全球清洁技术制造现状报告2024—清洁技术制造路线图1.pdf

Advancing Clean Technology ManufacturingAn Energy Technology Perspectives Special ReportThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYAdvancing Clean Technology Manufacturing Abstract An Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report PAGE|3 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract Governments and firms around the world are racing to define their place in the clean energy economy,which is growing quickly as policy makers develop new industrial strategies that also bolster energy security and address climate change.This Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report is structured to provide decision makers with an analytical toolkit to design and evaluate their strategies for clean technology manufacturing.Acknowledging that there is no“one size fits all”approach,it lays out guiding principles that can help inform future planning.This analysis was produced in response to a request from G7 Leaders in 2023.It benefits from the insights gathered during a High-level Dialogue on Diversifying Clean Technology Manufacturing held at the IEA headquarters in Paris in November 2023.It also builds on analysis conducted as part of the latest edition of the IEAs flagship technology publication,Energy Technology Perspectives,and two Special Briefings on the topic of clean technology manufacturing during the course of 2023.Advancing Clean Technology Manufacturing Acknowledgements An Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report PAGE|4 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements This study was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy(ETP)Division of the Directorate of Sustainability,Technology and Outlooks(STO)of the International Energy Agency(IEA).The study was designed and directed by Timur Gl,IEA Chief Energy Technology Officer.Araceli Fernandez Pales,Head of the Technology Innovation Unit,provided strategic guidance throughout the development of the project.Peter Levi co-ordinated the analysis and production of the report.The lead authors(in alphabetical order)were:Simon Bennett(innovation),Jos Bermudez Menendez(electrolysers),Chiara Delmastro(heat pumps),Mathilde Fajardy(manufacturing costs),Alexandre Gouy(manufacturing costs),Carl Greenfield(policy),Mathilde Huismans(wind and data management),Teo Lombardo(batteries),Rafael Martinez Gordon(heat pumps),Faidon Papadimoulis(solar PV)and Francesco Pavan(electrolysers),and Chang Tan(manufacturing costs).Other key contributors were:Caleigh Andrews,Piotr Bojek,Johannes Hampp,Jean-Baptiste Le Marois and Biqing Yang.Per-Anders Widell and Anna Kalista provided essential support throughout the process.Lizzie Sayer edited the manuscript.Thanks also to the IEA Communications and Digital Office for their help,particularly to Jethro Mullen,Poeli Bojorquez,Curtis Brainard,Astrid Dumond,Merve Erdil,Grace Gordon,Julia Horowitz and Clara Vallois.Valuable comments and feedback were provided by other colleagues within the IEA,in particular Heymi Bahar,Alessandro Blasi,Laura Cozzi,Trevor Criswell,Tim Gould,Dennis Hesseling and Thomas Spencer.The analysis and findings in this report draw on strategic guidance and insights gathered during a High-level Dialogue on Diversifying Clean Technology Supply Chains in Paris in November 2023.The work could not have been achieved without the financial support provided by the Government of Japan.Several senior government officials and experts provided essential feedback to improve the quality of the report.They include:Dries Acke(Solar Power Europe);Jeremy Avins and Giulia Siccardo(Department of Energy,United States);Ben Backwell(Global Wind Energy Council);Marco Baresi(Turboden);Edwin Basson(WorldSteel);Marek Bielewski,Francesco Dolci,Aliki Georgakaki,Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau,Evdokia Tapoglou and Agne Toleikyte(JRC,European Commission);Advancing Clean Technology Manufacturing Acknowledgements An Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report PAGE|5 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Reed Blakemore(Atlantic Council);Roberto Bocca(World Economic Forum);Rina Bohle Zeller(Vestas);Laura Casuscelli(WindEurope);Sam Cornish(IIGCC);Leandro de Oliveira Albuquerque(Ministry of Mines and Energy,Brazil);Rebecca Dell(ClimateWorks Foundation);Miriam DOnofrio and Sarah Ladislaw(National Security Council,United States);Daniel Dufour(Natural Resources Canada);Andr Eckermann(GIZ);Martin Forsen(NIBE);Marie-Laetitia Gourdin and Christin Tpfer(Vattenfall);Rishabh Jain and Dhruv Warrior(CEEW);Leif Christian Krger(Thyssenkrup nucera);Thomas Kwan and Silvia Madeddu(Schneider Electric);Jon Lezamiz Cortazar(Siemens Gamesa);Xiao Lin(Botree Recycling Technologies);Johan Lindahl(ESMC);Michael Lippert(SAFT);Joseph Majkut(CSIS);Monika Merdekawat(ASEAN Centre for Energy);Yasuko Nishimura and Atsushi Taketani(Ministry of Foreign Affairs,Japan);Thomas Nowak(European Heat Pump Association);Jared Ottmann(Tesla);Gaurav Pundir(Department of Commerce,India);Marta Ramos Fernandez(Airbus);David Reiner(University of Cambridge);Mark Richards(RioTinto);Agustn Rodrguez Riccio(Topsoe);Javier Sanz(Innoenergy);Oliver Sartor(Agora);Christian Schmidt(Federal Chancellery,Germany);Ulrik Stridbk(rsted);Jacopo Tattini(European Commission);Peter Taylor(Leeds University);Denis Thomas(Cummins);Fridtjof Unander(Aker Horizons);No van Hulst(IPHE);Anne van Ysendyck(ArcelorMittal);David Victor(University of California San Diego);Natasha Vidangos(Environmental Defence Fund);Miki Yamanaka(Daikin Industries).Advancing Clean Technology Manufacturing Table of contents An Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report PAGE|6 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.7 Part I.Clean technology manufacturing today.12 Chapter 1.An introduction to clean technology manufacturing.13 Clean technology manufacturing in context.13 Tracking progress on clean technology manufacturing.18 Chapter 2.The new clean energy economy is emerging.27 The project pipeline continues to expand.27 Rapid-if uneven-progress.34 Part II.Advancing clean technology manufacturing.49 Chapter 3.Cost fundamentals of clean technology manufacturing.50 Levelised cost of manufacturing.50 Upfront costs.54 Operational costs.60 Policy incentives for manufacturing.65 Chapter 4.The role of innovation in advancing clean technology manufacturing.70 The link between energy innovation and manufacturing has strengthened.72 Innovation can overcome high cost factors to maintain manufacturing competitiveness.74 Policy missions for innovation to unlock new manufacturing opportunities.77 The value of technology innovation besides lowering manufacturing costs at home.82 Chapter 5.Policy priorities for advancing clean technology manufacturing.87 Enlarging domestic markets with climate policy.87 Compressing lead times.89 Boosting the availability of skilled workers.90 Synergies from supply chain integration.93 Reducing supply chain uncertainty with trade agreements.93 Reducing environmental impacts and addressing social considerations.95 Part III.Key principles for decision makers.98 Domestic actions to advance clean technology manufacturing.98 International co-operation to support domestic investment and global progress.100 Technical annex.106 Abbreviations and acronyms.112 Units.113 Advancing Clean Technology Manufacturing Executive summary An Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report PAGE|7 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Clean technologies shine a spotlight on manufacturing The manufacturing sector long an engine of economic growth and development is increasingly at the forefront of considerations on energy,climate and economic policy.Countries are racing to capitalise on benefits that clean technology manufacturing can bring to economic security,employment and the resilience of clean energy transitions.Following a request by G7 Leaders in 2023,this Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report is designed to aid policy makers as they prepare their industrial strategies.It focuses on five key clean energy technologies solar PV,wind,batteries,electrolysers and heat pumps.Investment in clean technology manufacturing is becoming so significant that it is starting to register in broader macroeconomic data.In 2023,it accounted for around 0.7%of global investment across all sectors of the economy,driving more spending than established industries like steel(0.5%).In growth terms,the contribution is even starker in 2023,clean technology manufacturing alone accounted for around 4%of global GDP growth and nearly 10%of global investment growth.The recent surge in investment looks set to continue New,first-of-its-kind analysis in this report shows that investment in clean technology manufacturing stood at around USD 200 billion in 2023,growing by more than 70%relative to 2022.Investments in solar PV and battery manufacturing plants led the way,together accounting for more than 90%of the total in both years.Investment in solar PV manufacturing more than doubled to around USD 80 billion in 2023,while investment in battery manufacturing grew by around 60%to USD 110 billion.China accounted for three-quarters of global investments in clean technology manufacturing in 2023,down from 85%in 2022,as investment in the United States and Europe grew strongly particularly for battery manufacturing,for which investments more than tripled in these regions.For solar PV manufacturing,investments in China more than doubled between 2022 and 2023.Outside these three major manufacturing hubs,India,Japan,Korea and countries in Southeast Asia made important contributions in specific areas,while investment in regions such as Africa,Central America and South America was negligible.Near-term momentum for clean manufacturing looks strong.Around 40%of investments in 2023 were in facilities that are due to come online in 2024;for battery manufacturing facilities,this share is nearly 70%.Committed projects Advancing Clean Technology Manufacturing Executive summary An Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report PAGE|8 I EA.CC BY 4.0.those that are under construction or have reached final investment decisions through 2025,together with existing capacity,would exceed by 50%the global solar PV deployment needs in 2030 based on the IEAs Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario(NZE Scenario)and meet 55%of battery cell requirements.This momentum is also spreading to adjacent sectors nearly half of committed battery manufacturing announcements in the United States will be via joint ventures with automakers.The project pipeline is expanding rapidly,if unevenly Existing manufacturing capacity for solar PV modules and cells could today achieve what is necessary to meet demand under the NZE Scenario in 2030 six years ahead of schedule,with only modest gaps remaining for the upstream steps of wafer and polysilicon manufacturing.However,facilities making cells and modules are currently seeing relatively low average utilisation rates of around 50%globally.Key factors that explain this are a solar PV module supply glut,together with the rapid expansion of manufacturing capacity.While the sharp increase in supply has driven down module prices,supporting wider consumer uptake,stockpiles of solar PV modules are growing and there are signs of downscaling and postponements of planned capacity expansions,particularly in China.Battery manufacturing also had a record year in 2023.Production totalled more than 800 gigawatt-hours(GWh),rising 45%from 2022.Capacity additions also surged,with almost 780 GWh of cell manufacturing capacity added around a quarter more than in 2022.This raised total installed capacity to around 2.5 terawatt-hours(TWh),or almost three times current demand.Globally,battery manufacturing capacity could exceed 9 TWh by 2030 if all announcements are realised.Battery manufacturing deployment needs in 2030 under the NZE Scenario are within reach:more than 90%could be met by announced expansions that have reached final investment decisions.New manufacturing capacity for wind and electrolysers also grew faster in 2023,although the gains were not as dramatic.Existing capacity for wind could deliver nearly 50%of NZE Scenario needs in 2030,while announced projects could meet a further 12%.Meanwhile,capacity additions for heat pump manufacturing slowed due to stagnation in the majority of leading markets.Existing capacity could deliver only around one-third of 2030 needs in the NZE Scenario though this could change quickly given the short lead times typical of capacity expansions in this industry.Geographic concentration in manufacturing looks set to remain high for most clean energy technologies China,the United States and the European Union together account for around 80%to 90%of manufacturing capacity for solar PV,wind,battery,electrolyser and Advancing Clean Technology Manufacturing Executive summary An Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report PAGE|9 I EA.CC BY 4.0.heat pump manufacturing.Little change to this overall concentration is foreseen to 2030,even if all announced projects come to fruition.China alone accounts for more than 80%of global solar PV module manufacturing capacity and 95%for wafers.This looks unlikely to change significantly this decade,with the country set to match or exceed the capacity additions planned in other countries like the United States and India.For battery cell manufacturing,the situation is somewhat different:Planned capacity additions in Europe and the United States look set to reduce Chinas present share of global capacity,with both regions reaching around a 15%share by 2030 if all announced projects are realised.In Europe and the United States,announced battery cell manufacturing capacity is sufficient to meet the 2030 domestic deployment needs associated with their own climate goals.The geographic concentration of manufacturing for wind,electrolysers and heat pumps also shows little change through 2030.Outside of the main producer countries,Central and South America account for a small share of global production of th