词条的战略冲击到WTO里对中国和外国公司.ppt

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,2020年5月29日星期五,#,09 十一月 2026,词条的战略冲击到WTO里对中国和外国公司,ContentPage,A.The macroeconomic impact of Chinas WTO entry 3,B.Automotive 11,C.Apparel&Textile 22,D.Pharmaceuticals36,E.Banking42,F.Securities and Asset Management48,G.Insurances52,presentation-CEMS-x,A.The macroeconomic impact of Chinas WTO entry,presentation-CEMS-x,Already the tariffs have come down considerably in the last decade but they still differ strongly between industries,Weighted average tariff rates of manufactured products,Weighted average tariffs with and without WTO accession,Source:World Bank,1999,Oilseeds,Meat&livestock,Dairy,Other food,Beverages&tobacco,Textiles,Apparel,Wood&paper,Petrochemicals,Metals,Automobiles,Other manu.,Total manu.,Total,Without,With,presentation-CEMS-x,The impact of Chinas WTO entry has a macroeconomic as well as industry-specific microeconomic impact,Measures,Tariff reductions,Abolishment of non-tariff barriers,Quotas(imp./exp.),Licenses,Local content requirements,Distribution restrictions,Investment restrictions,etc.,Introduction of legal protection,Copyrights,Auti-dumping,Microeconomic impact,More competitors,Price pressure,New sourcing strategies,lower factor cost,More product variety,Increasing productivity,restructuring,Concentration process in some industries,Macroeconomic impact,More import&export,Accelerated growth of GDP,Accelerated growth of income(EDP/cap.)and wealth/cap,More foreign investment,Employment increase/decrease,Structural change towards more competitiveness,presentation-CEMS-x,Trading short term pain against long term gain is a walk on the wire,Short term pain,Long term gain,Source:Dev.&Res.Ctr.Of the State Connect,Goldman Buck,World Bank,Corporate,profits,(ROI),Employ-ment,Social,capital,GDP,Wealth,Trade,Foreign Investment,(direct),Price&quality competition,Decrease of profit margins,Increase in bankruptcies,1%additional growth p.a.,34%until 2010,High loss of labor/jobs in some industries(e.g.agriculture,automotive),but new jobs created in other industries(e.g.apparel),Increase of skilled labor,Rural-urban discrepancy in wealth and income(+4.6%p.a./2.1%p.a.),1.15%additional GDP/cap p.a.60%of population 6000 USD income by 2010,1.7%additional export growth p.a.,1.3%additional import growth p.a.,50bn annually,presentation-CEMS-x,The macroeconomic impact of Chinas accession to the WTO will be especially strong in apparel,automobiles and electronics,Some categories as example,Without accession,With accession,Without accession,With accession,Without accession,With accession,Foodgrains,Other agriculture,Beverages/tobacco,Extractive industries,Textiles,Wearing apparel,Petrochemicals,Metals,Automobiles,Electronics,Utilities,Trade/transport,Total,13.11,9.65,4.66,7.59,10.37,6.87,4.71,5.19,1.80,2.56,2.51,2.38,3.18,18.30,14.71,6.86,11.65,13.23,8.57,7.10,8.42,3.47,4.41,3.64,3.49,4.95,18.10,14.44,4.45,11.25,13.75,18.40,6.68,7.95,1.05,4.66,3.53,3.43,4.82,0.30,2.30,2.49,1.68,8.19,19.52,2.54,3.37,0.13,4.96,5.85,1.70,3.70,0.18,0.74,0.86,0.16,8.34,18.23,2.81,4.85,0.45,7.68,5.01,2.43,4.58,0.20,0.79,0.88,0.20,10.17,43.95,3.22,5.93,0.77,9.48,5.74,2.70,6.34,5.87,2.59,0.85,1.49,13.14,0.97,3.91,4.11,1.85,3.48,1.12,1.89,3.21,15.78,8.18,1.23,8.14,15.83,0.97,4.60,5.08,1.72,4.92,1.65,2.27,4.75,15.27,8.73,14.42,7.87,22.30,3.19,5.18,5.80,7.42,5.60,1.41,2.05,6.14,Table 10.Output,Exports and Imports as a Share of the World Economy,Output,Exports,Imports,1995,2005,1995,2005,1995,2005,Source:,World Bank analysis 2000,presentation-CEMS-x,With some dramatic consequences for employment(1),Source:World Bank and Dev.Res.Ctr.of the State Council,Employment of skilled labor growth:19952005,Foodgrains,Meat&livestock,Beverages/tobacco,Extractive industries,Wearing apparel,Without accession to WTO,With accession to WTO,29.11,30.25,69.82,65.29,-32.85,2.88,60.55,62.95,116.46,0.21,Metals,Automobiles,Electronics,Other manufactures,Business/finance,23.04,26.55,50.59,36.54,39.91,42.18,25.52,24.8,-48.11,48.07,presentation-CEMS-x,With some dramatic consequences for employment(2),Source:World Bank,1999,Jobs lost/newly created(in m),Commerce,Apparel&,Textile,CoHon,Wheat,Rice,Automotive,presentation-CEMS-x,Elect.media telecom,Media publishers,1)Fast moving consumer goods,HIGH,MEDIUM,LOW,Low,High,Low,High,Degree of globalization,Protectionist barriers today,Construction,Pharmaceuticals,Consumer electronics/durables,Branded,FMCG,1),(,e.g.Coke),Apparel,Automotive,Agricultural products,Trans-portation,Commodity steel,Protectionist barriers,Tariffs in%,Quota licenses,Investment restrictions -equity -regional,Degree of globalization,Market share of global brands,Production relocation costs in%of total turnover,Domestic companies in global industries which enjoyed high protection will suffer most,Impact,presentation-CEMS-x,B.Automotive,presentation-CEMS-x,In the year 2010 China will be the largest truck market in Asia and passenger car demand will have grown to 1.6m cars,2000,2004,2009,2000,2004,2009,hi price,mid price,low price,+10%p.a.,+14%,p.a.,640,960,1,650,150,150,250,+0%p.a.,+10%,p.a.,heavy,medium,light,Source:Daimler Chrysler,RBP assumptions,130,210,500,430,650,1,000,80,100,150,Passenger cars,Trucks,presentation-CEMS-x,Source:China Passenger Car Prospect 2001,Roland Berger Strategy Consultants,Santana,1),Jetta,1),Total sales volume by user,2000,Government cars,Business cars,Private cars,Taxi,Taxi,Business cars,Private cars,1):Santana and Jetta make up for 50%of passenger cars in 2000,In%of total,In%of total,Private buyers are becoming the ultimate market driver,presentation-CEMS-x,The contracted cuts in duties and of non-tariff barriers are considerable,Reduction of tariffs,Abolishment of non-tariff barriers,Immediate increase of,import quotas,to 6 bn US$,growing+15%p.a until elimination in 2005,Abolishment of special taxes and,license system,for imported cars,Abolishment of,“index”system,and any restrictions in preduct policy(type,category model)two years after accession,Abolishment of,local content,restrictions,Abolishment of any restrictions to operate an own,sales and maintenance,network from 2003 onwards,Abolishment of,foreign ownership restrictions,and value level for automotive JVs to be approved will increase from 30 mil US$to 150 mil US$,Introduction of financing options,e.g.,leasing,operated by foreign non-bank institutions under Chinese regulations upon accession,Source:US-Chamber of Commerce,Car-manufacturers,Component suppliers,01,03,04,05,06,02,%,00,100,00,02,03,04,05,06,01,10%,presentation-CEMS-x,A further decrease of car prices is predictable,100,200,400,800,1,600,3,200,100,150,200,250,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,2003,Price RMB 000,Until 2003 price will be below RMB 80,000,2000,=120,000RMB,Cumulated Production,Source:RB calculation,Volkswagen production figures,Volume000,Example:VW-Santana GLS,Slope 19%,presentation-CEMS-x,Small scale production is a mayor reason for the low efficiency and profitability of Chinas car manufactures,1997,1998,1999,2000,VW Santana,VW Santana,231,TAIC Daihatsu,100,VW Jetta,76,Chongqing Suzuki50,Dongfeng Citroen,40,Others,Buick 20,Guangzhou Honda 10,Source:China Infobank,Market share of car manufactures 1999,production in 1000 units,50,40,30,49,40,35,550,Market Share,%,presentation-CEMS-x,TAIC Charade 2000,Nanya Palio,Yunque,Changan Lingyang,Changhe,Qinchuan Zhonghua,Changan Alto,TAIC Charade,Geely Haoqing,Retail price,1,000 RMB,Engine,l,Mini,Standard,(Economy),Lower-medium,High-end,0.6,0.8,1.0,1.2,1.4,1.6,1.8,2.0,2.5,3.0,Qinchuan Xiaofuxin,Existing models and new launches,2001,Source:Roland Berger Strategy Consultants,Upper-medium,:New launchesExisting model,This development trend has been anticipated by carmakers through new product launches,BMW 3 series,SAW Bluebird,Brilliance Zhonghua,Honda Accord 2.0,VW Audi A6 Turbo,VW Passat,Citroen Picasso,Mazda Premacy,VW Santana 2000,Citroen EM,VW Bora,VW Jetta,Renault Scenic,Dingo,Ford Ikon,VW Santana GL,GM Sail,SAIC Cherry,Yuejin Encore/unique,VW Polo,Citroen DC,KIA Pride,Toyota Vitz,Geely,Toyota Platz,FAW Red Flag,GM Buick,Honda Accord,VW Audi A6,presentation-CEMS-x,Installed capacity and its enlargement for passenger car 1000 units,Installed,Capacity,Production,(2000),Utilization,(%),Planned,Enlargement(yr),Model,Santana,Passat,Polo,Jetta,Audi A6,Bora,Citroen,Alto,Accord,Buick,Sail(compact car),Vitz/Yaris,Daihatsu Charade,Premacy(minivan),Ikon,Cherokee,Geely,Cherry,Encore/Unique,Palio,Red Flag,BMW 3 or 5 series,Zhonghua,VW,Peugjeot,Suzuki,Honda,GM,Toyota,Mazda,Ford,Daimller Chrysler,Jili,SAIC,Nanya,FAW,BMW,Brilliance,Total,Product Site,Shanghai(SVW),Shanghai(SVW),Shanghai(SVW),Changchun(FAW),Changchun(FAW),Changchun(FAW),Wuhan,Chongqin(CMC),Guangzhou,Shanghai(SGM),Shanghai(SGM),Tianjin(TAIC),Tianjin,Hainan(FAW),Chongqing(Changan MC),Beijing,Zhejiang,Anhui,Nanjing,Changchun,Shenyang,Shenyang,300,60,0,150,30,0,120,80,30,100,0,0,150,-,-,100,100,60,60,50,20,0,30,ca.1,440,250,30,0,90,17,0,54,53,30,30,0,0,82,-,-,5,7,0,5,0,13,0,0,678,83%,50%,-,60%,57%,-,45%,66%,100%,30%,-,-,55%,-,-,5%,7%,-,8%,-,65%,-,-,50%over the next 510 years,Carmakers,Pressure for cost reductions,Introduce new models,Reconsider global sourcing,Pressure for less suppliers(modules),Competitors,New entries of global suppliers,Lower prices aggressively,Increase quality,presentation-CEMS-x,C.Apparel&Textile,presentation-CEMS-x,The WTO agreement will open the developed markets to apparel and textile imports from China,Tariff reduction,Successive increase of quota until abolishment,Safeguards against sudden trading imbalances,China lowers average import tariffs from 25.4 to 11.7%,Developed countries lower their import tariffs accordingly,Phasing out of import quotas of other WTO-members until 2005,Phasing out of export quotas of China,Antidumping regulations,Safeguard mechanisms in case of sudden imbalances,presentation-CEMS-x,The quota will be gradually abolished,Quota abolishment,Explanation,Source:www.wto.org-ATC,Roland Berger Strategy Consultants,Timetable-quota abolishment,Stage,Implementation,date,Minimum,integration rate,Additional growth rate,1,2,3,4,1.Jan,1995,1.Jan,1998,1.Jan,2002,1.Jan,2005,16%,17%,18%,16%,25%,27%,Full integration of textile and apparel quota,Integration means removal of textile and apparel products from quota coverage thus to be integrated into the ATC(agreement of textile and apparel),Additional growth rate refers to the requirement of ATC to ask WTO members to increase the quota growth rate for major supplying countries.The methodology is to add an annual additional growth rate on the historical quota growth rate.,presentation-CEMS-x,Sourcing structure of major importing countries 1999%,USA,EU,Japan,Others,Others,Eastern Europe,Europe,(Esp.Turkey),China,Rest of Asia,1),Others,Others,The Americas,China,Rest of Asia,1),Rest of Asia,1),China,EU,USA,Japan,CAGR,96-99,+2.1%,+10.7%,-5.9%,Major importing countries/regions 1999,%,Major importing regions and supplier regions,Source:WTO,Roland Berger Strategy Consultants,1):Hong Kong included in rest of Asia:EU 5.2%;USA 7.7%;and Japan 0.6%,Asia is the biggest supplier for US and Japan second biggest for Europe,presentation-CEMS-x,Value of clothing imports into Japan US$bn,19,672,16,727,14,690,16,367,China,Market Share of China,59%,63%,65%,70%,Source:WTO,Roland Berger Strategy Consultants,China has increased its market share in Japan to 70%despite a shrinking market,presentation-CEMS-x,Based on production cost China is competitive on a global scale,Costs of given minutes for clothing production$,Based on a survey of KSA for a model production site including,Wages and auxilliary wages,Productivity,Working days and time,Costs for management and administration,Overheads,Cheaper production cost than China,Source:KSA,Roland Berger Strategy Consultants,America,Asia,Western Europe+Mediterrean,Eastern Europe,U.S.0.228,Costa Rica0.123,El Salvador0.105,Dominican Republic0.103,Jamaica0.099,Guatemala0.092,Honduras0.092,Mexico0.091,Hong Kong0.176,Taiwan0.163,Korea0.136,Pakistan0.104,Malaysia0.102,Philippines0.080,Sri Lanka0.079,Thailand0.079,China0.079,Indonesia0.078,India0.076,Vietnam0.075,Cambodia0.075,Germany0.358,Italy0.291,France0.262,U.K.0.218,Israel0.188,Spain0.178,Greece0.178,Portugal0.158,Turkey0.117,Tunisia0.099,Morocco0.094,Egypt0.075,Slovenia0.167,Poland0.127,Croatia0.126,Czech Republic0.121,Hungary0.116,Estonia0.113,Lithuania0.107,Slovakia0.104,Latvia0.097,Bulgaria0.091,Romania0.090,Russia0.086,Ukraine0.082,Usbekistan0.079,Moldavia0.077,presentation-CEMS-x,Volume,distance of price and growth in China relative to average of EU imports,Source:Roland Berger Strategy Consultants,CITH,CIRFS,European Commission,Note:Bubble size represents market share by volume of total EU imports in this category,Relative priceto average%,Relative growthto average%,Trousers,Womensovercoats,Womenssuits,Mens shirts,T-shirts,Pullover,Womens blouses,Womens dresses,Womens skirts,Total EU import growth of selected items,CAGR 1993-99%,T-Shirts+9.2%,Pullovers+13.5%,Trousers+10.5%,Mens shirts+0.7%,Womens blouses+6.2%,Womens overcoats+8.9%,Womens dresses+3.9%,Womens skirts+10.2%,Womens suits+4.0%,High quota cost in relation to product price,In the EU,China has strong competitive advantages in womens suits,overcoats and skirts sector while pullovers and T-shirts are more expensive than the average,presentation-CEMS-x,China has based on its strengths the potential to increase its market share in Europe,Key findings“Supplier country China”,Source:Roland Berger Strategy Consultants interviews,Service,Especially the,Southern part of China,demonstrates a competitive advantage in terms of,Reliability,compared to the Americas,Creativity,compared to Central/Eastern Europe,Lead time,China is,naturally,(sea freight)facing a,disadvantage,concerning,lead-time,compared to the Americas(US)and Eastern/South Europe(EU).,Increasing pressure,on,time to market,based on shorter collection-cycles is driving less price sensitive customers to also use,airfreight,Distance to raw material markets,China,is,expanding,its,competence,in,fabric production,especially in technical fabrics and is therefore building up a competitive advantage towards other Asian countries without fabric production or poor fabric production(e.g.Sri Lanka,Cambodia),Cost position,Based on production costs,China,is,competitive,on a,global scale,.However,relative,high quota,costs in low-priced product categories,and the,strong dollar,have partly resulted in a shift in sourcing to the Americas and Eastern Europe,Production know how/quality,China,is,broadly accepted,as a country with,excellent production know-how,across all product categories with,core competence,in,coats,suits,and,shirts,1,2,3,4,5,presentation-CEMS-x,The impact of the WTO agreement differs strongly between the different market participants,Textile Manufacturers,More exports to China,Increasing investments in China,Few competitive advantages(capital intensive),Apparel Manufacturers,Strong increase in exports to Europ