资源描述
Chapter 9 Tourism Demand and Supply
Text A Tourism Demand
Activities:
1. Decide whether the following statements agree with the information given in the text.
_____(1) Tourism demand means the total number of persons who travel, or wish to travel, and use tourists facilities and services at places away from their places of work or residence.
_____(2) Economic distance and cultural distance are another two important factors which
influence tourism demand.
_____(3) The higher the economic distance, the higher the resistance to that destination and,
consequently, the higher the demand.
_____(4) Cultural distance relates to the time and cost involved in traveling from the origin to
the destination area and back.
_____(5) Demand redirection means demand for one product is redirected to another, for
example, the demand for camping is replaced by that for leisure cruise.
2. Fill in the blanks with proper words to complete the following statements.
(1) Many factors can____________ tourism demand, including individual factors, economic
ones, geographic ones, political ones and those of destination.
(2) A similar__________ in demand was experienced with the introduction of the widebodied planes for transatlantic flights.
(3) The demand substitution is that demand for one activity is_________ with that for another.
(4) Destination choice remains_________ in broad categories, but opportunities within these
categories for single country and destination attract more tourists.
(5) When the industry needs to precisely analyze the demand for travel, several__________
methods of econometric analysis can be used to project demand.
3. Questions for discussion.
(1) What is the tourism demand and how many types of it are there? Can you list them out?
(2) Which kind of demand means people who wish to travel, but are not traveling presently
due to temporary reasons, of self or the supply end?
(3) What are the reasons for one destination being replaced by another? Can you give specific
examples?
(4) What type of distance refers to the extent to which the culture of the area from which the
tourist originates differs from the culture of the host region?
(5) How is tourism demand usually measured? Can you give some examples?
Text B Tourism Demand Forecasting
Activities:
1. Decide whether the following statements agree with the information given in the text.
_____(1) Causal forecast uses mathematician and statistical models as forecasting tools which
can be static or adaptive to new demand patterns.
____(2) Simulation forecast uses the relationship between demand and some other factors (e.
g. the state of the economy, interest rates) to develop forecast.
____(3) The experts answer questionnaires in one round to determine the results of the forecast.
____(4) Time series forecasting models try to predict the future based on present data.
____(5) Long-term forecasts are reliable than short-term forecasts.
2. Fill in the blanks with proper words to complete the following statements.
(1) Tourism demand and its status changes directly affect the direction and_________ of the
economic development of tourist destinations.
(2) Demand forecasting is very important for smooth/efficient _________of any organization
and even an economy as a whole.
(3) Accurate forecasting of future tourism demand is a major_________ of tourism demand studies.
(4) Simulation forecast__________ consumer choices that give rise to demand.
(5) While the moving average formula implies an equal weight being placed on each value
that is being averaged, the weighted moving__________ permits an unequal weighting on
prior time periods.
3. Questions for discussion.
(1) Why has there been an increasing interest in tourism demand studies across the globe since the ending of World War II?
(2) What kinds of characteristics should be paid special attention to in tourism demand forecasting?
(3) What makes time series forecast difficult to standardize or validate for accuracy?
(4) What makes the conflict between the tourism supply and demand more and more prominent?
参考答案
Text A Tourism Demand
1. Decide whether the following statements agree with the information given in the text.
(1) F (2) T (3) F (4) F (5) T
2. Fill in the blanks with proper words to complete the following statements.
(1) determine (2) surge (3) substituted (4) stable (5) statistical
3. Questions for discussion.
(1) The term“tourism demand”may be defined for a particular destination as the quantity of
the tourism product (that is, a combination of tourism goods and services) that consumers
are willing to purchase during a specified period under a given set of conditions. There
are basically four types of tourism demand. First, effective or actual demand refers to
people actually traveling at a point of time. Second, potential demand deals with people
who could travel if motivated. Third, deferred/postponed demand means people who wish
to travel, but are not traveling presently due to temporary reasons of self or supply end.
And the last, suppressed demand describes people not interested in travel.
(2) Deferred/postponed demand means people who wish to travel, but are not traveling
presently due to temporary reasons of self or supply end.
(3) Cost, climate, social, political reasons, etc.
(4) Cultural distance refers to the extent to which the culture of the area from which the
tourist originates differs from the culture of the host region.
(5) Tourism demand is usually measured in terms of the number of tourist visits from an
origin country to a destination country.
Text B Tourism Demand Forecasting
1. Decide whether the following statements agree with the information given in the text.
(1) F (2) F (3) F (4) F (5) F
2. Fill in the blanks with proper words to complete the following statements.
(1) scale (2) functioning (3) focus (4) imitates (5) average
3. Questions for discussion.
(1) The increasing interest in tourism demand studies motivated by the rapid growth of the
tourism industry across the globe since the ending of World War II.
(2) In tourism demand forecasting, the following characteristics should be paid special
attention to: Long-term forecasts are less accurate than short-term forecasts; Aggregate
forecasts are more accurate than disaggregate forecasts; Information gets distorted when
moving away from the customer.
(3) The information relating to the factors affecting the forecast is typically non-quantitative,
soft, and subjective. Historical data may not be available or may be of little relevance to
the forecast. The non-scientific nature makes it difficult to standardize and validate foraccuracy.
(4) The strong seasonality of tourism and the unstorability of its products make the conflict
between the tourism supply and demand more and more prominent.
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