2021年全球电动汽车展望.pdf

Global EV Outlook 2021Accelerating ambitions despite the pandemicThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries,8 association countries and beyond.Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution.The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.All rights reserved.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.org IEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States IEA association countries:Brazil China India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE|1 Abstract IEA.All rights reserved.AbstractThe Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that identifies and discusses recent developments in electric mobility across the globe.It is developed with the support of the members of the Electric Vehicles Initiative(EVI).Combining historical analysis with projections to 2030,the report examines key areas of interest such as electric vehicle(EV)and charging infrastructure deployment,energy use,CO2 emissions and battery demand.The report includes policy recommendations that incorporate learning from frontrunner markets to inform policy makers and stakeholders that consider policy frameworks and market systems for electric vehicle adoption.This edition also features an update of the electric heavy-duty vehicle models coming onto commercial markets and slotted for release in the coming few years,and on the status of development of megachargers.It compares the electric vehicle supply equipment per EV with the recommended AFID targets.It also analyses the impact of EV uptake on governments revenue from fuel taxation.Finally,it makes available for the first time two online tools:the Global EV Data Explorer and Global EV Policy Explorer,which allow users to interactively explore EV statistics and projections,and policy measures worldwide.Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE|2 IEA.All rights reserved.Table of content Table of contentsExecutive summary.4 Introduction.8 Overview.9 Electric Vehicles Initiative.10 Electric Vehicles Initiative aims to accelerate EV deployment.11 Electric Vehicles Initiative campaigns.12 EV3030 and the Drive to Zero campaigns support EV deployment.13 Implementing actions of the EV3030 campaign.14 Trends and developments in electric vehicle markets.15 Trends and developments in electric light-duty vehicles.16 More than 10 million electric cars were on the worlds roads in 2020 with battery electric models driving the expansion.17 Electric car registrations increased in major markets in 2020 despite the Covid pandemic.18 Electric cars had a record year in 2020,with Europe overtaking China as the biggest market.19 Consumer spending on EVs continues to rise,while government support stabilises.21 More electric car models are available;ranges start to plateau.22 Automakers entice customers with a wide menu including electric SUV models.23 China leads in electric LCV sales with Europe not far behind and Korea entering the market.24 18 of the 20 largest OEMs have committed to increase the offer and sales of EVs.25 Manufacturers electrification targets align with the IEAs Sustainable Development Scenario.26 Trends and developments in electric heavy-duty vehicles.27 Electric bus and truck registrations expanded in major markets in 2020.28 Electric heavy-duty vehicle models are broadening.29 Types of zero-emission HDVs expand,and driving range lengthens.30 Private sector commitment and other electrification trends.31 Private sector demand for zero-emission commercial vehicles amplifies market signals for OEMs to develop EVs.32 Climate Groups EV100 Initiative update on private sector commitments.33 Battery demand lagged EV sales in 2020;Europe sees highest rise in demand.34 Pandemic spreads popularity of electric micromobility.35 Korea takes a lead in deploying fuel cell electric vehicles.36 Deployment of electric vehicle-charging infrastructure.37 Publicly accessible slow and fast chargers increased to 1.3 million in 2020.38 Installation of publicly accessible chargers expanded sevenfold in the last five years;Covid-19 muted the pace in 2020 while China still leads.39 Most countries in Europe did not achieve 2020 AFID targets for publicly accessible chargers.40 Planning needs to start now for megachargers to enable long-distance trucking.41 Policies to promote electric vehicle deployment.42 Are we entering the era of the electric vehicle?.43 More than 20 countries have electrification targets or ICE bans for cars,and 8 countries plus the European Union have announced net-zero pledges.47 Policies affecting the electric light-duty vehicle market.48 Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE|3 IEA.All rights reserved.Table of content Policies buoyed electric car sales in 2020 despite the Covid-19 pandemic.49 Subsidies have been instrumental in boosting EV sales during the pandemic.51 Current zero-emission light-duty vehicle policies and incentives in selected countries.52 Strong policies underpin major electric car markets.53 Chinas major cities have implemented a broad array of EV promotion policies.54 Governments roll-out plans for interconnected charging infrastructure networks.59 Markets for EV battery supply heat up.61 Policies affecting the electric heavy-duty vehicle market.63 Current zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle policies and incentives in selected countries.64 Public policies prepare for expected surge in electric heavy-duty vehicles.65 Government investment in charging infrastructure for HDVs is slowly picking up.68 Links to sources for figures and tables in Chapter 2.69 Prospects for electric vehicle deployment.71 Outlook for electric mobility.72 Passenger cars drive the growth of electric vehicles to 2030.74 EVs penetrate all road transport modes in the short term.75 Europe and China continue to lead global EV markets.77 Electrification of road transport accelerates,but at varying speeds.78 Charging infrastructure.81 Private charging for electric light-duty vehicles will dominate in numbers and capacity.82 Charging points for LDVs expand to over 200 million and supply 550 TWh in the Sustainable Development Scenario.83 Implications of electric mobility.85 Annual battery demand grows twenty-fold in the Sustainable Development Scenario.86 Electric vehicles diversify the transport energy mix.87 EVs account for a minor share of global electricity consumption in 2030.88 Net reduction of GHG emissions from EVs increases over time.89 GHG emission benefits from EVs multiply as electricity generation decarbonises.90 Measures are needed to balance reduced revenue from fuel taxes associated with EV uptake.91 Annex.92 Abbreviations and acronyms.93 Units of measure.94 Acknowledgements.95 Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE|4 Executive summary IEA.All rights reserved.Executive summary PAGE|5 Executive summary IEA.All rights reserved.Global EV Outlook 2021 Strong momentum in electric vehicle markets despite the pandemic There were 10 million electric cars on the worlds roads at the end of 2020,following a decade of rapid growth.Electric car registrations increased by 41%in 2020,despite the pandemic-related worldwide downturn in car sales in which global car sales dropped 16%.Around 3 million electric cars were sold globally(a 4.6%sales share),and Europe overtook the Peoples Republic of China(“China”)as the worlds largest electric vehicle(EV)market for the first time.Electric bus and truck registrations also expanded in major markets,reaching global stocks of 600 000 and 31 000 respectively.The resilience of EV sales in the face of the pandemic rests on three main pillars:Supportive regulatory frameworks:even before the pandemic manycountries were strengthening key policies such as CO2 emissionsstandards and zero-emission vehicle(ZEV)mandates.By the endof 2020,more than 20 countries had announced bans on the salesof conventional cars or mandated all new sales to be ZEVs.Additional incentives to safeguard EV sales from the economicdownturn:some European countries increased their purchaseincentives and China delayed the phase-out of its subsidy scheme.The number of EV models expanded and battery cost continued tofall.Vehicle manufacturers announced increasingly ambitious electrification plans.Out of the worlds top 20 vehicle manufacturers,which represented around 90%of new car registrations in 2020,18 have stated plans to widen their portfolio of models and to rapidly scale up the production of light-duty electric vehicles.The model availability of electric heavy-duty vehicles is also broadening,with four major truck manufacturers indicating an all-electric future.Consumer spending on electric car purchases increased to USD 120 billion in 2020.In parallel,governments across the world spent USD 14 billion to support electric car sales,up 25%from 2019,mostly from stronger incentives in Europe.Nonetheless,the share of government incentives in total spending on electric cars has decreased over the past five years,suggesting that EVs are becoming increasingly attractive to consumers.The near-term outlook for EV sales is bright.In the first-quarter of 2021,global electric car sales rose by around 140%compared to the same period in 2020,driven by sales in China of around 500 000 vehicles and in Europe of around 450 000.US sales more than doubled relative to the first-quarter of 2020,albeit from a much lower base.EVs are set to be a more common sight on the worlds roads in the 2020s Existing policies around the world suggest healthy growth over this decade:in the Stated Policies Scenario,the EV stock across all modes(except two/three-wheelers)reaches 145 million in 2030,accounting for 7%of the road vehicle fleet.Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE|6 Executive summary IEA.All rights reserved.EV markets could be significantly larger if governments accelerate efforts to reach climate goals.In the Sustainable Development Scenario,the global EV fleet reaches 230 million vehicles in 2030(excluding two/three-wheelers),a stock share of 12%.The expanding fleet of EVs will continue to reduce well-to-wheel GHG emissions,with the net savings relative to internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles increasing over time depending on the pace at which electricity generation decarbonises.In 2030,in the Stated Policies Scenario,the global EV fleet reduces GHG emissions by more than one-third compared to an equivalent ICE vehicle fleet;in the Sustainable Development Scenario,the level rises to two-thirds.Policies need to leverage momentum to further accelerate electrification Even with the recent success of EV deployment,reaching a trajectory consistent with climate goals is a formidable challenge.It requires stronger ambition and action from all countries.Advances in battery technology and mass manufacturing will continue to drive down the cost of EVs.But the 2020s will need to see more than just the mass adoption of electric light-duty vehicles to meet climate goals.Governments will also need to put in place policies to promote the roll-out of zero-emission vehicles in the medium-and heavy-duty vehicle segments and the correponding fast-charging infrastructure.In the short term,countries can continue to implement,enforce and tighten measures such as CO2 and fuel economy standards and EV mandates.Taxing gasoline and diesel at rates that reflect their environmental and human health impacts can provide government revenue,reduce their negative impacts and hasten the transition to electric mobility.Differentiated taxation of vehicles and fuels that reflect their environmental performance can further align markets with the climate benefits of EVs.In order for electric vehicles to attain their full potential to mitigate carbon emissions,critical progress is required to decarbonise electricity generation,to integrate electric vehicles in power systems,to build charging infrastructure and to advance sustainable battery manufacturing and their recycling.Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE|7 Executive summary IEA.All rights reserved.Electric vehicles across all transport modes had steady growth over the last decade Global electric vehicle stock by region(left)and transport mode(right),2010-2020 IEA.All rights reserved.Notes:PLDVs=passenger light-duty vehicles,LCVs=light-commercial vehicles.Electric vehicles include battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.Europe includes EU27,Norway,Iceland,Switzerland and United Kingdom.Other includes Australia,Brazil,Canada,Chile,India,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Mexico,New Zealand,South Africa and Thailand.Sources:IEA analysis based on country submissions,complemented by ACEA(2021);CAAM(2021);EAFO(2021);EV Volumes(2021)and Marklines(2021).0 2 4 6 8 10 122010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020MillionChinaEuropeUnited StatesOther0 2 4 6 8 10 122010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020PLDVsLCVsBusesTrucksRegion:Transport mode:Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE|8 IEA.All rights reserved.Introduction Introduction Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE|9 IEA.All rights reserved.Introduction Overview Vehicle manufacturers and policy makers are boosting their attention and actions related to electric vehicles(EVs).EV technologies such as full battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric models are attactive options to help reach environmental,societal and health objectives.In addition to being two-to four-times more efficient than conventional internal combustion engine models,EVs can reduce reliance on oil-based fuels and,if running on low-carbon power,can deliver significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.Plus,with zero tailpipe emissions,EVs are well suited to help solve air pollution issues.Moreover,EVs are driving advances in battery technology a key issue for industrial competitiveness in the transition to clean energy.EV fleets are expanding at a fast pace in several of the worlds largest vehicle markets.The costs of batteries and EVs are dropping.Charging infrastructure is expanding.This progress promotes electrification of transport modes such as two/three-wheelers,light-duty vehicles(LDVs)(cars and vans),taxis and shared vehicles,buses and heavy-duty vehicles with short range requirements such as urban deliveries.Manufacturers are c