巴西旅游业的动态分析挑战和建议.doc

中文3310字原 文:An analysis of the dynamics of the tourism industry in Brazil：challenges and recommendations 出 处： International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 作 者： Filipe Sobral,Alketa Peci,Gustavo Souza AbstractPurpose The main purpose of this study is to present an analysis of the dynamics of the tourism market in South America and, more specifically, in Brazil, by measuring and analyzing the growth in tourists arrivals to the region between 1998 and 2002.Design/methodology/approach This study uses the shift-share technique that decomposes the growth of the number of tourists into various components, enabling in-depth diagnosis of the dynamics of the sector in the period.Findings Despite the fact that Brazil is the leading tourist destination in South America, the study shows that Brazil has been losing ground in relation to some of its neighbors in South America. The study also revealed the impact of 9/11 and Argentinas crises and the growing participation of the European tourist in Brazil.Originality/value Despite some limitations, this technique has the advantage of focusing on a region scarcely studied in mainstream tourism researches and offering Brazilian policy-makers a new methodology such that they may take advantage of emerging opportunities and create competitive advantages for the country.Keywords :Tourism, Public policy, Brazil, South AmericaIntroductionTourism is a sector experiencing major growth in terms of the global economy. Ever since the 1950s when international travel became accessible to the public in general, the number of tourists has been growing at an average rate of 6.8 percent per year. Estimates are that in 2005 the number of incoming tourists totaled 808 million. The trends for the future of the tourism industry indicate that by 2020 the number of incoming international tourists will be in the order of 1.6 billion (World Tourism Organization, 2006). According to World Travel and Tourism Council it is expected that the tourism will contribute 3.6 percent to global GDP in 2006 (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006). In view of the importance of the tourism sector, this study seeks to contribute with another potentially useful technical analysis tool for evaluating the sector. The objective is to provide policy makers in Brazil with a systematic approach towards managing their tourism efforts and activities. The article concludes with a series of recommendations for public policies in the area of tourism based on the discussion of results of the model integrated with the results of other studies and research.The tourism industry in South AmericaIn terms of economic impact, tourism is a recent phenomenon in South America. With the exception of the 1960-1970 decade, the growth of tourism on the American continent (North, Central and South America) was always below the world average(World Tourism Organization, 2005). Factors such as the great distance from the major tourist-generating markets, the timidity of the regional economies, as well as the prolonged economic recessions, had a negative impact on the development of regional and intra-regional tourism (Santana, 2000). Only in the 1990s South America emerged as a potential tourism destination, with Brazil, Argentina and Chile as the main players in the region. Factors like the transition to democracy, the consolidation of economic blocks, the growth of commerce with the major world markets and the improvement of basic public services, contributed positively to the development of tourism in the region. In conjunction with this the opening up of the markets and massive investments in infrastructure facilitated the flow of tourism to traditional and non-traditional destinations in South America(Gouvea, 2004; Santana, 2000).Even though the growth in the Americas has followed the worldwide trend, tourism has an unrealized growth potential in the majority of South American countries. Only recently some countries have adopted tourism as a strategic alternative. In accordance with projections of the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) for 2006, it is expected that US$163,362 billion will be generated in economic activity (total demand)by the tourism industry. An impact of 7.2 percent on the GDP of Latin American countries is expected, as well as the generation of 12.1 million jobs, namely 6.9 percent of the total (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006).The tourism industry in BrazilWith respect to Brazil, it is possible to affirm that tourism is a relatively important economic activity, with great future growth potential. The contribution to GDP of the tourism industry in Brazil is estimated at 2.8 percent for 2006 (US$25.3 billion),increasing in nominal terms to US$ 36 billion (2.7 percent of GDP) by 2016 (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006). The importance of the tourism sector in Brazil becomes more apparent when one evaluates its social impact, especially in generating jobs. Estimates of the Ministry of Labor and Employment reveal that over the 2003/2005 three-year period, the economic activity of tourism generated 560,000 new jobs (Embratur, 2006). For 2006, estimates of the total number of job positions generated by the tourism industry are 5.5 million, in other words 6.4 percent of the job total. By 2016, the total should reach approximately 9 million job positions, corresponding to 6.6 percent of the total (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006). Despite the fact that Brazil is the largest Latin American country with incomparable cultural and ecological exuberance and diversity, both the public and private sectors have underestimated tourism. The analysis of historical data on tourism in Brazil shows that it was only in the middle of the 1990s that the tourism industry really took off. The year 2000 saw the highest number ever recorded in terms of tourist arrivals in the country with 5.3 million international arrivals. For Brazil, Argentina is the main source of incoming tourists with 922,484 tourists,followed by the USA (705,997), Portugal (336,988), Uruguay (309,732), Germany(294,989), Italy (276,563) and France (224,160) (Embratur, 2005a, b). Due to the economic crisis that Argentina suffered in 2002, its participation in the influx of tourists to Brazil fell from 32.8 percent in 2000 to 19.24 percent in 2004. However, the country is still in top place among the main tourist groupings entering Brazil. With respect to the average expense per capita/day, the average spending by international tourists was US$87.99 and the average length of stay was 13.5 days (Embratur, 2005a, b).Research conducted into the image of the country abroad confirms the fact that the attraction of Brazil as a tourist destination is based on its natural beauty and exoticism,though the negative perceptions regarding social and economic conditions of the country, as well as the lack of security, coexist with this positive image. However,research indicated that the respondents do not have a good perception regarding the social and economic conditions of the country and, furthermore, are worried about security issues when visiting the country (Rezende-Parker et al., 2003).The studyThis study uses a version of the shift-share technique, developed by Esteban-Marquillas (1972), to examine the characteristics and dynamics of the tourism industry in South America. The purpose is to measure and analyze the growth in tourists arrivals to South America (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay e Venezuela) from three different regions of the world (Europe, Americas and residual region which includes Asia, Africa, the Middle East and South Pacific countries) between 1998 and 2002. The shift-share technique decomposes the growth of the number of tourists into various components that can explain its behavior, enabling in-depth diagnosis of the dynamics of the sector in the period.The selected countries in South America were chosen to compose the benchmark because they share some significant similarities in terms of potential attractiveness and image. Thus, each countrys performance can be compared to the collective performance of the benchmark. The data for tourist arrivals are compiled from the Statistical Yearbook, published by the Statistical Division of the United Nations Department of Economical and Social Affairs (United Nations, 2005).ResultsThe main results of the study are the following:Brazil is the country that receives the highest number of international tourists in South America (over 30 percent), followed by Argentina (approximately 20 percent), Uruguay (11 percent) and Chile (11 percent).As for the tourist-generating countries to South America, the Americas (over 70 percent) and Europe (23 percent) continue to be the leading tourist exporters.Between 1998 and 2002 there was a marked reduction in the number of international tourists, representing a drop of over 18 percent in the number of tourist arrivals to South America, mainly because the 9/11 and the political and economic instability of some of the countries in the region, especially Argentina,Colombia and Venezuela.Despite the global decrease of incoming tourists to South America, the number of European tourists increased during the period under consideration (5 percent).With respect to Brazil, its global performance fell well below expectations and it lost market share, losing more than a 1 million tourists (221.5 percent).The foregoing analysis made it clear that this reduction was due to a weak performance in the Americas, which was partly offset by a good performance from Europe.The results indicate that the number of European tourists visiting Brazil increased by 235,503 (an increase of more than 20 percent). According to the analysis, Brazil enjoys a competitive advantage in attracting European tourist and it is specialized in this region.The results also revealed a marked reduction of more than 1.2 million tourists from the Americas to Brazil, which can be explained due to: crisis in the main tourist-generating countries like the US (9/11) and Argentina (economic crisis); a competitive disadvantage in attracting American tourists; and a non-specialization in this market.Ecuador (28.1 percent) and Peru (18.3 percent) were the only two South American countries that increased the number of tourist arrivals during the period. These countries present competitive advantages in relation to the remaining countries of South America in terms of attracting tourists.Argentina also had a good performance, despite a slight decrease in the number of international tourists (25 percent), though compared to the global growth rate of the benchmark (218.2 percent) this can still be seen as a highly positive result.Argentina possesses a strong competitive advantage in attracting American tourists and a competitive disadvantage in the European market.Bolivia, Chile, Colombia and Paraguay produced a consistent performance in terms of the market share they possess. Of these countries, Chile has a disadvantage in the only region in which it is specialized (the Americas) and advantages in the regions in which it is not specialized.Uruguay (241.7 percent), Venezuela (237 percent) are the countries that performed worst, posting a decline in the growth rate of more than double the reduction of the benchmark (218 percent). Both of them had competitive disadvantages in attracting tourists from all regions.Conclusions and recommendationsTourism is a strategic sector for Brazilian development as it offers opportunities to be seized, while at the same time presents challenges to policy-makers in terms of adequate conception and implementation of tourism strategies. The results of this study enable the following conclusions about the Brazilian case.Firstly, the study corroborated the evidence that the stage of development of the tourism sector is closely linked to the degree of socio-economic development of the country. It is no coincidence that the major economic players in South America(Brazil, Argentina and Chile) are also the main host countries for tourists in the region. However, the situation is problematic, particularly in Brazil, due to the difficulty in attracting private investments in infrastructure sectors. The situation is even more problematic in comparative terms, in view of the fact that countries like Chile have produced more consistent results in terms of attracting investments to infrastructure, showing higher competitiveness potential in the medium and long-term.Secondly, the study revealed the impact of 9/11 and Argentinas crises in the growth rates for the sector. The impact was felt more strongly in Brazil since the country still has a strong dependency on tourism from the Americas. However, the study showed that when compared with the superior performance of other South American countries,Brazil faces strong competition, specifically from Argentina.Thirdly, research of the image of Brazil abroad highlights the existence of a negative perception about the social and economic conditions, as well as the lack of security, though this perception does not prevail for countries like Argentina. This image factor, associated with others such as the high cost of domestic transport and the inability to distinguish what makes Brazil different in relation to other Spanish-speaking countries may have an influence on the competitive disadvantage of Brazil in relation to the Americas.译 文： 巴西旅游业的动态分析：挑战和建议摘要目的本研究的主要目的是通过测量和分析巴西地区游客在1998年至2002年间的增长提交南美旅游市场的动态分析。设计/方法论/方式本研究采用移位共享技术，将游客数量的增长分解为不同的构成，从而深入分析不同区域间的动态分析。结果尽管巴西是南美洲的主要旅游目的地，但研究显示巴西已经失去有关南美邻国的部分市场。研究还显示了911、阿根廷危机和欧洲游客参与的增长对巴西的影响。独创性/价值尽管遇到一些限制，但这种技术具有集中在一个地区主流旅游产品的研究的优势，为巴西的政策制定者提供了新的方法论使他们可以利用正在出现的机会，并为国家创造竞争优势。关键词：旅游，公共政策，巴西，南美洲简介旅游业是一个经历了全球经济增长期的行业。自从20世纪50年代，国际旅游为公众所普遍接受时，游客人数以每年平均增长率为百分之6.8的速度增长。据估计，在2005年来港旅客总数达8.08亿。旅游业的未来发展趋势表明，到2020年国际旅游的收入将达到1.6亿美元（世界旅游组织，2006）。据世界旅行及旅游理事会预期2006年旅游业将贡献全球GDP的百分之3.6（世界旅游及旅行理事会，2006）。从旅游部门的重要性来看，本研究的目的，是与另一个实用的技术分析工具一起做贡献，以评估各部门。其目的是为巴西的决策者提供一个管理他们旅游工作和活动的系统的方法。文章最后提出了一系列政策，供市民在旅游业方面对综合其他研究成果为基础的模型结果进行讨论。南美洲旅游业从经济影响而言，旅游业是南美洲的一个新现象。在1960年至1970年这特殊的十年，旅游业在美洲大陆（北美，中美和南美）的增长一直低于世界平均水平（世界旅游组织，2005）。如主要旅游市场的巨大差距，对区域经济的胆怯，以及长期的经济衰退等因素，都对区域间和区域内的发展产生负面影响（桑塔纳，2000）。只有在20世纪90年代，南美成为一个潜在的旅游目的地与巴西，阿根廷和智利一起作为该地区的主要参与者。如向民主过渡，巩固经济区块，与全球主要市场的贸易增长和基础公共服务的改善等因素，为积极推动旅游业在该地区的发展作做出了贡献。与此相开放的市场和基础设施的大规模投资增加了南美洲传统和非传统旅游目的地的客流量（Gouvea，2004:桑塔纳，2000）。即使美洲的增长遵循了全球趋势，旅游业也存在在南美大多数国家都未实现的增长潜力。直到最近一些国家采用了一种旅游战略选择。按照世界旅游及旅行理事会（WTTC）对2006年的预测，有16332亿美元将在经济活动中（总需求）由旅游产业产生。预计将影响拉美国家国内生产总值的百分之7.2，以及12.1个就业机会的产生，即总额的百分之6.9（世界旅游及旅行理事会，2006）。巴西旅游业关于巴西，可以肯定的是旅游业是一个在未来具有很大增长潜力的重要的经济活动。2006年巴西旅游业的GDP贡献预计为2.8个百分点（253亿美元），2016年名义增加360亿美元（国内生产总值的百分之2.7）（世界旅游及旅行理事会，2006）。当评估其社会影响，特