 34References 37ivLIST OF FIGURESList of FiguresFIGURE 1.1 Firm-Level Response Framework 6FIGURE 2.1 Scope and Coverage of Review 14vACKNOWLEDGMENTSAcknowledgmentsThis report was prepared by staff and consultants of the World Bank and the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program(ESMAP).The underlying analysis was funded by ESMAPs Energy Subsidy Reform Facility.The main authors are Juergen Amann,Defne Gencer,and Dirk Heine.The authors would like to acknowledge colleagues who were involved in different stages of the study,in particular Min A Lee,Noe Reidt,and Tanja Larsen.The production of the report benefited from support from Sherrie Brown for editing services,Laura Johnson for design,and Heather Austin for publications.The authors are particularly grateful to Massimiliano Cali and Paolo Agnolucci,who served as peer reviewers and whose inputs and advice helped strengthen the analysis and the final report.Any errors of interpretation are the sole responsibility of the authors.The authors would like to recognize Demetrios Papathanasiou,Global Director for Energy and Extractives,and Chandrasekar Govindarajalu,Manager of ESMAP,for providing the guidance,encouragement,and resources for this work.EXECUTIVE SUMMARYviExecutive SummaryEnergy is a critical factor of production for firms,and energy subsidies encourage excessive and inefficient energy use.When the government subsidizes any specific input,firms decisions regarding the optimal mix of input factors to produce output are distorted,which can reduce economic efficiency:reducing the price of one particular input encourages firms to use more of it per unit of output,distorting both the amount and the way a good is produced.1 Reforming energy subsidies can help address distortions and misplaced incentives for firms to overuse energy and can encourage firms to allocate production inputs more efficiently.The complex topic of how firms are affected by and respond to policy-induced energy price increases had not been extensively explored in research and the academic literature until recently.In the past few years,more evidence and studies exploring this subject have become available.To better understand emerging knowledge and evidence in this field,this report reviews a selection of the academic and empirical literature on the firm-level impacts of energy price increases published from 2010 onward.The recent empirical literature shows that the impact of energy price increases and firms responses to them depend on multiple factors.These factors include the firms energy dependence,the magnitude of the changes in price levels,and the availability of options the firm can use to adapt and reduce energy consumption in response to price signals.Firms have several response mechanisms at their disposal when confronted with policy-driven energy price increases.Firms typically navigate policy-induced energy price changes by(1)passing the price increase on to customers;(2)absorbing the price increase;(3)replacing one energy carrier2 with others,or changing the relative shares of energy and other inputs;or(4)using firm-level capacity that drives innovation and productivity.The empirical literature identifies substantial cost pass-through by firms in response to energy price increases.Research consistently demonstrates that increased costs stemming from energy price reforms are often passed on to consumers.This dynamic interplay underscores the potential ramifications for overall consumer welfare.Cost pass-through is identified across various levels of analysis,including sectoral,firm-specific,and commodity-based assessments,revealing intricate links within production networks.1.Energy subsidies are input subsidies and tend to be more distortionary than output subsidies,which encourage firms to produce more of their outputs by using any combination of inputs that the firm chooses and will only distort the amount produced.Sometimes,the two categories can be combined;output subsidies for upstream producers in the supply chain for a specific good can become input subsidies for downstream producers.2.An energy carrier can be defined as a“substance or phenomenon that can be used to produce mechanical work or heat or to operate chemical or physical processes”(ISO13600:1997).In the energy value chain,the carriers are the intermediate step between primary energy sources,such as crude oil and coal,and end-use applications,such as lighting,refrigeration,or heating.Examples include electricity;solid,liquid,or gaseous fuels;and heat.FIRM-LEVEL EFFECTS OF ENERGY PRICE INCREASESviiFurthermore,data constraints at the firm level complicate the understanding of capacity-related response patterns,particularly within the context of developing economies.Firms tendency to absorb policy-induced energy price increases varies depending on their characteristics and sectoral attributes.Not surprisingly,businesses in sectors that use substantial amounts of energy tend to react the most when prices go up.Although there is no conclusive evidence for firm exit or significant aggregate employment loss in response to energy price increases,the evidence does suggest potential shifts in the workforce within specific sectors,highlighting the need for careful policy responses.The literature presents compelling evidence of substantial substitution among various production inputs,notably between energy and labor inputs and among different energy sources.The necessary data for analyzing interfuel substitution requires comprehensive information on diverse energy inputs used by firms,which is not commonly available in standard firm-level data sets.Consequently,empirical insights into interfuel substitution mechanisms remain relatively scarce.Nevertheless,the overall picture emerg-ing from the literature highlights widespread substitution.Particularly noteworthy are discernible disparities in the ability of firms to substitute between different fossil fuels,in particular between coal and gas,but also between fuels and electricity.EXECUTIVE SUMMARYviiiFinally,recent research offers insights into the relationship between government interventionenergy price intervention in particularand innovation.The empirical field finds broad support for the weak form of the Porter hypothesis,in which policy interventions trigger innovation.In turn,the research does not appear to offer conclusive support for the strong Porter hypothesis,according to which environmental policy innova-tions spur firm competitiveness,productivity growth,and profitability.Overall,research does offer evidence that firms responses to rising energy prices vary depending on their characteristics,with firm size being a particularly important factor.Another highly relevant aspect is managerial quality,given that well-managed and environmentally conscious firms are typically more responsive and adjust to changes in energy prices more successfully.Finally,firm-level responses to energy price increases vary by energy source or carrier:although firms have been observed to use Porter-type adjust-ment mechanisms in response to fossil fuel price increases,electricity price increases are typically found to have much more significant firm-level impacts,with relatively limited options for adjustment.On aggregate,evidence and analyses from recent research indicate that energy price increases are not necessarily detrimental to firms as they have multiple response mechanisms at their disposal with which to navigate them.First,not all firms may be similarly affected by policy-induced price changes;for example,smaller firms and those in FIRM-LEVEL EFFECTS OF ENERGY PRICE INCREASESixmore energy-intensive sectors tend to be more substantially affected by such policy changes.Second,from a policy perspective,some of the responses by firms may be more desirable than others.For example,if firms can pass through all energy price increases to households,the welfare,socioeconomic,and environmental outcomes from such changes may require further consideration than when firms instead resort to cleaner and more modern production processes.A third and related point is that policy and regulatory choices by governments can mitigate impacts on firms and influence the responses deployed by firms.Indeed,a few studies show that the impact of energy price increases on firms can be reduced if these increases are accompanied by policy measures and govern-ment spending that support innovation and productivity or that are favorable to the private sector and business environment.Such measures may include those aimed at reducing corporate taxes,issuing vouchers to consumers,or investing in public goods crucial for innovation,productivity,and efficiency.Successfully addressing these challenges requires a nuanced understanding of market conditions and tailored policy approaches,underscored by further investigation into firm-level data.Future work on the firm-level impacts of energy price increases and responses to them could focus on gathering additional evidence and documenting novel approaches.The review of recent research pointed to several topics that may be of inter-est,including(1)conducting more granular analyses of firm responses,(2)leveraging novel data and methodologies to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the response mechanisms(3)ensuring the sustainability and inclusiveness of policies that focus on the unique challenges and opportunities faced by firms in developing countries,(4)exploring the effectiveness of various policy incentives and targeted mitigation,and(5)focusing on the use of fiscal savings from energy subsidy reforms for improving firm and sector level outcomes and broadening the scope of the impact to green policies over time.ONEIntroductionFIRM-LEVEL EFFECTS OF ENERGY PRICE INCREASES1Energy is an essential production input for firms.In market-based economies,a firms objective is to maximize profits by combining energy with other inputs,such as labor,capital,and natural resources,to produce goods and services.The prices of these different production inputs determine how much of each resource firms use.1 Government subsi-dies to any specific input distort firms calculus in determining the optimal mix of input factors and encourage them to use more of the subsidized input per unit of output.This alters both the amount and the way a good is produced and leads to overall economic inefficiency.Governments around the world have been subsidizing the production and consump-tion of energy for decades.2 The main arguments in favor of energy subsidies tend to include a combination of shielding domestic producers from global fuel price volatility and making cheap energy available to lower-income households,thereby serving as a redistrib-utive measure.Although there may be benefits conferred by energy subsidies to certain segments of the