全球电力报告（2024年上半年）.pdf

Electricity Mid-Year UpdateJuly 2024The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYElectricity Mid-Year Update Abstract July 2024 PAGE|3 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract Despite the enduring impacts of the global energy crisis,growth in electricity demand has remained robust in the first half of 2024 due to solid economic activity in many regions,intense heatwaves and continued electrification.This mid-year update,which follows the Electricity 2024 report published in January,explores these trends and their implications for 2025.It features the latest data for 2023 and new 2024 and 2025 forecasts for global electricity demand,supply by fuel type,and carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions from the power sector.It also analyses the latest developments in major markets,including China,the United States,the European Union and India.The report includes a special focus on electricity demand trends in Europe and their drivers,as well as recent developments related to the global data centre sector and its electricity consumption.In addition,this update provides a comprehensive analysis of the increasing prevalence of negative electricity prices in various power markets worldwide.Electricity Mid-Year Update Acknowledgements July 2024 PAGE|4 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits This study was prepared by the Gas,Coal and Power Markets(GCP)Division of the International Energy Agency(IEA).It was designed and directed by Eren am,Energy Analyst for Electricity.The main authors are:Eren am,Carlos David Yez de Len,Matthew Davis,and Shrey Mehta.Keisuke Sadamori,Director of the IEA Energy Markets and Security(EMS)Directorate and Dennis Hesseling,Head of GCP,provided expert guidance and advice.Valuable comments and support were provided by other senior management within the IEA,in particular,Tim Gould.In addition,expert guidance and invaluable insights from Carlos Fernndez lvarez,Senior Energy Analyst,are greatly appreciated.The report also benefited from analysis,data and input from Marc Casanovas,Carole Etienne,Keith Everhart,Julian Keutz,Gergely Molnr and Frederick Ritter.IEA colleagues across the agency provided helpful comments and feedback,in particular,Heymi Bahar,Alessandro Blasi,Stphanie Bouckaert,Javier Jorquera Copier,Ciarn Healy,Araceli Fernandez Pales,Brent Wanner,and Jacques Warichet.The authors would also like to thank Diane Munro for skilfully editing the manuscript and the IEA Communication and Digital Office,in particular,Jethro Mullen,Oliver Joy,Astrid Dumond,and Clara Vallois.We also thank Einar Einarsson for his assistance on setting up the necessary IT infrastructure.From outside of the IEA,Christina Christopoulou(AWS),Antonia Gawel(Google),and George Kamiya(Expert on ICT energy),reviewed the report and provided valuable input and comments.Questions or comments?Please write to us at gcpiea.org or eren.camiea.orgElectricity Mid-Year Update Table of contents July 2024 PAGE|5 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.6 Demand:Global electricity use set to grow much faster in 2024-2025.10 Electricity demand in China propelled higher by a rapid rise in EV and solar PV production.11 European electricity demand recovering but uncertainty over the pace of growth remains.13 Heatwaves continued to strain power systems around the world in 2024.17 Indias summer electricity demand surges amidst prolonged heatwaves.18 Electricity demand from data centres is in focus with the rise of artificial intelligence.19 Supply:Renewable generation will overtake coal-fired power in 2025.26 Fossil-fired generation fell in the EU but rose in India,China and the US in H1 2024.28 Hydropower output was reduced in various regions in H1 2024 due to weather impact.31 Emissions:Power generation CO2 emissions plateau in 2024-2025.34 Increased emissions in India are more than offset by declines in Europe and the United States.34 Prices:Wholesale electricity prices continue to diverge across regions.36 Gas drives electricity prices higher in Europe,while US markets remain stable on average.36 Negative electricity prices are becoming increasingly common in some regions.38 General annex.46 Summary tables.46 Regional and country groupings.48 Abbreviations and acronyms.50 Units of measure.50 Electricity Mid-Year Update Executive summary July 2024 PAGE|6 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary In 2024 and 2025,the worlds electricity demand is set to grow at the fastest pace since its post-Covid rebound Over the 2024-2025 forecast period of this report,global electricity consumption is expected to increase at the fastest pace in years,fuelled by robust economic growth,intense heatwaves and continued electrification worldwide.The 4%growth expected for 2024 is the highest since 2007,with the exceptions of the sharp rebounds in 2010 after the global financial crisis and in 2021 following the Covid-induced demand collapse.The growth is driven by strong electricity demand in multiple regions and countries,especially in the Peoples Republic of China(hereafter,“China”),India and the United States.We expect this demand trend to continue in 2025,with growth also at 4%.In both 2024 and 2025,the rise in the worlds electricity use is projected to be significantly higher than global GDP growth of 3.2%.In 2022 and 2023,electricity demand grew more slowly than GDP.Electricity demand in China is forecast to increase by 6.5%in 2024,similar to its average rate between 2016 and 2019.This still strong annual growth represents a modest slowdown from 7%in 2023 amid the ongoing restructuring of the Chinese economy.Electricity consumption in 2024 and 2025 is expected to be driven by robust activity in the services industries and various industrial sectors,including a rapid rise in solar PV,electric vehicle(EV)and battery production,and the electricity-intensive processing of related materials.Continued expansion of 5G networks and data centres as well as strong EV uptake in the domestic market are also contributing factors.Over the last three years,China has been adding electricity demand roughly equivalent to that of Germany each year,on average,and this trend is expected to continue through 2025,with growth forecast at 6.2%.India,the fastest growing major economy in the world,is forecast to post an 8%rise in electricity consumption in 2024,matching the rapid growth it saw in 2023.This is supported by strong GDP growth and increased cooling demand due to long and intense heatwaves.In the first half of 2024,the country grappled with heatwaves of record duration,with peak load reaching a new high and putting exceptional strains on power systems.Assuming a return to average weather conditions,we expect electricity demand growth in India to ease moderately to 6.8%in 2025.Electricity demand in the United States is set to rebound significantly in 2024,increasing by 3%year-on-year.The stronger growth rate is due,in part,to the comparison with 2023 when demand declined by 1.6%amid mild weather.Electricity Mid-Year Update Executive summary July 2024 PAGE|7 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Electricity consumption is boosted by an improved economic outlook as well as rising demand for air conditioning amid severe heatwaves and the surge in data centre expansions.Demand is forecast to rise by 1.9%in 2025.Electricity demand in the European Union is expected to increase by 1.7%in 2024 as economic difficulties ease,but uncertainty over the pace of growth remains.EU electricity consumption had contracted over the two previous years,with the decline in output from energy-intensive industries an important driver.Signs of a recovery in EU electricity demand emerged starting in the fourth quarter of 2023.Growth gained further traction during the first half of 2024 as energy prices stabilised and various industries that had previously curtailed operations restarted.Nevertheless,while coming down from previous highs,energy prices in Europe are still elevated compared with pre-Covid levels.This,combined with a moderately sluggish macroeconomic outlook,continues to weigh on some industries and raises uncertainties over the pace of the demand recovery.The rise of artificial intelligence(AI)has put the electricity consumption of data centres in focus,making better stocktaking more important than ever.In many regions,historical estimates of data centres electricity consumption are hampered by a lack of reliable data.At the same time,future projections include a very wide range of uncertainties related to the pace of deployment,the diverse and expanding applications of AI,and the potential for energy efficiency improvements.Expanding and improving the collection of electricity demand data from the sector will be crucial to identify past developments correctly and to understand future trends better.The International Energy Agency(IEA)has been a frontrunner in studying the links between the energy sector and digitalisation.To provide more insight into the topic,the IEA will be hosting the Global Conference on Energy and AI in December 2024,bringing together governments,industry,researchers and other stakeholders.Heatwaves continue to strain power systems worldwide Many regions struggled with intense heatwaves in the first half of 2024,which elevated electricity demand and strained power grids.May 2024 was the hottest month since global records began and the 12th consecutive month of record-high temperatures.India,Mexico,Pakistan,the United States,Viet Nam,and many other countries saw severe heatwaves with surging peak loads due to the increased need for cooling.As more households begin to purchase air conditioners(ACs),the impact will grow substantially,particularly in emerging economies where the proportion of households with ACs is currently much lower compared with advanced economies with comparable climates.Implementing higher efficiency standards for air conditioning will be crucial to mitigate the impact of increased cooling demand on power systems.The expansion and reinforcement of power grids will also be very important to ensure reliability.Electricity Mid-Year Update Executive summary July 2024 PAGE|8 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Clean energy sources will set new records through 2025 Despite the sharp rise in electricity use,solar PV alone is expected to meet roughly half of the growth in global electricity demand to 2025.Together with wind power generation,it will make up almost 75%of the increase.Global electricity generation from solar PV and wind is expected to surpass that from hydropower in 2024.This follows a massive 33%year-on-year increase in global solar PV generation and sustained growth in wind generation of 10%.The global energy transition is set to achieve another significant milestone by 2025,with total renewable generation poised to overtake coal-fired electricity output.The share of renewables in global electricity supply rose to 30%in 2023 and is projected to climb further to 35%in 2025.In the European Union,wind and solar PV generation is set to exceed fossil-fired output in 2024.Wind and solar PVs combined share in total electricity supply is forecast to rise from 26%in 2023 to 30%in 2024,and to 33%in 2025.The primary driver is the rapid growth of solar PV,led by reduced prices of solar modules combined with strong policy support.The share of all renewable energies in total generation is expected to reach 50%in 2024.Global nuclear generation is on track to reach a new high in 2025,surpassing its previous record in 2021.Nuclear generation is forecast to rise globally by 1.6%in 2024,and by 3.5%in 2025.This growth is supported by a steady increase in output by the French nuclear power fleet as maintenance works are completed,by the restarting of reactors in Japan,and by new reactors coming online in various markets,including China,India,Korea and Europe.Power sector emissions are plateauing,with a slight increase in 2024 followed by a decline in 2025 Coal-fired output is set to remain resilient in 2024 due to strong electricity demand growth,hindering a decline in global power sector CO2 emissions.Despite the rapid growth of renewables,the brisk increase in electricity consumption,especially in China and India,is resulting in the use of more coal-fired generation to meet demand.Global coal-fired output is expected to increase by less than 1%in 2024,but this is highly dependent on hydropower trends,especially in China.Chinese hydropower output rebounded strongly in the first half of 2024 from its 2023 low,and a further improvement in hydropower trends in the second half of the year could curb coal-fired power generation and reduce global power sector emissions.Global natural gas-fired output is forecast to grow on average by around 1%over the 2024-2025 period.Significant declines in Europe are set to be offset by increases in Asia,amid rising LNG imports,and in the Middle East,driven by switching from oil-fired to gas-fired generation.Electricity Mid-Year Update Executive summary July 2024 PAGE|9 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Global CO2 emissions from electricity generation are set to remain broadly on a plateau through 2025.The slight increase in power sector emissions in 2024 is expected to be followed by a decrease of less than 1%in 2025.This will be driven by a modest fall in coal-fired output due to further expansion of clean energy sources and the continued decline in oil-fired generation.While extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves and droughts,as well as economic shocks or changes in government policies,can cause an uptick in emissions in individual years,the structural trend of clean energy sources constraining fossil fuels will remain robust.The United States is forecast to see an uptick in power sector CO2 emissions in 2024 before a decline in 2025.The United States is one of the few advanced economies that will see its power sector CO2 emissions rise in 2024,though they will still be almos