1、OneBeltandOneRoad“OneBeltandOneRoad”“OneBeltandOneRoadshortforSilkRoadEconomicBeltand21stCenturyMaritimeSilkRoadEssenceOBORisnotanentityandthemechanism,itisaeconomiccooperationconcept,andbelongstothemultinationaleconomicbelt.OBOR is a development strategy and framework that focuses onconnectivity an
2、d cooperation among countries primarily in Eurasia,which consists of two main components,the land-based Silk RoadEconomicBelt(SREB)andoceangoingMaritimeSilkRoad(MSR).OBOR aims at borrow the ancient symbolsilk road,and carry thebanner of peaceful development,actively develop an economicpartnership wi
3、th countries along the Silk Road and regions,to buildcommunityofinterest,fatecommunityandcommunityinresponsibilityofpoliticalmutualtrust,economicintegration,culturallytolerantCountriesandregionsalongthe“OneBelt,OneRoad”datasuchaspopulationandeconomicscaleDevelopregionaleconomyAbsorbexcesscapacityRed
4、uceforeignexchangereserveWhydoChinawanttocarryoutOneBelt,OneRoad?Forthenation123DrivecapacityoutputbycapitaloutputStrengtheninternationalcooperationReversebalanceofpaymentssituationFortheword:InfrastructureNetworksSourcesoffundsAIIBisaproposedinternationalfinancialinstitutionwhichisfocusedonsupporti
5、nginfrastructureconstructionintheAsia-Pacificregion.SCODBismultilateraldevelopmentfinanceinstitution,anditexpandcooperationinthesettlementinlocalcurrenciesandpromotetheeconomyandtradecommunionofregionsbyjointcontributionandjointbenefitNewDevelopmentBankisaproposedinternationalfinancialinstitutionwhi
6、chisfocusedonsupportinginfrastructureconstructionofthese5BRICSandotherdevelopingcountries.SIFisastateownedinvestmentfundoftheChinesegovernmenttofosterincreasedinvestmentincountriesalongtheOneBelt,OneRoad,aneconomicdevelopmentinitiativeprimarilycoveringEurasia.ThefivemajorCo-operationpolicycoordinati
7、onunimpededtradefinancialintegrationfacilitiesconnectivitypeople-to-peoplebondsimportantcontentpriorityareasimportantsupportingimportantguaranteesocialfoundationTheBack-upForceofOBOR123456land silk roadmaritime Silk Road1.High-speeddiplomacy2.ShanghaiCooperationOrganizationDevelopmentBank3.SilkRoadf
8、und4.AsianInfrastructureInvestmentBank(AIIB)5.Nucleardiplomacy6.BRICSBankOBOR“construction”RelationshipbetweenOBORandAIIBTheimplementationofOneBeltandOneRoadstratgyrequiresalargenumberofinvestmentfromfinancialinstitutions,includingAIIB.TheaidprogramofAIIB,whichtargetstheconstructionofinfrastructurei
9、nAsian-Pacificregion,overlapswithOBORstrategy.ISSUESOvercapacityProblemResourcesAquisitionNationalSecurityTradeInitiativeTransportationNetworkOvercapacityProblemOvercapacityProblem1.OBORopensupnewexportmarketstocompetewithAmericaandJapan.2.Ithelpsemergingmarketcountriesandlessdevelopedcountriesininf
10、rastructureconstruction,usingthesufficientforeignexchangereservestosolvetheovercapacityproblemResourcesAquisitionChinasoilandgasresourcesarehighlydependentonoverseasmineralresources.OBORwillbuildsomeeffectivechannelstogetresouces.Itcontributestotheresourcesdiversification.NationalSecurityTheindustry
11、andinfrastructureofcoastalregion,westernareaandcentralareaneedtobeprotectedfromexternalconcealedthreats.OBORwillimprovethecapabilitytostrengthenthenationalsecurityatriskofconflict.TradeInitiativeOBORwillmakeChinahaveagreatersayinglobalmarketandregionaleconomy.TransportationNetworkWithbuildingatransp
12、ortationnetworkintheneighboringarea,OBORwillpromotetheexporttradeandmobilizationofresouces.ChinasRegionsinPursuingOpening-UpChinainActionHigh-levelguidanceandfacilitation.Signingcooperationframework.Promotingprojectcooperation.Improvingpoliciesandmeasures.Boostingtheroleofcooperationplatforms.Fund-J
13、une 29th,2015.-57 countries-Legal capital:$100bn-Dec 29th,2014.-Beijing,China.-Legal capital:$40bn-Supported by four national organization-July 21st,2015.-Five countries-In Shanghai,China.-Sep 11th,2014.-Discussed.14th Summit-Not officially founded yet.-57 members-$100billion-China(30.3%)1st-Korea(3
14、.8%)5th“to build better infrastructure in developing countries”-The Netherlands,Germany,France,and other many countries are favorable to the foundation of AIIBNewsArticles30.3%30.3%26%of votes26%of votes 75%75%25%25%1.Fourfinancialplatformswillsolveexistingmoneyproblemsolveexistingmoneyproblem.2.Fou
15、rfinancialplatformswillpromoteeconomicdevelopmentpromoteeconomicdevelopmentofnumerouscountries.3.Asthefourplatformspursueopen-doorpolicyenoughfinancialbackupenoughfinancialbackupforOBOR4.Fourfinancialplatformswillenablesustainableinvestmentsustainableinvestment.5.Fourfinancialplatformswillenabledeve
16、lopingcountriestohaveloudervoicehaveloudervoice.AIIB1.AIIBwillplaythemainroleplaythemainroleinOneBeltOneRoadproject.-SolveinequalityproblemSolveinequalityproblemamongnationsbyredistributingresourcesandbetterinvestmentconditionsbetterinvestmentconditions-ParticipationofprivatecompaniesaredesperatePar
17、ticipationofprivatecompaniesaredesperateaswell,butastheinvestmentvehiclesaredevelopingcountries,privatecompaniesmaynotbeattractedmaynotbeattractedtoinvestmentproposals.-Toaddresstheissue,AIIBshouldguaranteeAIIBshouldguaranteesafeinvestmentandminimizedloss.AssessmentofFinancialPlatformToChina:1.Todig
18、estovercapacity:Chinastotalcapacityutilizationdoesnotexceed65%,buttraditionalexportmarkethasopenedupinamorefullbyUnitedStatesandEurope.Meanwhile,thecountriesalongtherouteofOneBeltOneRoadlacktheinfrastructure,whojustneedcost-effectiveChineseconstructionbusiness.Chinaalsohastheexcessofforeignexchangea
19、ssets.Chinausesitshugeforeignexchangereservesaccumulatedasacapitaltoboostglobalgrowthandusesitsexportofcapitaltodigestitsexcesscapacity.2.Torevitalizethestockoftheeconomy:ThepromotionofOBORisconducivetotheexpansionofcross-borderuseofRMBintheperipheralregion,RMBpaymentsystemandtheutilizationofthehuge
20、foreignexchangereserves.Aftertheabolishofgeographicrestrictions,ChinesedomesticenterprisesandcommercialbankscouldissueRMBbondsinoffshoretohelpthecirculationofRMBintheinternationalmarket.3.TostrengthenNationalSecurity:OBORcannotonlyhedgetheUS-ledTPP(Trans-Pacificrelationsagreement),TTIP(trans-Atlanti
21、cpartnerstonegotiate),whichattempttoisolateChina,butalsoprovidetheopportunityforChinatoparticipateinthedevelopmentofnewglobaltraderules.ShanghaiFTAShanghaiFreeTradeZone-InternationaltransferportChinas industrial and infrastructure are concentrated in coastal areas,and there is a great potential for
22、theirdevelopmentincentralandwesternregions.SignificantTotheWorld:1.Neweconomicgrowthstimulation:Theglobaleconomicrecoveryisslowdownandmonetarypolicyindevelopedeconomiestrends to differentiation.Economies of many countries face difficulties and need a neweconomicgrowthenginetodrivetheworldeconomy.The
23、projectionofOBORbenefitsChinaandmostcountries,becauseitseeksnewimpetustotheglobaleconomicrecoveryandmobilizesnewinvestmenttoachievethewin-winsituation.2.RegionalCollaboration:OBOR breaks the original development model of spot and block patterns and extendsverticallyandhorizontally,connectingAsia-Pac
24、ificEconomicCircleintheeasttheEuropeaneconomiczoneinthewest,consideredastheworldslongest,mostdevelopmentpotentialeconomiccorridor.This strategy helps the further deepen China-ASEAN cooperation and regional economicintegration,buildingclosercommunity,andseekingthecoordinateddevelopmentinlinewiththest
25、rategicinterestsofAsia-Pacific,Asia-Europeandmostmemberstates.SignificantChallengesOBORstrategyisaninevitableoutcomeofcurrentglobalstatus,anditalsofacesdifficulties.a.Specificdifficultiesduringtheimplementationofinvestmentprojects:1.Theenvironmentalimpactoflarge-scaleinvestment2.Changingrisksofforei
26、gnpolicy3.Breaking-in with various foreign countries cultures,customs,eveninstitutionsb.Howtodealwithrelationsofbigpowers:theUnitedStates,Russia,Indiac.Howtodealwithrelationsofsmallcountries:Scruples:NotThreaten-JointDevelopmentHotDiscussion“NewNormal”TrapWorld:SinceSubprimeCrisis:the8thyearofloweco
27、nomicgrowth,lowinterestratesandexpandinggovernmentinterventionKeynesianstimulus:UnconventionalMonetaryPolicy(UMP):(Liquiditymanagement:short-termnominalinterestrate-centralbanksbalancesheetstructure,content)ZeroInterestRatePolicy(ZIRP)QuantitativeEasing(QE)NewNormal:aTrapofDebtandMoneyFinancialmarke
28、tbubbleSoaringdebts-economicslowdownAstheNewNormalTrapdeepens,therecanbeadesperatecallforbreakthroughChinapresentsnewglobalfinancial&economicparadigmIfbankloansstop,moneysupplyshrinksandcausesdeflationwhichmeanslessmoneytogoaround(liquiditycrisis),causingmassivedefaultondebtSource:FRBofST.LouisHotDi
29、scussion“NewNormal”TrapChina:OROB:StimulateRealEconomicGrowthAnewwheelofgrowthtoovercomeNewNormalConnectingAsiatoEuropethroughnewcontinentalandmaritimesilkroadsNewinvestmentsineconomic&socialinfrastructuresoftheregionwillraiseproductivityNewinfra-connectedareaswillformnewmarketsandboostdemandandgrow
30、thReconnectingmoney&investmentwithgrowthofproductivity&demandChinesestyleNewMarshallPlanwithwin-winstrategyProvidesnewglobaleconomicgrowthopportunitiesNewglobalfinancialandeconomicparadigmispossibleOROBisChinasmessagetotheworldaboutbuildingnewgrowthplatformApackageofcomprehensivestrategies:AIIB,OROBandRMBInternationalizationAIIBtooffernewmodelofinvestment,cooperationandfinancialalternativeRapidRMBinternationalizationboostAIIBandOROBprospectsChinapresentsnewglobalfinancial&economicparadigm