2024年中国石油市场概览.pdf

万吨数据来源：国家统计局、海关总署、万得2023年原油生产量2.09亿吨、进口量5.64亿吨、加工量7.35亿吨。万吨数据来源：海关总署、万得2023年中国原油前十大进口国中，中东进口2.51亿吨，占比51%。数据来源：卓创、上期能源国内炼厂一次加工能力约9.5亿吨，国内加油站数量约12万座。数据来源：国家统计局、万得2023年原油下游产品中，汽油占比22%，柴油占比30%，煤油占比7%。万吨数据来源：国家统计局、海关总署、万得2023年汽油生产量1.61亿吨、表观消费量1.49亿吨、净出口量1228万吨。万吨数据来源：国家统计局、海关总署、万得2023年柴油生产量2.17亿吨、表观消费量2.04亿吨、净出口量1377万吨。数据来源：国家统计局、海关总署、万得2023年生产柴汽比1.35、消费柴汽比1.37。数据来源：国家统计局、公安部、万得2023年国内汽车保有量3.36亿量，其中新能源汽车2041万辆。万吨万辆数据来源：国家统计局、海关总署、万得2023年煤油生产量4968万吨、表观消费量3466万吨、净出口量1502万吨。万吨数据来源：国家统计局、民航局、万得2023年民航周转量1188亿吨公里。万吨亿吨公里元/桶元/桶数据来源：路透、上期能源数据来源：路透、上期能源元/桶美元/桶数据来源：海关总署、上期能源、万得元/桶数据来源：国家统计局、上期能源、万得元/吨元/桶数据来源：国家统计局、上期能源、万得元/升元/桶数据来源：国家统计局、上期能源、万得元/吨元/桶数据来源：中国汽车工业协会、万得、上期能源2023年新能源汽车销售占比31.4%，其中12月占比达到37.7%。万辆数据来源：中国汽车工业协会、万得、上期能源2023年新能源乘用车销售占比34.6%，新能源商用车销售占比11.1%。数据来源：中国汽车工业协会、万得、上期能源2023年新能源汽车插电式混动车销售增速83.9%，纯电车销售增速24.3%。万辆数据来源：中国汽车工业协会、万得、上期能源2023年新能源商用车中货车销售增速48.8%，客车销售增速-4.8%。万辆数据来源：公安部、国家统计局、中国汽车工业协会、万得、上期能源注：根据汽车保有量和过去15年汽车销售数据估算汽油汽车占比及汽油车保有量。估算结果：2023汽油单车油耗约为0.5吨/年，根据新能源汽车保有量2041万辆估算，每年替代汽油消费约1031万吨。吨/年万吨数据来源：工信部、乘联会、上期能源注：油价使用2023年上海92#汽油零售价平均值（7.79元/升），电价使用上海居民电价第二档高峰期价格（0.667元/千瓦时）。估算结果：传统燃油车能耗成本平均约55元/百公里，新能源车能耗成本平均约8元/百公里。万辆元/百公里小 结国内石油市场保持稳步发展，石油依然是近阶段最重要的能源之一上海原油期货在国内原油和成品油市场中发挥了较好的价格发现功能国内新能源汽车加速发展，对成品油消费替代效应逐步增大上海原油期货将为我国石油市场发展和能源转型保驾护航免责声明本资料由上海期货交易所（上期所）和上海国际能源交易中心（上期能源）汇编。本资料版权受中国法律保护，传输、复制需获得版权人的书面同意。上期所/上期能源不保证在其他司法辖区使用、传播该资料的合法性。尽管我们将尽量提供可靠、准确、完整的信息，但无法保证所有信息准确或完整。本资料仅作为投资者教育的一般性描述，不作为投资建议，因此不得作为开展特定业务的依据。期货和期权交易涉及高风险，需谨慎考虑。交易者应满足适当性要求。10,000 MTSource:National Bureau of Statistics(NBS);General Administration of Customs(GACC);WindIn 2023,the crude oil production was 209m MT,the import volume was 564m MT,and the processing volume was 735 m MT.Source:GACC;WindAmong the top ten crude oil importing countries in China in 2023,the import volume from the Middle East was 251m MT,accounting for 51%of the total.10,000 MTSource:SCI;INEDomestic refineries have a primary processing capacity of 950m MT;China has 120,000 gas stations.Source:NBS;WindIn 2023,among downstream crude oil products,gasoline,diesel and kerosene accounted for 22%,30%,and 7%of the total respectively.Gasoline maintains a steady share in crude oil products,with diesel and kerosene shares increasing in 2023Source:NBS;GACC;WindIn 2023,gasoline production reached 161m MT,apparent consumption reached 149 m MT,and net export reached 12.28 m MT.10,000 MTSource:NBS;GACC;WindIn 2023,diesel production reached 217m MT,apparent consumption reached 204m MT,and net export reached 13.77m MT.10,000 MTSource:NBS;GACC;WindIn 2023,the diesel to gasoline production ratio was 1.35,and the diesel to gasoline consumption ratio was 1.37.Diesel-to-gasoline ratio approached 1:1 at the lowest point in 2021,but rebounded more recentlySource:NBS;Ministry of Public Security(MPS);WindIn 2023,the domestic automobile ownership reached 336 million,including 20.41 million new energy vehicles.万吨10,000 MT10,000 UnitsSource:NBS;GACC;WindIn 2023,the production of kerosene was 49.68 m MT,the apparent consumption was 34.66 m MT,and the net export was 15.02 m MT.10,000 MTAviation kerosene(jet fuel)production and consumption continued to recover in 2023,with net export surpassing 15m MTSource:NBS;Civil Aviation Administration;WindIn 2023,the turnover of civil aviation reached 118.8 billion ton-kilometers.10,000 MT100m MT-kmSource:Reuters;INERMB/bblRMB/bblSC 1st line Brent 1st lineBrent 1st line(RHS)WTI 1st line(RHS)SC 1st line(RHS)Source:Reuters;INERMB/bblUSD/bblSC 2nd line Platts Dubai/OmanFreight Rate(RHS)Source:GACC;INE;WindRMB/bblMonthly Average Oil Import Price(Month M+1)Monthly Average Settlement Price(MASP)of Active INE SC Contracts(Month M)Source:NBS;INE;WindRMB/MTRMB/bblSource:NBS;INE;WindSource:NBS;INE;WindRMB/MTRMB/bblSource:China Association of Automobile Manufacturers(CAAM);Wind;INEIn 2023,the sales of EVs accounted for 31.4%of the total market,with December accounting for 37.7%.万辆Source:CAAM;Wind;INEIn 2023,the sales of passenger EVs accounted for 34.6%of the total,and the sales of commercial EVs accounted for 11.1%of the total.Source:CAAM;Wind;INEIn 2023,the sales growth rate of PHEVs was 83.9%,and the sales growth rate of BEVs was 24.3%.Source:CAAM;Wind;INEIn 2023,among commercial EVs,the sales growth rate of trucks was 48.8%,and the sales growth rate of buses was-4.8%.Source:MPS;NBS;CAAM;Wind;INENote:Proportion and ownership of fossil fuel cars are estimated from the car ownership data and the sales figures from the past 15 years.Estimated result:In 2023,fossil fuel cars consumed approx.0.5 MT of fuel per vehicle per year.Given there were 20.41m EVs,total gasoline substitution was around 10.31m MT.Average fuel consumption falls with the wider adoption of EVs,public transport,and new technologies,despite a rebound following the lifting of Covid measuresSource:Ministry of Information and Technology;CPCA;INENote:For this estimation,the average Shanghai retail price for 92 RON in 2023 is used for the gas price(7.79 yuan/liter);the tier-2,peak-hour residential electricity price in Shanghai is used for the electricity rate(0.667 yuan/kWh).Estimated average energy cost:55 yuan/100 km for gasoline cars,8 yuan/100 km for EVs.Conclusions and OutlookChinas oil market has maintained steady growth and crude oil will remain a critical source of energy in the near futureShanghais crude oil futures(SC)serves an effective price discovery function in the domestic crude oil and refined oil marketsChinas EV market is taking of f,leading to rising substitution of refined oilsSC will contribute to a more robust domestic oil market and Chinas energy transitionDisclaimerThe information contained in this document is compiled and edited by the Shanghai Futures Exchange(SHFE)and Shanghai International Energy Exchange(INE).The copyright of this material is protected by Chinese laws.Any transmission and reproduction shall be done with the written consent of the copyright owner.SHFE/INE does not guarantee that the use and transmission of this material in another jurisdiction is legal.Although we endeavor to provide reliable,accurate and complete information,there cannot be guarantee that such information is accurate 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