2023年+AI+的现状：生成式+AI+的突破之年.pdf

As organizations rapidly deploy generative AI tools,survey respondents expect significant effects on their industries and workforces.The state of AI in 2023:Generative AIs breakout yearAugust 2023The state of AI in 2023:Generative AIs breakout yearThe latest annual McKinsey Global Survey on the current state of AI confirms the explosive growth of generative AI (gen AI)tools.Less than a year after many of these tools debuted,one-third of our survey respondents say their organizations are using gen AI regularly in at least one business function.Amid recent advances,AI has risen from a topic relegated to tech employees to a focus of company leaders:nearly one-quarter of surveyed C-suite executives say they are personally using gen AI tools for work,and more than one-quarter of respondents from companies using AI say gen AI is already on their boards agendas.Whats more,40 percent of respondents say their organizations will increase their investment in AI overall because of advances in gen AI.The findings show that these are still early days for managing gen AIrelated risks,with less than half of respondents saying their organizations are mitigating even the risk they consider most relevant:inaccuracy.The organizations that have already embedded AI capabilities have been the first to explore gen AIs potential,and those seeing the most value from more traditional AI capabilitiesa group we call AI high performersare already outpacing others in their adoption of gen AI tools.1The expected business disruption from gen AI is significant,and respondents predict meaningful changes to their workforces.They anticipate workforce cuts in certain areas and large reskilling efforts to address shifting talent needs.Yet while the use of gen AI might spur the adoption of other AI tools,we see few meaningful increases in organizations adoption of these technologies.The percent of organizations adopting any AI tools has held steady since 2022,and adoption remains concentrated within a small number of business functions.1 We define AI high performers as organizations that,according to respondents,attribute at least 20 percent of their EBIT to AI adoption.1The state of AI in 2023:Generative AIs breakout yearThe findings from the surveywhich was in the field in mid-April 2023show that,despite gen AIs nascent public availability,experimentation with the tools is already relatively common,and respondents expect the new capabilities to transform their industries.Gen AI has captured interest across the business population:individuals across regions,industries,and seniority levels are using gen AI for work and outside of work.Seventy-nine percent of all respondents say theyve had at least some exposure to gen AI,either for work or outside of work,and 22percent say they are regularly using it in their own work.While reported use is quite similar across seniority levels,it is highest among respondents working in the technology sector and those in North America.Its early days still,but use of gen AI is already widespread2The state of AI in 2023:Generative AIs breakout yearRegularly usefor workRegularly use for workand outside of workRegularly useoutside of workHave tried atleast onceNoexposureDont knowAsiaPacifcDeveloping marketsEuropeGreater ChinaNorth AmericaAdvanced industriesBusiness,legal,and professional servicesConsumer goods/retailEnergy and materialsFinancial servicesHealthcare,pharma,and medical productsTechnology,media,and telecomC-suite executivesSenior managersMidlevel managersBorn in 1964 or earlierBorn 196580Born 198196MenWomen4910961811141022192315141919201118133634454638336335776861452434734741405041443715212619141591116118161019161312151817178107161416181519234424235131620675171822181711933303736211824812194316637461615By ofce locationBy industryBy job titleBy ageBy gender identity18Reported exposure to generative AI tools,%of respondentsNote:Figures may not sum to 100%,because of rounding.In AsiaPacifc,n=164;in Europe,n=515;in North America,n=392;in Greater China(includes Hong Kong and Taiwan),n=337;and in developing markets(includes India,Latin America,and Middle East and North Africa),n=276.For advanced industries(includes automotive and assembly,aerospace and defense,advanced electronics,and semiconductors),n=96;for business,legal,and professional services,n=215;for consumer goods and retail,n=128;for energy and materials,n=96;for fnancial services,n=248;for healthcare,pharma,and medical products,n=130;and for technology,media,and telecom,n=244.For C-suite respondents,n=541;for senior managers,n=437;and for middle managers,n=339.For respondents born in 1964 or earlier,n=143;for respondents born between 1965 and 1980,n=268;and for respondents born between 1981 and 1996,n=80.Age details were not available for all respondents.For respondents identifying as men,n=1,025;for respondents identifying as women,n=156.The survey sample also included respondents who identifed as“nonbinary”or“other”but not a large enough number to be statistically meaningful.Source:McKinsey Global Survey on AI,1,684 participants at all levels of the organization,April 1121,2023Respondents across regions,industries,and seniority levels say they are already using generative AI tools.McKinsey&CompanyOrganizations,too,are now commonly using gen AI.One-third of all respondents say their organizations are already regularly using generative AI in at least one functionmeaning that 60percent of organizations with reported AI adoption are using gen AI.Whats more,40 percent of those reporting AI adoption at their organizations say their companies expect to invest more in AI overall thanks to generative AI,and 28 percent say generative AI use is already on their boards agenda.The most commonly reported business functions using these newer tools are the same as those in which AI use is most common overall:marketing and sales,product and service development,and service operations,such as customer care and back-office support.This suggests that organizations are pursuing these new tools where the most value is.In our previous research,these three areas,along with software engineering,showed the potential to deliver about 75 percent of the total annual value from generative AI use cases.3The state of AI in 2023:Generative AIs breakout yearIn these early days,expectations for gen AIs impact are high:three-quarters of all respondents expect gen AI to cause significant or disruptive change in the nature of their industrys competition in the next three years.Survey respondents working in the technology and financial-services industries are the most likely to expect disruptive change from gen AI.Our previous research shows that,while all industries are indeed likely to see some degree of disruption,the level of impact is likely to vary.2 Industries relying most heavily on knowledge work are likely to see more disruptionand potentially reap more value.While our estimates suggest that tech companies,unsurprisingly,are poised to see the highest impact from gen AIadding value equivalent to as much as 9 percent of global industry revenueknowledge-based industries such as banking(up to 5 percent),pharmaceuticals and medical products(also up to 5 percent),and education(up to 4 percent)could experience significant effects as well.By contrast,manufacturing-based industries,such as aerospace,automotives,and advanced electronics,could experience less disruptive effects.This stands in contrast to the impact of previous technology waves that affected manufacturing the most and is due to gen AIs strengths in language-based activities,as opposed to those requiring physical labor.Share of respondents reporting that their organization is regularly using generative AI in given function,%1Most regularly reported generative AI use cases within function,%of respondents1Questions were asked of respondents who said their organizations have adopted AI in at least 1 business function.The data shown were rebased to represent all respondents.Source:McKinsey Global Survey on AI,1,684 participants at all levels of the organization,April 1121,2023The most commonly reported uses of generative AI tools are in marketing and sales,product and service development,and service operations.McKinsey&CompanyMarketing and salesProduct and/or service developmentService operationsCrafting frst drafts of text documentsPersonalized marketingSummarizing text documentsIdentifying trends in customer needsDrafting technical documentsCreating new product designsUse of chatbots(eg,for customer service)Forecasting service trends or anomalies Creating frst drafts of documents988754655Marketingand sales14Product and/or servicedevelopment13Serviceoperations10Risk4Strategy andcorporatefnance4HR3Supply chainmanagement3Manufacturing22“The economic potential of generative AI:The next productivity frontier,”McKinsey,June 14,2023.4The state of AI in 2023:Generative AIs breakout yearMcKinsey commentaryAlex Singla Senior partner and global leader of QuantumBlack,AI by McKinseyIts amazing how quickly the conversation around generative AI has evolved.Just a few months ago,the conversation in the C-suite was pretty rudimentary,focused on trying to understand what it was and seeing what was hype versus what was reality.Now in just about six months,business leaders are having much more sophisticated conversations.As we can see from the survey results,almost a third of companies are using generative AI in at least one business function.This underscores the degree to which companies understand and accept that generative AI is viable in business.The next question will be how companies will take the next step,and whether generative AI will follow the same pattern we observed with AI more generally,where adoption has plateaued at around the 50 percent mark.We see from the data that the promise of generative AI is leading almost half of companies already using AI to plan on increasing their investments in AI,driven in part by the understanding that broader capabilities are needed to take full advantage of generative AI.Taking that next step,where generative AI can go from experiment to business engine,and ensuring a strong return on the investment requires companies to tackle a broad array of issues.Those include identifying the specific opportunities for generative AI in the organization,what the governance and operating model should be,how to best manage third parties(such as cloud and large language model providers),what is needed to manage the wide range of risks,understanding the implications on people and the tech stack,and being clear about how to find the balance between banking near-term gains and developing the long-term foundations needed to scale.These are complex issues,but they are the key to unlocking the really significant pools of value out there.5The state of AI in 2023:Generative AIs breakout yearGenerative AIrelated risks that organizations consider relevant and are working to mitigate,%of respondents11Asked only of respondents whose organizations have adopted Al in at least 1 function.For both risks considered relevant and risks mitigated,n=913.Source:McKinsey Global Survey on AI,1,684 participants at all levels of the organization,April 1121,2023Inaccuracy,cybersecurity,and intellectual-property infringement are the most-cited risks of generative AI adoption.McKinsey&CompanyInaccuracyCybersecurityIntellectual-property infringement Regulatory complianceExplainabilityPersonal/individual privacyWorkforce/labor displacementEquity and fairness Organizational reputationNational securityPhysical safetyEnvironmental impact Political stabilityNone of the above56Organization considers risk relevantOrganization working to mitigate risk534645393934312914111110132382528182013161646528Responses show many organizations not yet addressing potential risks from gen AIAccording to the survey,few companies seem fully prepared for the widespread use of gen AIor the business risks these tools may bring.Just 21 percent of respondents reporting AI adoption say their organizations have established policies governing employees use of gen AI technologies in their work.And when we asked specifically about the risks of adopting gen AI,few respondents say their companies are mitigating the most commonly cited risk with gen AI:inaccuracy.Respondents cite inaccuracy more frequently than both cybersecurity and regulatory compliance,which were the most common risks from AI overall in previous surveys.Just 32 percent say theyre mitigating inaccuracy,a smaller percentage than the 38percent who say they mitigate cybersecurity risks.Interestingly,this figure is significantly lower than the percentage of respondents who reported mitigating AI-related cybersecurity last year(51 percent).Overall,much as weve seen in previous years,most respondents say their organizations are not addressing AI-related risks.6The state of AI in 2023:Generative AIs breakout yearMcKinsey commentaryAlexander Sukharevsky Senior partner and global leader of QuantumBlack,AI by McKinseyThere is broad awareness about the risks associated with generative AI.But at the same time,the prevailing anxiety and fear is making it challenging for leaders to effectively address the risks.As our latest survey shows,just a little over 20 percent of companies have risk policies in place for generative AI.Those policies tend to focus on protecting a companys proprietary information,such as data,knowledge,and other intellectual property.Those are critical,but weve found that many of these risks can be addressed by making changes in the businesss technology architecture that reflect established policies.The real trap,however,is that companies look at the risk too narrowly.There is a significant range of riskssocial,humanitarian,sustainabilitythat companies need to pay attention to as well.In fact,the unintended consequences of generative AI are more likely to create issues for the world than the doomsday scenarios that some people espouse.Companies that are approaching generative AI most constructively are experimenting with and using it while having a structured process in place to identify and address these broader risks.They are putting in place beta users and specific teams that think about how generative AI applications can go off the rails to better anticipate some of those consequences.They are also working with the best and most creative people in the business to define the best outcomes for both the organization and for society more generally.Being deliberate,structured,and holistic about understanding the nature of the new risksand opportunitiesemerging is crucial to the responsible and productive growth of generative AI.7The state of AI in 2023:Generative AIs breakout yearThe survey results show that AI high performersthat is,organizations where respondents say at least 20 percent of EBIT in 2022 was attributable to AI useare going all in on artificial intelligence,both with gen AI and more tradit