2020全球制药行业评估与展望.pdf

EvaluatePharmaWorld Preview 2020,Outlook to 202613th Edition July 2020Welcome to the EvaluatePharma World Preview 2020,Outlook to 2026The thirteenth edition of EvaluatePharmas World Preview brings together our most popular analyses to provide top-level insights into the expected performance of the biopharma industry between now and 2026,based on EvaluatePharmas coverage of the worlds leading pharmaceutical and biotech companies.This years World Preview highlights trends in prescription drug sales,patent risk,R&D spend,global brand sales and market performance by therapy area.Also included are our latest analyses on innovation,risk and return,using data from EvaluatePharma Vision,as well as a new analysis of the impact on the biopharma industry outlook from COVID-19.Complimentary copies of the full report can be downloaded at: intellectual property rights in this report remain that of Evaluate Ltd and/or its respective third party licensors.Whilst all reasonable steps have been taken to ensure that the data presented are accurate,Evaluate Ltd cannot accept responsibility for errors or omissions.Neither does Evaluate Ltd warrant the accuracy,merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of the data.Nothing in the reports shall constitute investment,financial or legal advice and the contents of the reports are provided for information purposes only.The data is not intended to amount to advice and should not be used as a determining factor in any investment decision.This report,and the data it contains,may not be lent,resold,hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published,without the prior written consent of Evaluate Ltd.Copyright 2020 Evaluate Ltd.All rights reserved.2EvaluatePharma World Preview 2020Copyright 2020 Evaluate Ltd.All rights reserved.ForewordFew could have predicted the global events leading up to this years EvaluatePharma World Preview 2020.The COVID-19 pandemic has cast a long shadow over the pharmaceutical industry which is battling to find treatments and indeed over all the citizens of the world,who are adjusting to new ways of living and working.The long-term impact of the pandemic on the biopharma industry is still largely unknown.As such,many of the forecasts in this years report will have been made in something of a vacuum.Some of the economic and social disruptions have already been felt,however.Physical distancing and lockdown measures across the world have translated into fewer doctor visits,the cancellation of routine operations and delays to many patients starting new treatments.Hundreds of clinical trials have been mothballed and trial readouts delayed;smaller developers in particular are exposed here,as they rely on fresh data for financial injections and partnering agreements.M&A transactions have also stalled,as company executives get to grips with international travel bans and virtual due diligence.But the longer the disruption,the more likely it becomes that regulatory decisions will slow,as agencies grapple with their own staffing issues.Then there is the wider macro-economic picture.The loss of jobs and productivity means that many are predicting a global economic recession,leaving governments and individuals with less to spend on healthcare.The situation in the US,the worlds biggest healthcare market,could have the biggest repercussions for the sector,as a ballooning unemployment rate shifts millions of citizens from private insurance coverage.Investors,however,have largely shrugged off the pandemic risks,with the potential seen in experimental COVID-19 treatments apparently outweighing any short-term hits to performance.It remains to be seen whether the pandemic will also impact drug approvals,the lifeblood of the industry.3EvaluatePharma World Preview 2020Copyright 2020 Evaluate Ltd.All rights reserved.ForewordMerck&Co predicted the biggest impact on its pharmaceutical revenues of the big pharma groups,shaving$1.7bn from its 2020 sales guidance;however,many other groups have benefited from stockpiling of medicines.Ryan WatersSenior Analyst,Evaluate LtdAt this stage,most large drug makers are working on the basis of a return to business as usual by the end of the year.EvaluatePharma predicts that prescription drug sales will grow 3.7%this year,to$904bn.It is not hard to find healthy levels of growth throughout this report,driven by demand for the new therapies that the biopharma sector is pushing through its pipeline.The need for effective and innovative ways to treat disease is something that even a global pandemic will not blunt.Lisa UrquhartEditor,Evaluate Vantage4EvaluatePharma World Preview 2020Copyright 2020 Evaluate Ltd.All rights reserved.Analysis Highlights Prescription drug sales expected to reach almost$1.4trn in 2026.Despite the COVID-19 pandemic causing near-term challenges across the healthcare sector,the industry demand for innovative and effective therapies continues to drive long-term growth.Keytruda set to be the top selling drug worldwide in 2026 with$24.9bn sales,a forecast almost double that of its closest rival.Humira drops out of the worldwide and USA top 10 in 2026 following adalimumab biosimilar entry in the EU and USA biosimilar competition expected from 2023.+7.4%CAGR*2020-26*Compound Annual Growth Rate.DRIVERSWorldwide Prescription Drug Sales 2020-26 in figuresProportion of 2026industry sales fromoncology therapies($311bn)21.7%Number of FDA NMEapprovals anticipatedfrom current clinicalpipeline530Additional salesin 2026 frombiotechnologyproducts vs.2019$239bn2020-26 CAGR fororphan drugs10.8%BRAKES2020 consensusforecast changebetween March andJune in responseto the COVID-19pandemic-$7.8bn2019-26 CAGR declinefor anti-rheumaticsas Humira,Enbreland Remicade facebiosimilar competition-1.9%Sales at riskbetween 2020 and2026 due topatent expiries$252bn2019-26 CAGR of industryR&D spend,down from4.6%between 2012-19.Increasing pressure on pharma innovationor R&D efcienciesimproving?+3.2%5EvaluatePharma World Preview 2020Copyright 2020 Evaluate Ltd.All rights reserved.Analysis Highlights Roche will be the leading prescription drug company in 2026 with sales of$61.0bn,retaining its top spot from 2019.Bristol-Myers Squibb will be the seventh largest prescription drug company by revenues in 2026 following its acquisition of Celgene.AbbVie moves up to fifth place following its acquisition of Allergan.Eli Lillys anti-diabetic and obesity drug tirzepatide is currently the most valuable project in the pharmaceutical industry pipeline,with an NPV of$7.8bn.Roche to remain the top biotechnology company,with a forecast$48.6bn of biologic sales in 2026,despite a decrease in biotech revenue market share of-5.8%owing to the effect of biosimilars.Oncology is the area with the largest proportion of clinical development spending,with 37.4%of total pipeline expenditure and 28.7%of total pipeline FDA approvals.Oncology will contribute 21.7%of total pharmaceutical sales in 2026,with immuno-oncology sales increasing to$94.7bn between 2019-26 at a CAGR of 20.2%.Industry R&D spend is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 3.2%to 2026,lower than the CAGR of 4.6%between 2012 and 2019.Roche to be biggest spender on pharmaceutical R&D in 2026.6EvaluatePharma World Preview 2020Copyright 2020 Evaluate Ltd.All rights reserved.Table of ContentsContents 8 COVID-19:Industry Impact12 Pharma Innovation:Risk&Return16 Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales(2012-2026)18 Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2026:Top 10 Companies20 Worldwide Prescription Drug&OTC Sales by Technology(2012-2026)22 Top 10 Most Valuable R&D Projects(Ranked by Net Present Value)23 Worldwide R&D Spend by Pharma&Biotech Companies(2012-2026)25 Pharmaceutical R&D Spend in 2026:Top 10 Companies26 Worldwide Prescription Drug&OTC Sales by Therapy Area in 202628 2026:Top 10 Selling Products in the World30 2026:Top 10 Selling Products in the USA7EvaluatePharma World Preview 2020Copyright 2020 Evaluate Ltd.All rights reserved.8EvaluatePharma World Preview 2020Copyright 2020 Evaluate Ltd.All rights reserved.COVID-19:Industry ImpactCOVID-19 pandemic causes overall decrease in 2020 forecasts;Merck&Co experiences the greatest forecast decline.Since the start of the global lockdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,analyst forecasts for 2020 product sales have dropped by$4.9bn for the top 15 companies.With a decrease of$1.25bn,Merck&Co is expected to lose the most sales this year of the top 15 companies,due to the pandemic.Around two thirds of the companys pharmaceutical revenue is derived from physician-administered products,which have been heavily impacted by social distancing measures leading to fewer patient visits;Keytrudas 2020 forecasts alone have decreased by$448m.In its Q1 2020 results,Gilead announced that its HIV portfolio experienced a boost in sales due to increased customer stockpiling in response to the pandemic,along with the continued strong uptake of Biktarvy,leading analysts to increase the drugs forecast by$788m.The company noted that it expects this sales boost to reverse in subsequent quarters,as access to clinics and fewer new patient starts impact demand for its HIV and hepatitis C products.On May 1st,2020,the company received Emergency Use Authorisation from the US FDA for Veklury(remdesivir)for the treatment of COVID-19.Consensus forecast sales in 2020 have grown by$528m since March,with further forecast revisions expected from sell-side analysts after Gilead announced their pricing of remdesivir on June 29th,2020,and the European Commission granted remdesivir conditional marketing authorisation on July 3rd,2020.Many of the top 15 companies have experienced decreased demand for physician-administered products.Novartis is expected to experience a loss of demand for its ophthalmology portfolio,with forecasts for Beovu and Lucentis declining by$185m and$102m respectively.Analysts anticipate a similar effect on demand for AbbVies Humira(-$278m)and hepatitis C treatment Mavyret(-$203m).In its Q1 2020 results,Roche noted a decreased demand for some of its chronic disease and cancer portfolio,however,analysts raised 2020 forecasts by$301m for Actemra following the products use as a COVID-19 treatment.As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic,GSK has seen increased demand for the now off-patent respiratory drug Ventolin HFA and has also experienced buyer stockpiling of HIV regimen Tivicay,causing analysts to raise their 2020 forecasts by$97m and$102m respectively.part 1 of 4500Total 2020 Product Forecast Change($m)-500Source:EvaluatePharma,June 2020Figure 1:Total 2020 Product Consensus Forecast Change Between March and June:Top 15 Companies by 2020 Product Sales1,000-1,000-1,500GlaxoSmithKlineEli LillyGilead SciencesTakedaJohnson&JohnsonBristol-Myers SquibbAmgenAstraZenecaNovartisAbbVieSanofiRocheBayerPfizerMerck&Co0Gains:Tivicay$102m(+5.2%)Ventolin HFA$97m(+10.5%)Losses:Keytruda-$448m(-3.1%)Bridion-$157m(-12.0%)Gardasil-$111(-2.6%)Losses:Humira-$278m(-1.4%)Mavyret-$203m(-8.3%)Losses:Beovu-$185m(-49.8%)Zolgensma-$112m(-10.8%)Lucentis-$102m(-4.9%)Gains:Biktarvy$788m(+12.0%)Veklury(remdesivir)$528mLosses:Truvada-$803m(-36.5%)Genvoya-$280m(-8.3%)Gains:Actemra$301m(+14.6%)Losses:Herceptin-$334m(-6.6%)Lucentis-$191m(-10.4%)9EvaluatePharma World Preview 2020Copyright 2020 Evaluate Ltd.All rights reserved.COVID-19:Industry Impactpart 2 of 4WW Product Consensus ForecastRankCompany2020 Sales($bn)Change March-June 2020($m)Change as%of current forecast1.GlaxoSmithKline31.76502.1%2.Eli Lilly21.52431.1%3.Gilead Sciences21.5770.4%4.Takeda28.8560.2%5.Johnson&Johnson43.7-70.0%6.Bristol-Myers Squibb41.0-119-0.3%7.Amgen24.1-285-1.2%8.AstraZeneca25.2-330-1.3%9.Novartis39.5-378-1.0%10.AbbVie42.8-512-1.2%11.Sanofi32.7-592-1.8%12.Roche48.6-619-1.3%13.Bayer20.7-657-3.2%14.Pfizer39.9-1,188-3.0%15.Merck&Co39.6-1,251-3.2%Total Top 15501.3-4,912-1.0%Table 1:Total 2020 Product Consensus Forecast Change Between March and June:Top 15 Companies by 2020 Product SalesSource:EvaluatePharma,June 202010EvaluatePharma World Preview 2020Copyright 2020 Evaluate Ltd.All rights reserved.COVID-19:Industry Impactpart 3 of 4EvaluatePharma finds that the greatest impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on near-term forecasts is concentrated in areas with mainly physician-administered drugs and chronic diseases.Products treating diseases affecting the central nervous system have experienced the highest overall 2020 forecast change of any therapy area,decreasing by$1,442m from March to June.Social distancing and lockdown measures have made accessing clinics more difficult,caused fewer surgeries and prompted patients to delay appointments.This has lowered demand for products such as Mercks anaesthesia agent Bridion and Roches multiple sclerosis(MS)treatment Ocrevus.Musculoskeletal drugs have experienced a 2020 forecast decrease of$1,234m,with reduced demand for drugs like Humira and Prolia caused by fewer new patient starts and barriers to in-clinic injections,despite positive inventory stocking effects experienced for some drugs.A reduction in new patient starts for immunosuppressive therapies for conditions like rheumatoid arthritis and MS has also been observed during the pandemic,in order to avoid immunocompromising vulnerable patients.Sales of medical aesthetics such as AbbVies Botox are expected to be heavily impacted as patients are discouraged against non-emergency procedures during the pandemic(products formerly of Allergan are not included in the below analysis see methodology*).Analyst forecasts for products in the oncology and blood disease areas have also declined in the near-term,with drugs in these areas being mainly physician-administered;additional factors such as prioritisation of COVID-19 patients at hospitals and clinics may have contributed to the reduction in demand.Endocrine therapies have also experienced an overall forecast decrease of$840m,despite some positive stocking effects seen for some products such as Eli Lillys diabetes portfolio,including Trulicity.Bayer experienced a decline in business in China for its diabetes treatment Precose(Glucobay),following restrictions in connection with the pandemic.Outside the top five,sensory organs experienced a forecast decrease of$715m,largely attributed to patients delaying treatment during lockdown due to reduced access to clinics,resulting in forecast declines for ophthalmic treatments such as Eylea and Lucentis.Systemic anti-infectives had a 2020 forecast decline of only$27m.Some positive effects have been seen in this area,including stockpiling of some HIV medications such as Tivicay and Biktarvy,whilst some companies have reported the increased use of certain vaccines and anti-infective products in response to the pandemic.However,these positive effects have been outweighed by an expected decrease in demand,notably across HIV,hepatitis C and vaccines,which has been driven by limited access to healthcare professionals and fewer patients seekin