交易员分析员培训资料系列历史数据和分析4讲课教案.doc

此文档收集于网络，如有侵权请联系网站删除November 2008November 24, 200820081124: Looking South and Looking EastLooking South: Engerman and Sokoloff:What Has Happened in the New World? Four areas: o U.S.-Canadao Mexico-Brazilo Caribbean + slave Brazilo Southern cone U.S.-Canada very rich: rest not so. Why? o $80K per worker per year in the U.S. $10K-$20K more common in Latin America.o All have (or had) favorable land-labor ratios after conquest and plagues.o All had abundant natural resources.o All began with an abundance of land relative to labor.o Southern cone keeping up with North America until the 1930s-I will not deal with that today. Two lines of explanation: problems of slavery and ex-slavery; problems of mainland Latin America o The Puzzle: We Explain United States Growth as Markets + Resources = Accumulation + Technologyo But what happens when we go to Latin America? From the perspective of 1700, the United States is a marginal new-world economic area Yet Latin America today lags far behind the United States and Canadao To explain U.S. vs. Latin America, you need institutions What are institutions? Where do institutions come from? Three Theories of Institutions: o Legal origins (Shleifer et al.)o Tropical diseases and grab and run (Acemoglu et al.)o Engerman and Sokoloff A historians story-which means, its complicated Legal origins is broadly wrong-or at least overemphasized Grab-and-run due to tropical diseases also greatly overemphasized Factor endowments o Indigenous population oppressiono Resource curse-slavery Slavery in the Connecticut River valley Slavery in New York Cityo Key paragraph: The British colonies in the New World evolve quite distinct societies and sets of institutions. The majority that failed shared certain salient features with Latin America. These features allowed for average standards of living that were high at that time. but less well suited for the realization of sustained economic growth.o Non-white a proxy for savage economic (and political!) inequalityo European migrant standards of living 2x or more those in Europe throughout the colonial period-$1000 of todays dollars per capita per yearo European standards of living 4x those in Europe in slave-staple-hacienda colonies-$2000 of todays dollars per capita per yearo Staple crops: sugar, coffee, rice, tobacco, cotton easily produced by slave labor in the Caribbean and Brazil. Haiti 3x as rich as United States in 1790?o Extensive indigenous populations in Mexico and Peru Less than 20% of Mexican, Peruvian population white as of 1800 Economic and political equality a very good thing o Land policyo Immigration policyo (Mercantilist) trade policyo Middle-class demand for manufactures: American system Timing of industrializationo Education Other human capital: familiarity with technology or marketsLooking East: Alesina et al.:Posted at 02:28 PM in Lecture Notes | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) November 19, 200820081119: Post-WWII Stabilization PolicyPosted at 12:48 PM in Lecture Notes | Permalink | Comments (0) November 17, 2008Economics 113 Syllabus: Fall 2008Economics 113: American Economic HistoryThis File: J. Bradford DeLong delongecon.berkeley.edu Evans 601: Lecture: 4 LeConte; MW 4-5:30Andrej Milivojevic andrejberkeley.edu: Sections: T4-5 87 Dwinelle, W8-9 61 Evans Marc Gersen mgersenecon.berkeley.edu: Sections: F2-3 55 Evans, F3-4 55 Evans Matthew Sargent sargentberkeley.edu: Sections: M9-10 85 Evans, Th1-2 45 EvansFor those unfamiliar with U.S. history, Marty Olney recommends John Faragher et al (2005), Out of Many (New York: Prentice-Hall)W Aug 27: OVERVIEW Lecture Notes: Administration and Overview; Why Are We Here? On the Lecture and the University; Lecture Audio: http:/www.j-bradford- Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, The American Economy in Historical Perspective; Six Families Budget Their Money, 1884Sections Aug 28-Sep 3: Welcome, supply and demand (one page introduction due)W Sep 3: Amerindians, Conquistadores, Explorers, Settlers, and Empires Lecture Notes: 10000 BC to 1800; Pre-Industrial Growth Accounting Lecture Audio: http:/www.j-bradford- Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, Founding the Colonies; Bartholomew Gosnold Sails Along Northeastern North America, 1602:; Jared Diamond (1987), The Worst Mistake in the History of the Human Race, Discover; Jared Diamond (2008), Why Did Human History Unfold Differently On Different Continents For The Last 13,000 Years? Malthusian Economy Problem Set (due September 10): Sections Sep 4-10: Basic geographyM Sep 8: Colonists, 1600-1776 Lecture Notes: Growth Accounting, Natural Resources, and Pre-Civil War America; Notes for September 8 Lecture Audio: http:/www.j-bradford- Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, Colonial Economic Activities, Economic Progress and Wealth; Inventory of the Possessions of Thomas Springer, 1804; Peter Temin (1966), “Labor Scarcity and the Problem of American Industrial Efficiency in the 1850s”; I Wove To-day: Elizabeth Fuller Grows Up in Rural MassachusettsW Sep 10: Westward, Ho! Lecture Notes: Notes for September 10; Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, Land and the Early Western Movements, Agricultures Western Advance; We Are Not Entirely Out of CivilizationW Sep 10: Malthusian economy problem set dueSections Sep 11-17: Who benefited from slavery? Reading: Who Benefited Most from North American Slavery?M Sep 15: Slavery and Its Legacy, 1600-1929 Lecture Notes: Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, The Entrenchment of Slavery and Regional Conflict, War, Recovery, and Regional Divergence; Claudia D. Goldin and Frank D. Lewis (1975), The Economic Cost of the American Civil War: Estimates and Implications, Journal of Economic History, Vol. 35, No. 2. (Jun., 1975), pp. 299-326; Is It Not Enough that We Are Torn From Our Country and Friends?: Olaudah Equiano Describes the Horrors of the Middle Passage, 1780s; Additional Reading (necessary background for problem set 2)W Sep 17: Government, 1600-1870 Lecture Notes: Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, English Mercantilism and the Colonies, The Constitution, Public vs. Private Initiative on the Natural Waterways, The Canal Era, The Iron Horse, The First Bank of the United States, The Second Bank of the United States, Experiments in State Banking Controls, Protection from Foreign Competition; John R. Nelson, Jr. (1979), Alexander Hamilton and American Manufacturing: A Reexamination; Nathaniel Hawthorne Travels the Erie CanalSections Sep 18-24: ReviewM Sep 22: Review Mock MidtermM Sep 22: Slavery benefit problem set due at lectureW Sep 24: MIDTERM 1M Sep 29: Financial Crisis Teach inW Oct 1: Technologies, Factories, and Trade, 1870-1929 Lecture Notes: Growth Accounting, 1865-1929: The Great Traverse Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, Industrial Expansion and Concentration; Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz (1999) “Human Capital and Social Capital: The Rise of Secondary Schooling in America, 1910-1940,” Journal of Interdisciplinary History(http:/www.nber.org/papers/W6439); J. Bradford DeLong, “Did J.P. Morgans Men Add Value?”; Andrew Carnegies Ode to Steelmaking; A Mule Spinner Talks About UnemploymentM Oct 6: Workers, Unions, and Government, 1870-1929 Lecture Notes: Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, The Emergence of Americas Labor Consciousness, Railroads and Economic Change; Mark Twain Lampoons the Horatio Alger Myth; The AFL Protests Unemployment; Lincoln Steffens: The Shame of the CitiesM Oct 6: 1865-1929 Growth Accounting Problem Set dueW Oct 8: Depressions and Panics, 1840-1933 Lecture Notes: The Coming of the Great Depression Audio: The Coming of the Great Depression Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, Industrial Expansion and Concentration, Money, Prices, and Finance in the Post-Bellum Era, The Great Depression; Eugene White (1990), “The Stock Market Boom and the Crash of 1929,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 4:2 (Spring), pp. 67-83; Martha L. Olney (1999), “Avoiding Default: The Role of Credit in the Consumption Collapse of 1930.” Quarterly Journal of Economics CXIV (February 1999): 319-335. Christina Romer (1993) “The Nation in Depression.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 7 (Spring 1993): 19-39M Oct 13: Great Depression, continued Lecture Notes: The Great Depression AudioW Oct 15: The New Deal, 1933-1941 Lecture Notes: 20081013 Great Depression; Audio Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, The New Deal; Margaret Weir and Theda Skocpol, State Structures and Social KeynesianismW Oct 15: Simple Macroeconomics problem set dueSections Oct 9-15: Keynes and BernankeM Oct 20: The New Deal, Continued Lecture Notes: The Gold Standard in the Twentieth Century Audio MissingW Oct 22: World War II and Cold War, 1941-1956 Lecture Notes: The Global Economy; Audio Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, World War II;M Oct 27: Mass Production, 1910-1980 Lecture Notes: ; Audio Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, Commerce at Home and Abroad, Manufacturing, Marketing, and Industrial Productivity; W. Devine (1983), “From Shafts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification,” Journal of Economic History pp. 347-72; J. Bradford DeLong and Barry Eichengreen (1993), “The Marshall Plan: Historys Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program”; Kissing Rudy ValentinoSections Oct 16-22: Marshall Plan and European reconstructionW Oct 29: Workers, Unions, and Wage Compression, 1929-1975 Lecture Notes: American Income Inequality; Audio Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, The Rise of the Service Sector, Unions; Claudia Goldin and Robert A. Margo (1992), “The Great Compression”Sections Oct 23-29: FeminismM Nov 3: Focus on Women, 1870-present Lecture Notes: Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, The Changing Role of Women in the Labor Force; Gavin Wright (1991), “Understanding the Gender Gap: A Review Article,” Journal of Economic Literature: 1153-63; Sue Bowden and Avner Offer (1994), “Household Appliances and the Use of Time” Economic History Review 47: 725-748; Claudia Goldin (2004) The Long Road to the Fast Track NBER WP 10331; Frances Willard Discovers the BicycleM Nov 3: Practice Second Midterm Out: Sections Oct 30-Nov 5: Intergenerational inequalityW Nov 5: Focus on African-Americans, 1900-present Lecture Notes: Audio Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, Minorities; J. Smith and Finis Welch (1989), Black Economic Progress after Myrdal, JEL (June), pp. 519-40, 557-61; Werner Troesken, “Race, Disease, and the Provision of Water in American Cities, 1889-1921,” Journal of Economic History 61 (September 2001): 750-776Sections Nov 6-12: ReviewM Nov 10: Review W Nov 12: MIDTERM 2M Nov 17: Focus on Immigrants, 1870-present Lecture Notes: Immigration Audio Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, Immigration, Politics, and Economic Effects, The New Immigration; Norman Asing: We Are Not the Degraded Race You Would Make UsW Nov 19: Stabilization, Full Employment, and Inflation, 1950-present Lecture Notes: Stabilization Policy: Audio Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, Money, Banking, and the Business Cycle After World War II; J. Bradford DeLong (1996), “Keynesianism, Pennsylvania Avenue Style: Some Economic Consequences of the Employment Act of 1946,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1996, vol. 10, issue 3, pages 41-53Sections Nov 13-19: Alesina and the U.S.-Western Europe comparison Required Readings: Alberto Alesina, Edward Glaeser, and Bruce Sacerdote (2001), “Why Doesnt the U.S. Have a European-Style Welfare System?”W Nov 19: Family immigration story 500 word paper dueM Nov 24: Comparisons: Looking East and Looking South: Why Has There Been so Little Social Democracy in the United States? Why Has America Been so Successful? Lecture Notes: Audio Required Readings: Emma Goldman: I Will Kill Frick; Stanley Engerman and Kenneth Sokoloff (1994), Factor Endowments: Institutions, and Differential Paths of Growth Among New World EconomiesM Dec 1: The End of the American Dream? The Productivity Slowdown, the Inflation of the 1970s, and the Great Widening Lecture Notes: The Inflation of the 1970s Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, Real Wages; J. Bradford DeLong, Americas Only Peacetime Inflation: The 1970s; Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez (2003), Income Inequality in the United StatesW Dec 3: The Productivity Speedup of the 1990s Lecture Notes: Audio Required Readings: Walton and Rockoff, Achivements of the Past, Challenges for the Future; Paul David (1990), “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox,” American Economic Review, pp. 355-60; Blinder and Yellen, The Fabulous DecadeM Dec 8: The Crisis of Social Insurance: Pensions and Doctors Lecture Notes: Required Readings: Ronald Lee and Jonathan Skinner (1999), “Will Aging Baby Boomers Bust the Federal Budget?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 13 (Winter 1999): 117-140; David Cutler (2002), “Health Care and the Public Sector”Sections Dec 4-10: New economy modelsM Dec 15: Resources, Suburbs, Global Warming: Limits? Final Review: Review Lecture: Evans 10 Monday December 15 4-6 PM Required Readings: Nicholas Stern et al., The Stern Review on Global Climate Change http:/www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/4/3/Executive_Summary.pdf; http:/www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/A/6/Postscript.pdf; http:/www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/1/8/Technical_annex_to_the_postscript_P1-6.pdfM Dec 15: 1500 word final paper dueTh Dec 18: FINAL EXAM 8-11AMPosted at 11:01 AM in Administration | Permalink | Comments (10) 20081017 ImmigrationThe Old Immigration and the New Immigration: An immigrating nation? Not so much since 1930-at least not on the national level. Immigrating regions-and non-immigrating regions. Did immigrants ever look like old America? o Paddy-wagon, welsh, Dutch treat, Dutch courage, Dutch uncle, liberty cabbage. An immigrating nation? About as much as Australia. Less so than Canada. Two immigrations. An immigration